“Development, Population and Pollution”

Anth 597.01

World population: 6,574,516,113U.S. Population: 301,109,975According to the International Programs Center, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Feb 06, 2007

2004 World population

• More developed regions: 1.2 billion

• Less developed regions: 5.1 billionSource: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Data

Base

• 47% Urban, 53% Rural (UN 2001)

Neo-Malthusian Revival• Subsistence can only keep up w/ population growth at

cost of unsustainable level of env. destruction• Explanation for:– Famine– Poverty– Instability and revolution– Environmental degradation– Impeding development

• Does pop. growth have neg. effect on economic development?

Why wouldn’t it?• Resources neither more scarce nor more expensive… yet• Efficient use of resources• More people to consume AND to produce– 0-20 /&/ 65-80+ = consumer– 20- 65 = net producer

Econonomic Development vs Pop. Growth

• Increase in scale of the firm causes a decrease in long run average cost of each unit.– COSTCO Effect

• More people = more demand for goods & services– drives capitalist economy

• Population growth can stimulate agricultural and technological innovation

• Danger might actually be in population decline

Economies of scale

The Population Implosion• Population size is decreasing in many countries

– Ex: Russia & ex-Soviet Block– Why?

• Increased mortality– Alcoholism, drug abuse, disease, etc

• Lower fertility– Cost/benefit of children in developed/developing countries

Relative Consumption Rates• The US - 4.6% of World’s pop

– Uses 25% of the worlds energy

• The US produces 25% of global greenhouse gases (UN 2001)

• 30-50 Xs more consumption over lifetime– Child growing up in developed vs.

undeveloped/developingcountry (UN 2001)

Economic development & Env degradation

• Promotion of raw resource exports– Typically comes at cost to environment

• Budget cuts in environmental protection– Brazil

• env programs cut 2/3rds to meet IMF fiscal targets– Indonesia

• budget cuts have forced officials in Jakarta, one of the world's most polluted cities, to suspend environmental programs.

– Nicaragua • Ministry of Environment & Natural Resources budget cut 36% to adhere to

IMF budget targets.

Conflict over scarce resources• Oil, natural gas, water• What does the future hold?

Deforestation

• lost 3 billion hectares – (World Resources Institute)

• ~ 16 million each year

Why?• Logging – trees • Farming –Agriculture & Horticulture• Crops and Livestock• All = capital

The Story of Beef• Production = deforestation•306 million acres of U.S. public land • Oregon, 3,000% more resources given to livestock than wildlife• destruction of up to 80% of rainforest in some Latin American

countries

• Inefficient & Messy•80% U.S. grain = livestock feed• 2/3rds U.S. exports = International livestock feed• 1/4 of U.S. H2O grows grain for cattle• uses 15 times more H20 than equivalent vegetable protein• methane gas

(1997) The World Resources Institute. The Last Frontier Forest, Ecosystems and Economies on the Edge

The Dirty Dilemma• hazardous waste– Potentially damaging to the environment– harmful to humans and other living organisms– Industrial byproducts– Nuclear waste

• Do we develop or save the environment?

Importing hazardous waste • Benefits?– Developed vs. Developing

• Costs?– Developed vs. Developing

“Let them eat pollution”(The Economist, 1992)

• World Bank should encourage migration of dirty industries to LDCs1. income for LDCs2. Cost of pollution assoc. illness = cheaper in LDCs3. Grossly under-polluted4. Lower life expectancies = less late onset diseases

• “Commodification of human life”– People’s lives worthless in peripheral countries

• Source:– Pesticides from land runoff– Chemicals from industry– Human waste

• Result:– Dead/Deformed animals– Bioaccumulation - consumed in seafood– Dangerous swimming

• 13,000 beaches closed in 2001

Cameron Wake, University of New Hampshire

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/environment/july-dec04/pollution_09-07.html

Water pollution

Water pollution

Estimated DALYs per 1000 people resulting from mortality and morbidity associated with diarrhoeal diseases. DALY (Disability Adjusted Life Years) is a standard measure of health impact. (Source: World Bank Estimates)

No Data Low High

Air Pollution• Source:– fossil fuels, Methane, Chemicals, Smoke – Particulate Matter, Noxious gases

• Result:– Smog– Ozone depletion– Acid rain– Health impacts• Asthma, Cancer, Stroke• contributes to some 60,000 deaths/year

• Not local problem, but a global pollution dance

Cameron Wake, University of New Hampshire

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/environment/july-dec04/pollution_09-07.html

Air Pollution

No Data Low High

concentration (ug/m3) of particulates (PM10) in urban areas (World Bank)

Global Climate Change• EPA estimates that in the last 50 years…– Carbon dioxide 30 percent– Methane 50 percent – Nitrous oxide 15 percent

• Fossil fuels make up 80% of global energy use

• Science– Threat to environment & inhabitants

• Industry advocates– green policies will harm consumers– Natural climatic variability– Not enough evidence

Addressing the problem• Kyoto Protocol, 2005

– 140 countries ratified– international agreement to reduce emission of greenhouse

gases to pre-1990 levels by 2012– Bush Admin has not ratified the protocol

• mandatory restrictions on emissions could hurt large industry• damage the U.S. economy by making it less competitive

– Local & State level participation• 418 cities in all 50 states support K - protocol

• Carbon Trading/Credits– Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI)– Places cap on total emissions– Credits to individual emitters– Buy or sell credits in market to meet targets

Global Climate Change• Carbon trading/greenhouse gas emissions trading

– Enacted by legislation of a state/country/region– Places a cap on total emissions– Allocates credits to individual emitters– Then allows them to buy or sell credits in a market to

meet their targets

• Cost-effective & efficient way to lower emissions• Provides flexibility for companies• Works best in concentrated sectors

– Power plants/Industry vs. Ag/Transportation• What can you do?