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![Page 1: Demonstrating Fire Inspection Effectiveness Jon Nisja Fire Safety Supervisor Minnesota State Fire Marshal 651-201-7204](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062302/5a4d1ae07f8b9ab059976df2/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Demonstrating Fire Inspection Effectiveness
Jon NisjaFire Safety Supervisor
Minnesota State Fire Marshal651-201-7204
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Objectives
• Compare national and state fire loss in inspected hotel and school occupancies
• Analyze trends in fire loss before and after the inspection program commenced
• Demonstrate the effectiveness of fire inspection programs in reducing the number and severity of fires
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Where Did the Ideas Come From?
• Dr. John Hall’s research: “Fire Code Inspections: What Methods Lead to Success” (1978)
• Fire Protection Research Foundation study "Measuring Code Compliance Effectiveness" (2008)
• National Fire Academy's course "Demonstrating Your Fire Prevention Program's Worth"
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Measurements
• Process – counts things:– Number of inspections– Number of violations
• Impact – short-term changes:– Reduction in hazards seen– Behavior change
• Outcome – long-term effects:– Fewer fires– Less damage
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Background Information
• In 2009, the Minnesota State Fire Marshal purchased an on-line fire reporting system for fire department use
• Provides us the ability to:– Have near “real-time” reporting– Analyze data (analytics)– Demonstrate outcomes (successes)
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Analytics
• Mathematical and statistical discovery of patterns in data
• Often used to quantify performance• Provided in visual format• Since analytics look at past history, they
can be used to predict future events
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Minnesota’s Experience
• This study focuses on the effectiveness of two inspection programs:– Hotel inspection program– Public school inspection program
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Assumptions
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Assumptions – U.S. vs. Minnesota
• Minnesota is an “average” state in terms of:– Land mass – Population
• Makes comparisons to national data easier (divide national data by 50)
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Assumptions – Land Mass
• U.S. land mass: 3,794,083 sq. miles:– 3,794,083 / 50 states = 75,882 sq. miles– Minnesota’s land mass: 86,939 sq. miles– Minnesota is about 14% larger than the
average state size– Minnesota’s land mass is about 2.3% of
the size of the U.S.
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Assumptions – Population
• U.S. population: 318,881,992 (2014):– 318,881,992 / 50 states = 6,377,640– Minnesota’s population: 5,457,173– Minnesota is about 15% less than the
average state population– Minnesota’s population is about 1.7% of
U.S. population
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Assumptions – Other
• To analyze data, you need a big enough data set
• Often able to do that on a state or national level
• Difficult to do on specific occupancies on a local level (not enough incidents)
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Minnesota Fire Loss
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Fire Deaths (per million population)
• National: 9.8• North Central Region (average = 9.6):
– South Dakota: 13.9– Michigan: 11.3– Nebraska: 9.6– Iowa: 9.6– Wisconsin: 8.5– North Dakota: 8.3– MINNESOTA: 6.2 (44th lowest out of 50)
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Fire Death Rate (per million population) – 2006-2010
National Midwest Minnesota0
2
4
6
8
10
9.8 9.6
6.2
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Fire Rate (fires per 1,000 population) – 2013
National Midwest Minnesota0
0.51
1.52
2.53
3.54
4.5
3.94.4
2.4
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Number of Fires in Minnesota
1978 1989 20140
2,0004,0006,0008,000
10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,000
16,142 19,614
12,706
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Number of Minnesota Structure Fires
1978 1989 20140
1000200030004000500060007000
7,3756,797 6,242
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Minnesota Structure Fire Rate(per 10,000 population)
1978 1989 2014 U.S.02468
101214161820
18.49
15.69
11.44
15.11
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Hotel Inspection Program
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History – Hotel Inspections
• January 28, 1977 – 17 people are killed in a fire at the Stratford Hotel in Breckenridge, Minnesota
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History – Hotel Inspections
• February 15, 1978 – Explosion and fire at Commodore Hotel in St. Paul, Minnesota injured dozens
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History – Hotel Inspections
• 1978 – Ten (10) positions added to Minnesota State Fire Marshal Division to inspect hotel and lodging facilities
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History – Hotel Inspections
• State law requires that each hotel be inspected once every three years
• 1,019 hotels in Minnesota• Local communities can inspect:
– Vast majority are inspected by State Fire Marshal (875 or 86%)
– Local inspections (144 or 14%)• Current staffing is seven (7) positions
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Hotel Fire Data – U.S. (NFPA)
• 49,505 hotels in U.S.• Estimated 3,700 hotel fires (2006-2010)• 12 deaths per year• 143 injuries per year• $127,000,000 in fire loss per year
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Hotel Fire Data – Minnesota
• 1,019 hotels in Minnesota• 175 hotel fires in five years (2009-2013)
– Average 35 hotel fires per year• 1 death in five years• 2 injuries in five years• $5,229,480 in fire loss in five years
– Average $1,045,896 fire loss per year
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Anticipated vs. Actual Hotel Fires
• 49,505 hotels in U.S.:– 49,505 hotels / 50 states = 990 per state– Minnesota: 1,019 hotels (slightly more
than average)• 3,700 hotel fires per year:
– 3,700 fires / 50 states = 74 per state– 35 hotel fires per year (half of
anticipated number of fires)
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Anticipated vs. Actual Hotel Fires
National Minnesota0
1020304050607080
74
35
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Hotel Fire Rate(Hotel Fires per 1,000 Hotels)
National Minnesota0
1020304050607080
75
34
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Average Fire Loss per Hotel Fire
National Minnesota$27,000 $28,000 $29,000 $30,000 $31,000 $32,000 $33,000 $34,000 $35,000
$34,324
$29,883
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Outcome Measures
• The number of hotel fires in Minnesota is less than half the national average
• Hotel fire rate in Minnesota (fires per 1,000 hotels) is less than half the national fire rate
• Average hotel fire loss is 15% less than the national average
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School Inspection Program
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History – School Inspections
• July, 1986 – Fire destroys Ellis Middle School – Austin, MN
• January, 1987 – Fire destroys Madison High School – Madison, MN
• State Legislature is concerned with the age of school buildings in Minnesota:– Passes public school inspection
program (effective August 1, 1990)
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History – School Inspections
• Involves public schools only:– Includes charter schools– Does not involve private or parochial
schools• Personnel are hired – Fall of 1990• School fire loss is researched (national
and state)• Focus is on fire and life safety issues
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History – School Inspections
• Unlike hotel inspection program, there was “baseline” data:– Number of educational occupancy fires– Fire loss (total, average per fire, etc.)
• Prior to the program’s start-up and for first few years, there was a major school fire at least once every two years:– From 1995-2013, there were none
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History – School Inspections
• State law requires that each public school be inspected once every three years
• 1,755 public schools in Minnesota• Local communities can inspect:
– Vast majority are inspected by State Fire Marshal (1505 or 86%)
– Local inspections (250 or 14%)• Current staffing is five (5) positions
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School Fire Data – U.S. (NFPA)
• 98,817 public schools in U.S.:– 98,817 / 50 states = 1,976 per state
• Estimated 4,060 school fires (2007-2011)
• 70 injuries per year• $70,000,000 in fire loss per year
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School Fire Data – Minnesota
• 1,755 public schools in Minnesota• 245 school fires in five years (2009-
2013)– Average 49 school fires per year
• 32 injuries in five years:– 31 of the 32 injuries were in one fire
• $684,616 in fire loss in five years– Average $136,923 fire loss per year
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Types of School in Minnesota
Pre-School; 38
Elementary; 769
Sec-ondary, 550
Combina-tion 210
Charter; 190
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School Fires per Year – National Average vs. Minnesota
National Minnesota0
102030405060708090
81
49
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Average Number of Educational Occupancy Fires Per Year
1985-1989 2009-20130
20
40
60
80
100
120
112
59
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Average School Fire Loss Per Year
1985-1989 2009-2013$0
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
$1,400,000
$1,2
17,1
70
$137
,323
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Average Loss Per School Fire
• Compares state and national school fire loss
• Before Minnesota inspection program and after
• For five (5) year periods of time
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Average Loss Per School Fire
1985-1989 2005-2009$0
$2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000
$10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 $18,000
$11,
504 $1
7,73
7
$10,
849
$2,5
96
NationalMinnesota
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School Fire Rate (per 1,000 Schools)
National Minnesota0
10
20
30
40
50
41
28
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Outcome Measures
• The number of school fires in Minnesota is 40% less than the national average
• School fire rate in Minnesota (fires per 1,000 schools) is 30% less than the national fire rate
• Average school fire loss is:– 75% less than before the program– 85% less than the national average
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Questions