[email protected]@leankanban.com @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. Presenter: David J. Anderson...

[email protected] @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.

Presenter:David J. AndersonCEO Lean Kanban

Inc.

Lean Kanban UKLondon

October 2013Release 1.0

Why Modern?Why now?

mailto:[email protected]


Modern in Music



Progressive but not Modern!



Modern



Modern in Art



Photography



Impressionism – a new beginning



Modern in Science



Newtonian physics was out and the era of Quantum Mechanics arrived

Werner Heisenberg

JamesClerk-Maxwell

Albert Einstein

Niels Bohr



The Drucker Challenge



Drucker’s Challenge in 1999



Where might a 50x improvement come from?

Delivered

Poolof

Ideas

F

H E

C A

I

Committed

ReadyFor

Delivery

GD

GYPB

DEMN

2 ∞

P1

AB

Lead Time

Ongoing

Development Testing

Done VerificationAcceptance3 3

Waiting Waiting WaitingWorking

* Hakan Forss, Lean Kanban France, Oct 2013** 2% reported by Zsolt Fabok, Lean Kanban France, Oct 2012

Working

∞∞

Flow efficiency measures the percentage of total lead time is spent actually adding value (or

knowledge) versus waitingFlow efficiency% = Work Time x 100%

Lead TimeFlow efficiencies of 1-5% are

commonly reported*, ** Multitasking means time spent in working columns is often waiting

time

Waiting



Modern Management



We stand on the verge of a revolution in modern management



Breakthroughs in Understanding humans



The Quantum Era of Management



New technologies enable a new form



Social Capital Reaps Rewards



The System & Environment Matter



Conclusion



The Form Must Change!



Thank you!



Presenter:David J. AndersonCEO Lean Kanban

Inc.

Lean Kanban UKLondon

October 2013Release 1.0

Kanbanand evolutionary management



Bruce Lee’s Journey in Martial Arts



Bruce Lee rejected traditional teaching and styles of Chinese martial arts



Snake

Monkey

Mantis

Tiger

Kung Fu Panda simplified the art to only four styles



There are in fact very many styles…



“Dry land swimming” provides a false sense of capability



Lee wanted to start from first principles and core concepts

*Apparently still called the Five Ways, there are actually now six **with the later inclusion of SAA**The fact that The Five Ways has six elements is evidence of evolution in action***Incorporated core ideas such as "center line" and single fluid motion from Wing Chun and parrying from Epee Fencing********Not a Chinese Martial Art and hence evidence of "no limitation as limitation"

Five* Ways of Attack***• Single Direct Attack (SDA)• Attack By Combination (ABC)• Progressive Indirect Attack

(PIA)• (Hand) Immobilization Attack

(HIA)• Attack by Drawing (ABD)• Single Angle Attack (SAA)



Lee’s approach still needed a name



Jeet Kune Do

Using no way as way

Having no limitation as limitation



Jeet Kune Do encourages development of a uniquely personal style

"absorb that which is useful“

discard the remainder



Training with an opponent provides the core feedback loop to drive adaptation



Kata are not adaptive



Martial Arts viewed through a Cynefin* Lens

Simple

ComplicatedComplex

Chaotic

Best Practice

Good PracticesEmergent Practices

Novel PracticesIndividual

Kata

PatternedStyles

Jeet KuneDo

*http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cynefin



Lee’s genius was recognizing hand-to-hand combat is an unordered problem



Motivation for the Kanban Method



Traditional Change is an A to B process

***either an internal process group or external consultants

CurrentProcess Future

Process

Defined

Designed

transition

* Value stream mapping, ** Theory of Constraints Thinking Processes



Change initiatives fail (even) more often than projects



Daniel Kahneman has given us a simple model for how we process information

Daniel Kahneman

System 1Sensory PerceptionPattern Matching

System 2Logical Inference

Engine

Learning byExperience

Learning from theory

FASTBut slow to learn

SLOWBut fast to learn



How we process change…

Daniel Kahneman

Silicon-basedlife form

Carbon-basedlife form

I logically evaluate change using System 2

I adapt quickly

I feel change emotionally using System 1

I adapt slowly



Adopting new processes challenges people psychologically & sociologically



The Kanban Method…



The Kanban Method…

*also known as "kanban" in Chinese and in Japanese when written with Chinese characters



The Kanban Method is a new approach to improvement

Kanban is a

method

without methodology



Water flows around the rock

“be like water”

the rock represents resistance



The Kanban Method



Kanban should be like water*

* http://joecampbell.wordpress.com/2009/05/13/be-like-water/



Principles behind the Kanban Method



The Kanban Lens



6 Practices Enable Process Evolution

The Kanban Method

VisualizeLimit Work-in-progressManage FlowMake Policies ExplicitImplement Feedback LoopsImprove Collaboratively, Evolve Experimentally

(using models & the scientific method)



Start with what you do now



Fitness Criteria



Fitness criteria are metrics that measure observable external outcomes



Net Promoter Score is a Fitness Evaluator but is it the only metric we need?

Steve Denning



Net Promoter Score is a way of evaluating customer satisfaction



The problem with Net Promoter Score is that it doesn’t tell you what to do!



Can we be smarter by using better fitness criteria than NPS?



If we order a pizza we know what we care about…



If we need a medical procedure…



Validate Fitness Criteria with real customers



Which system is fitter?

5 10 15 20 25 30 40 45 55 65 More02468

101214

System A

Frequency

Lead Time (Days)

5 10 15 20 25 30 More0

5

10

15

20

25

30

System B

Frequency

Lead Time in Days

Mean 17 days Mean 12 days



Measuring delivery against expectation

5 10 15 20 25 30 40 45 55 65 More02468

101214

System A

Frequency

Lead Time (Days)

-25 -20 -5 0 5 10 20 30 35 40 More0

2

4

6

8

10

12

System A

Frequency

Lead Time Expectation Spread (Days)

5 10 15 20 25 30 More0

5

10

15

20

25

30

System B

Frequency

Lead Time in Days

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 More05

1015202530354045

System B

Frequency

Lead Time Expectation Spread (Days)

Mean 17 days Mean 12 days

System B is clearly fitter!

System B delivers 5/7 within expectationsSystem A only delivers 3/7 within expectations



Business Risks, Fitness Criteria & Classes of Service should all align



Assessing fitness to pursue ashort Shelf-Life strategy

Short(days, weeks,

months)

Medium(months,quarters,1-2 years)

Long(years,

decades)

Lead T

ime

Short

Long

Deliv

ery

Business Agility

Reple

nis

hm

en

t

Frequent

Seldom

Frequent

Seldom

Pre

dic

tabili

ty

High

Low

Are our business agility &

predictability fit enough for our

strategy?

Kanban system dynamics

If we plan to pursue short shelf-life opportunities, we must measure predictability, lead time, replenishment & delivery frequency as fitness criteria. Expectations are set based on our chosen strategy to pursue short

shelf-life opportunities



Evolutionary change has no defined end point

EvolvingProcess

Rollforward

Rollback

InitialProcess

Future process is emergent

EvaluateFitness

EvaluateFitness

EvaluateFitness

EvaluateFitness

EvaluateFitness

We don’t know the end-point but we do know our emergent

process is fitter!



Kanban viewed through a Cynefin* Lens

Simple

ComplicatedComplex

Chaotic

Best Practice

Good PracticesEmergent Practices

Novel PracticesSimpleKanbanSystem

DeepKanbanSystem

KanbanMethod

*http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cynefin

Single work typeSingle class of service

Multiple work typesMultiple classes of serviceKanban systems alone

aren’t enough in the unordered domain



Enabling Evolutionary Management



Institutionalize feedback systems to enable evolutionary change

OperationsReview

SystemCapability

Review

StandupMeeting

manager to subordinate(s) (both 1-1 and 1-team)



Disintermediate!Risks, fitness criteria & classes of service

should be explicit & transparent

OperationsReview

SystemCapability

Review

StandupMeeting

manager to subordinate(s) (both 1-1 and 1-team)

Expose risk, classes of service & fitness criteria

at all 3 levels of feedback

Lead timeQualityPredictability





Is there room for improvement?

Delivered

Poolof

Ideas

F

H E

C A

I

Committed

ReadyFor

Delivery

GD

GYPB

DEMN

2 ∞

P1

AB

Lead Time

Ongoing

Development Testing

Done VerificationAcceptance3 3

Waiting Waiting WaitingWorking

* Hakan Forss, Lean Kanban France, Oct 2013** 2% reported by Zsolt Fabok, Lean Kanban France, Oct 2012

Working

∞∞

Flow efficiency measures the percentage of total lead time is spent actually adding value (or

knowledge) versus waitingFlow efficiency% = Work Time x 100%

Lead TimeFlow efficiencies of 1-5% are

commonly reported*, ** Multitasking means time spent in working columns is often waiting

time

Waiting



Other metrics should only be used as input to models to drive improvement

http://www.klausleopold.com/2013/09/blocker-clusters-problems-are-not.html



Know why you are using a metric!



Conclusion



The future of creative knowledge work should be inspired by Bruce Lee & JKD

Train with live opponentsNo kata

No "dry land swimming“



Thank you!



David Anderson is a thought leader in managing creative knowledge workers. He is CEO of Lean Kanban Inc. a business franchising training & events globally with a vision of sustainable evolutionary approaches for improved service delivery & management in creative 21st Century industries.

He has 30 years experience in the high technology industry starting with computer games in the early 1980’s. He has led software teams delivering superior productivity and quality using innovative methods at large firms such as Sprint and Motorola.

David is the pioneer of the Kanban Method an evolutionary approach to improved service delivery and better business agility. His latest book is, Lessons in Agile Management – On the Road to Kanban.

He founded Lean Kanban University, the education division of Lean Kanban Inc, a trade association of member firms & franchisees dedicated to assuring high quality Kanban training through a worldwide network of accredited trainers offering classes based on a defined and peer reviewed curriculum.

About



The idea of Modern Management Methods was inspired by History of Modern Part 2 by Orchestral Maneuvers in the Dark.

Daniel S. Vacanti first suggested that the Kanban Method and related techniques of probabilistic forecasting, statistical methods, and both qualitative and quantitative risk management were creating a change in management methods of the same magnitude and of a similar nature to the shift from Newtonian physics to Quantum Mechanics.

Janice Linden-Reed assisted with photo editing for this presentation

Acknowledgements



Joe Cooper first blogged about the similarity in philosophy between the Kanban Method and the teachings of Bruce Lee. He coined the phrase “Kanban should be like water”.

The data on slides 60 & 61 was provided by Raymond Keating of CME Group.

My approach to change was framed by an observation from Peter Senge, “People do not resist change, they resist being changed!” He intuited resistance was rooted in identity.

The Cynefin Framework & “Safe-to-fail Experiment” originated with Dave Snowden.

Steve Denning proposed NPS as the only metric that matters in his book, “Radical Management.”

Acknowledgements


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