Determining Energy Futures using Artificial Intelligence · Energy Demand for energy will grow...

Determining Energy Futures

using Artificial Intelligence

Dr Michael Jackson, Shaping TomorrowENERGIZING FUTURES

Sustainable Development and Energy

in Transition, 13–14 June 2018,

Tampere, Finland

6/18/2018Shaping Tomorrow - Some rights reserved under a Creative Commons license

2 KEY QUESTION

How can the world transit towards a more

Sustainable Development and Energy System?

Sources265,000+ Verbatim

Forecasts10-15 key

Decisions

18,000worldwide

Members

50+ Focus

Groups

Influencers:OrganizationsKeywordsPundits/Experts

Summaries:StoryRespondVisualizeFilter

Pipeline:Act NowNot yetWatchForgetCompleted

Making better

decisions today

20,000+professional

How ShapingTomorrow.com answers the question

ST’s white box

AI Tools

Shaping Tomorrow - Some rights reserved under a Creative Commons license

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6/18/2018

Search resultsSTEP 2 Produce search results and extract evidence and forecasts for the following slides

Latest and Top 1000 Energy forecasts reviewed for this presentation

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Shaping Tomorrow - Some rights reserved under a Creative Commons license 6/18/2018

ST has 18,553 forecasts

on the future of energy

Takeaway: Long time horizon

Takeaway: Big regional differences

Takeaway: Many uncertainties

Takeaway: But critical issue for all

Some Energy Sources


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Do ask me for the full spreadsheet, source list and slides after the session

What’s Next in Energy?

The next decade will be critical to avoid the worst effects of

climate change and resulting migration, and potential conflicts

Speed of change is of the essence in increasing renewable energy

The key takeaway:

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Energy

Demand for energy will grow exponentially between now and 2050

with the global population predicted to grow to over 9 billion

people.

Global energy use - average rate of in 2001 was 13.5 trillion watts

and is expected to reach 27.6 trillion watts by 2050.

Energy mix will be much more diverse by 2040, with oil, gas, coal, and non-fossil fuels each contributing around 25 percent, globally.

Renewables will increase their share of total power generation from 7

percent today to around 25 percent by 2040.

Electricity, gas and heat networks will replace direct use of

petroleum products in buildings and transport.

Agricultural equipment will consume 30% less energy in 2050 compared to 2010.

Generation liquid and gaseous biofuels will gradually replace first-

generation biofuels starting in 2035.

Solid biomass fuels, that today represent 7 Mtoe, will attain 16.7 Mtoe

in 2050.

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Takeaway: corporates will lead the way but

governments including city leaders have a huge

role to play

Demand Fast growth in developing economies will drive up

global energy demand by a third.

Primary energy demand will probably grow fastest

in China, India and Southeast Asia (thanks to their

dynamic economic growth), along with Sub-

Saharan Africa (due to its demographic boom).

Renewable energy could represent between 46% and 69% of final energy demand in 2050. Peer-to-

peer, distributed energy. End of power companies

as we know them?

Information technologies could consume as much

as 20% of the world's electricity generation by 2025.

Buildings use of energy could double or even triple

by 2050, globally.

Lower use of heat in buildings after 2035 will lead to lower demand.

Clean energy futures will depend on an open

supply of newly key resources like rare-earth

minerals and heavy metals.

U.S. and Australia are becoming independent of

energy imports and will likely be major exporters.

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Takeaway: the pace of change and increasing demand are

not fast enough to avoid the worst effects of climate change

Consumption China is expected to account for 31 percent of global

renewable energy consumption by 2040.

India's energy consumption will grow by four point two percent a year for the next twenty-five years.

Biofuels could account for a third of fuels burned by cars and truck by 2040.

Smart energy device sales have tripled since 2015 and are expected to reach 1m by 2018.

Buildings are deeply inefficient. Globally, one-third of the world's energy is consumed by buildings. Just implementing today's best practices could cut global energy demand by one-third by 2050.

LEDs and associated cheap "everlasting" lighting products are expected to replace all other light-source technologies almost entirely within 10 years.

City governments will be playing an increasingly important role in achieving global energy and climate goals.

Battery consumption globally is expected by increase fivefold by 2025.

Solid-state batteries will be a game-changer.

Nuclear and biomass are expected to account for just 26% of the global energy mix by 2040.

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Takeaway: managing city energy use will be key going forward

Supply Abundance of oil resources will prompt a change

in behaviour with production from the Middle East,

OPEC, Russia and the US increasing

disproportionately.

Coal production in the United States will drop 3%

year over year to 751 million short tons (MMst):

Coal production is expected to remain flat in 2019.

Power generation is becoming more dispersed (examples include Germany, China and

California), regions may become more self-

sufficient in energy, a process labelled "energy

democratisation".

Blue energy, which is the free energy lost when

salty sea water and less salty river water meet and

mix in estuaries, could become a significant source

of global electricity in the future.

Fusion power plants could meet a substantial

fraction of the world's growing energy needs while

drastically curbing the greenhouse gas emissions

that are causing global climate change.

Cold climate heat pumps could shift significant portions of global heating energy use away from

less efficient electric and fuel heating systems in

mixed and cold climates.

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Takeaway: change momentum needs to increase dramatically

Gas Global consumption of natural gas will increase from 22% in 2015 to 25% by 2040.

Global LNG market is expected to grow with rising energy consumption, growing urban population, increasing

demand of natural gas vehicles, accelerating economic growth and increasing preference of LNG in

developing economies.

Heat is increasingly produced from biomass and direct use of biogas so use of network-supplied gas will decline up to 2035.

Hydrogen could account for around 20% of total energy consumed in 2050.

Solar and storage together are expected to compete directly with natural gas peakers - plants built to meet

peak electricity demand - by 2022.

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Wind and Solar Massive expansion of global solar generating

capacity to multi-terawatt scale is very likely an

essential component of a workable strategy to

mitigate climate change risk.

Global solar capacity will reach 740 GW by 2022.

Global wind energy capacity will double by 2027.

Wind turbines currently supply around 4 percent of

global energy and could account for up to 30

percent by 2040.

Wind power is expected to become the leading

source of electricity in Europe.

North Atlantic wind farms could provide sufficient energy to meet the entire annual global energy

demand of 18 terawatts.

Onshore wind and solar energy will become the

lowest-cost form of energy generation across the

world next year.

PV capacity in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Jordan,

Oman and the United Arab Emirates are expected

to reach a cumulative installed amount of around

22.4 GW by 2023.


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Takeaway: visionary projects required to really make a difference

Saudi Aramco, the world's biggest state oil company will invest

$7bn in solar and wind projects, this year.

One-third of solar and wind capacity will be in China by 2040.

Organisations Climate policies will continue to shape the global

energy system.

Global energy and carbon markets might be too

unpredictable for companies to want to commit to

investments.

By 2020, 100 percent of JPMorgan Chase's global energy needs will be sourced by renewable power

like solar and wind.

Global companies like General Electric are using AI

to boost different forms of energy production and

pull from tech-driven data reports to anticipate

performance and maintenance needs around the

world.

Google will reach 100 per cent renewable energy

for its global operations this year.

US states accounting for 35 percent of the U.S. economy will institute a carbon pricing policy by

the end of 2018.

China’s pace of economic transition will be vital to

achieving global climate goals.

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Takeaway: many more organisations need to change to renewables.

Far more education, inspiration and reward of global publics is key

Countries By 2030, 50% of total electric power generation will be

from non-fossil energy sources.

If fossil fuel investment continues unchecked the global economy could stand to lose $4 trillion.

Solar and wind will account for 2/3rd of the global renewable expansion by 2022.

Electricity is projected to make up 40% of all world energy consumption by 2040 with SE Asia accounting for two-thirds of future global energy demand largely due to an emerging urban middle class.

Thermal coal consumption is projected to increase in India, South East Asia and other parts of developing Asia.

China is projected to remain the world's largest coal user by a wide margin.

Indonesia will miss its target of generating 23 percent of

its energy from new and renewable sources by 2025 unless it makes significant policy and regulatory changes. (The world's most ignored big emitter, Indonesia, could be the one that dooms the global climate.)

'Buildings as Power Stations' offers the UK a unique global opportunity to create cutting edge buildings

that generate, store and release solar energy.

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Takeaway: many more governments need to switch to renewables

Vehicles

Cars, vans and light trucks could grow to

around 2.6 billion vehicles in 2050 from 1.2

billion in 2015.

EV sales will rise from a record 1.1m globally in

2017 to 11 million in 2025 and surge to 30

million in 2030 as they become cheaper to

make than internal combustion engine cars.

Electric vehicles will be as cheap as gasoline vehicles, within the next eight years.

Electric cars will outsell fossil-fuel powered

vehicles by 2037.

33% global light-duty vehicle fleet will be

electrified by 2040.

AEVs will drive a reduction in global oil demand.

Municipal bus fleets across the world are

expected to transition to 80% electric by

2040.

Demand for crude oil will flatten out in the

period 2020-2028 fall significantly as sales of

light electric vehicles surge.

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Takeaway: cities need energy policies that force renewable

Use and penalise oil use far earlier than currently planned in

most countries

Production

Doubling the world's renewable energy capacity by 2030 could save the global economy between $1.2 and $4.2 trillion each year.

Global companies like General Electric are using AI to boost different forms of energy production and pull from tech-driven data reports to anticipate performance and maintenance needs around the world.

Global ocean economy could double to $3 trillion by 2030, with opportunities like deep-sea mining and offshore renewable energy.

Investment in nuclear power and renewable energy will likely lead to much lower rates of abstraction and consumption by 2050.

Market for energy storage will hit US$3.9 billion in 2019 and surge to $8.2 billion in 2024. (Bloomberg New Energy Finance forecasts the global energy storage market will double six times by 2030.)

The end of today's traditional oil-based bunker industry will begin in the 2030's.


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Emissions Greenhouse gas emissions will rise by 34 per cent in

the next 20 years,.

CO2 emissions from energy and industry will need

to reach net zero around 2050-2070.

Shipping is expected to make up 17 per cent of global emissions By 2050.

China will require automakers to comply with a

cap-and-trade auto emission rule starting from

2019 onward.

Average global temperature is predicted to rise

above pre-industrial levels is projected to reach

almost 5.5 °C in the long term and almost 4 °C by

the end of this century if no action is taken.

Greenhouse gas emissions could be reduced by up to 1.5 billion CO2e annually by 2030, primarily

through transformative change in transport systems

in the world's 724 largest cities.

EU will reduce GHG emissions by 80% after 2030

and by 2050.

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Takeaway: The world will need to cut energy-related

carbon dioxide emissions by 60 percent by 2050

- even as the population grows by more than two

billion people.

Key Questions

What are the key ingredients for kick-starting global markets for renewable energy?

How can a total phase out of oil and gas be achieved far quicker than current projections?

How can organisations and city decision makers be encouraged, and helped, to switch their publics to renewables far quicker than current forecasts suggest?

KEY QUESTION

How can the world transit towards a more Sustainable Development and Energy System

Many uncertainties and scenarios!

Speed is of the essence

Societal issues being ignored

Adventurers | Adopters | Abstainers

Inspire | Engage | Enable

Government /City/ Corporate leadership is key

6/18/2018

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How to use these slides20

Use the spreadsheet and/or the slides to collaboratively determine your Options on ST


Then rank your Options collaboratively21

Then click the Option titles to develop robust strategies for agreed Options

From a standing start a team can develop their agreed options in less than 4 hours!


Thanks for listening

Questions?

[email protected]

for copies of the presentation, associated spreadsheet and sources or to request a presentation on your interest topic

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