Division of Nearshore Research Texas Coastal Ocean Observation Network Dr. Gary Jeffress Mr. James...
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![Page 1: Division of Nearshore Research Texas Coastal Ocean Observation Network Dr. Gary Jeffress Mr. James Rizzo October 2003.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070411/56649f355503460f94c53cce/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Division of Nearshore ResearchTexas Coastal OceanObservation Network
Dr. Gary Jeffress Mr. James RizzoOctober 2003
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Division of Nearshore Research Projects
Texas Coastal Ocean Observation Network NOAA/NOS Natl Water Level Obs Network Houston/Galveston PORTS National/Global Ocean Observing System TWDB Intensive Surveys
Nueces Bay Salinity Project Corpus Christi Real-Time Navigation
System CMP - Neural-Network Forecasting CMP - Waves
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TCOON Overview
Started 1988 Over 50 stations Primary Sponsors
General Land Office
Water Devel. Board US Corps of Eng Nat'l Ocean Service
Gulf ofMexico
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TCOON Overview
Measurements Precise water levels Wind Temperature Barometric
pressure Follows NOAA/NOS
standards Real-time, online
database
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Typical TCOON Station
Wind anemometer Radio antenna Satellite transmitter Solar panels Data collector Water level sensor Water quality sensor Current meter
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Nueces Bay Salinity Project
Started 1991 Informs data management officials of
opportunities to avoid water releases Water quality data collected every 30 minutes
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Other Real-time Systems
Real-time navigation Port of Corpus
Christi Port Freeport NOAA PORTS
Offshore weather
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Data Collection Paths
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Uses of DNR/TCOON Data
Tidal datums Littoral boundaries Oil-spill response Navigation Storm preparation/
response Water quality
studies Research
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Tidal Datums
Used for Coastal property boundaries Nautical charts Bridge and engineering structures
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Tidal Datum Schematic
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Research
Real-time automated data processing Tidal datum processing Web-based visualization and
manipulation of coastal data Neural network based forecasts from
real-time observations Specialized sensor and data acquisition
system development Support for other research efforts
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Water Level Forecasting
…what will happen next?
Isidore begins to (re-)enter the Gulf…
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Tide Predictions
TideThe periodic rise and fall of a body of water resulting from gravitational interactions between Sun, Moon, and Earth. Tide and Current Glossary, National Ocean Service, 2000
According to NOS, changes in water level from non-gravitational forces are not “tides”.
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Prediction vs. Observation
It’s nice when it works…
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Prediction vs. Observation
…but it often doesn’t work in Texas
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Water Level != Tide
In Texas, meteorological factors have a significant effect on water elevations.
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Uses of Harmonic Predictions
However, harmonic predictions can still be useful! Consider…
…what will happen next?
Isidore begins to (re-)enter the Gulf…
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Uses of Harmonic Predictions
If we add harmonic prediction…
…what will happen next?
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Uses of Harmonic Predictions
landfall
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Harmonic Water Level PredictionsPresent Capabilities
Automated system for computing harmonic constituent values from observations database
Harmonic predictions available via query page for many TCOON stations
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Water Level Prediction (Near) Future Capabilities
Persistent model forecast Apply difference between latest observation and
harmonic prediction to future predictions Forecasts page on DNR web site
Obtain forecasts from different models Harmonic predictions Persistent model Neural-network model Linear-regression/statistical model Hybrid models
Information about water-level forecasting methods Statistics on previous forecasts
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Neural Network Forecasting
Use neural network to model non-tidal component of water level
Reliable short-term predictions
75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Wat
er L
evel
s (m
)
Julian Day,1997
CCNAS ANN 24-hour Forecasts for 1997 (ANN trained over 2001 Data Set)
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Forecasts in Storm Events
230 235 240 245 250 255 260 265 270 2750
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
Wat
er L
evel
s (m
)
Julian Day,1998
CCNAS ANN 12-hour Forecasts During 1998 Tropical Storm Frances (ANN trained over 2001 Data Set)
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NN Model, 24 Hr prediction
Harmonic Analysis
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Conclusions
Long-term, data-rich observation network
Web-based infrastructure for automated collection and processing of marine data
Research in datum computation and coastal forecasting