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Presentation

May , 2015

DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI(P) 148/04/2014

Russia-2015: Assessing the new paradigm

Yaroslav Lissovolik | (+7) 495 933-9247 | [email protected]

Deutsche Bank Markets Research

Markets Research Deutsche Bank Yaroslav Lissovolik | (+7) 495 933-9247 | [email protected]

May , 2015 1

Labor productivity–real wages, selected countries

Source: OECD, Deutsche Bank

Labor vs. wages – accumulating imbalances

Source: Rosstat, Deutsche Bank

Labor prod-ty in OECD and selected countries

Source: OECD, Deutsche Bank

GDP, labor productivity vs. real wages growth


100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Labour productivity, 2002=100 Real wages, 2002=100

Labor market: productivity vs. wage growth

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

% y

oy

Labour productivity, % yoy Real wages, % yoy GDP growth

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201320

07=0

Russia Germany United States Japan Korea

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Nor

way US

Bel

gium

Net

herla

nds

Den

mar

kIre

land

Fran

ceG

erm

any

Sw

itzer

land

Sw

eden G

7A

ustri

aE

uro

area

Aus

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Finl

and

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EC

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nia

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ew Z

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epub

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Gre

ece

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Rep

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orea

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o

US

D, c

urre

nt p

rices

, cur

rent

PP

Ps

GDP per hour worked


May , 2015

Import substitution potential: constrained by high capacity utilization and aged capital

2

Capacity utilization vs. employment level, %


Structure imports by country to Russia, 2013

Source: UNCTAD, Deutsche Bank

Share of imports across industries

Source: Ministry of Industrial Trade, Kommersant, Deutsche Bank

Structure of Russian imports, 2013, USD340bn

Source: UNCTAD, Deutsche Bank

Machinery and transport

equipment42%

Miscellaneous manufactured

articles14%

Manufactured goods13%

Chemicals and related products

12%

Agriculture and food products

13%

Crude materials, inedible, except

fuels3%

Mineral fuels, lubricants and

related materials2%

Other1%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Total all products

Agriculture and food products

Crude materials, ex. fuels

Mineral fuels and related materials

Chemicals and related products

Manufactured goods

Machinery and transport equipment

Miscellaneous manufactured articles

EU NO CA US AUS JP Other

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Mac

hine

en

gine

erin

g

Hea

vy

Mac

hine

ry

Ligh

t in

dust

ry

Ele

ctro

nics

Med

icin

e &

P

harm

a

Food

M

anuf

'ng

Domestic production Imports

90

92.5

95

97.5

100

50

55

60

65

70

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Capacity Utilization (%) Employment (%) (RHS)


May , 2015 3

Public infrastructure: decrepit and in need of repair

Infrastructure segment Main features

Railways Railcar park (years) average age 16 years vs. useful economic life of 38 years Locomotives (years) average age 27 years vs. useful economic life of 35 years Average speed of cargo trains 220km per day Bottlenecks (km) 7,600km or 8.9% of total

Highways Hard surface (%) 80% of total Up to international standards 5% to total Requiring capital repairs 65% of total Bottlenecks, km 13,000km or approximately 27% of total

Housing Rundown rate (%) 3.00% Housing stock 2000-2012 CAGR 1.5%, 2005-2012 CAGR 1.8% Floor space per capita, sq,m 23.4

Public utilities Fully depreciated 40.8% in 2012

Source: Rosstat, Ministry of Transport, Ministry of Economy, Vedomosti, Kommersant, Deutsche Bank


May , 2015

Top-down modernization: megaprojects

Sochi provided an important impetus to growth in Southern Russia

Another infrastructural “hot spot” is the Russian Far East (one of the most depressed regions in Russia currently). Overall, about RUB560bn are to be directed to the renovation of Trans Siberian and Baikal-Amur railways.

In the longer term, the most important event will likely be the 2018 FIFA World Cup…

… as well as development of new Moscow areas.

4

Russia’s megaprojects

Source: Ministry of Finance, Deutsche Bank

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

2 000

2008-2012 2008-2013 2008-2014 2013-2018 2013-2017 2014-2022 2012-2025

APEC 2012 Kazan Universiade 2013

Sochi 2014 World Cup 2018 Far East Development

Central District Hub Development

New Moscow

RU

Bbn

Actual expenditure Planned expenditure


May , 2015

Number of bureaucrats in Russia

5


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

per 1

,000

em

ploy

ed

mn

Number of bureaucrats per 1,000 employed (RHS)


May , 2015

Labor market bottlenecks

6

Skilled employees shortage

Note: survey carried out in 2013 Source: Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, Deutsche Bank

What career would you like your children to chose

Source: Levada (May-14), Deutsche Bank

0

5

10

15

20

25

Law

yer,

Eco

nom

ist,

Fina

ncie

r

Hig

h-te

ch, I

T

Doc

tor

Ent

repr

eneu

r

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Arm

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each

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Farm

er

Prie

st

Oth

er

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Skilled workers Mid-career professionals Executives

% o

f th

ose,

who

ans

wer

ed "y

es"

Is there a deficit (difficulty in hiring) of personell?


Employment structure, 2013


Salaries’ distribution across sectors, 2013

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

Fina

ncia

l ser

vice

s

Min

eral

ext

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ion

Pub

lic s

ervi

ce,

arm

y, in

terio

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ansp

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term

edia

tion

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ail a

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ade

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els

and

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aura

nts

Agr

icul

ture

RU

B/m

onth

Agriculture7%

Mineral extraction

2%

Manufacturing15%

Utilities3%

Construction8%Retail and

wholesale trade18%

Transport and telecoms

10%

Financial services

9%

Public employees, army, interior

security7%

Education9%

Healthcare8%

Other4%


May , 2015

Trust is not at high level in Russia….

7

Aggregate level of trust (govt+business+media)

Source: Edelman, Deutsche Bank

Trust to Business


Trust to mass media


Trust to Government


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

UA

EIn

dia

Indo

nesi

aC

hina

Sin

gapo

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rlan…

Bra

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Mex

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Ger

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ea UK

Arg

entin

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pain

Sw

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Turk

eyIre

land

Japa

n

% o

f res

pone

nts,

who

trus

t

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

UA

EIn

dia

Chi

naIn

done

sia

Sin

gapo

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rlan…

Sw

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UK

Ger

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S. A

frica

% o

f res

pone

nts,

who

trus

t

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

UA

EIn

done

sia

Indi

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razi

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exic

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hina

Mal

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S. A

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re US

Italy

UK

Sw

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Irela

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% o

f res

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who

trus

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Indo

nesi

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AE

Chi

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Net

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inga

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ada

Mal

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US

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Pol

and

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Arg

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wed

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Japa

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% o

f res

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who

trus

t


May , 2015

SME support Tax breaks for SMEs Access to public procurement for SMEs Lending to SMEs from the NWF Investment stimulation Use of NWF in financing infrastructure projects

(from 2014) Development of PPPs Tariff freezes Tax exemptions for security holders Credit affordability Business climate De-offshorization Regulation control – Federal Antimonopoly

Service reform Higher dividend payments from state-owned

enterprises

8

Government’s short-term reform agenda

Efficiency improvement in public sector Cost efficiency incentives for state-owned

corporations Public expenditure optimization Reduction in the bureaucratic headcount Privatization


May , 2015

Source: IFC, World Bank, Deutsche Bank

Doing Business in Russia: getting better, but slowly

The World Bank and the IFC carry out a joint project to evaluate the ease of doing business in Russia.

In 2013 (DB 2014) Russia made significant progress climbing from 111 position to 92 and attaining the best results across BRICS

From 2015 the Ranking has changed and Russia is now ranked #62 rising by 2 positions from revised 2014 ranking

President Putin set the task for the Russian government to climb in the rankings to 50th position by 2015 and 20th by 2018.

9

Ease of… 2011 2012 2013 2014 2014 2015 Chg Doing Business 124 120 111 92 64 62 up 2 Starting a business 106 111 100 88 58 34 up 24 Dealing with construction permits 179 178 180 178 172 156 up 16 Getting electricity 183 183 188 117 141 143 down 2 Registering property 51 45 46 17 17 12 up 5 Getting credit 96 98 105 109 55 61 down 6 Protecting investors 108 111 113 115 97 100 down 3 Paying taxes 107 105 63 56 48 49 down 1 Trading across borders 166 160 162 157 154 155 down 1 Enforcing contracts 19 13 10 10 14 14 n/c Resolving insolvency 60 60 53 55 62 65 down 3


May , 2015

Russia’s growth to be sourced from regions

10

Top 30 GRP per capita regions, 2012


Russia vs. Moscow FAI growth, 1999-2014


Contribution to GDP by largest regions, 2012


Russia vs. Moscow GRP growth, 1999-2013


Moscow22%

Tyumen region10%

Moscow region

5%

St. Petersburg5%

Sverdlovsk region

3%

Krasondar territory

3%Tatarstan

3%

Krasnoyarsk territory

3%

Others46%

0

300

600

900

1 200

1 500

Tyum

en re

gion

S

akha

lin re

gion

C

huko

tka

Mos

cow

Y

akut

ia

Kom

i Rep

ublic

M

agad

an

St.

Pet

ersb

urg

Kra

snoy

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terri

tory

K

amch

atka

A

rkha

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sk re

gion

Le

ning

rad

regi

on

Tata

rsta

n M

urm

ansk

regi

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Bel

goro

d re

gion

To

msk

regi

on

Rus

sia

Mos

cow

regi

on

Sve

rdlo

vsk

regi

on

Per

m te

rrito

ry

Kha

baro

vsk

terri

tory

O

renb

urg

regi

on

Irkut

sk re

gion

V

olog

da re

gion

S

amar

a re

gion

K

alug

a re

gion

A

mur

regi

on

Prim

orye

B

ashk

orto

stan

K

alin

ingr

ad re

gion

N

ovgo

rod

regi

on

Kra

sond

ar te

rrito

ry

RU

B'0

00

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

% y

oy

Russia averge GRP, %yoy Moscow GRP, % yoy

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

% y

oy

Russia, fixed investments , %yoy Moscow, fixed investments, % yoy


May , 2015

Investment climate across Russia’s regions

11

Pilot research of Russia’s regions investment climate, 2014

Source: Agency for Strategic Initiatives, Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, Deutsche Bank

Region Aggregate Regulatory environment Insitutions for business

Intrastructure and resources SME support

1 Kaluga region I 1 1 1 1 2 Ulyanovsk region I 2 1 4 1 3 Krasnoyarsk territory I 1 2 1 3 4 Tatarstan I 2 3 2 1 5 Kostroma region I 2 2 3 2 6 Tula region II 2 2 3 3 7 Krasnodar region II 1 4 2 4 8 Tomsk region II 3 4 3 2 9 Altai region II 3 1 4 5

10 Vladimir region III 4 3 3 4 11 Rostov region III 3 4 2 5 12 Chelyabinsk region III 4 4 3 2 13 Leningrad region III 5 1 2 5 15 Samara Region IV 4 4 5 1 16 Khabarovsk territory IV 5 3 3 3 17 Moscow IV 5 3 2 4 14 Yakutia IV 5 4 3 1 18 Sverdlovsk region V 4 5 2 4 19 Stavropol region V 4 5 4 2 20 Saint Petersburg V 5 5 2 3 21 Primorsk territory V 5 5 5 5


May , 2015

Russia’s 2010-2012 growth poles

12

Russia’s regional growth poles with highest GRP growth rates


KalugaBelgorodBryansk Moscow

NNovgorodregions

St.PetersburgLeningrad Vologda

KrasnodarRostov regions

SverdlovskPerm

Chelyabinskregions


May , 2015

02/06/2015 11:24:19 2010 DB Blue template

Appendix 1 Important Disclosures Additional Information Available upon Request

For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at http://gm.db.com/ger/disclosure/DisclosureDirectory.eqsr

13

http://gm.db.com/ger/disclosure/DisclosureDirectory.eqsr


May , 2015 14

Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s) about the subject issuer and the securities of the issuer. In addition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Yaroslav Lissovolik/ Artem Zaigrin


May , 2015

Buy: Based on a current 12-month view of total shareholder return (TSR = percentage change in share price from current price to projected target price plus projected dividend yield), we recommend that investors buy the stock.

Sell: Based on a current 12-month view of total shareholder return, we recommend that investors sell the stock.

Hold: We take a neutral view on the stock 12 months out and, based on this time horizon, do not recommend either a Buy or Sell.

Notes:

1. Newly issued research recommendations and target prices always supersede previously published research.

2. Ratings definitions prior to 27 January, 2007 were:

Buy: Expected total return (including dividends) of 10% or more over a 12-month period

Hold: Expected total return (including dividends) between -10% and 10% over a 12-month period

Sell: Expected total return (including dividends) of -10% or worse over a 12-month period

Equity Rating Key

Equity Rating Dispersion and Banking Relationships

15

46 % 48 %

5 %24 % 23 %40 %

05

101520253035404550

Buy Hold Sell

Global Universe

Companies Covered Cos. w / Banking Relationship


May , 2015 16

Regulatory Disclosures 1. Important Additional Conflict Disclosures Aside from within this report, important conflict disclosures can also be found at https://gm.db.com/equities under the “Disclosures Lookup” and “Legal” tabs. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing.

2. Short-Term Trade Ideas Deutsche Bank equity research analysts sometimes have shorter-term trade ideas (known as SOLAR ideas) that are consistent or inconsistent with Deutsche Bank’s existing longer term ratings. These trade ideas can be found at the SOLAR link at http://gm.db.com.

3. Country-Specific Disclosures Australia & New Zealand: This research, and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act and New Zealand Financial Advisors Act respectively. Brazil: The views expressed above accurately reflect personal views of the authors about the subject company(ies) and its(their) securities, including in relation to Deutsche Bank. The compensation of the equity research analyst(s) is indirectly affected by revenues deriving from the business and financial transactions of Deutsche Bank. In cases where at least one Brazil based analyst (identified by a phone number starting with +55 country code) has taken part in the preparation of this research report, the Brazil based analyst whose name appears first assumes primary responsibility for its content from a Brazilian regulatory perspective and for its compliance with CVM Instruction # 483. EU countries: Disclosures relating to our obligations under MiFiD can be found at http://www.globalmarkets.db.com/riskdisclosures. Japan: Disclosures under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Law: Company name - Deutsche Securities Inc. Registration number - Registered as a financial instruments dealer by the Head of the Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Kinsho) No. 117. Member of associations: JSDA, Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association, The Financial Futures Association of Japan, Japan Investment Advisers Association. Commissions and risks involved in stock transactions - for stock transactions, we charge stock commissions and consumption tax by multiplying the transaction amount by the commission rate agreed with each customer. Stock transactions can lead to losses as a result of share price fluctuations and other factors. Transactions in foreign stocks can lead to additional losses stemming from foreign exchange fluctuations. "Moody's", "Standard & Poor's", and "Fitch" mentioned in this report are not registered credit rating agencies in Japan unless Japan or "Nippon" is specifically designated in the name of the entity. Reports on Japanese listed companies not written by analysts of Deutsche Securities Inc. (DSI) are written by Deutsche Bank Group's analysts with the coverage companies specified by DSI. Malaysia: Deutsche Bank AG and/or its affiliate(s) may maintain positions in the securities referred to herein and may from time to time offer those securities for purchase or may have an interest to purchase such securities. Deutsche Bank may engage in transactions in a manner inconsistent with the views discussed herein. Qatar: Deutsche Bank AG in the Qatar Financial Centre (registered no. 00032) is regulated by the Qatar Financial Centre Regulatory Authority. Deutsche Bank AG - QFC Branch may only undertake the financial services activities that fall within the scope of its existing QFCRA license. Principal place of business in the QFC: Qatar Financial Centre, Tower, West Bay, Level 5, PO Box 14928, Doha, Qatar. This information has been distributed by Deutsche Bank AG. Related financial products or services are only available to Business Customers, as defined by the Qatar Financial Centre Regulatory Authority. Russia: This information, interpretation and opinions submitted herein are not in the context of, and do not constitute, any appraisal or evaluation activity requiring a license in the Russian Federation. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Deutsche Securities Saudi Arabia LLC Company, (registered no. 07073-37) is regulated by the Capital Market Authority. Deutsche Securities Saudi Arabia may only undertake the financial services activities that fall within the scope of its existing CMA license. Principal place of business in Saudi Arabia: King Fahad Road, Al Olaya District, P.O. Box 301809, Faisaliah Tower - 17th Floor, 11372 Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. United Arab Emirates: Deutsche Bank AG in the Dubai International Financial Centre (registered no. 00045) is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority. Deutsche Bank AG - DIFC Branch may only undertake the financial services activities that fall within the scope of its existing DFSA license. Principal place of business in the DIFC: Dubai International Financial Centre, The Gate Village, Building 5, PO Box 504902, Dubai, U.A.E. This information has been distributed by Deutsche Bank AG. Related financial products or services are only available to Professional Clients, as defined by the Dubai Financial Services Authority.


May , 2015 17

Global Disclaimer The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectively "Deutsche Bank"). The information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from public sources believed to be reliable. Deutsche Bank makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Deutsche Bank may engage in securities transactions, on a proprietary basis or otherwise, in a manner inconsistent with the view taken in this research report. In addition, others within Deutsche Bank, including strategists and sales staff, may take a view that is inconsistent with that taken in this research report. Opinions, estimates and projections in this report constitute the current judgement of the author as of the date of this report. They do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Deutsche Bank and are subject to change without notice. Deutsche Bank has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a recipient thereof in the event that any opinion, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate. Prices and availability of financial instruments are subject to change without notice. This report is provided for informational purposes only. It is not an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy. Target prices are inherently imprecise and a product of the analyst judgement. In August 2009, Deutsche Bank instituted a new policy whereby analysts may choose not to set or maintain a target price of certain issuers under coverage with a Hold rating. In particular, this will typically occur for "Hold" rated stocks having a market cap smaller than most other companies in its sector or region. We believe that such policy will allow us to make best use of our resources. 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