Development Trends and Vulnerability To Storms
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Transcript of Development Trends and Vulnerability To Storms
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Photo Source: Environment Canada. 2009.
Honours Thesis Proposal Jacqueline Wightman
Environmental Planning Dalhousie UniversityFebruary 7th, 2013
Development Trends and Vulnerability To StormsCase Study Analysis of a Community in Nova Scotia
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Outline Background
Storms in Nova Scotia Coastal Development Trends What is vulnerability?
Research Problem Goals and Objectives Method Expected Findings Implications of Study
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Storms in Nova Scotia
10 Years of Hurricane Tracks: 1992 - 2001
Nova Scotia
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Storms in Nova Scotia
Land-falling Hurricanes 100 Years of Tracks in Nova Scotia
Photo Source: Environment Canada, 2012.
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Storms in Nova Scotia Land-falling hurricanes are not the only problem Extratropical storm remnants can also do damage
Photo Source: CBC News Online, 2012.
Remnants of Hurricane Noel (2007)• Damaged property and
roads,• Caused power outages
to homes and businesses in Nova Scotia
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Storms in Nova Scotia Winter storms can do a lot of damage
Photo Source: Fundy Group Publications LTD, Groundhog ‘76
Groundhog Day Storm, 1976• Blow to Yarmouth
fishing industry• Thousands of dollars
of damage to this wharf alone
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Storms in Nova Scotia
Climate change will increase storm risk: Storm surges will reach further inland due to sea level
rise Possibility of more frequent, intense storms
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Coastal Development Trends
Number of people on the coast is increasing More people exposed
Use of coast in the 19th and early 20th century: infrastructure (wharves, docks, railways, etc.)
Today: residential, recreational, commercial and
institutional uses
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What is vulnerability?
RISK is the product of Hazard – How big is the storm? Exposure – Will the storm hit us? Vulnerability – Can we withstand it?
All of these factors determine the RISK of damages
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What is vulnerability?
The amount of destruction is determined by: Magnitude of the storm Our location in relation to the storm Infrastructure and development patterns
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Research Problem
How has vulnerability to storms in a community in Nova Scotia evolved over time due to changes in development patterns?
What do these trends imply for future storm risk?
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Goals
Goal 1: Conduct a historical case study analysis of the effect of land use change on vulnerability
Goal 2: Determine how the community can minimize its vulnerability to future storms
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Map development changes over time including type, density, use and form.
Interpret land use change from a vulnerability perspective: Determine and identify vulnerable land uses at each
point in time. Identify the damages associated with every storm.
Compare past to present vulnerability, and make recommendations based on past trends.
Objectives
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Method
Chose a community that is vulnerable to storms and has undergone significant land use change.
Yarmouth, Nova Scotia Strongly affected by storms Data available
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Method: Land Use Change Over Time Spatial analysis of land use
change using GIS:
Geo-reference and map historic fire insurance
maps Aerial photos Current Zoning maps
Section of 1891 Yarmouth Fire Insurance Map Courtesy of Yarmouth Planning Department
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Method: Land Use Change Over Time Categorize buildings based
on attributes that affect vulnerability: Use Building materials Permanency Investment
Interpret change in vulnerability over time due to changes in land use
Section of 1938 Yarmouth Fire Insurance Map Courtesy of Yarmouth Planning Department
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Method: Storm Damage Analysis Create a list of major storms
that hit community: Environment Canada News articles
Compare storm damages to land use at the time, make correlations if possible
Storm Date 1900 1976 2001Damages- $$- injuries
- $$- injuries
- $$- injuries
Land Use
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Method: Vulnerability to Future Storms
Analyze current vulnerability to storms Based on historic trends and current land use maps
Identify areas of concern
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Expected Findings
Historic trends Vulnerability increases as the coast becomes more
developed More storm damages in areas where development has
changed from infrastructure/industrial to residential/commercial/recreational
Future storm risk Development occurring in a way that increases
vulnerability
Change in hazard? Fires more of an issue in the 19th century Flooding a bigger issue today than in the past
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Implications of study
Understanding the past is key to planning for the future.
Past: The influence of a community’s development on its vulnerability
to storms
Present: Trends show an increase in vulnerability, how can we change this?
Future: Climate change
increase in storm extent = more damage potential