Disaster imagination solidum

DISASTER IMAGINATION:

Key to Building Resilience to

Extreme Natural Events

Understanding Choices Forum

Ramon Aboitiz Foundation Inc.

July 15, 2014

Renato U. Solidum, Jr.

Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology

Department of Science and Technology

The Philippines is prone to many natural hazards

due to its geologic and geographic setting

THE REALITY

Earthquake Tsunami Volcanic eruption

Typhoon Storm surge Flood Landslide

Casualties

Dead 1,067

Injured 2,668

Missing 834

Damaged Houses 216,817

Total Cost of Damages ≈ Php 40B From NDRRMC

DEC 2012 TYPHOON PABLO

European Pressphoto Agency

Tacloban Airport

Impacts (as of 10 Jan 2014, NDRRMC):

• 6190 dead

• 1785 missing

• 28,626 injured

• 16,078,181 persons

affected

• 4,095,280 persons

displaced

• 1,140,332 houses

destroyed

• PhP 36,690,882,497 cost

of direct damage

(infrastructure and

agriculture)

Hazards:

Severe wind:

• 235 kph 10-min sustained wind

• 315 kph 1-min sustained wind

Storm surge: ~ 5 m

NOV 2013 SUPERTYPHOON YOLANDA

M7.8 1990 Luzon Earthquake

M6.9 2012 Negros Or Earthquake

(~90 destructive earthquakes for past 400 years)

EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITY IN THE PHILIPPINES

M7.2 2013 BOHOL EARTHQUAKE

Affected Bohol (Intensity VII-

VIII) and Cebu (Intensity VII)

Casualties:

Dead - 222

Missing - 8

Injured - 976

Houses damaged:

Total - 14,512

Partial - 58,490

Roads, bridges, seaports

damaged

JULY 16, 1990 M7.8 LUZON

EARTHQUAKE

Intensity Description

VIII - Very Destructive

VII - Destructive

VI - Very strong

Affected area: Central and northern Luzon Casualties: Dead – 1,283 Injured – 2,786 Missing – 321 Houses Damaged: Total – 25,305 Partial – 77,249

IMPACTS OF THE 1990 LUZON

EARTHQUAKE

Baguio City Public Market

Baguio Park Hotel Landslide

Liquefaction

LESSONS FROM THE 1990 LUZON

EARTHQUAKE

• Public need to respond properly during

earthquakes

• Water, power, transport, communication lines

affected

• need to simulate hazards and effects for

appropriate preparedness and response

• Implementation of building code standards,

proper land use

• Need for many trained search and rescue

groups, medical responders

Can large earthquakes affect

Cebu and vicinity?

1907 to 2014 January (PHIVOLCS Catalogue)

<3 4 5 6 7 8

Magnitude (Ms)

Depth (km)

0 35 70 150 800

SEISMICITY OF CEBU AND VICINITY

1787 M7.4

1892 M5.5

1892 M5.0

1942 M7.3

1922 M6.0

1922 M6.2

1888,1887

1941 M5.8

1955 M6.1

1925 6.8

1936 M6.8

1941 M7.0 d600

1926 M6.2 d520

1948 M8.3

1885 M7.0

1902 1919 M6.4

HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKES (1600-1956)

Cebu City -- earthquake of Intensity VII-VIII.

• The area of destruction comprised the city of Cebu and the small

island of Mactan. Within this area, the shocks damaged old

structures, generally built of coral limestone blocks. Two very old

walls, remnants of ruined buildings, and consequently standing

without any connection to other structures came down by the force

of the shocks; one in the centre of the city and another in the

suburb of St. Nicolas. Tile roofs, very numerous in Cebu, suffered

more severely. Three of them partly slid down, one very steep and

old of the Recoletos Church and Convent and another of a private

house. The roof of the Bishop's Palace partially caved in.

• Cracks in the soil were noticed chiefly in limestone banks on the

seashore of Mactan .

• Some kilometres north of Cebu, fissures were caused in alluvial

soils and on the slopes of hills composed of limestone.

1922 Jan 28 4:41 Cebu Island

EARTHQUAKE ACCOUNTS

How do we reduce the risks from

earthquakes in Cebu and vicinity?

Exposure

(people,

assets,

business in

hazard area)

Hazard

(threat)

DISASTER RISK (potential loss)

REDUCED DISASTER RISK

Hazard Exposure reduced

Vulnerability reduced Vulnerability

(susceptibility to

damaging effects –

physical, social),

coping and adaptive

capacities

• Evacuation

• Land Use Planning

• Relocation

• Education, Awareness

• Preparedness

• Response

• Mitigation

- Engineering

- Non-engineering

- Risk transfer

• Hazard and Risk

Assessment

• Monitoring and

Warning

• Business Continuity

(company, staff and

families)

(Solidum, 2012)

DISASTER RISK REDUCTION

DISASTER IMAGINATION

RECOVERY TIME OBJECTIVE (RTO)

`

Rate

of O

pera

tion

100%

xx%

0%

Recovery Time

Reduced

business

Core

Business

DISASTER

Recovery

Tim

e O

bje

ctiv

e

Core

Busin

ess R

ecovery

Norm

al O

pera

tion

Desired window of time when business or service

would have recovered xx% of normal operation

• HAZARDS AND RISK ASSESSMENT – potentially affected areas, who and what will be affected

• MONITORING - real time instrumentation if possible to detect early; understand the processes

• WARNING AND DISSEMINATION – forecasting and communicating down to local residents the warning and actions to take

• PROPER RESPONSE

- Awareness, education

- Preparedness – evacuation sites and procedures; drills

- Planning for efficient and effective response - - standard operating procedures, - - emergency operation plans

EARLY WARNING, SAVING LIVES

HAZARD AND IMPACT ASSESSMENT

SOFTWARE (REDAS by DOST-PHIVOLCS)

• Hazard assessment

module

- tools for assessing

earthquake hazards;

preparing scenarios

- static maps of various

hazards (geological,

hydro-meteorological)

can be integrated

* being shared with local governments,

national agencies, academic partners

Multi-Hazard Maps In REDAS

Albay Pyroclastic Flow and Lahar‏

Cavite Ground Shaking

‏

Cavite Tsunami

Cavite Rain-Induced

Landslide

Cavite Flood ‏

Cavite Storm Surge‏



• Exposure data base

module

- contains database of

elements at risk,

example: location at

attributes of houses,

buildings,

infrastructure,

population

- can be updated by

local government



• Impact

assessment

module

- can estimate

damage to

buildings,

casualty,

economic

loss

A typical classroom scene

Building risk database using GPS

Hands on Training

Hazard Scenario for Cebu

and Vicinity

EARTHQUAKE-RELATED HAZARDS

Tsunami Fire

Ground Shaking Liquefaction

Landslide

Faulting (Ground)

Rupture

Fault

FAULTS

Strike Slip (Horizontal)

Normal

Thrust

• fractures where rock

movement has taken

place and earthquakes

have been produced

• active faults are

those that have

produced earthquakes

historically or has

moved for the last

10,000 years

1990 Luzon

FAULTING OR GROUND RUPTURE

FAULTING OR GROUND RUPTURE

Taiwan Earthquake, 1999

Earthquake Generators in Region VII

• West Panay Fault

(WPF)

• Negros Trench

(NT)

• Faults in Negros

(NF)

• Faults in Cebu (CF)

• Faults in Bohol

(BF) NT

WPF

NF CF

BF

GROUND RUPTURE HAZARD MAP FOR CEBU

AVOIDING EFFECTS GROUND RUPTURE

• Avoid

construction of

structures on

top of an active

fault

• House or

building should

be at least 5

meters away

from the trace

of the fault

GROUND SHAKING

TYPES OF SHAKING

• Up and down;

- first felt by people near the epicenter

- not felt by people far from epicenter

• Sideways;

- felt after up and down by people near

epicenter

- first felt by people far from epicenter

MAGNITUDE

Energy released during

earthquake.

INTENSITY

Effect or felt strength at the surface

STRENGTH OF EARTHQUAKE:

MAGNITUDE VERSUS INTENSITY

Earthquake Intensity Scale

I - Scarcely Perceptible

II - Slightly Felt

III - Weak

IV - Moderately Strong

V - Strong

VI - Very Strong

VII - Destructive

VII - Very Destructive

IX - Devastating

X - Completely Devastating

Scenario: Magnitude 7.5 Earthquake in Cebu

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Not felt I II III IV V VI VII VIII (PEIS)

SIMULATED

INTENSITIES

PEIS High VII - VIII (very

destructive) in most areas

of Cebu, Bais and

Dumaguete

PEIS VII (destructive) in

northern tip of Cebu,

northern half and western

areas of Bohol and many

areas of Negros (eastern

and central)

PEIS VI (very strong and

slightly damaging) in

western areas of Negros

and Siquijor Island

PEIS V (strong, able to

cause panic) in Leyte,

Panay, northwest Mindanao

GROUND SHAKING

Intensity VIII (Very Destructive Shaking)

1995 Kobe Earthquake

RESPONDING TO A STRONG

GROUND SHAKING SCENARIO (1)

(1) INSPECT HOUSES, BUILDINGS,

INFRASTRUCTURES

- How safe is your house?

- Government and private buildings?

- Churches? Mosques? Malls?

HOW SAFE IS MY HOUSE: SELF-

CHECK FOR EARTHQUAKE SAFETY

(3) SIMULATE RESPONSE

• conduct drills

(2) PLAN

• How do you respond during the strong

shaking?

- Where are the safe spots?

- What do you do? Drop, Cover and Hold

• What do you do after? Plan how to respond

RESPONDING TO A STRONG

GROUND SHAKING SCENARIO (2)

• Loose, water-rich sediments behave like

liquid during strong ground shaking.

• Sediments are rearranged into a more

compact state.

LIQUEFACTION

LIQUEFACTION

Subsidence of bridge column Subsidence of building, roads

Dagupan 1990

Fissuring of roads

Mindoro 1994

Dagupan 1990

La Union, 1990

Damage to buried pipes, tanks

Localities prone to liquefaction

a) water-saturated (shallow water table), low-lying

b) Have loose

(unconsolidated), sandy or silty deposits

• river banks, abandoned

rivers, flood plains

• coastlines

• swamps

• reclaimed land

Liquefaction-Prone Areas in Cebu and Vicinity

• Down slope movement of rocks, soil and other debris

commonly triggered by heavy rain and strong earthquakes

Effects:

• - erosion

• - burial

• - blockage

Road destroyed by quake-triggered

landslide China (2008). From Nie, CEA.

LANDSLIDE

Earthquake-triggered Landslide Hazard Map for

Cebu and Vicinity

Sea waves, small to large, resulting from disturbance of

seawater by undersea earthquakes, landslides, and

volcanic eruptions, and meteor impact

March 11,2011 Japan Tsunami From Kyodo News

TSUNAMI

Framework for Reducing Risks

from Strong Earthquakes

EARTHQUAKE RISK REDUCTION

• Develop governance and business system

resistant to earthquake impact

• Improve urban structures

• Enhance current risk and emergency

management

• Enhance community disaster management

capacities

• Formulation of reconstruction system

• Promotion of research and technology

development

PRIORITY STRATEGIC APPROACH TO

CONTEND WITH STRONG EARTHQUAKE (1)

Focus Concept

1 – Strengthen

Legal

Framework and

Institutional

Capacity for

Disaster

Management

• Enhance Legal Basis and

support

• Strengthen Institutional

Capacity for Mitigation,

Preparedness and Response

as well as Inter-Institutional

Coordination



Focus Concept

2 – Build

Capacity for

Relief and

Recovery

• Enhance Emergency Health

and Medical Response

System

• Establish Emergency

Transportation System

• Secure sea ports, airports

• Secure water source and

supply

• Secure power and

communication systems



Focus Concept

3 – Strengthen

Community

Preparedness

for Earthquakes

and Tsunamis

• Enhance self-reliance and

mutual help for efficient risk

management capacity

• Inculcate Disaster Mitigation

Culture among populace



Focus Concept

4 – Reduce

Seismic

Dangers of

Residential

Structures

• Strengthen Buildings,

Structures

• Promote and Institute Fire

Safety

• Promote and support further

researches on seismic

hazards and better building

technology



Focus Concept

5 – Enhance

City, Provincial,

Regional

System to

Become

Resistant to

Impact of

Earthquakes

• Protect stability of

government function

• Ensure continuity of socio-

economic systems

-> Business or Service

Continuity

• Cebu and vicinity can be affected by various natural

hazards – including earthquakes.

• Earthquakes and tsunamis are sudden onset events,

can cause wide-spread impacts.

• Appropriate preparedness, mitigation and response

activities must be based on appropriate hazard and

impact scenarios.

• Possible hazards and its effects in localities and the

whole region must be imagined to craft and implement

appropriate solutions. • Information, tools are available for communities to be

safer. Let us collectively make our communities safer

and resilient to disasters.

KEY MESSAGES

/PHIVOLCS

@phivolcs.dost

www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph

Earthquake & Tsunami (24/7):

Tel. Numbers

+632 929-9254

+632 426-1468 loc 124 / 125

Fax number

+632 927-1087

Volcano (24/7):

Tel. Numbers

+632 426-1468 loc 127

Telefax number

+632 927-1095

IEC materials:

+632 426-1468 loc 128

+632 927-4524

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