Demography and the Market

International Political Analysis

New Demography

Image: FIFTYMM69 EN FLICKR 2013

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• Global Economic Trends• Emerging Market Multinationals• New Demography: aging, migration, obesity

• Dictatorship, Democracy, failed States • Inequality and Poverty• Sustainability• Global Powers• Uncertainty and Complexity• Life expectancy

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New Demography

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New Demography: aging, migration, obesity

Aging: First Time in HistoryCountries with inverted age pyramids

• Age composition of the population is transitioning to an older structure in all regions of the world

• Older population (aged 60 years or over) is growing at an accelerated rate

• Growth of the older population will take place in the less developed regions: 8 out of 10 older persons will live in the less developed regions by 2050

• The older population itself is ageing.

• Older persons will outnumber children by mid-century

New Demography


Less developed regions

Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs • Population Division

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More developed countries


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Aging Population by broad age group1950-2050


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Benefits of Ageing

• People are living longer• Older persons make important financial contributions to their families In the majority of more developed and developing countries, older persons are

net providers of financial transfers to their children and grandchildren. In some developed countries such as Austria and the United States, older persons do not become net receivers of private transfers even into the advanced older ages. In countries such as Brazil, Costa Rica and Japan, older persons begin to be net receivers of private transfers only after they are well into their seventies or older. Some Asian countries such as Thailand and the Republic of Korea are exceptions, as adults in their sixties begin to receive net transfers from their children.

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Benefits of Ageing

• Older persons contribute significantly to the global economy. At the world level, the proportion of women aged 65 years or over in the labour force, grew from 10 per cent in 1990 to 13 per cent and is expected to reach 14 per cent in 2020

• Older persons living independently. Forty per cent of the world’s older population live independently, that is, either alone or with the spouse only. Living independently is the dominant living arrangement of older persons in the more developed regions, where almost three quarters of older persons live independently. Almost half of older women living independently live alone. By contrast, only a minority of older men live alone.

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Aging: Elder peopleProportion living independently (alone or with spouse only) among persons aged 60 years or

over by sex: world and development regions


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AgingSocial Protection

• Fewer working-age adults are supporting an increasing number of older persons. Working-age

adults provide the bulk of the contributions to finance social security programs and familial transfers for the older population. The “old-age support ratio”, the number of persons aged 15 to 64 years per person aged 65 years or over, has been falling in tandem with population ageing.

• In many countries, older persons lack adequate social protection: higher poverty incidence than the general population.

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New Demography Migration

Migration

• Increase in international migrants: from 155 million in 1990, to 214 million in 2010.• 3 % of world’s population and counting internal migrants over 10 %• Immigrants increase productive capacity of the economy and contribute to economic growth.• Large increase in migrants moving from less to more developed countries•Attractiveness of the global South. New poles of economic activity: China, Brazil, India.

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Migration Challenges

• Population health, with focus on health spanning the entire life course.• ¼ of the world population do not have adequate housing (UN-Habitat)

• Urbanization. Trend in the south China 37 % urban India 29 % “ 60 megacities in the world by 2015 Only four in most advanced world: Tokio, Los Angeles, NY, Osaka-Kobe-Kioto

Africa 53% urban, expected by 2030

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Migration ChallengesWorld Cities with over 1 million migrants

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More info: http://www.migrationinformation.org/datahub/gcmm.cfm

Migration ChallengesWorld Cities with over 25% foreign residents

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More info: http://www.migrationinformation.org/datahub/gcmm.cfm

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Dramatic rise in last 10 years• 300 M in 2005 to 1,1 Bn • 1,5 Bn expected in 2015 • Increasing among lower status groups• Increasing among groups that have not made the nutritional transition to western diet• British Heart Foundation: 2/3 of British obese or overweighted• Algeria, Botswana, South Africa, Cuba, Haiti, Guatemala, Peru, Egypt, Iraq, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, North Korea, Mongolia among most affected

Obesity

Photo source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/uguale/5594632153/

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Aging, Migration, Obesity

World GDP 2020

+7,5 New Demography


How do these trends affect themultinational firm you have chosen?

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World Population and Products

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Hans Rosling talk Global Population Growth Box by Box http://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_on_global_population_growth.html

http://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_on_global_population_growth.html

Three stories from India New products with a shifting focus: value for the many. Remaking expensive products to adapt to new mass markets

- Main points for discussion

- Apply ideas from the stories to your case (multinational)

New international context: Aging, migration, obesityHow do we address value for many?

Three stories by R.A. Mashelkar from India New products with a sifhting focus: value for the many. Remaking expensive products to adapt to new mass markets

New international context: Aging, migration, obesityHow do we address value for many?

http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/es/r_a_mashelkar_breakthrough_designs_for_ultra_low_cost_products.html


• Discuss in group ideas for your case –brought about from the presentation

• Discussion in the class

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Questions

Olga Gil, [email protected] olgag and TicWisdom

mailto:[email protected]

Demography and the Market

Business

Transcript of Demography and the Market