Democracy Corps-Resurgent Republic March 2014 · 4 29 63 +34 MARCH 2014 Unchanged in a year 28 64...
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Democracy Corps-Resurgent Republic March 2014
Transcript of Democracy Corps-Resurgent Republic March 2014 · 4 29 63 +34 MARCH 2014 Unchanged in a year 28 64...
Democracy Corps-Resurgent Republic March 2014
Methodology
This presentation is based on our latest national survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps, Resurgent Republic, and NPR. The survey of 950 2012 voters (950 weighted) and 840 likely 2014 voters nationwide was conducted from March 19-23, 2014. Unless otherwise noted, margin of error= +/-3.18 percentage points at 95% confidence. We continue to reach 50 percent of our respondents by cell phone, in order to account for ever-changing demographics and trying to accurately sample the full American electorate.
29
63
Right direction Wrong track
3
+34
Generally speaking, do you think that things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?
Likely Voters
Deep discontent with direction of country
4
29
63
+34
MARCH 2014
Unchanged in a year
28
64
+36
MARCH 2013
Generally speaking, do you think that things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?
LIKELY VOTERS
29
53
20 10
63
34
73
87
Right direction Wrong track
Democrats Total
+53
Independents
+77
5
+19 +34
Republicans
Generally speaking, do you think that things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?
A third wrong track among Democrats and three quarters among independents
12
34 46
59
5
24 48
72
6
Republican House
+48
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Republicans in Congress are handling their job in charge of the House of Representatives?
Democrats in Senate
+25
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Democrats in Congress are handling their job in charge of the Senate?
Deep discontent with both House Republicans and Senate Democrats, but 13 points higher for House
5 1 3
10
24
11
23
35 48
70
53
16
72
86
72
57
Strongly approve Strongly disapprove
7
Democrats Total
49
Independents
22 75 48
Republicans
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Republicans in Congress are handling their job in charge of the House of Representatives?
Almost three quarters of all voters and independents disapprove of Republican House
12
29
4 1
34
75
18
3
46
7
61 77
59
18
76
91
Strongly approve Strongly disapprove
8
Democrats Total
58
Independents
88 57 25
Republicans
Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Democrats in Congress are handling their job in charge of the Senate?
6 in ten voters, including three quarters of independents, disapprove of Democrats in Senate
24
52
14
2
46
87
35
8
41
5
49
76
51
10
61
90
Strongly approve Strongly disapprove
9
Democrats Total
+26
Independents
+82 +77 +5
Republicans
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
President Obama approval at 46 percent– but 61 percent of independents disapprove
2014 race
10
44
93
29
4
43
3
45
89
Vote for Democrat Vote for Republican
11
I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for Congress in 2014, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for – the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?
Democrats Total
+16
Independents
+85 +89 +1
Republicans
Congressional race at dead heat nationally
12
I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for Congress in 2014, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for – the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?
Democratic districts Total
+16 +19 +1
Republican districts
Democratic and Republican members have comparable margins
44
55
36 43
36
52
Vote for Democrat Vote for Republican
13
I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for Congress in 2014, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for – the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?
Youth
+10 +1 +16
Democrats ahead with young and Republicans with Seniors
Age 30-39 Age 40-49 Age 50-59 Seniors
+8 +2
52
43 50
44 39 36
42 42 42 49
Vote for Democrat Vote for Republican
2010:+21 2010: +1 2010: +17 2010: +10 2010: +6
14
I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for Congress in 2014, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for – the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?
Congressional vote chance score: Democrats and Republicans with equal loyalists
12 15 23
11 15
16 12
4
18
14 18
38
11
15
27
14
10
16
11
2
12
15
16
4
18 18
38
Democrats Total Independents Republicans
No chance vote Rep
Fair chance Dem
Small chance Dem
Slight chance Dem
Slight chance Rep
Small chance Rep
Fair chance Rep
No chance vote Dem
Health care reform
15
47
7
44
Support Oppose: notfar enough
Oppose: lawgoes too far
28
47
40
51
Support Oppose
(IF OPPOSE) Would you say you oppose the health care reform law because it goes too far in changing health insurance, or because it doesn't go far enough in changing health insurance?
16
Do you support or oppose the health care reform law that passed in 2010, also known as the Affordable Care Act or Obamacare?
+4
Total support health care reform:
54%
Oppose/too far:
44%
Electorate divided on Affordable Care Act– with 44 percent opposed because it goes too far
(IF OPPOSE) Would you say you oppose the health care reform law because it goes too far in changing health insurance, or because it doesn't go far enough in changing health insurance?
17
Do you support or oppose the health care reform law that passed in 2010, also known as the Affordable Care Act or Obamacare?
84
4 8
Support Oppose:not farenough
Oppose:law goestoo far
Total support health care reform:
88%
Oppose/too far:
8%
Electorate divided on Affordable Care Act– with 44 percent opposed because it goes too far
38
5
54
Support Oppose:not farenough
Oppose:law goestoo far
Total support health care reform:
43%
Oppose/too far:
54%
11 13
76
Support Oppose:not farenough
Oppose:law goestoo far
Total support health care reform:
24%
Oppose/too far:
76%
Democrats Independents Republicans
(IF OPPOSE) Would you say you oppose the health care reform law because it goes too far in changing health insurance, or because it doesn't go far enough in changing health insurance?
18
Do you support or oppose the health care reform law that passed in 2010, also known as the Affordable Care Act or Obamacare?
67
11 20
Support Oppose:not farenough
Oppose:law goes
too far
Total support health care
reform: 78%
Oppose/too far: 20%
Electorate divided on Affordable Care Act– with 44 percent opposed because it goes too far
Minority Youth Seniors White non-college
57
6
33
Support Oppose:not farenough
Oppose:law goes
too far
Total support health care
reform: 63%
Oppose/toofar:
33%
39
4
51
Support Oppose:not farenough
Oppose:law goes
too far
Total support health care
reform: 43%
Oppose/toofar:
51%
34
7
55
Support Oppose:not farenough
Oppose:law goes
too far
Total support health care
reform: 43%
Oppose/toofar:
55%
The big political debates
19
20
I'm going to read you a pair of statements. After I read both statements, please tell me if the FIRST or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own opinion, even if neither is exactly right.
The Democratic candidate says: the health care law is a start, but it's not perfect. We need to make it work for small businesses and get costs down. Give people more time and let them keep their current insurance if they want. So fix it, but build on the really good changes: this law prevents insurance companies from dropping people or raising rates when they get sick or denying people for preexisting conditions. They can no longer charge women more than men and must cover preventive care like cancer screenings. Repealing it with more political fighting will hurt a lot of people.
The Republican candidate says: Obamacare is hurting more people than it's helping, and keeping Washington in control of your health care is making the problem worse. Despite the President's promise, millions of people have had their insurance policies cancelled. Millions more are being forced to buy coverage they don't want or need, or can't afford. Obamacare is raising costs, premiums, and the deficit, and cutting funding and benefits for Medicare. It's time to pass health care reform that lowers costs and allows the people-not the federal government or the insurance companies-to control their own health care.
39
36
49
44
Health Care Debate
Voters choose Democrats’ healthcare message by 5 points
+5
21
Total Independents Republicans
+7 +54
I'm going to read you a pair of statements. After I read both statements, please tell me which ONE comes closer to your own opinion, even if neither is exactly right.
Health care law is a start; makes good changes
Obamacare is hurting more people than it helps
Democrats
+65 +5
Democrats respond with greater intensity to pro-ACA message, but Republican intensity edge with independents
39
69
33
11
49
80
43
20 36
9
42 61
44
14
50
74
Dem statement strongly Rep statement strongly
39 48
33
49 54
44
36 31 39
44 37
48
Dem statement strongly Rep statement strongly
22
Total Republican districts
+4
I'm going to read you a pair of statements. After I read both statements, please tell me which ONE comes closer to your own opinion, even if neither is exactly right.
Health care law is a start; makes good changes
Obamacare is hurting more people than it helps
Democratic districts
+17 +5
And Democrats have more support for position in their districts than Republicans in theirs
38
37
46
48
23
I'm going to read you a pair of statements. After I read both statements, please tell me if the FIRST or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own opinion, even if neither is exactly right.
The Democratic candidate says: The economy is recovering, but not for regular hardworking people. Incomes of CEOs and the top 1 percent are soaring, but in the real economy, people are working harder at jobs that don't pay enough to live on. We have got to do something. We must raise the minimum wage, help people afford job training and college, build a 21st century infrastructure, and stop unfair trade agreements that wipe out American jobs.
The Republican candidate says: The Obama Administration has had six years to get this economy going and their policies haven't worked. Monthly wages are going down, and there are not enough good-paying jobs to create opportunities for struggling families. We need to start making things in America again, and stop excessive regulations that are hurting the economy. It's time to produce more energy here at home, and educate people for the jobs of the 21st century.
Economic Policy Debate
Republicans edge Democrats in economic debate
+2
24
Total Independents Republicans
22 68
I'm going to read you a pair of statements. After I read both statements, please tell me which ONE comes closer to your own opinion, even if neither is exactly right.
Economy not recovering for regular people; raise minimum wage, invest in job training,
infrastructure
Obama has had 6 years to get economy going; stop regulations, produce energy at home
Democrats
70 2
38
71
27
10
46
83
35
14 37
6
42
69
48
12
57
82
Dem statement strongly Rep statement strongly
Republicans win economic debate with independents
39
33
45
46
25
I'm going to read you a pair of statements. After I read both statements, please tell me if the FIRST or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own opinion, even if neither is exactly right.
The Democratic candidate says: Political gridlock in Washington is holding our country back and hurting people. The parties should be working together to get things done, but Congress under Speaker Boehner is rated the worst in 60 years. The House Republicans are so intent on fighting President Obama, they shut down the government and voted to repeal Obamacare 50 times, when we should be working together to create good jobs and making the economy work for the middle class.
The Republican candidate says: Leadership starts at the top. President Clinton inherited a difficult economy, but worked with a Republican Congress to improve the economy and balance the budget. House Republicans have passed dozens of bills to create jobs and stop spending money we don't have, all of which have been ignored by President Obama and the Democratic Senate. We need more people in Washington who will work across party lines to grow the economy and help hardworking Americans.
Washington Dysfunction Debate
Debate over Washington dysfunction gridlocked
+1
39
70
28
12
45
76
37
17 33
6
38 62
46
13
53
78
Dem statement strongly Rep statement strongly
26
Total Independents Republicans
16 61
I'm going to read you a pair of statements. After I read both statements, please tell me which ONE comes closer to your own opinion, even if neither is exactly right.
Gridlock holds us back; Boehner’s Congress worst in 60 years; Parties should work together instead
of fighting and shut down
Leadership starts at top; Republicans have passed bills to create jobs but blocked by Obama and
Senate; work across party lines
Democrats
63 1
Democrats more intense in anti-DC response, though majority of independents agree with Republican dysfunction message
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