European Commission

11Directorate General for Energy and TransportDirectorate General for Energy and Transport

Discussion for a co-ordinated trans-European Deployment Plan

for ERTMS

15 June 200415 June 2004ERTMS Working GroupERTMS Working Group

Jean-Arnold Vinois Head of Unit “Rail Transport and Interoperability”

European Commission

22

Orders of Magnitude of CostsOrders of Magnitude of CostsOrders of Magnitude of CostsOrders of Magnitude of Costs

2 000 M€

(25 000 km)

Full Full implementation implementation ETCS level 2 on ETCS level 2 on HSL TEN-THSL TEN-T

0.08 M€ / km

Unit cost ETCS level 2 (double track - interlocking)

78 000 km

(25 000 km)

EU-15 TEN-T network

(of which HSL) 2010

153 000 km

EU-15 Rail network length 2004

4 200 M€

30 % European fleet retrofitted

0.4 M€

Unit cost ETCS level 2 per loco

(AEIF)

35 000

EU-15 Locomotives and railcars

Directorate General for Energy and TransportDirectorate General for Energy and Transport

European Commission

33

Orders of Magnitude of BenefitsOrders of Magnitude of BenefitsEcorys ResultsEcorys Results

Orders of Magnitude of BenefitsOrders of Magnitude of BenefitsEcorys ResultsEcorys Results

Benefit itemBenefit item Net present value Net present value (in million (in million

Euro)Euro)

Direct impactsDirect impacts 63136313

Impact on the rolling stock industry 72

Impact on infrastructure managers: 89

- Maintenance costs 45

- Rail capacity 59

- Rail infrastructure costs -15

Impact on railway undertakings: 3385

- Operating costs 2709

- Operating revenues passengers 656

- Operating revenues freight 20

Impact on users: 2768

- Travel time and costs ‘remaining’ passengers 1670

- Travel time and costs ‘modal-shift’ passengers 47

- Travel time and costs ‘remaining’ freight 1039

- Travel time and costs ‘modal-shift’ freight 12

- Punctuality rail No benefit

Indirect impacts:Indirect impacts:631631

External impacts:External impacts:568568

- Noise production rolling stock No benefit

- Rail safety 14

- Environmental (air pollution, global warming, noise) 149

- Accidents315

- Road infrastructure maintenance 13

- Congestion costs (Transport user costs) 77

TotalTotal 75137513

European Commission

44

Net cashflow TSI CCS (in million Euro)

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035

2037

2039

2041

2043

Net cashflow TSI CCS

Orders of Magnitude of BenefitsOrders of Magnitude of BenefitsEcorys ResultsEcorys Results

Orders of Magnitude of BenefitsOrders of Magnitude of BenefitsEcorys ResultsEcorys Results

European Commission

55

Overview of costs and benefits Overview of costs and benefits (results expressed in net present (results expressed in net present value) at different time horizonsvalue) at different time horizons

20 years 40 years

Benefits:

-Direct impacts 2104 6313

-Indirect impacts 210 631

-External impacts 48 568

Total 2362 7513

Overview of costs and benefits Overview of costs and benefits (results expressed in net present (results expressed in net present value) at different discount ratesvalue) at different discount rates

4% 6% 8%

Benefits:

-Direct impacts 10805 6313 3808

-Indirect impacts 1080 631 381

-External impacts 1104 568 276

Total 12989 7513 4465

Sensibility AnalysisSensibility AnalysisSensibility AnalysisSensibility Analysis

European Commission

66Directorate General for Energy and TransportDirectorate General for Energy and Transport

A clear need for EU financial support A clear need for EU financial support to accelerate the baseline scenario for to accelerate the baseline scenario for

ETCS implementationETCS implementation

European Commission

77

Discussion for EU deployment planDiscussion for EU deployment planDiscussion for EU deployment planDiscussion for EU deployment plan

1/ A Corridors’ Approach based on different layers:1/ A Corridors’ Approach based on different layers:

- TEN-T netwok and Pan-European Corridors (30 Priority Projects)

- National Deployment Plans (Projects where implementation is decided)

- RNE preconstructed train paths

- Traffic Forecasts

To achieve a coherent and co-ordinated trans-European implementation

Aternative approaches? Proposals?Aternative approaches? Proposals?

European Commission

88

European Commission

99

2/ A Reasonable Timeframe (2005-2015) 2/ A Reasonable Timeframe (2005-2015)

- to accelerate the « national strategies » and baseline scenario resulting from the legal demands (>2020)

- to foster the iterative and automatic change rate (see situation GSM-R) resulting from the absence of alternatives

- to match the EU guidelines for the development of the TEN network (2020)

- to use the opportunity/open window of the EU “new financial perspectives” post 2006

- to match to “softwares” evolutions and change control management of these tools

Discussion for EU deployment planDiscussion for EU deployment planDiscussion for EU deployment planDiscussion for EU deployment plan

And what about the industry ability to And what about the industry ability to offer the adequate services ?offer the adequate services ?

European Commission

1010

Discussion for EU deployment planDiscussion for EU deployment planDiscussion for EU deployment planDiscussion for EU deployment plan

3/ Proposals3/ Proposals

- to adopt an iterative approach mixing national deployment plans for HS, EU guidelines, national deployment plans for CR (see slide …) to finalize an European HS and CR

deployment plan in 2005-2006

- to create an “ERTMS coordonateur” (according to legal provisions of the Decision …/2004/EC amending Decision 1692/96/EC) to facilitate relations between project

promoters, ERA, the Commission and Member States;

• ERTMS coordonateur?

• corridor coordonateur?

- to propose a better and increased use of the TEN budget line in the framework of the new EU financial perspectives (on-board and on track equipments in a package) – 50 % of EU co-financing