Demography of Population Ageing in South East Asia · PDF fileDemography of Population Ageing...
Transcript of Demography of Population Ageing in South East Asia · PDF fileDemography of Population Ageing...
Demography of Population
Ageing in South East Asia
Past, Present and Future Trends
Plenary Paper 1, Ballroom, South East Asian Conference on Ageing (SEACA2010),
17 - 18 July 2010, Grand Millennium Hotel Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
A. P. Dr. Tengku Aizan Hamid
Institute of Gerontology, UPM
Demography of Population Ageing
in South East Asia:Past, Present and Future Trends
CONTENT
Demographic Determinants
o Fertility, Mortality & Life Expectancy
o Median Age, Age-Sex Structure
o Dependency Ratios & Other Indicators
Demographic Transition
Facts and Figures: What does it all mean?
The Malaysian Situation
Challenges and Opportunities
Conclusion
Population Ageing
• Population ageing is unprecedented,
• Population ageing is pervasive,
• Population ageing is profound,
• Population ageing is enduring.
- UNDESA (2002) World Population Ageing, 1950 - 2050.
Average life expectancy at birth has increased by 20 years since
1950.
Fast growth of the population in the first half of the 21st century
mean that the number of persons over 60 will increase from
about 600 million in 2000 to almost 2 billion in 2050.
Global Population Ageing
6.98.1
10
22.1
28.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Percentage 60 years and over
Source: Long-Range World
Population Projection: Based
on the 1998 Revision. The
Population Division,
Department of Economic and
Social Affairs, UN Secretariat.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Age
Per
cen
t (%
)
1850
1930
1940
1990
1999
Limit
Rectangularization or Extension?
• Source: Cai, J. G. (2004)
Human Survival Curve
115
85
50 4527 24 18
4528 23
Years
France Sweden Switzerland
Germany USA China
Malaysia Japan South Korea
Singapore
Sources: (1) United Nations The Aging of Population and its Economic and Social Implication Population Studies No.26, New York,
1956 (Before 1940); (2) United Nations World Population Prospects 1990 Population Studies No. 120, New York, 1991 (After 1940),
Tengku Aizan et al 2005
Years to double from 7% to 14%
Speed of Aging
Malaysia will be an aged nation in the year 2030 when 15% of the
total population is aged 60 years or over.
108
126
170
174
178
197
206
207
210
215
227
240
240
250
258
277
372
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Australia
Canada
China
India
Sri Langka
Thailand
Peru
Bangladesh
Egypt
South Korea
Mexico
Philipines
Indonesia
Costa Rica
Colombia
Malaysia
Singapore
Percent (%) Increase in the Elderly Population 65+, 2000 - 2030
Source: United States Census International Data, 2001
Rate of Ageing
Basic Demographic Processes
Fertility
Crude Fertility Rate
Total Fertility Rate
Age-specific Fertility Rate
Mortality
Crude Mortality Rate
Age-specific Mortality Rate
Migration
Internal, Local
External, International
Demographic transition occurs when there is a change in the
population dynamics from high birth and death rates to low birth
and death rates.
4 Stages of transitions:
• Stage 1, both birth and death rates are high,
population growth slow
• Stage 2, death decline but birth rates high,
population growth faster
• Stage 3, birth rates decline, death rates stabilizes, population
growth slow
• Stage 4, birth and death rates more or less balance,
slow growth, maybe no growth
Gradual change or rapid change?
Demographic Transition
A change in
the
population
dynamics
from high
fertility and
mortality
rates to low
fertility and
mortality
rates.
Demographic Transition
Total Fertility Rate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1950-
1955
1955-
1960
1960-
1965
1965-
1970
1970-
1975
1975-
1980
1980-
1985
1985-
1990
1990-
1995
1995-
2000
2000-
2005
2005-
2010
2010-
2015
2015-
2020
2020-
2025
2025-
2030
2030-
2035
2035-
2040
2040-
2045
2045-
2050
Year
To
tal F
ert
ilit
y R
ate
(C
hild
ren
per
Wo
man
)
Brunei
Cambodia
Indonesia
Laos
Malaysia
Myanmar
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Vietnam
Mortality
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1950-
1955
1955-
1960
1960-
1965
1965-
1970
1970-
1975
1975-
1980
1980-
1985
1985-
1990
1990-
1995
1995-
2000
2000-
2005
2005-
2010
2010-
2015
2015-
2020
2020-
2025
2025-
2030
2030-
2035
2035-
2040
2040-
2045
2045-
2050
Year
Cru
de D
eath
Rate
(D
eath
s p
er
1000 P
op
ula
tio
n)
Brunei
Cambodia
Indonesia
Laos
Malaysia
Myanmar
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Vietnam
Life Expectancy at Birth
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1950-
1955
1955-
1960
1960-
1965
1965-
1970
1970-
1975
1975-
1980
1980-
1985
1985-
1990
1990-
1995
1995-
2000
2000-
2005
2005-
2010
2010-
2015
2015-
2020
2020-
2025
2025-
2030
2030-
2035
2035-
2040
2040-
2045
2045-
2050
Year
Lif
e E
xp
ecta
ncy a
t B
irth
Brunei
Cambodia
Indonesia
Laos
Malaysia
Myanmar
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Vietnam
Indicators of Population Ageing
• Age and Sex Structure
• Median Age
• Ageing Index
• Dependency Ratios
2 0 1 0
7 %
5 4 %
2 1 %
8 %
9 %1 %
A f r ic a A s ia Eu r o p e L a tin A me r ic a & th e Ca r r ib e a n No r th e r n A me r ic a O c e a n ia
Older Population by Continent
2050
11%
61%
12%
9%
6% 1%
Africa Asia Europe Latin America & the Carribean Northern America Oceania
759.1 million 2.01 billion
Older Population in South East Asia
- Population ageing is a global phenomenon
- There are more older persons in developing countries although the
more developed regions are relatively “older”.
South East Asia, Age Structure, 1950 - 2050
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Perc
en
t (%
)
0-14
15-59
60+
175905 195423 220394 249910 283267 318964 355774 398179 439591 479834 517193 554080 589615 622911 653540 681584 706491 727693 744719 757484 765966
Size of Older Population1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Bru
nei
Cam
bodia
Indonesia
Laos
Mala
ysia
Myanm
ar
Philippin
es
Sin
gapore
Thaila
nd
Vie
tnam
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
Nu
mb
er
(in
Th
ou
san
ds)
Year
Country
Brunei
Cambodia
Indonesia
Laos
Malaysia
Myanmar
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Vietnam
Proportion of Older Population
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f O
lder
Po
pu
lati
on
(60+)
(Perc
en
t, %
)
Brunei
Cambodia
Indonesia
Laos
Malaysia
Myanmar
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Vietnam
Median Age
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Med
ian
Ag
e
Brunei
Cambodia
Indonesia
Laos
Malaysia
Myanmar
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Vietnam
Ageing Index
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Ag
ein
g In
dex (
65+/<
15*1
00)
Brunei
Cambodia
Indonesia
Laos
Malaysia
Myanmar
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Vietnam
Old Age Dependency Ratio
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Old
Ag
e D
ep
en
den
cy R
ati
o
Brunei
Cambodia
Indonesia
Laos
Malaysia
Myanmar
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Vietnam
Dependency Ratios, Laos PDR, 1950 - 2050
0
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 0
1 0 0
1 9 5 0 1 9 5 5 1 9 6 0 1 9 6 5 1 9 7 0 1 9 7 5 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 5 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 5 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 5 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 5 2 0 3 0 2 0 3 5 2 0 4 0 2 0 4 5 2 0 5 0
Y e a r
De
pe
nd
en
cy
Ra
tio
s
T o ta l
C h ild
O ld -a g e
Dependency Ratios, Malaysia, 1950 - 2050
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Dep
en
den
cy R
ati
os
Total
Child
Old-age
Dependency Ratios, Singapore, 1950 - 2050
0
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 0
1 0 0
1 9 5 0 1 9 5 5 1 9 6 0 1 9 6 5 1 9 7 0 1 9 7 5 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 5 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 5 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 5 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 5 2 0 3 0 2 0 3 5 2 0 4 0 2 0 4 5 2 0 5 0
Y e a r
De
pe
nd
en
cy
Ra
tio
s
T o ta l
C h ild
O ld -a g e
Dependency Ratios, Thailand, 1950 - 2050
0
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 0
1 0 0
1 9 5 0 1 9 5 5 1 9 6 0 1 9 6 5 1 9 7 0 1 9 7 5 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 5 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 5 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 5 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 5 2 0 3 0 2 0 3 5 2 0 4 0 2 0 4 5 2 0 5 0
Y e a r
De
pe
nd
en
cy
Ra
tio
s
T o ta l
C h ild
O ld -a g e
Fact and Figures
• Population ageing is a fact and it is here to stay.
• The South-east Asian region alone will register a 435%
rise in its older population from 39.5 million to 175.8
million.
• A majority of the elderly will come from developing
countries.
• The transition will have a demographic window where
the proportion of the adult, working age population
remains high.
• Once this has passed, the proportion of the older
population will overtake that of the younger population.
Opportunities & Challenges
• Take advantage of demographic window
• Meeting the needs and demands of an ageing population while maintaining strong economic growth
• More can be done in areas of:-
– Finance security
– Integration of health and social care
– Relationship of informal and formal care
• Supplement
• Complement
– Gender perspective
• Double jeopardy, old and women
– Supply of services
• Government driven, need to change
– Community based care
– Research sharing
Older Persons…
• Have different backgrounds (education, income, social
status etc.)
• Dissimilar life experiences
• Different environment
• Different ethnic / Culture
• Different needs, wants and expectations
Health, Healthcare and Long-term
Care
Employment, Pensions and Social
Security
Intergenerational Relationships
Poverty
Housing
Abuse, Neglect and Maltreatment
Laws and Ageing
Others
- Older Consumers
- Older Drivers
- Retirement community
- Estate planning
- Will, trusts & bequest
- Power of attorney
- Dispute resolutions
- Many more
MAJOR AREAS OF CONCERN
Addressing Gaps and Critical Issues
As indicated in the demographic data, the number and
proportion of the elderly is increasing.
The aged should not be neglected and marginalized in a
country’s rapid development and modernization.
In order to address the problems of senior citizens,
involvement from the family, civil society and the state is
rather crucial. Understanding the role of each unit is vital to
ensure each problem is addressed appropriately.
At the end of the day, a society for all ages can be a reality.
Addressing the Challenges
• The demographic changes faced by the countries (lower fertility, mortality and increase in life expectancy) brought about by rapid urbanization, modernization and industrialization have resulted in the rise of new generations.
• Malaysians in general has thought of population ageing as an indicator of progress or a sign of national success.
• The government retains a minimalist, welfare-oriented approach to the situation of the aged, where the responsibility of care was placed firmly on the family (Tengku-Aizan & Nurizan, 2008; Ong 2002).
• With smaller family units, dual income households and increasing geographical mobility, the older persons need meaningful choices or alternatives.
Older persons face dynamic problems
In order to solve these problems, we must come out
with strategic and dynamic plans, as different
solutions are needed in different times to cater the
need of the elderly both in the present and the future.
It is a challenge that cannot be addressed by the
public or private sector in isolation; it requires joint
approaches and strategies
It is through the partnership between the government,
society and family that the well being of the older
person could be achieved and sustained.
Conclusion
• Preparations should be well underway for the ageing
societies.
• There has to be political will to optimize limited
resources and plan ahead, by leveraging the
outcome through strategic alliances and
partnerships.
• There is an often repeated saying that the true
measure of a civilisation is how they treat their
weakest members.
THANK YOU . TERIMA KASIH