Translating Humour - The Problems Of Translating Terry Pratchett
DSD-INT 2015 - Translating science to action - Paul Davies
-
Upload
delftsoftwaredays -
Category
Software
-
view
318 -
download
0
Transcript of DSD-INT 2015 - Translating science to action - Paul Davies
![Page 1: DSD-INT 2015 - Translating science to action - Paul Davies](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58769bda1a28abab2f8b7f2f/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
© Crown copyright Met Office
Translating science to action
Haiyan to Hagupit
Paul Davies, Chief Meteorologist
![Page 2: DSD-INT 2015 - Translating science to action - Paul Davies](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58769bda1a28abab2f8b7f2f/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Typhoon Haiyan
![Page 3: DSD-INT 2015 - Translating science to action - Paul Davies](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58769bda1a28abab2f8b7f2f/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
© Crown copyright Met Office
WMO Fact Finding Mission : summary and conclusions
Going the extra mile – can science deliver??
“I would rather die with my refrigerator than let it be taken by a storm surge”
STAKEHOLDER MEETING, MANILA 2014
![Page 4: DSD-INT 2015 - Translating science to action - Paul Davies](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58769bda1a28abab2f8b7f2f/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
© Crown copyright Met Office
WMO Fact Finding Mission : summary and conclusions
Why did many people stay in their homes and did not move to safety?
Possible reasons:
• Did not know of the danger
• They knew about it but chose to ignore it
• Many people didn’t understand the science such as what is meant by ‘storm surge’ or how far the water would go
• Some people moved to evacuation centres which turned out to be in the inundation area – some died there
![Page 5: DSD-INT 2015 - Translating science to action - Paul Davies](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58769bda1a28abab2f8b7f2f/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Typhoon -> Hazards
![Page 6: DSD-INT 2015 - Translating science to action - Paul Davies](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58769bda1a28abab2f8b7f2f/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Typhoon -> Primary Lightning
![Page 7: DSD-INT 2015 - Translating science to action - Paul Davies](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58769bda1a28abab2f8b7f2f/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Typhoon -> Secondary Storm Surge
![Page 8: DSD-INT 2015 - Translating science to action - Paul Davies](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58769bda1a28abab2f8b7f2f/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Typhoon -> Secondary Storm Surge
![Page 9: DSD-INT 2015 - Translating science to action - Paul Davies](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58769bda1a28abab2f8b7f2f/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Typhoon -> Secondary Flood inundation
![Page 10: DSD-INT 2015 - Translating science to action - Paul Davies](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58769bda1a28abab2f8b7f2f/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Typhoon -> Tertiary Health and increased vulnerability
![Page 11: DSD-INT 2015 - Translating science to action - Paul Davies](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58769bda1a28abab2f8b7f2f/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
© Crown copyright Met Office
Typhoon Hagupit:
![Page 12: DSD-INT 2015 - Translating science to action - Paul Davies](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58769bda1a28abab2f8b7f2f/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
(1) Observations
(3) Forecast winds, rainfall, temperatures…
Big Data, Big Science
(2) Models
Each day the Met Office processes and stores 106 million observations, completes 20 quadrillion (1015) calculations, archives 10 Tera (1012)
bytes of model data and produces 4 million forecasts per day
![Page 13: DSD-INT 2015 - Translating science to action - Paul Davies](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58769bda1a28abab2f8b7f2f/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Big Data, Big Science Each day the Met Office processes and stores 106 million observations,
completes 20 quadrillion (1015) calculations, archives 10 Tera (1012) bytes of model data and produces 4 million forecasts per day
![Page 14: DSD-INT 2015 - Translating science to action - Paul Davies](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58769bda1a28abab2f8b7f2f/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
“…bridging the Valley of Death…through effective
translation and application of science”
![Page 15: DSD-INT 2015 - Translating science to action - Paul Davies](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58769bda1a28abab2f8b7f2f/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
The 4.4 km
Typhoon Hagupit
Global (deterministic) 4.4 km downscaler (from determinsitic)
4.4 domain
![Page 16: DSD-INT 2015 - Translating science to action - Paul Davies](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58769bda1a28abab2f8b7f2f/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Typhoon Hagupit: Ensembles
![Page 17: DSD-INT 2015 - Translating science to action - Paul Davies](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58769bda1a28abab2f8b7f2f/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
TWO scenarios
1. Landfall not until Tuesday or later. Main hazards: Heavy rainfall, severe inland flooding and landslides. Probability 70%
2. Landfall later Saturday or early Sunday. Main Hazards: wind and storm surge. Probability 30%.
![Page 18: DSD-INT 2015 - Translating science to action - Paul Davies](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58769bda1a28abab2f8b7f2f/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Coping with Hurricanes/Typhoons
Weather and climate extremes
Weather analyses & forecast data
Hurricane track, size, & intensity
Implementation of evacuation &
recovery plans
Reducing risk & response scenarios
Mitigation strategies
Affected population & infrastructure,
disruption of services, damages due to wind
& water, etc.
Impact Estimation
Placing into situational context
Storm surge, flooding, inundated areas
Weather Translation to
hazards
Extraction of relevant information
to predict hazards
![Page 19: DSD-INT 2015 - Translating science to action - Paul Davies](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58769bda1a28abab2f8b7f2f/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Holistic approach to impact and risk
GEO-PHYSICAL HAZARD
EXPOSURE
VULNERABILITY
Socio-Economic IMPACT
QUANTIFYING
& REDUCING RISK
WEATHER & CLIMATE
EXTREMES
Major Uncertainty
Some progress, still a limiting factor
Considerable progress
![Page 20: DSD-INT 2015 - Translating science to action - Paul Davies](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58769bda1a28abab2f8b7f2f/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Advice on impacts
![Page 21: DSD-INT 2015 - Translating science to action - Paul Davies](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58769bda1a28abab2f8b7f2f/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
![Page 22: DSD-INT 2015 - Translating science to action - Paul Davies](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58769bda1a28abab2f8b7f2f/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)