Diversification versus Polarization: Role of industrial ...
Transcript of Diversification versus Polarization: Role of industrial ...
Diversification versus Polarization: Role of industrial policy in Asia
and the Pacific
Sudip Ranjan Basu*International Trade DivisionUNCTAD
TOWARDS A RETURN OF INDUSTRIAL POLICY?ARTNeT SYMPOSIUM
25-26 JULY 2011ESCAP, BANGKOK
1
Diversification versus Polarization:
Role of industrial policy in
Asia and the Pacific
TOWARDS A RETURN OF INDUSTRIAL POLICY?
UN ESCAP ARTNeT SYMPOSIUMBangkok, Thailand
25-26 July 2011
Sudip Ranjan Basu*
International Trade Division
UNCTAD
*The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the
views of the UNCTAD Secretariat or its members.
2
A comparative scale: World, Asia-Pacific and Sub-regions in manufacturing
Measuring Export Diversification and Polarization
Results and analysis
Way forward
OutlineIndustrial policy, trade and development
3
Industrial policy, trade and
development
• capacity and expand structure
Searching for Industrial Policy (IP)(web accessed as on 25 June 2011)
Scholar
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
Num
ber o
f Sea
rch
Resu
lts
Year
Google Scholar
Industrial Policy Macroeconomic Policy Trade Policy
Source: SRBasu-2011
Rosenstein-Rodan (1943)
Hirschman (1958)
Prebisch (1959)
Baldwin (1969) Krueger (1974) Pack (1993)
Lall (2004)
Rodrik (2007)
Lin (2009)
Infant industry
protection,
state-ownership and
state coordination
Trade liberalization ,
privatization and attracting
FDI : macroeconomic
Stability ‘getting prices
right’ and minimum
government interference
Government Policy Design
Innovation,
technological
catching up and
exports capability
Components of IP
Policy
interventionProductive
capacitydevelopment
Enterprise
development
- Import tariffs, quotas &
licences
-Export subsidies, trade
financing
-Tax breaks
- Special economic zones
- Privatization of firms
-Physical capital
- Human capital
- Labour training & skill
formation
-Innovation policies
- R&D investment
- Developing high-tech
products, innovation
- FDI incentives
-Domestic financing
-Public-private partnership
-SME cluster formation
-Management capacity
development
-Competition policy
-Marketing and promotion
Government
intervention
• Recent papers – Lall (2000), Wood and Mayer (2001), Lederman and Maloney (2003), Imbs
and Wacziarg (2003), Hausman and Rodrik (2003), Collier (2003)
– Sachs et al. (2004) , Hausman, Hwang and Rodrik (2005), Melitz and
Ottaviano(2005), Rodrik (2006), UN Africa (2007)
– Cadot, et al (2008) , World Bank (2009) , UN DESA (2006, 2010)
– UNCTAD (2002, 2008, 2009 and 2010) ,Basu and Das (2010), Basu (2011)6
Theory and EmpiricsIP & Diversification
• Structural change and Export diversification
• Welfare impacts: economic growth and employment creations • Sectoral implications: Depending on the institutional linkages and stages of development, welfare implications tend to be higher in high skilled/technology content industries, and new issues related to intensive and extensive margin •Domestic economic linkages: Forward and backward linkages with domestic firms leading to a productive capacity and expand structure
Policy and Outcomes
7
UNCTAD TDI model
Source: UNCTAD 2007
8
A comparative scale:
World, Asia-Pacific and Sub-
regions in manufacturing
• Benchmarking outcomes: Asia-Pacific to RoW
– Share of manufacturing/GDP
– Comparing Asia-Pacific with other regions
• Sub-regional outcomes for regional coordination
– Process of catching-up across regions
• Manufacturing and GDP – Positive correlation of manufactures with GDP per capita
• Composition of exports
– Climbing-up skill and technology contents of exports
• Dynamic shifts of quality of exports9
Key descriptive findingsMessages
10
Benchmarking Asia-PacificManufacturing
11.210.3
14.313.4
14.1 13.9
20.3
17.8
0
5
10
15
20
Manufa
ctu
rin
g
Africa Americas Asia Europe
Source:UN,SRBasu-2011
(% of GDP, world by regions, averages)
Manufacturing contributions to GDP
1993-2000 2001-2008
11.2
10.3
14.113.3 13.3 13.5
0
5
10
15
Manufa
ctu
rin
g
Africa Americas Asia
Source:UN,SRBasu-2011
(% of GDP, developing world by regions, averages)
Manufacturing contributions to GDP
1993-2000 2001-2008
11
Sub-regions in ManufacturingOverview
9.7 9.4
17.3
13.3
4.4 4.3
48.145.9
3.2 3.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
Non-f
uel P
rim
ary
Com
moditi
es
Eastern Asia Pacific South Asia Southeast AsiaWestern Asia
Source:UN,SRBasu-2011
(% of GDP, Asia-Pacific regions, averages)
Primary Commodities contributions to GDP
1993-2000 2001-2008
1.7
4.4
0.7
2.31.7 1.7
12.4
14.7
0.9
2.0
0
5
10
15R
eso
urc
e a
nd L
abor-
inte
nsi
ve M
anufa
cture
s
Eastern Asia Pacific South Asia Southeast AsiaWestern Asia
Source:UN,SRBasu-2011
(% of GDP, Asia-Pacific regions, averages)
Resource and Labor-intensive Manufactures contributions to GDP
1993-2000 2001-2008
6.0 6.3
1.9 1.1
6.7 7.4
41.743.0
2.7
5.5
0
10
20
30
40
Low
-skill and T
echnolo
gy Inte
nsiv
e M
anufa
ctu
res
Eastern Asia Pacific South Asia Southeast AsiaWestern Asia
Source:UN,SRBasu-2011
(% of GDP, Asia-Pacific regions, averages)
Low-skill and Technology Intensive Manufactures contributions to GDP
1993-2000 2001-2008
4.67.5
1.5 2.3 1.4 1.6
46.7
83.0
4.16.3
0
20
40
60
80
Mediu
m-s
kill and T
echnolo
gy Inte
nsiv
e M
anufa
ctu
res
Eastern Asia Pacific South Asia Southeast AsiaWestern Asia
Source:UN,SRBasu-2011
(% of GDP, Asia-Pacific regions, averages)
Medium- skill and Technology Intensive Manufactures contributions to GDP
1993-2000 2001-2008
3.76.9
0.2 0.3 0.2 0.9
67.7
80.5
1.1 1.7
0
20
40
60
80
Hig
h-skill and T
echnolo
gy Inte
nsiv
e M
anufa
ctu
res
Eastern Asia Pacific South Asia Southeast AsiaWestern Asia
Source:UN,SRBasu-2011
(% of GDP, Asia-Pacific regions, averages)
High- skill and Technology Intensive Manufactures contributions to GDP
1993-2000 2001-2008
12
GDP and ManufacturingCorrelating
AGO ALBARG
ATG
AUT
BDI
BEL
BEN BFABGR
BHS
BLRBLZBOL
BRA
BRB
BWACAF
CAN
CHE
CHLCIV
CMRCOG COLCOM CPV
CRI
DEU
DJIDMA
DNK
DOMDZAECU EGYERI
ESP
EST
ETH
FINFRA
GAB
GBR
GHAGINGMB GNB
GNQ
GRC
GRDGTMGUY HND
HUN
IRL
ISL
ITA
JAMKEN
KNA
LBR
LBYLCA
LSO
LTU
LUX
LVAMAR MDAMDG
MEX
MLI
MLT
MOZMRTMUS
MWINAM
NERNGA NIC
NLD
NOR
PAN PERPOL
PRT
PRYRUS
RWASDN SENSLESLVSTP
SURSVK
SVN
SWE
SWZ
SYC
TCDTGO
TTO
TUNTZAUGA UKR
URY
USA
VCT VENZAFZMB ZWEAFG
ARE
ARM
AUS
AZE BGD
BHR
BRN
BTN CHNFJIGEO
HKG
IDNINDIRNIRQ JOR
JPN
KAZKGZKHMKIR
KOR
KWT
LAOLBN
LKA
MAC
MDVMHLMMRMNG
MYS
NCL
NPL
NZL
OMN
PAK PHL
PLW
PNG
SAU
SGP
SLB SYR THATJKTKMTON
TUR
UZB VNMVUT WSMYEM0
200
00
400
00
600
00
800
00
GD
P pe
r c
apita
(U
SD
20
05
)
0 10 20 30 40Manufactures
Rest of world Asia-Pacific
Fitted values
Source:UN,SRBasu-2011
(Manucaturing % of GDP, averages, 1993-2008)
GDP per capita and Manufactures
AGO
ARG
ATG
BDIBEN BFA
BHS
BLZBOL
BRA
BRB
BWA
CAF
CHLCIV
CMRCOGCOL
COM CPVCRI
DJI
DMA DOMDZAECUEGYERIETH
GAB
GHAGINGMB GNB
GNQGRD
GTMGUY HNDJAM
KEN
KNA
LBR
LBYLCA
LSOMARMDG
MEX
MLI MOZMRT
MUS
MWINAM
NERNGA NIC
PANPER
PRYRWASDN SENSLESLV
STPSUR SWZ
SYC
TCDTGO
TTO
TUNTZAUGA
URYVCT
VENZAF
ZMB ZWEAFG
ARE
BGD
BHR
BRN
BTN CHNFJI
HKG
IDNINDIRN
IRQJOR
KHMKIR
KOR
KWT
LAO
LBN
LKA
MAC
MDVMHLMMRMNG
MYS
NCL
NPL
OMN
PAK PHL
PLW
PNG
SAU
SGP
SLB SYR THATON
TUR
VNMVUT WSMYEM0
100
00
200
00
300
00
400
00
500
00
GD
P p
er c
apita
(U
SD
20
05
)
0 10 20 30 40Manufactures
Rest of world Asia-Pacific
Fitted values
Source:UN,SRBasu-2011
(Manucaturing % of GDP, developing world, averages, 1993-2008)
GDP per capita and Manufactures
13
Sub-regional variations (per capita exports, ppp $)
Primary
261.0286.8
442.8
352.9
104.4
148.2
497.3518.3
174.5194.7
0
100
200
300
400
500
No
n-fue
l P
rim
ary C
om
mod
itie
s
Eastern Asia Pacific South Asia Southeast AsiaWestern Asia
Source:UN,SRBasu-2011
(Per capita US dollars, Asia-Pacific, average of 1993-2008)
Regions
1993-2000 2001-2008
CHNIND
IDNJOR
KOR
LBNMYS
PAKPHL
THA
TUR
VNMBGDBTN
KHM
FJIKIRLAO
MDVFSM MNGNPL
PNGWSM
SGP
SLBLKATON VUT
0
10
00
02
00
00
30
00
04
00
00
GD
P p
er
cap
ita
0 500 1000 1500 2000Non-fuel Primary Commodities
Emerging Asia Rest of Asia
Fitted values
Source:UN,SRBasu-2011
(Per capita US dollars, Asia-Pacific, 1993-2008)
GDP and Non-fuel Primary Commodities
CHN
IND
IDN
JOR
LBN
MYS
PAKPHL
THA
TUR
VNM
BGD
BTN
KHM
FJI
KIR
LAO
MDV
FSMMNG
NPL
PNG
WSM
SLB
LKATON VUT
0
20
00
40
00
60
00
80
00
10
00
0
GD
P p
er
cap
ita
0 500 1000Non-fuel Primary Commodities
Emerging Asia Rest of Asia
Fitted values
Source:UN,SRBasu-2011
(Per capita US dollars, Asia-Pacific, 1993-2008)
GDP and Non-fuel Primary Commodities
14
Sub-regional variations (per capita exports, ppp $)
Labour
133.9
198.4
21.9
48.837.2
50.6
220.5
326.1
57.2
154.0
0
100
200
300
400
Re
sou
rce
an
d L
abo
r-in
ten
siv
e M
an
ufa
ctu
res
Eastern Asia Pacific South Asia Southeast Asia Western Asia
Source:UN,SRBasu-2011
(Per capita US dollars, Asia-Pacific, average of 1993-2008)
Regions
1993-2000 2001-2008
CHNIND
IDNJOR
KOR
LBNMYS
PAKPHL
THA
TUR
VNMBGDBTN
KHM
FJIKIRLAOMDVFSM MNGNPL
PNGWSM
SGP
SLBLKATONVUT
0
10
00
02
00
00
30
00
04
00
00
GD
P p
er
cap
ita
0 500 1000 1500Resource and Labor-intensive Manufactures
Emerging Asia Rest of Asia
Fitted values
Source:UN,SRBasu-2011
(Per capita US dollars, Asia-Pacific, 1993-2008)
GDP and Resource and Labor-intensive Manufactures
CHN
IND
IDN
JOR
LBN
MYS
PAKPHL
THA
TUR
VNM
BGD
BTN
KHM
FJI
KIR
LAO
MDV
FSMMNG
NPL
PNG
WSM
SLB
LKATONVUT
0
20
00
40
00
60
00
80
00
10
00
0
GD
P p
er
cap
ita
0 100 200 300 400Resource and Labor-intensive Manufactures
Emerging Asia Rest of Asia
Fitted values
Source:UN,SRBasu-2011
(Per capita US dollars, Asia-Pacific, 1993-2008)
GDP and Resource and Labor-intensive Manufactures
15
Sub-regional variations (per capita exports, ppp $)
Low skill and
technology
444.8
522.5
65.239.7
132.6172.7
523.5
706.4
226.5
394.1
0
200
400
600
800
Low
-skill an
d T
ech
nolo
gy In
ten
siv
e M
an
ufa
ctures
Eastern Asia Pacific South Asia Southeast AsiaWestern Asia
Source:UN,SRBasu-2011
(Per capita US dollars, Asia-Pacific, average of 1993-2008)
Regions
1993-2000 2001-2008
CHNIND
IDNJOR
KOR
LBNMYS
PAKPHL
THA
TUR
VNMBGDBTN
KHM
FJIKIRLAO
MDVFSMMNGNPL
PNGWSM
SGP
SLB LKATONVUT
0
1000
020
000
3000
040
000
GD
P p
er c
apita
0 1000 2000 3000Low-skill and Technology Intensive Manufactures
Emerging Asia Rest of Asia
Fitted values
Source:UN,SRBasu-2011
(Per capita US dollars, Asia-Pacific, 1993-2008)
GDP and Low-skill and Technology Intensive Manufactures
CHN
IND
IDN
JOR
LBN
MYS
PAKPHL
THA
TUR
VNM
BGD
BTN
KHM
FJI
KIR
LAO
MDV
FSMMNG
NPL
PNG
WSM
SLB
LKATONVUT
0
20
00
40
00
60
00
80
00
10
00
0
GD
P p
er
cap
ita
0 200 400 600 800Low-skill and Technology Intensive Manufactures
Emerging Asia Rest of Asia
Fitted values
Source:UN,SRBasu-2011
(Per capita US dollars, Asia-Pacific, 1993-2008)
GDP and Low-skill and Technology Intensive Manufactures
16
Sub-regional variations (per capita exports, ppp $)
Medium skill and
technology
536.5
1197.3
43.4 86.0 30.2 43.8
1451.5
2812.5
209.9
437.3
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Me
diu
m-skill a
nd T
echn
olo
gy Inte
nsiv
e M
anu
factu
re
s
Eastern Asia Pacific South Asia Southeast AsiaWestern Asia
Source:UN,SRBasu-2011
(Per capita US dollars, Asia-Pacific, average of 1993-2008)
Regions
1993-2000 2001-2008
CHNINDIDNJOR
KOR
LBNMYS
PAKPHL
THA
TUR
VNMBGDBTNKHM
FJIKIRLAOMDVFSMMNGNPLPNG
WSM
SGP
SLBLKATONVUT
0
1000
020
000
3000
040
000
GD
P p
er c
apita
0 5000 10000 15000Medium-skill and Technology Intensive Manufactures
Emerging Asia Rest of Asia
Fitted values
Source:UN,SRBasu-2011
(Per capita US dollars, Asia-Pacific, 1993-2008)
GDP and Medium-skill and Technology Intensive Manufactures
CHN
IND
IDN
JOR
LBN
MYS
PAKPHL
THA
TUR
VNM
BGD
BTN
KHM
FJI
KIRLAO
MDV
FSMMNG
NPL
PNG
WSM
SLBLKATONVUT
0
20
00
40
00
60
00
80
001
00
00
GD
P p
er
ca
pita
0 500 1000 1500Medium-skill and Technology Intensive Manufactures
Emerging Asia Rest of Asia
Fitted values
Source:UN,SRBasu-2011
(Per capita US dollars, Asia-Pacific, 1993-2008)
GDP and Medium-skill and Technology Intensive Manufactures
17
Sub-regional variations (per capita exports, ppp $)
High skill and
technology
485.4
996.4
4.3 8.1 4.6 31.1
3775.6
5409.6
48.8 92.3
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
Hig
h-skill an
d T
ech
nolo
gy In
ten
siv
e M
an
ufa
ctures
Eastern Asia Pacific South Asia Southeast AsiaWestern Asia
Source:UN,SRBasu-2011
(Per capita US dollars, Asia-Pacific, average of 1993-2008)
Regions
1993-2000 2001-2008
CHNINDIDNJOR
KOR
LBNMYS
PAKPHL
THA
TUR
VNMBGDBTNKHM
FJIKIRLAOMDVFSMMNGNPLPNGWSM
SGP
SLBLKATONVUT
0
1000
020
000
3000
040
000
GD
P pe
r cap
ita
0 10000 20000 30000High-skill and Technology Intensive Manufactures
Emerging Asia Rest of Asia
Fitted values
Source:UN,SRBasu-2011
(Per capita US dollars, Asia-Pacific, 1993-2008)
GDP and High-skill and Technology Intensive Manufactures
CHN
IND
IDN
JOR
LBN
MYS
PAKPHL
THA
TUR
VNM
BGD
BTN
KHM
FJI
KIRLAO
MDV
FSMMNG
NPL
PNG
WSM
SLBLKATONVUT
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
1000
0
GD
P p
er c
apita
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000High-skill and Technology Intensive Manufactures
Emerging Asia Rest of Asia
Fitted values
Source:UN,SRBasu-2011
(Per capita US dollars, Asia-Pacific, 1993-2008)
GDP and High-skill and Technology Intensive Manufactures
18
Density estimates (per capita exports, ppp $)
Primary0
.1.2
.3.4
0 2.4 4.8 7.2 9.6 12
log(primary, per capita)
1993 2000
2008
Source: UN, SRBasu-2011
(Asia-Pacific Region)
Density curves for Non-fuel primary commodities
0.1
.2.3
.4
0 2.4 4.8 7.2 9.6 12
Log (primary commodities, per capita)
1993-2000 2001-2008
Source: UN, SRBasu-2011
(Asia-Pacific Region, average of the period)
Density curves for Non-fuel primary commodities
19
Density estimates (per capita exports, ppp $)
Labour0
.05
.1.1
5.2
.25
0 2.4 4.8 7.2 9.6 12
Log (Resource & Labour, per capita)
1993 2000
2008
Source: UN, SRBasu-2011
(Asia-Pacific Region)
Density curves for Resource & Labour-intensive manufactures
0
.0
5.1
.1
5.2
.2
5
0 2.4 4.8 7.2 9.6 12
Log (Resource & Labour, per capita)
1993-2000 2001-2008
Source: UN, SRBasu-2011
(Asia-Pacific Region, average of the period)
Density curves for Resource & Labour-intensive manufactures
20
Density estimates (per capita exports, ppp $)
Low skill and
technology
0.1
.2.3
.4
0 2.4 4.8 7.2 9.6 12
Log (Low, per capita)
1993-2000 2001-2008
Source: UN, SRBasu-2011
(Asia-Pacific Region, average of the period)
Density curves for Low skill & technology intensive manufactures
0.1
.2.3
.4
0 2.4 4.8 7.2 9.6 12
Log (Low, per capita)
1993 2000
2008
Source: UN, SRBasu-2011
(Asia-Pacific Region)
Density curves for Low skill & technology intensive manufactures
21
Density estimates (per capita exports, ppp $)
Medium skill and
technology0
.05
.1.1
5.2
0 2.4 4.8 7.2 9.6 12
Log (Medium, per capita)
1993 2000
2008
Source: UN, SRBasu-2011
(Asia-Pacific Region)
Density curves for Medium skill & technology intensive manufactures
0
.05
.1.1
5.2
0 2.4 4.8 7.2 9.6 12
Log (Medium, per capita)
1933-2000 2001-2008
Source: UN, SRBasu-2011
(Asia-Pacific Region, average of the period)
Density curves for Medium skill & technology intensive manufactures
22
Density estimates (per capita exports, ppp $)
High skill and
technology
0
.05
.1.1
5
0 2.4 4.8 7.2 9.6 12
Log (High, per capita)
1993-2000 2001-2008
Source: UN, SRBasu-2011
(Asia-Pacific Region, average of the period)
Density curves for High skill & technology intensive manufactures
0
.05
.1.1
5.2
0 2.4 4.8 7.2 9.6 12
Log (High, per capita)
1993 2000
2008
Source: UN, SRBasu-2011
(Asia-Pacific Region)
Density curves for High skill & technology intensive manufactures
23
Measuring Export Diversification
and Polarization
24
• Understanding quality and composition of exports
• Skill and Technology contents of exports sectors
• Diversification index: 0=least diversified, and 1=most diversified
-Non-fuel Primary commodities
-Labour intensive and resource based manufactures
-Manufactures with low skill and technology intensity
-Manufactures with medium skill and technology intensity
-Manufactures with high skill and technology intensity
-Energy products
-Unclassified products
Tool: 1Measuring Diversification (exports)
• Gini coefficient of inequality
• Generalized entropy class (GE)• to allow inequality across groups to be broken down into
within group inequality and between group inequality
• Polarization index as ratio of between group inequality
in total inequality (within group inequality + between
group inequality)
– Basu, Fan and Zhang 2007 and Basu 2009
• Shorrocks decomposition• Total inequality into inequality contributions from each
of the factors of total exports
25
Inequality and PolarizationTool: 2
26
• Exports composition: Shifting exports from primary commodities to skill-technology manufactures
• Computations to estimate exports patterns: – Overall inequality
– Spatial inequality
– Sources of inequality
• Data/Sample: 29 countries (21 Asia, 8 Pacific)
– 12 Emerging countries, 10 LDCs, 8 ASEAN, 18 Tropical
• Time periods: 1993 to 2008
• Trade database
– UNCTAD South-South Trade Information System (SSTIS)
– Product Classification at HS-4 digit level and Basu (2010, 2011)
Testing hypothesis Data sets
27
Results and Analysis
• Inequality:
– Regions: Different sub-regions progress differently
– Income level: LDCs, SIDS, ASEAN indicate
– Sectors : Sectoral differences remain within sub-regions
and income level
• Polarization:
– Regions: Pacific, South East &East, South Asia
– Income: Emerging, LDCs, SIDS
– Geography: Tropocal
28
Explorative resultsPolicy Messages
Uneven development of manufacturing in Asia-Pacific
Asia-Pacific exports inequality (per capita, by skill and technology contents)
29
Percent
1: Gini
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
Primary Labour Low Medium HighSource: SRBasu-2011
Pacific regions exports inequality (per capita, by skill and technology contents)
30
Percent
Pacific region
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
Primary Labour Low Medium High
Emerging Asia’s exports inequality (per capita, by skill and technology contents)
31
Percent
Emerging Asia
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
Primary Labour Low Medium High
ASEAN exports inequality (per capita, by skill and technology contents)
32
Percent
ASEAN
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
Primary Labour Low Medium High
GAP
LDCs exports inequality (per capita, by skill and technology contents)
33
Percent
Low income
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1001
99
3
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
Primary Labour Low Medium High
GAP
SIDS exports inequality (per capita, by skill and technology contents)
34
Percent
Small islands
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
Primary Labour Low Medium High
GAP
LDCs & SIDS exports inequality (per capita, by skill and technology contents)
35
Percent
LDCs and SIDS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
Primary Labour Low Medium High
Asia-Pacific sub-regional exports inequality
(per capita, by skill and technology contents)
36
Percent
Primary
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
South East & South East Pacific
GAP
Asia-Pacific sub-regional exports inequality
(per capita, by skill and technology contents)
37
Percent
Labour
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
South East & South East Pacific
GAP
Asia-Pacific sub-regional exports inequality
(per capita, by skill and technology contents)
38
Percent
Low
GAP
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
South East & South East Pacific
GAP
Asia-Pacific sub-regional exports inequality
(per capita, by skill and technology contents)
39
Percent
Medium
GAP GAP
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
South East & South East Pacific
GAP
Asia-Pacific sub-regional exports inequality
(per capita, by skill and technology contents)
40
Percent
High
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
South East & South East Pacific
GAP
Pacific and rest of Asia’s exports(per capita, by skill and technology contents)
41
Percent
2: Polarization
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
Primary Labour Low Medium High
South-East & East and rest of Asia’s exports
(per capita, by skill and technology contents)
42
Percent
Regions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
Primary Labour Low Medium High
South Asia and rest of Asia’s exports
(per capita, by skill and technology contents)
43
Percent
Regions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
Primary Labour Low Medium High
ASEAN and rest of Asia’s exports
(per capita, by skill and technology contents)
44
Percent
Regions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
Primary Labour Low Medium High
Emerging economies and rest of Asia’s exports
(per capita, by skill and technology contents)
45
Percent
Income
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
Primary Labour Low Medium High
LDCs and rest of Asia’s exports
(per capita, by skill and technology contents)
46
Percent
Income
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
Primary Labour Low Medium High
SIDS and rest of Asia’s exports
(per capita, by skill and technology contents)
47
Percent
Size
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
Primary Labour Low Medium High
Tropical Asia and rest of Asia’s exports
(per capita, by skill and technology contents)
48
Percent
Physical Geography
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
Primary Labour Low Medium High
49
Way forward
50
• Asia-Pacific regions shared development leveraging on export-led growth
•Inequality in skill-technology contents remains and is reducing unevenly depending on stage of development
• Emerging economies play key role to improve conditions
Regional polices
•Policies to Capability development to identify new and dynamic sectors, and help discovery process
•Inter- ministerial coordination and policy coherence
•Identifying Priority sectors for skill-technology development
National Strategies
•Providing incentives depending on industry and sectoralcluster, integration, competitiveness
•Investment in infrastructure, education and productive capacity building should remain high
Industrial Policies
•Global policy coordination on skill and technology development
•Regional funds to promote capability and capacity development
•‘Industrial Policy’ and Productive Capacity development for growth with Equity agenda
What’s next Globally?
Summary