Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson...
-
Upload
ralph-boyd -
Category
Documents
-
view
216 -
download
1
Transcript of Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson...
![Page 1: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 1
Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps
Leon StennethAdviser: Professor Ouri WolfsonCo-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu
![Page 2: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 2
Road map
• Outdoor transportation mode detection• Indoor and outdoor transportation mode
detection• Parking status detection• Parking availability estimation
![Page 3: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 3
Sensors
Image source:www.i-micronews.com
![Page 4: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 4
Maps
• Bus stop locations, real time bus locations, road network, rail line trajectory, location of parking pay boxes, etc.
![Page 5: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 5
Transportation mode detection using mobile phones and GIS
information• Patent filed• Paper published at ACM SIGSPATIAL GIS
2011• 20 external citations
![Page 6: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 6
Problem
• Detecting a mobile user’s current mode of transportation based on GPS and GIS.
• Possible transportation modes considered are:
![Page 7: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 7
Motivations
• Value added services (e.g. in Google Maps)
• More customized advertisements can be sent
• Providing more accurate travel demand surveys instead of people manually recording trips and transfers
• Determining a traveler’s carbon footprint.
![Page 8: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 8
Contributions
• Improve accuracy of detection by 17% for GPS only models
• Improve accuracy of detection for 9% compared to GPS/GIS models
• Introduce new classification features that can distinguish between motorized and non-motorized modes.
![Page 9: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 9
Technique
• A supervised machine learning model
• New classification features derived by combining GPS with GIS
• Trained multiple models with these extracted features and labeled data.
![Page 10: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 10
Data model
• GPS sensor report: pi = <lat, lon, t, v, h, acc>
• GPS trace: T = p0 → p1 → · · · → pk
![Page 11: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 11
Approach
• In addition to traditional features on speed, acceleration, and heading change. We build classification features using GPS and GIS data
Mobile Phone’s GPS sensor report
Bus stop spatial data
Rail line spatial data
Real time bus locations
Training example
![Page 12: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 12
Features
• Traditional – Speed, acceleration, and heading change
• Combining GPS and GIS– Rail line closeness– Average bus closeness– Candidate bus closeness– Bus stop closeness rate
![Page 13: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 13
Rail line closeness
• ARLC - average rail line closeness• Let {p1, p2, p3, p4…pn} be a finite the set of GPS
reports submitted within a time window. ARLC = ∑i=1 to n di
rail / n
![Page 14: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 14
Average bus closeness (ABC)
• Let {p1, p2, p3, p4…pn} be a finite the set of GPS reports submitted within a time window.
ABC = (∑i=1 to n dibus) / n
![Page 15: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 15
Candidate Bus closeness (CBC)
• dj.tbus 1≤j≤m - Euclidian distance to each bus busj
• Dj - total Euclidian distance to bus j over all reports submitted in the time window
Dj = ∑t=1 to n dj.tbus 1≤j≤m
• Given Dj for all the m buses, we compute CBC as follows.
CBC = min (Dj) 1≤j≤m
![Page 16: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 16
Bus stop closeness rate (BSCR)• | PS | is the number of GPS reports who's
Euclidian distance to the closest bus stop is less than the threshold
BSCR = | PS | / window size
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 5000
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
GPS sensor report number
Eucl
ilidi
an d
ista
nce
from
clo
sest
bus
stop
(m
)
![Page 17: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 17
Machine learning models
• We compared five different models then choose the most effective– Random Forest (RF)– Decision trees (DT)– Neural networks (MLP)– Naïve Bayes (NB)– Bayesian Network (BN)
• WEKA machine learning toolkit
![Page 18: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 18
Evaluation matrices
• Precision(M)=(number of correctly classified instances of mode M) / (number of instances classified as mode M)
• Recall (M) = (number of correctly classified instances of mode M) / (number of instances of mode M)
![Page 19: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 19
Data set
• 6 individuals • 3 weeks
![Page 20: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 20
Results
• Random Forest was the most effective model
train bus
stationary
walk car
bike
average0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Traditional features onlyTraditional and GIS features
mode
prec
isio
n
train bus
stationary
walk car
bike
average0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Traditional fea-tures onlyTraditional and GIS features
mode
reca
ll
![Page 21: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 21
Feature Ranking
• Below we rank the features to determine the most effective.
![Page 22: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 22
Results
• Using the top ranked features only• Precision and recall is shown below
train bus
stationary
walk car
bike
average
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Top ranked features only
mode
prec
isio
n
train bus
stationary
walk car
bike
average
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Top ranked features only
mode
reca
ll
![Page 23: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 23
Deployed System
• We can provide further information (i.e. route, bus id) on the particular bus one is riding.
![Page 24: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 24
Related work with GPS
• Liao et. al (2004) – consider the user’s history such as where one parked or bus stop boarded.
• Zheng et. al (2008) – Robust set of GPS only features and a change point segmentation method.
• Reddy et. al (2010) – Combined accelerometer and GPS to achieve high accuracy.
![Page 25: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 25
Conclusion
• Using GIS data improves transportation mode detection accuracy.
• This improvement is more noticeable for motorized transportation modes.
• Only a subset of our initial set of features are needed.
• Random forest is the most effective model• We can provide further information about the
bus that a user is riding
![Page 26: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 26
Limitations and solutions
• Using GPS consumes battery power aggressively [explore low power sensors such as BT or accelerometer]
• Misclassification of car as rail [map matching using both road and rail artifacts]
• The effects of window size on classification feature effectiveness [more experiments]
![Page 27: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 27
Adding Accelerometer sensor to the model
• Acceleration in all three axes• Consumes less energy than GPS• Common on today’s mobile phone (e.g.
iPhone)
![Page 28: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago
Adding accelerometer to the model
Mobile Phone’s GPS sensor report
Bus stop spatial data
Rail line spatial data
Real time bus locations
Training example
Noise fileter
Mobile Phone’s accelerometer sensor report
![Page 29: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 29
Contribution of accelerometer
• 4 % increase in outdoor detection accuracy
• Effective for indoor transportation mode detection (stairs, elevator, escalator)
• Finer granularity on mode detection (e.g. calorie trackers)
![Page 30: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 30
Accelerometer readingsSimple effective features
• DC component • Rxy ,Rxz ,Ryz(i.e. correlation
coefficient)• σx , σy , σz
• yx ratio• High and low peaks in time
window
![Page 31: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 31
Accelerometer and body position
![Page 32: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 32
Results
• Random Forest is most effective • Increase in 5.5% for outdoor transportation
mode• Detects each indoor (i.e. stairs, elevator,
escalator) mode by over 80% accuracy• GPS and GIS model by itself is not effective for
indoor transportation mode detection
![Page 33: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 33
Limitations of accelerometer study
• Small data set• Constrained mobile phone position
![Page 34: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 34
Real time street parking availability estimation
• Motivation– Vehicles searching for parking in LA business
district• CO2 emission (730 tons in 1yr)• Waste gasoline (burnt 47K gals 1yr)• Waste time (38 trips around the world)
![Page 35: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 35
Real-time street parking availability estimation
• The traffic product – sparse probes, map matching, map, travel speed, tta, color maps indicating current travel speed.
![Page 36: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Parking status detection (PSD)
• Determines spatial-temporal property of parking event (maybe parking probes)
Image sources: http://videos.nj.com/, http://pocketnow.com/smartphone-news/http://sf.streetsblog.org
36
![Page 37: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 37
Parking status detectors (PSD)
Contribution to PSD: Three less expensive techniques to detect spatial and temporal property parking events using mobile phones [patent pending]
![Page 38: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
38
Our schemes for PSD
driving stop off-car park
passenger
unpark
stationary
car
stationary
walk
driving accompanied
driving unaccompanied
walk,stationary,bus,train
carcar
car
stationary
walk,stationary,bus,train
car
![Page 39: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 39
Our schemes for PSD
![Page 40: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 40
Street parking estimation model
location errorsfalse +false -false –
false +
• Estimate the number of available parking spaces on a street block.
• PSD – Parking status detector• HAP – Historical availability profile• PAE – Parking availability estimator
![Page 41: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
41
HAP construction scheme
• estimates the historic mean (i.e. ) and variance (i.e. ) of parking
• relevant terms– prohibited period, permitted period (PPi), fp, fn, b, N
![Page 42: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Historical availability profile (HAP) Algorithm
• Start with a time at which the street block is fully available, e.g., end of a prohibited time interval (start permitted period)
• When a parking report is received, availability is reduced by:
• Deparking causes increase of availability by same factor
)1(
1
fnb
fp
b: penetration ratio(uniform distribution)
fn: false negative probability
fp: false positive probability
Justification:1. Each report (statistically) corresponds to 1/b actual parking2. 1/(1fn) reports should have been received if there were no false negatives3. The report is correct with 1fp probability
![Page 43: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
HAP algorithmPermitted period 1
m
tatq
m
ii
1
)(ˆ
)(ˆm
tqtatQ
m
ii
1
2))(ˆ)(ˆ()(ˆ
43
Permitted period 2
Permitted period 3
Permitted period m
![Page 44: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
HAP algorithm termination condition
• HAP terminates when the difference between q(t) and is less than x parking spaces with k% confidence.
• Automatically determines m.
44
![Page 45: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 45
Computing confidence
• Assumptions– PSD vehicles are uniformly distributed among all vehicles
– Parking activities are detected independently of each other.
– are identically and independently distributed
• See upcoming lemmas:
)(),...,(),( 21 tatata m
![Page 46: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 46
Computing confidence
• Lemma 1:• Proof
– pi(t)|Pi(t)Binomial(Pi(t), b(1fn)) 1.
– di(t)|Di(t)Binomial(Di(t), b(1fn)) 2.
–
– From 1. – Thus,
)())(|)(ˆ( tatataE iii
)1(
1))(|)((
)1(
1))(|)(())(|)(ˆ(
fnbtDtdE
fnbtPtpENtataE
ii
iiii
)1()())(|)(( fnbtPtPtpE iii
)()()())(|)(ˆ( tatDtPNtataE iiiii
![Page 47: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 47
Computing confidence
• Also showed that for i=1,2,…, m.
)())(ˆ( tqtaE i .
)(
))((
)})({(
))(|)(ˆ(})({())(ˆ(
0
0
tq
taE
kktaprob
ktataEktaprobtaE
i
i
N
k
iii
N
ki
![Page 48: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
More specifically:
• Example:– If we want error < 2 with 90% confidence,
• standard deviation of the estimation is 10 (i.e., the average fluctuation of estimated availability at the 8:00am is 10).
– then we need 68 permitted periods. • i.e. about two months of data.
1))(ˆ
(2}|)()(ˆ{|Prob tQ
mtqtq
Estimation average Estimation varianceTrue average
Number of samples , or permitted periods
Cumulative distribution function of normal distr.
![Page 49: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 49
Evaluation of HAP
• Real parking signals from SF Park• Simulated errors (i.e. fp and fn)
![Page 50: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
HAP Results
• RMSE between q , b = 1%
Polk St. block12 spaces available
50
![Page 51: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
HAP Results
• RMSE between q , b = 1%
Chestnut St. block4 spaces available
51
![Page 52: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
Parking availability estimation (PAE) algorithms
• Proposed four algorithms – Solely real time observations
• scaled PhonePark (SPP) – capped
– Solely historical parking data (HAP)• historical statistics (i.e. HAP)
52
![Page 53: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
Parking Availability Estimation (PAE)
• Combining history (i.e. HAP) with real time– Weighted average with pre-fitted weights
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
RM
SE o
f es
tim
ated
mea
n
wHS
b=1%, fn=fp=0,Chestnut
b=1%, fn=fp=0.1,Chestnut
b=50%, fn=fp=0, Polk
b=50%, fn=fp=0.1, Polk
b=50%, fn=fp=0.25,Polk
53
![Page 54: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
Parking Availability Estimation (PAE)
• combining history (i.e. HAP) with real time– Kalman Filter estimation (KF)
.
54
![Page 55: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
PAE results
• RMSE between x for street block• b =1 % , see for b = 50% in paper
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
fn=fp=0.05 fn=fp=0.15 fn=fp=0.25
RMSE
of es
timate
d ava
ilabil
ity
WA
KF
SPP
HS
0.44
0.45
0.46
0.47
0.48
0.49
0.5
0.51
0.52
0.53
0.54
fn=fp=0.05 fn=fp=0.15 fn=fp=0.25
RMSE
of es
timate
d ava
ilabil
ity WA
KF
SPP
HS
55
![Page 56: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
PAE results
• Boolean availability i.e. at least one slot available • b =1 %
0.5
0.55
0.6
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
fn=fp=0.05 fn=fp=0.15 fn=fp=0.25
boole
an av
ailab
ility a
ccurac
y
WA
KF
SPP
HS
0.5
0.55
0.6
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8
fn=fp=0.05 fn=fp=0.15 fn=fp=0.25
boole
an av
ailab
ility a
ccurac
y
WA
KF
SPP
HS
56
![Page 57: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 57
Conclusion
• We can provide reasonable parking availability estimation that does not deviate from the true availability by too much.
• Works under low penetration ratio (e.g. b=1%)
• Robust to false+ and false- errors
![Page 58: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 58
Limitations and solutions
• PSD penetration ratio can be low. [Can we use signals from neighboring blocks?]
• PAE algorithms did not consider the previous known parking availability at time t-1 for a street block [try to combine history & previous & current parking observations]
![Page 59: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 59
Current work• Increasing parking signals by using signals
from neighboring blocksSpear St (200-298) , The Embarcadero (61-69)
avera
ge p
ark
ing
availab
ilit
y
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
time (1 hour epoch and starts at 9am each day of the weekstarting Sun. UTC)
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
block1block2
scatter plot (Spear St (200-298) , The Embarcadero (61-69))
blo
ck 2
availab
ilit
y
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Y A
xis
Tit
le
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
block 1 availability
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
R = 0.92distance between blocks = 0.13km
![Page 60: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 60
Current workspatial correlation
R
−0.4
−0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
−0.4
−0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
distance (km)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
![Page 61: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 61
Future work
• Temporal correlations• Incorporating neighboring signals in Kalman
Filter• Incorporating parking availability at previous
epoch in the model• New parking status detectors(e.g. acoustic
sensors)
![Page 62: Detecting human activities using smartphones and maps Leon Stenneth Adviser: Professor Ouri Wolfson Co-Adviser: Professor Philip Yu University of Illinois,](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b52937/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
University of Illinois, Chicago 62
The end
• Thanks you for your time
• Questions……….