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Contents
DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | Feb 2018
TOPIC OF THE MONTH
U.S. Truck Power Shortages
HIGH LEVEL DEVELOPMENT
MARKET OUTLOOK
Freight Rates and Volume Development
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK & DEMAND DEVELOPMENT
CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT
CARRIERS
REGULATIONS
? DID YOU KNOW?
Containership Deliveries, Deletions and Orders
Top 15 Carriers' Operated Capacity Growth
BACK-UP
PUBLIC
3 3
Topic of the Month
U.S. Truck Power Shortages
U.S. Truck Power Capacity/Shortages (major factors impacting truck capacity)
• Driver shortage due to the recent ELD mandate.
• Drivers are no longer able to exceed their hours of operation limit
• Infrastructure and congestion
• Increasing cost of operations and labor
• Inclement weather conditions in the Central and Southeast regions caused terminal and road closures, creating a backlog for the port and rail terminal affected
• Limited free time at the US inland rail ramps
• Chassis shortage on a nationwide basis. There are more coming out and less going back in
The Electronic Logging Device (ELD) Factor
The ELD rule was mandated by congress and is intended to help create a safer work environment for drivers, and the public. It also makes it easier and faster to accurately
track, manage, and share records of on-duty status data. An ELD synchronizes with a vehicle engine to automatically record driving time, for easier, more accurate hours of
service (HOS) recording.
What is the impact?
With the current congestion at the terminals, pre-pulls could be required or port detention could be implemented in areas where currently not assessed by the motor carriers.
Driver free time could be reduced and the cost-per-hour increased once in detention. Layover charges or tiered rating could be implemented on drayage moves 250 miles or
higher. Increased utilization of the inland rail terminals, bringing a heavier volume of local drayage
What can be done to reduce impact?
Ensure customs clearance is done at the port of discharge vs. railing in-bond
Understand how the drivers hours and the ELD mandate could affect your shipment deliveries
Ensure freight payment and the Original Bill of Lading are submitted as early as possible
Divide the volume on multiple sailings and if on same vessel on different Bill Of Ladings
Offer flexible loading & unloading timeslots for drivers 24/7 if possible
Provide quicker loading & unloading turn around eg by having freight staged ready for pick up, or labor ready for unloading
Working directly with our centrally managed drayage partner network on merchant haulage options for pick-ups and deliveries to gain better control of our inland drayage
nationwide
DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | Feb 2018
Source: DGF
PUBLIC
4 4
High Level Market Development – Supply and Demand
1’000
800
600
400
200
0
Q1
’18
Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1
16
Q1
17
Q4 Q3 Q2
2’000
1’500
1’000
500
0
Q2 Q1
16
Q1
’18
Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1
17
Q4 Q3
800
600
400
200
0
Q4 Q3 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q1
17
Q1
16
Q4 Q1
’18
BIX 380
BIX MGO
SHANGHAI
CONTAINERIZED
FREIGHT INDEX
(SCFI)3)
WORLD
CONTAINER
INDEX (WCI)2)
BUNKER
PRICE
INDEX 5)
ECONOMIC
OUTLOOK 1)
GDP GROWTH
BY REGION
Source: 1)real GDP, Global Insight, Copyright © IHS, Q2 2018 . All rights reserved; 2) Drewry Container Forecaster –
Forecast global supply-demand balance; 3) Shanghai Shipping Exchange, in USD/20ft container and USD/40ft container for
US routes, 15 routes from Shanghai, 4) Global Insight, Drewry, 5) Bunker Index, in USD/metric ton, Bunker Index MGO (BIX
MGO) is the Average Global Bunker Price for all marine gasoil (MGO) port prices published on the Bunker Index website,
Bunker Index 380 CST (BIX 380) is the Average Global Bunker Price for all 380 centistoke (cSt) port prices published on the
Bunker Index website
DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | Feb 2018
2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F CAGR
(2018-2021)
EURO 2.3% 2.1% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9%
MEA 3.1% 3.3% 3.6% 3.8% 4.7% 3.6%
AMER 2.2% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.3%
ASPA 5.0% 4.9% 4.7% 4.6% 4.8% 4.8%
DGF World 3.2% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1%
PUBLIC
Supply Growth %
Demand Growth % 0%
1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%
2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F
SUPPLY/DEMAND GROWTH RATE (ANNUALIZED), IN %1
5 5
Market Outlook February 2018 – Major Trades
Rates from Asia to North America are raising ahead of contract season.
KEY Strong
Increase ++
Moderate
Increase +
No
Change =
Moderate
Janline -
Strong
Janline - -
EXPORT REGION IMPORT REGION CAPACITY RATE
EURO AMNO = +
AMLA = =
ASPA = -
MENAT = =
SSA = =
AMNO AMLA = +
ASPA = =
EURO - =
MENAT = +
SSA = =
EXPORT REGION IMPORT REGION CAPACITY RATE
AMLA AMNO = =
ASPA = =
EURO = =
MENAT = =
SSA = =
ASPA ASPA - - ++
AMNO = +
AMLA + -
EURO = +
MENAT = +
OCEANIA - =
DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | Feb 2018
Source: DGF
PUBLIC
6 6
Market Outlook February 2018 – Ocean Freight Rates Major Trades Market outlook on smaller trades available in the back-up
O C E A N F R E I G H T R A T E S O U T L O O K
ASPA – EURO The overall space situation is getting tight before the CNY. An extensive blank sailing program is in place by all alliances and will start
from wk7 onwards
EURO – ASPA & MEA Part of the carriers are trying to keep rates stable; even pushing upwards from certain areas. Others are out with reductions. Translated
to overall volume, it means ongoing slow decay, though.
ASPA – AMLA
Rates to ECSA came down due to 5 extra loaders in Jan 2018 and also PIL entry into this trade. But rates are expected to increase from
Feb 2018, for CNY rush. No blank sailing announcement so far to ECSA. But for WCSA/MX, there are numerous blank sailing for CNY
and shared with internal stake holders.
ASPA – AMNO Full ship situation till CNY. Most carriers are facing stronger rollovers into USEC. All the Alliances have also announced their blank
sailings from week 8 to 10.
EURO – AMNO Ocean rates are stable but US haulage rates are on the up rise due to ELD and shortage.
ASPA – MENAT Pre CNY rush is now ongoing. Carriers has successfully pull through some mitigated GRI into MENAT lanes. Expected this to continue,
with more upcoming blank sailings in February.
ASPA – ASPA
Space ex China to India and Pakistan is expected to be extremely tight as almost 80% of the services in the market will be blanked from
week 7 to week 9 (12 Feb-28 Feb). Various blank sailings have also been planned on the pure IA trade, for those same weeks.The
congestion at Chittagong will continue because of high container yard utilisation. Delays are to be expected.
AMNO – EURO USEC capacity will decrease significantly week 5 & 7 where as USWC capacity will increase drastically week 7 & 9
Rates remain stable
DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | Feb 2018
Source: DGF
PUBLIC
7 7
Economic Outlook & Demand Development
Wrapping up 2017 and Looking at 2018
Source: DPDHL Group Macroeconomic Outlook, Global Executive Summary, IHS, Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing,
DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | Feb 2018
PUBLIC
EURO European growth projection has been raised to 2.3% in 2017 and 2.0% in 2018, mainly driven by a stronger Germany. Continuously improving
labor markets, decent global demand, improving financial stability and currently elevated business and consumer confidence support the growth.
AMNO US economy has proven resilient despite two devastating hurricanes in the third quarter. Euro has gained 10% against US dollar since January
2017, while Canadian dollar remained at relatively stable level. Therefore, the regional forecast rose to 2.3% in 2017.
ASPA In relative terms, the Asia-Pacific region continues to lead global growth. The region is projected to expand 5.0% in 2017 and 4.9% in 2018,
considerably stronger than the world’s GDP growth rate average of 3.2%.
EMERGING
MARKETS
AMLA: Regional GDP forecast improved for 2017 to 1.5%, as Argentina and Brazil came out of recession. Latin America's GDP growth will
continue on a soft accele-ration path, reaching 2.2% in 2018. Brazilian economy is expec-ted to expand modestly in the near term, while
Mexican outlook is clouded by tight fiscal and monetary policies and prolonged renegotiation of NAFTA.
MEA: Economic outlook slightly brightened for 2017. Growth in 2018 is expected to be above 3%. On the downside, Qatar’s political rift with the
GC3+1 (Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt) as well as IS and conflicts in Syria, Yemen, and Libya pose risk to the regional outlook
DEMAND
DEVELOPMENT
European exports forecast for 2017 improved to 4.5% - Eurozone Manufacturing PMI was above 60 points in November 2017 and at its best
reading apart from April 2000’s series-record high.
USA: On the heels of improved global demand and the depreciation of the U.S. dollar, exports are forecasted to grow 2.9% in 2017 and 3.6% in
2018. Manufacturing PMI has leveled out in November 2017, but remains strong heading into the end of the year
ASPA: 2017 and 2018 export forecasts for major Asian economies have brightened. Chinese manufacturing PMIs signaled expansion in
November. Japanese Manufacturing PMI continued expansion in November 2017, however, continuously strong growth of incoming orders put
pressure on supply chains
AMLA: Brazil manufacturing PMI signaled a solid improvement in November 2017. Mexican PMI signaled contraction in October 2017 as a
result of the earthquakes and volatile exchange rate, but expanded again in November.
MEA: Export outlook was revised down for 2017 and 2018 to 3.4% and 3.6% respectively. UAE PMI signaled strong expansion in November.
8 8
Capacity Development
Source: Alphaliner, carriers
C A P A C I T Y D E V E L O P M E N T
The global containership fleet is expected to grow by 5.6% this year, after taking into account projected vessel deliveries, deferrals and scrapping, to reach 22.28
Mteu by the end of 2018. The pace of the container fleet growth is accelerating from 1.8%, recorded in 2016, and 3.7% in 2017. Total new containership capacity
due to be delivered in 2018 is expected to reach 1.5 Mteu. More than 50% of this is expected to be made up of ULCS from 14,000 teu to 21,000 teu mostly
scheduled for delivery in the first half of the year, with over 1.2Mteu due before the end of June. Several carriers have however taken action by deferring delivers from
2018 to the next year.
Megamax Containership deliveries in Jan 2018 :
MARSEILLE MAERSK and MANCHESTER MAERSK ‘EEE-Mk II’-class ships (20,568 teu) are delivered to Maersk early Jan ‘18. Both vessels have joined the
Maersk-MSC Far East – Europe ‘AE-7/Condor’ loop.
OOCL INDONESIA (21,413 teu) is delivered on 18 Jan ’18 to OOCL and joins OCEAN Alliance Asia-Europe ‘NEU1’ loop
COSCO SHIPPING ARIES (19,273 teu) is delivered to Cosco Shipping and joins the OCEAN Alliance Asia-Europe NEU2’ loop
When the OCEAN Alliance and THE Alliance announced their new 2018 service networks no new Far East – Europe or Far East – North America loops were
announced. Instead, the expected in crease in capacity will be achieved through the injection of ULCS new buildings.
On top of 5 extra loaders in January (CMA, COSCO, Evergreen, 2 Hamburg Sued/Maersk), PIL has launched its own Far East – ECSA string in Jan ‘18, adding
over 5% to the Far East – ECSA trade capacity. Spot freight rates have already fallen since the end of Dec. These moves come ahead of a major revamp of the
trade, resulting from the withdrawal of Hamburg Sued from the ‘Multicarrier Loop 2’ vessel sharing agreement that was demanded by Chinese regulators as part of
the conditions for its acquisition by Maersk.
Shanghai, the world’s biggest port, was the first-ever port to break the 40 mTEU barrier in Dec ‘17, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.3%. Second ranked
port of Singapore is expected to reach a total of 33.7 mTEU in 2017.
The idle containership fleet of vessels with > 500 TEU has fallen to 99 ships as at 8 Jan ’18, down significantly compared to the same time last year when 351
ships were unemployed.
Source: Alphaliner, carriers
DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | Feb 2018
PUBLIC
9 9
Carriers
Drewry’s Altman Z-Score as of December 2017
Source: Drewry Sea & Air Shipper Insight, June 2018; 1) parent of Cosco Container Lines; Z-score is calculated as follows: T1 = (Current Assets - Current Liabilities) / Total Assets, T2 = Retained Earnings / Total
Assets, T3 = Annualized EBIT / Total Assets, T4 = Book Value of Equity / Total Liabilities, T5 = Annualized Sales / Total Assets, Z-score bankruptcy rating = 1.2*T1 + 1.4*T2 + 3.3*T3 + 0.6*T4 + 1.0*T5
DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | Feb 2018
PUBLIC
Total Current Total Current
OOIL (parent of OOCL) 6 months 30. Jun 17 million US$ 2'898 110 9'693 2'783 4'592 5'101 1'437 4'529 2.03
AP Moller-Maersk 9 months 30. Sep 17 million US$ 22'953 322 60'260 25'305 30'954 29'306 14'909 26'665 1.99
CMA CGM 9 months 30. Sep 17 million US$ 15'633 1'291 19'712 6'140 5'612 14'099 5'801 4'674 1.94
Wan Hai 9 months 30. Sep 17 million NT$ 44'970 2'480 75'688 30'509 34'074 41'614 20'588 11'142 1.79
NYK group 6 months 30. Sep 17 billion Yen 1'064 13 2'077 589 587 1'489 505 331 1.57
K Line group 6 months 30. Sep 17 billion Yen 579 6 1'063 406 258 804 283 69 1.55
China Cosco (parent of Cosco Container Lines) (1) 9 months 30. Sep 17 million RMB 67'599 4'567 132'443 45'728 42'981 89'462 42'854 32'765 1.49
Evergreen Marine Corp 9 months 30. Sep 17 million NT$ 113'068 5'893 193'384 62'178 59'025 134'359 45'053 11'810 1.37
MOL group 6 months 30. Sep 17 billion Yen 819 11 2'188 455 687 1'501 441 368 1.30
Hapag-Lloyd Holding 9 months 30. Sep 17 million euro 7'314 268 15'817 2'840 5'780 10'037 3'323 3'157 1.28
Pacific International Lines 6 months 30. Jun 17 million US$ 1'878 98 5'698 1'290 1'804 3'894 1'907 1'034 1.17
Yang Ming 9 months 30. Sep 17 million NT$ 99'263 501 131'096 24'696 17'670 113'426 44'536 -1'752 0.92
Hyundai Merchant Marine 9 months 30. Sep 17 billion Won 3'840 -289 3'442 1'206 636 2'806 774 -2'467 0.40
Zim 9 months 30. Sep 17 million US$ 2'217 115 1'827 590 -82 1'909 653 -1'879 0.39
None of the carriers manage to reach the > 2.99 “safe“ zone, and only OOIL reaches the caution zone, all the remaining carriers are in the distress zone.
The Z-score is a statistical analysis to predict a company’s probability of failure in the next 2 years, using data from the company’s financial statement.
A Z-score ≥ 2.99 = company is “safe”.
A Z-score between 1.8 and 2.99 = exercise caution (“grey zone”).
A Z-score ≤ 1.8 = higher risk of the company going bankrupt (“distress zone”). All indications based on these financial figures only.
Book Value of EquityEBITNet SalesUnitPeriod EndedPeriodCompanyAssets Liabilities
Retained Earnings Z-Score
10 10
Carriers
Source: Alphaliner, carriers
C A R R I E R S
NYK, MOL and K Line have announced in a joint statement on 18 Jan ’18 that their new joint venture, ‘Ocean Network Express’ (ONE), has received all
necessary merger approvals from local competition authorities, after clearing the last regulatory hurdle, with the South Africa Competition Tribunal granting their
conditional approval. South Africa was the last country to approve the merger as all other jurisdictions had already approved the move as of the end of June 2017.
The merger was first announced on 31 October ’16 and the new company is expected to start its operations on 1 Apr ’18, as initially planned.
Maersk and IBM have announced their intentions to form a Blockchain-based JV. The aim of the new company will be to offer a jointly developed global trade
digitization platform built on open standards and ambitiously designed for use by the entire global shipping industry, addressing the need for more transparency
and simplicity in the movement of goods across borders and trading zones. Parties that have piloted the platform include DuPont, Dow Chemical, Tetra Pak, Port
Houston, Rotterdam Port Community System Portbase, the Customs Administration of the Netherlands and U.S. Customs and Border Protection. They also have
received interest from General Motors, Procter & Gamble and Agility. The success of the platform will depend on whether Maersk and IBM can convince the entire
supply chain ecosystem, including shippers, freight forwarders, ocean carriers, ports an customs authorities, to sign up. If they do not, the entire project will fall
down.
Source: Alphaliner, Ti, carriers
DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | Feb 2018
PUBLIC
11 11
Regulations
Source: Alphaliner, carriers
R E G U L A T I O N S
GST Amendments on Export shipment out of India
The Government of India Notification no. 2/2018 – Central Tax (Rate) dated 25 January 2018, has exempted GST on freight charges for all shipments originating
from India, but same will be applicable on all origin charges e.g. custom clearance, transportation etc.
1. To exempt the service by way of transportation of goods from India to a place outside India by air
2. To exempt the service by way of transportation of goods from India to a place outside India by sea
Post this notification, received 25 January 2018, GST is exempted only on Freight Charges for all Airfreight and Oceanfreight for shipments originating from India.
This exemption is valid through 30 September 2018
Source: DHL
DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | Feb 2018
PUBLIC
12 12
Did You Know ?
Containership Deliveries, Deletions and Orders by Year, in mTEU
DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | Feb 2018
Source: Alphaliner
PUBLIC
ORDERBOOK-TO-FLEET RATIO
At 1,2 mTEU for FY’2017 (+26% vs. 2016’s 0.9 mTEU), the total capacity of
ships delivered during 2017 clearly exceeded the vessel ordering. Last
year’s order volume saw the orderbook-to-fleet ratio fall from 15.7% at the
end of 2016 to its current value of 12.6%. The capacity delivered in 2017 is
much smaller than than the record total of 1,735,000 TEU observed in 2015.
DELETIONS
Total deletions from the world container fleet reached 421’562 TEU in 2017,
down 35.8% compared to 2016’s record of 664’717 TEU.
COMING IN 2018
Marginal order increase is expected vs. 2017. Carriers including HMM and
Yang Ming will likely place orders, while several non-operating owners remain
keen to take on new-building projects at the current attractive price level.
Vessel deliveries are expected to increase to 1.5 mTEU
Deletions, mainly from scrapping, are expected to fall to 350’000 TEU. This
would push container fleet growth to 5.6% in 2018, compared to a 3.7%
growth recorded in 2017.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (F)
To
tal
Cap
acit
y,
in m
TE
U
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0
-0.5
-1.0
VESSEL ORDERING
New ship containership orders increased by 140% in 2017, reaching 671’641
TEU, vs. only 280’480 mTEU in 2016.
This still remains significantly lower than the 2,2 mTEU contracted in 2015 –
before the IMO NOx Tier III requirements, making ships more expensive to
build, came into effect.
13 13
Did You Know ? (2/2)
Top 15 Carriers’ Operated Capacity Growth, Jan 2018 vs. Jan 2017, in mTEU and %
DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | Feb 2018
Source: Alphaliner
PUBLIC
2,5
1 3,1
5
1,6
2
0,3
7
0,3
1
0,4
6
ZIM
0,3
5
0,3
4
0,3
5
0,2
2
HMM K Line
0,2
4
+10,9%
Wan Hai
+26,9%
+4,7%
CMA-
CGM
APL
+2,7%
MSC
4,1
5
2,8
4
+9,1%
2,1
3
-23,9% +19,4%
+17,8%
+11,1%
Maersk
Hamburg
Süd
-2,9% +7,7% +16,0% +3,5%
+19,0%
+7,1% 3,2
7
1,4
8
1,8
0
COSCO
0,9
9 1,5
5
Hapag-
Lloyd
UASC
0,5
8
Evergreen
1,0
6
0,5
7
0,6
9
OOCL
0,5
0
Yang
Ming
0,5
9
0,3
7
0,3
8
0,5
2
PIL
0,5
6
0,5
8
NYK Line MOL
2018
2017 The total vessel capacity operated by the top 15 container carriers grew by 12.6%, from 16.27 mTEU in 2017 to 18.32 mTEU
in 2018, their combined share of the global capacity increasing from 78.6% to 85.1%. This includes the capacities operated by the
companies acquired over the course of the year.
Over the same period, the total liner capacity only increased by 3.9% from 20.69 mTEU to 21.51 mTEU. However, not all of the
carriers recorded gains, as two carriers posted reductions in their operated capacity. The biggest loser was Hyundai Merchant
Marine (HMM), whose capacity fell by 23.9% from 456k TEU in 2017 to 347k TEU at the beginning of 2018. The reduction was
mainly due to the withdrawal of numerous HMM ships from the Asia – Europe and Asia – East Coast of North America routes.
In contrast, the main gainer last year was the Maersk Group, whose operated capacity grew by 26.8% to reach 1.80 mTEU on 1
January 2018, up from 1.62 mTEU twelve months earlier. The recent takeover of the German carrier Hamburg Süd contributed a
large part of the capacity increase. Without the purchase however, Maersk would still have grown organically by some 10%.
15 15
Topic of the Month
Top 12 Carriers by Operated Capacity (in Mil. TEU), December 2017
0
1
2
3
4
5
APM-Maersk,
HamburgSüd
MSC COSCO,OOCL
CMA CGM,Mercosul
Hapag-Lloyd ONE (NYK,MOL, K Line)
Evergreen Yang Ming PIL Zim HMM Wan Hai
DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | Feb 2018
Source: Alphaliner, incl. pending mergers
After triggering regulatory approval processes in 23 jurisdictions, Maersk
finally aquired Hamburg Süd.
Over the next five months, Maerk will terminate some of Hamburg Süd’s
overlapping services on certain trades.
PUBLIC
16 16
Source: DGF
Market Outlook February 2018 – Ocean Freight Rates Additional Trades (1/2)
Ocean Freight Rates Outlook
EURO – AMLA Rates are stable. Utilization is good up to full.
EURO – SSA
To East and West Africa the market is flat. To South Africa utilization of vessels is satisfactory for the carriers at around 90 – 95 %. Rates
should remain stable for the rest of Q1. Some slight rate increases are expected as of Q2. The situation in Durban has improved, but is not
back to normal yet. Carriers are still giving the opportunity to route cargo via Cape Town or Coega for on-carriages into the South African
hinterland to relieve Durban and prevent delays of cargo.
AMNO – MENAT Rates with some strategic carriers to M. East destinations will have a slight increase ($50/contr)
Space is still tight from USGC Ports and delays caused by inclement weather conditions are causing random space issues from USEC.
AMNO – SSA No Space issues or service changes on USA to South & West Africa services
Rates are stable with no increase/decrease expected until new year or in the first quarter of 2018
AMNO – AMLA
Gulf to ECSA/WCSA full. Rate increasing moderately.
USEC to WCSA full GRI’s announced end Jan 2018.
All other lanes static for next 30 days.
AMLA Exports
Increased freight rates from SAEC stabilized
Space constraints lessoned, but forecasts are still needed 2-4 weeks out
Equipment deficits affecting conditions in Colombia
Numerous surcharges and fees being imposed
Source: DGF team
Source: DGF team
Source: DGF team
DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | Feb 2018
PUBLIC
17 17
Market Outlook January 2018 – Ocean Freight Rates Additional Trades (2/2)
Freight Rates Outlook
EURO MED - AMNO nothing to be highlighted
EUR MED – AMLA nothing to be highlighted
EURO MED – ASPA stable nothing to be highlighted
EURO MED – MENAT stable nothing to be highlighted
EURO MED – SSA nothing to be highlighted
ASPA-SPAC
Peak season in view of the pre-CNY rush is expected to continue until late February. Also, moderately strong bookings are anticipated
even with the blank sailings announcements put forth by most of the shipping lines in the market. Therefore, there have been minimal
adjustments made to the freight rate at this point in time.
DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | Feb 2018
Source: DGF
PUBLIC
18 18
Market Outlook – Volume Outlook in Main Trade Lanes, 2017 Estimate & Growth
Forecast 2017/20 in %
N O R T H
A M E R I C A I n c l .
M E X I C O
3.5 mTEU +1.2%
1.7 mTEU +0.9%
1.7 mTEU +1.3%
0.2 mTEU +3.0%
N O R T H
A M E R I C A I n c l .
M E X I C O
L A T I N
A M E R I C A
E U R O P E
I n c l . M E D
11.9 mTEU +1.6%
7.0 mTEU +0.9%
7.6 mTEU +0.7%
15.8 mTEU +0.9%
7.0 mTEU +0.9%
4.5 mTEU +2.8%
2018e, in mTEU 2018e-2021e CAGR, in %
F A R E A S T
I N T R A A S I A
excl. Oceania
35.1 mTEU +3.1%
3.5 mTEU
+1.3%
2.0 mTEU
+0.7%
L A T I N
A M E R I C A
G L O B A L C O N T A I N E R T R A D E 2 0 1 7 e 1 3 8 . 5 m T E U + 2 . 3 % C A G R 2 0 1 7 e - 2 0 2 0 e
Mid-term growth is mainly driven by Asian tradelanes.
Source: Seabury
DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | Feb 2018
PUBLIC
19 19
Global Capacity Development all Trades
20 19 23 23 23 24
28 28 27
Highest scrapping level ever Idling remains high
[TTEU]
602
(May 2018)
1,324
Q4
2016
Q4
2015
1,359
Q4
2014
228
Q4
2013
779
Q4
2012
809
Q4
2011
595
Q4
2010
356
Q4
2009
1,480
Returning
capacity
well
absorbed
by
demand
3.0%
[TTEU]
381
2013
444
2012
332
2011
75
2010
131
2009
351
+239%
Apr 17
YTD
205
2016
654
2015
193
2014
Average age Net capacity growth remains low
Net capacity growth 2017E
Scrapping Net capacity
growth
2.7%
-3.3%
-1.8%
Scheduled
capacity growth
Post-ponements
7.7%
Orders placed by year [TEU m] Vessel deliveries by year [TEU m]
0.2
2015
0.0
2016
2.2
2014
1.1
2013
2.0
2012
0.4
2011
1.8
2010
0.6
2009
0.1
2008
1.2
2007
3.2
Apr17
YTD
+33%
1.2
2017E 2016
0.9
2015
1.7
2014
1.5
2013
1.3
2012
1.3
2011
1.2
2010
1.4
2009
1.2
2008
1.4
2007
1.4 15,300 TEU
Very few deliveries expected post 2018
Source: Alphaliner (May 2018), carrier views
DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | Feb 2018
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Carrier Mergers, Acquisitions and Alliances
M E R G E R S A N D A Q U I S I T I O N S
China
Shipping Cosco
OOCL TBC
Evergreen APL CMA
CGM Hapag
Lloyd
United
Arab
Shipping
Hyundai
Merchant
Marine
Hamburg
Süd Maersk
Line MSC K Line MOL NYK
Yang
Ming Hanjin
Shipping
CHINA COSCO SHIPPING EVER
GREEN CMA CGM HAPAG-LLOYD/UASC
HYUNDAI
MERCHANT
MARINE MAERSK LINE MSC
OCEAN NETWORK
EXPRESS (ONE) YANG
MING Bankrupt
A L L I A N C E S
F O R M E R A L L I A N C E S P R E S E N T A L L I A N C E S
2M MAERSK LINE
MSC OCEAN 3
CMA CGM
CHINA SHIPPING
UNITED ARAB
SHIPPING COMPANY
2M
MAERSK LINE
MSC
HMM (strategic
cooperation)
OCEAN
ALLIANCE
OOCL
CMA CGM
CHINA COSCO SHIPPING
EVERGREEN
G6
HAPAG-LLOYD
MOL
NYK
APL
HYUNDAI
MERCHANT
MARINE
OOCL
CKYHE
COSCO
EVERGREEN
HANJIN
SHPPING
K-LINE
YANG MING THE ALLIANCE
HAPAG-LLOYD/UASC
ONE
YANG MING
Source: Carriers
DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | Feb 2018
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Acronyms and Explanations
2M - Carrier Alliance: Maersk / MSC OCRS - Operational Cost Recovery surcharge
AMLA - Latin America OWS - Overweight Surcharge
AMNO - North America PH - Philippines
AR - Argentina PNW - Pacific North West
ASPA - AsiaPacific Ppt. - Percentage points
BR - Brazil PSW - Pacific South West
CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate RR(I) - Rate Restoration
CENAC - Central Amercia and Caribbean SAEC - South America East Coast
CKYHE - Carrier Alliance: Cosco, K-Line, YangMing, Hanjin and Evergreen SAWC - South America West Coast
CNC - CNC Line (Cheng Lie Navigation Co. Ltd.) SOLAS - Safety of Life at Sea
DG - Dangerous Goods SPRC - South People’s Republic of China – South China
DWT - Dead Weight Tonnage SSA - Sub-Saharan Africa
EB - Eastbound SSL - Steam Ship Line
ECSA - East Coast South America T - Thousands
EURO - Europe TEU - Twenty foot equivalent unit (20‘ container)
FMC - US Federal Marine Commission TP - Trans Pacific
G6 - Carrier Alliance: APL, Hapag Lloyd, Hyundai, MOL, NYK and OOCL TSA - Trans Pacific Stabilization Agreement
GRI - General Rate Increase ULCS - Ultra Large Container Ship
HJS - Hanjin Shipping USGC - US Gulf Coast
HMM - Hyundai US FMC - US Federal Maritime Commission
HSUD - Hamburg Süd USEC - US East Coast
HWS - Heavy Weight Surcharge USWC - US West Coast
IA - Intra Asia VGM - Verified Gross Mass
IPBC - India Pakistan Bangladesh Colombo VLCS - Very Large Container Ship
IPI - Inland Point Intermodal VSA - Vessel Sharing Agreement
ISC - Indian Sub Continent WB - Westbound
MENAT - Middle East and North Africa WCSA - West Coast South America
mn - Millions YML - Yang Ming Line
MoM - Month-on-Month YoY - Year-on-Year
NOO - Non-operating (vessel) owners YTD - Year-to-Date
Ocean 3 - Carrier Alliance: CMA, UASC, China Shipping
DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | Feb 2018
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