Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI Data · Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load...
Transcript of Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI Data · Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load...
![Page 1: Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI Data · Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting? •Now have AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) data •The pattern of](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022040912/5e86bf83b2b72d4533201ee7/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI DataBradley Lawson – SASMark Konya - SAS
![Page 2: Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI Data · Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting? •Now have AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) data •The pattern of](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022040912/5e86bf83b2b72d4533201ee7/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
What is Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting?
• Very short to very long-term forecasts of distribution circuit loads
• at intermediate distribution circuit locations between customer meters and substation feeder buses
• using AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) data
• Provides significant advantages to distribution system planners and operators in a number of areas
• anticipation of device overloads
• facilitation of switching operations
![Page 3: Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI Data · Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting? •Now have AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) data •The pattern of](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022040912/5e86bf83b2b72d4533201ee7/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting?
• Now have AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) data
• The pattern of customer loads matter when changes are taking place
• Knowing customer’s peak load is not enough, need to know how it fits with all the other customers on the distribution feeder.
• More chance for localized problems. (Know the feeder pattern, but problems could arise on the local/transformer.)
• More chance for localized opportunities. (DR)
• Hourly modeling helps anticipate localized loads from severe weather
![Page 4: Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI Data · Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting? •Now have AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) data •The pattern of](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022040912/5e86bf83b2b72d4533201ee7/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Grid Disruption Will Continue
4
Rooftop and community solar
Electric vehicles
Customer battery
Smart home
![Page 5: Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI Data · Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting? •Now have AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) data •The pattern of](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022040912/5e86bf83b2b72d4533201ee7/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
The Residential Customer
5
Customer loads
Roof Top Solar
Storage
Electric Vehicles
+
+
-Customer
+
![Page 6: Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI Data · Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting? •Now have AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) data •The pattern of](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022040912/5e86bf83b2b72d4533201ee7/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
The New Residential Customer
6
Customer loads
Roof Top Solar
Storage
Electric Vehicles
+/0
+/-
-
Demand Response
+/-
+/-
![Page 7: Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI Data · Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting? •Now have AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) data •The pattern of](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022040912/5e86bf83b2b72d4533201ee7/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Effect of Solar and Wind Generation
![Page 8: Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI Data · Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting? •Now have AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) data •The pattern of](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022040912/5e86bf83b2b72d4533201ee7/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
North Carolina Solar
8
Data Current Through:Q3 2018
Installed (MW): 4,671
National Ranking: 2nd (2nd in 2017)
State Homes Powered by Solar: 533,796
Percentage of State's Electricity from Solar: 5.44%
Solar Jobs: 7,622
Prices have fallen 43% over the last 5 years
Growth Projection and Ranking:
3,671 MW over the next 5 years (ranks 4th)
https://www.seia.org/state-solar-policy/north-carolina-solar
![Page 9: Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI Data · Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting? •Now have AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) data •The pattern of](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022040912/5e86bf83b2b72d4533201ee7/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Mitigating the duck curve with storage
![Page 10: Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI Data · Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting? •Now have AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) data •The pattern of](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022040912/5e86bf83b2b72d4533201ee7/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
10
Electric vehicles
![Page 11: Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI Data · Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting? •Now have AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) data •The pattern of](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022040912/5e86bf83b2b72d4533201ee7/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Electric Vehicles
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Hourly Household Load
Home Load
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
EV Charge Start 6 PM
Home Load EV Load
![Page 12: Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI Data · Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting? •Now have AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) data •The pattern of](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022040912/5e86bf83b2b72d4533201ee7/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Electric Vehicles
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
EV Charge Start 9 PM
Home Load EV Load
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
EV Charge Start Midnight
Home Load EV Load
![Page 13: Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI Data · Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting? •Now have AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) data •The pattern of](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022040912/5e86bf83b2b72d4533201ee7/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
13
METERING ADVANCES
![Page 14: Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI Data · Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting? •Now have AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) data •The pattern of](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022040912/5e86bf83b2b72d4533201ee7/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Billed and unbilled sales
14
JAN FEB
Billed Sales MHW Unbilled Sales
Bill Cycle 1
Bill Cycle 20
![Page 15: Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI Data · Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting? •Now have AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) data •The pattern of](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022040912/5e86bf83b2b72d4533201ee7/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Metering
15
AMR - Automated Meter reading
Reads meter once per month
• No hourly Data
• Read in cycle – never a calendar month
• Data no different from traditional meter
AMI - Automated Metering Infrastructure
Read meter continuously
• Hourly data……Big Data
![Page 16: Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI Data · Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting? •Now have AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) data •The pattern of](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022040912/5e86bf83b2b72d4533201ee7/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
AMI Meters
16
![Page 17: Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI Data · Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting? •Now have AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) data •The pattern of](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022040912/5e86bf83b2b72d4533201ee7/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
17
How is hourly forecasting different from monthly or daily?
![Page 18: Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI Data · Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting? •Now have AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) data •The pattern of](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022040912/5e86bf83b2b72d4533201ee7/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
What is the Challenge of Hourly Forecasting?
18
![Page 19: Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI Data · Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting? •Now have AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) data •The pattern of](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022040912/5e86bf83b2b72d4533201ee7/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
What is the Challenge of Hourly Forecasting?
19
![Page 20: Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI Data · Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting? •Now have AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) data •The pattern of](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022040912/5e86bf83b2b72d4533201ee7/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Simple Load Forecast Model
20
𝑳𝒐𝒂𝒅 = 𝑰𝒏𝒕𝒆𝒓𝒄𝒆𝒑𝒕 + 𝜷𝟏 ∗ (𝑻𝒆𝒎𝒑𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒖𝒓𝒆 < 𝟔𝟎) +𝜷𝟐 ∗ (𝑻𝒆𝒎𝒑𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒖𝒓𝒆 > 𝟔𝟎)
![Page 21: Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI Data · Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting? •Now have AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) data •The pattern of](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022040912/5e86bf83b2b72d4533201ee7/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Degree Days
21
Daily Average Temperature (DAT) = (maximum + minimum)/2
Heating Degree Days = 65 degrees F – DAT Where temperatures are below 65
Cooling Degree Days = DAT- 65 degrees F Where temperatures are above 65
𝑳𝒐𝒂𝒅 = 𝑰𝒏𝒕𝒆𝒓𝒄𝒆𝒑𝒕 + 𝜷𝟏 ∗ (𝑯𝑫𝑫𝟔𝟓) + 𝜷𝟐 ∗ (𝑪𝑫𝑫𝟔𝟓)
![Page 22: Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI Data · Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting? •Now have AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) data •The pattern of](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022040912/5e86bf83b2b72d4533201ee7/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
What is the Challenge of Hourly Forecasting?
22
![Page 23: Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI Data · Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting? •Now have AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) data •The pattern of](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022040912/5e86bf83b2b72d4533201ee7/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
What is the Challenge of Hourly Forecasting?
23
![Page 24: Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI Data · Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting? •Now have AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) data •The pattern of](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022040912/5e86bf83b2b72d4533201ee7/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
What causes the differences
24
• Heating/Cooling
• Schools
• Pool pumps
Season or Month
• Lower loads on Saturdays and Sundays
• Drop off of Industrial load on Friday
• SchoolsDay of Week
• Family life patterns
• Businesses open and close
• Industrial Plants – 1/2/3 shiftsHour of Day
![Page 25: Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI Data · Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting? •Now have AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) data •The pattern of](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022040912/5e86bf83b2b72d4533201ee7/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
What should a hourly load forecast model consider?
25
Temperature
Season or Month
Day of Week
Hour of Day
![Page 26: Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI Data · Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting? •Now have AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) data •The pattern of](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022040912/5e86bf83b2b72d4533201ee7/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
26
DATA
![Page 27: Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI Data · Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting? •Now have AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) data •The pattern of](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022040912/5e86bf83b2b72d4533201ee7/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
“Before (adopting analytics), we spent 80 percent of our time processing data and just 20 percent analyzing it. Those percentages have now flip-flopped, freeing up more time for us to plan and launch data-driven operational activities.”
![Page 28: Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI Data · Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting? •Now have AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) data •The pattern of](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022040912/5e86bf83b2b72d4533201ee7/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Forecast process
28
Historic hourly load and Temperature DataForecast Hourly
Temperature Data
Fit a modelForecast Hourly
Future Load
![Page 29: Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI Data · Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting? •Now have AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) data •The pattern of](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022040912/5e86bf83b2b72d4533201ee7/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Data for hourly forecasting
29
• Need at least a year of data to build models/Two or three years are better
• Hourly (AMI) load data
• Temperature
![Page 30: Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI Data · Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting? •Now have AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) data •The pattern of](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022040912/5e86bf83b2b72d4533201ee7/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Data needs to be cleaned
30
• Data problems
• AMI - missing
• Temperature – missing & incorrect
• Demand response & solar reduced load
![Page 31: Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI Data · Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting? •Now have AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) data •The pattern of](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022040912/5e86bf83b2b72d4533201ee7/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Residential behind the meter solar
31
![Page 32: Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI Data · Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting? •Now have AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) data •The pattern of](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022040912/5e86bf83b2b72d4533201ee7/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
32
Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting
![Page 33: Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI Data · Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting? •Now have AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) data •The pattern of](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022040912/5e86bf83b2b72d4533201ee7/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Levels of the power system
![Page 34: Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI Data · Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting? •Now have AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) data •The pattern of](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022040912/5e86bf83b2b72d4533201ee7/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Illustration of Feeder Circuit
34
![Page 35: Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI Data · Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting? •Now have AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) data •The pattern of](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022040912/5e86bf83b2b72d4533201ee7/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Customer Segmentation
• May want to forecast individual customers as a segment of the population rather than from their individual data.
![Page 36: Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI Data · Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting? •Now have AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) data •The pattern of](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022040912/5e86bf83b2b72d4533201ee7/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
40%
07:00 16:00 22:00
00:00 05:00 10:00 15:00 20:00 24:00
![Page 37: Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI Data · Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting? •Now have AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) data •The pattern of](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022040912/5e86bf83b2b72d4533201ee7/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
33%
07:00 16:00 22:00
00:00 05:00 10:00 15:00 20:00 24:00
![Page 38: Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI Data · Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting? •Now have AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) data •The pattern of](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022040912/5e86bf83b2b72d4533201ee7/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
57%
07:00 16:00 22:00
00:00 05:00 10:00 15:00 20:00 24:00
![Page 39: Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI Data · Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting? •Now have AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) data •The pattern of](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022040912/5e86bf83b2b72d4533201ee7/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Lingering issues
• Behind the meter solar reductions
• Identify customers with solar
• Customers with EVs
• Phase identification
• Forecast by customer type
![Page 40: Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting Using AMI Data · Why Hourly Distribution Circuit Load Forecasting? •Now have AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) data •The pattern of](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022040912/5e86bf83b2b72d4533201ee7/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
www.electricities.com
FOLLOW US ON SOCIAL MEDIA:
@ncpublicpower
facebook.com/Electricities
@ElectriCitiesNC