Drivers of Housing Demand Preparing for the Impending Elder Boom A product of Nonprofit Knowledge...

Drivers of Housing DemandPreparing for the Impending Elder Boom

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Part Ia. Economic and Housing Trends

The New Orleans metro has weathered the recession relatively well, buffered by the stimulus of Katrina rebuilding investments.

Source: GNOCDC analysis of data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Percent change in nonfarm jobsAug. 2008 – Aug. 2011

Fewer jobs mean fewer people and more vacant housing.

Sources: GNOCDC analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Moody’s Analytics (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: CES, QCEW).

Population, jobs, and housing unitsNew Orleans metro

The New Orleans regional economy is still largely reliant on legacy industries.

Source: GNOCDC analysis of data from Moody's Analytics (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: CES, QCEW).

Regional “export” jobs for the 10 largest “export” specializationsNew Orleans 10-parish region

New Orleanians are feeling the impact of the Great Recession.

Sources: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from Census 2000 and American Community Survey single-year estimates for 2007 and 2010. Note: Reference dates for ACS estimates are the previous 12-month period, collected over a two-year period. n.s.= indicates change between 1999 and 2010 is not significant at 95% confidence interval.

Poverty ratefor the population for whom poverty status is determined

Home sales are slow in the city, but stable.

Source: GNOCDC analysis of data from the New Orleans Metropolitan Association of Realtors.Note: Data captured monthly and numbers finalized a year later.

Average monthly home sales, Jan. – Sep.New Orleans

New Orleans homeowners, even those without mortgages, have sharply higher housing costs since 2004.

Sources: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from American Community Survey 2004 and 2010. Note: Data are in 2010 inflation-adjusted dollars using the CPI-U-RS.

Median monthly housing costs for homeownersin 2010 inflation-adjusted dollars, Orleans Parish

Housing costs for homeowners include:

• Mortgage

• Taxes

• Insurance

• Utilities

35 percent of New Orleans homeowners are cost-burdened.

Source: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from American Community Survey 2010.n.s.=indicates difference from Orleans is not significant at 95% confidence interval.

Homeowners paying unaffordable housing costs30% or more of pre-tax income on housing, 2010

Renter costs spiked 37 percent since 2004.

Sources: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from American Community Survey 2004 and 2010.Note: Data are in 2010 inflation-adjusted dollars using the CPI-U-RS.

Monthly housing costs for rentersin 2010 inflation-adjusted dollars, Orleans Parish

Housing costs for renters include:

• Rent

• Utilities

Renter costs in New Orleans are well above similar cities.

Source: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the American Community Survey 2010.n.s.=indicates difference from Orleans is not significant at 95% confidence interval.

Rent comparison across citiesmedian gross monthly housing costs for rentals of any size, 2010

New Orleans renters pay 5 percent more than the U.S. average for housing from incomes that are 20 percent lower.

Source: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the American Community Survey 2010.

Annual housing costs vs. incomefor renters, 2010

Due to a prevalence of low-wage jobs, Orleans rentersare more likely to pay at least half their income on housing than New York renters.

Source: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the American Community Survey 2010.n.s.=indicates difference from Orleans is not significant at 95% confidence interval.

Percent of renters paying unaffordable housing costs50% or more of income on housing, 2010

Part Ib. Demographic Trends

New Orleans metro population

Source: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the decennial census.

The baby boomers are like a demographic tsunami.



As the baby boomers age, the age structure of the metro area has shifted.

Trends and projections in the share of population by age groupNew Orleans metro

Sources: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the decennial census, and authors’ projections.

As the baby boomers grew up and birth rates fell, the mix of household types dramatically changed in the city…


Share of total households by typeNew Orleans

…as well as in the suburbs.


Share of total households by typeRest of the New Orleans metro

Households with children are more likely to live in the suburbs, while singles <65 are more likely to live in New Orleans, and individuals 65+ are equally likely to live in the city or suburbs.


Share of metro households living in the city by type of household, 2010

Another significant demographic shift is the influx of Latinos to the New Orleans metro, the majority of whom settled outside the city in suburban parishes.


Hispanic population growthNew Orleans and the rest of the New Orleans metro

Were it not for the large influx of Latinos and Asians, the age structure of the New Orleans metro would be even older. The future of the New Orleans area will be decidedly more diverse.


Elderly, working-age adults, and children in the New Orleans metro by race and ethnicity, 2010

65 + years 20-64 years Under 20 years

Part II. Impending Housing Demand

142,000

residents 65 years+



191,000

residents 65 years+

Source: Authors’ projections.


233,000

residents 65 years+

Source: Authors’ projections.


There will be a sizable jump in the metro population 65 years and older by 2020.

Source: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the decennial census, and authors’ projections.

Trends and projections in the population 65 years and older New Orleans metro

This is important because as adults reach retirement age and older, they may find themselves considering a move.

Source: GNOCDC analysis of data from the American Community Survey 2010.

Living in a different house one year ago Share of total population by age, 2010

By 2020, the elder boom will dramatically change New Orleans’ household mix.

Source: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the decennial census, and authors’ projections. Note: For a downloadable spreadsheet of household and population projections for Scenario 1, and Technical Appendices with information about our methodology, be sure to visit www.gnocdc.org.

Projected change in number of households by type for three scenarios New Orleans

In New Orleans, a large and growing number of adults 65 and older (living at home) have a moderate or serious disability.

Sources: Urban Institute analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the Decennial Census 2010, American Community Survey 2010, and authors’ projections.Note: See the Technical Appendices for more details on our methodology.

Adults 65 and older who are moderately or seriously disabled and living at homeNew Orleans

By 2030, a larger number of older adults in New Orleans will reach 75 years and older, at which point a larger number of elderly will likely have disabilities.

Source: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the decennial census, and authors’ projections.

Projections in the population 65 years and older New Orleans

New Orleans’ elders are much more likely to be impoverished than elders in surrounding suburbs and across the nation.

Source: GNOCDC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from American Community Survey 2010.n.s.=indicates difference from Orleans is not significant at 95% confidence interval.

Poverty and twice poverty ratesin the population 65 years and older, 2010

Many baby boomers grew up in the suburbs.


Density of occupied housing units New Orleans metro

By 2010, 69 percent of all households in the metro lived in suburban parishes, and only 31 percent lived in the city.


Occupied housing units by parishNew Orleans metro

Many baby boomers grew up in the suburbs and will likely remain there, if possible. But decisionmakers can strive to retain current residents in the city as they age.


Share of metro population living in the city by age group, 2010

Older New Orleanians are more likely be homeowners and live in single family homes built before 1950. Helping older people stay in their homes is a great preventer of future blight.

Source: GNOCDC/ Urban Institute analysis of American Community Survey Public Use Microdata Series, 2009. Note: These percentages are derived from authors’ analysis of American Community Survey 2009 microdata in order to capture housing characteristics not included in the Census 2010. As a result, the homeownership rate published above for all households varies slightly from the Census 2010.

Select household characteristics New Orleans, 2009

Part III. What demographic shifts suggest for policy and programs

Attracting New Residents

• Create central portal to market neighborhoods and ease moves into the city.• Live Baltimore• Milwaukee city and nonprofits

• Think about the changing size and demographics of households when making development decisions.

Building Supports for Aging in PlaceAccessibility

• Repair assistance for low-income, older homeowners.

• Enforce Fair Housing accessibility requirements for rentals.

• Promote universal design.

Building Supports for Aging in PlaceSupport Services

• Assess health of in-home service sector.

• Map out availability and gaps in community supports (types of services provided, transportation access, cost, etc.).

Building Supports for Aging in PlaceAffordability

• Promote availability of programs to reduce housing costs.• City program to freeze assessed value • NOLA Wise for energy-efficiency

• Learn how state rules on Medicaid promote or hinder aging in place.

Understanding the Array of Specialized Senior Housing

Housing Type Units/beds Percent

Independent/Assisted Living 1,000 13%

Nursing Homes 5,000 63%

Continuing Care Retirement Comm. 2,000 25%

Total 8,000 100%

Sources: GNOCDC/ Urban Institute analysis of InfoUSA and Nursing Home Compare databases.

New Orleans metro

• Assuming current ratios, need 1,400 more specialized units or beds in the city by 2020.

• Mix of types could shift due to preferences or policies.

• Specialized housing is costly.• Median monthly rent: $3,620 for assisted living• Median monthly rent: $4,471 for semi-private

nursing home unit• CCRC down payment: $100,000 and up

Projecting the Future Demand for Specialized Senior Housing

Sources: GNOCDC/ Urban Institute analysis of InfoUSA and Nursing Home Compare and authors’ projections; Genworth Financial Inc., 2011

Senior Housing in New Orleans

• Senior housing data should be verified and tracked.

• Senior housing options could draw people to the city.

• Review zoning, regulations for siting.

• Re-purpose empty public buildings for senior housing.

Preserving the Role of Subsidized Housing for the Elderly

• Understand demand/supply of accessible housing and support services for public and assisted housing residents.

• HANO should assess whether goal of accessibility for 10 percent of new units is sufficient to meet upcoming needs.

• Louisiana Housing Corporation can establish set-asides for housing with services and prioritize rehab and reuse to reduce blight.

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go to www.gnocdc.org

Drivers of Housing Demand Preparing for the Impending Elder Boom A product of Nonprofit Knowledge...

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