Demand Forecasting Assignment Guidelines
1
Demand Forecasting Assignment – Central State Scooters Case Dear Participant, By tomorrow, we shall be sending you an Excel sheet containing the data for the production/sale of different two wheelers in India during the period 1955-2003. Please use the data provided in the same, to build a forecasting model to predict the demand for two-wheelers in the Year 2007-08. To do so, you may adopt the following suggested approach: 1. Choose an appropriate forecasting variable, based on your interest and plausible appropriateness to the current requirements in the market (you may decide to choose the “Stock” or “Flow” variable for any vehicle or for the entire category). 2. Run a historical data analysis with the data provided (other variables, past demand etc.) You are free to augment the data set with any other variable that you may want to from external sources. 3. There are missing values in the data set – find an appropriate method to “fill” them or you may have to ignore these data points. 4. Check the quality of your forecasting model by comparing the forecast with the actual amount for recent periods (2002-03, which is available in the data set and for 2007-08, which you may get from other sources). 5. Please remember that if you use 2002-03 data to check the reliability of your forecasting model, do not use the same data for calibrating your model. 6. Discuss how the output of the forecasting model can be improved by utilizing other sources of information and methods – how can you develop a robust forecasting process for your problem. Once you are done with your analysis, write a short report (5-6 pages of text plus appendix) describing your experience on the following dimension: a) Describe your model and the basis of selecting the forecasted variable and the driver variables. b) Describe and interpret the output of the model and its performance. c) Discuss the cause of discrepancy between the “actual” and the “forecasted” for the period 2007-08. d) What do you think is necessary to build a more robust forecasting process in this category? Be as specific as possible. Reports are due in class on Oct. 1, 2012. Be prepared to make a short presentation on the key aspects of your report during class time.
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Transcript of Demand Forecasting Assignment Guidelines
Demand Forecasting Assignment – Central State Scooters Case
Dear Participant,
By tomorrow, we shall be sending you an Excel sheet containing the data for the production/sale of different two wheelers in India during the period 1955-2003. Please use the data provided in the same, to build a forecasting model to predict the demand for two-wheelers in the Year 2007-08.
To do so, you may adopt the following suggested approach:
1. Choose an appropriate forecasting variable, based on your interest and plausible appropriateness to the current requirements in the market (you may decide to choose the “Stock” or “Flow” variable for any vehicle or for the entire category).
2. Run a historical data analysis with the data provided (other variables, past demand etc.) You are free to augment the data set with any other variable that you may want to from external sources.
3. There are missing values in the data set – find an appropriate method to “fill” them or you may have to ignore these data points.
4. Check the quality of your forecasting model by comparing the forecast with the actual amount for recent periods (2002-03, which is available in the data set and for 2007-08, which you may get from other sources).
5. Please remember that if you use 2002-03 data to check the reliability of your forecasting model, do not use the same data for calibrating your model.
6. Discuss how the output of the forecasting model can be improved by utilizing other sources of information and methods – how can you develop a robust forecasting process for your problem.
Once you are done with your analysis, write a short report (5-6 pages of text plus appendix) describing your experience on the following dimension:
a) Describe your model and the basis of selecting the forecasted variable and the driver variables.
b) Describe and interpret the output of the model and its performance.c) Discuss the cause of discrepancy between the “actual” and the “forecasted” for
the period 2007-08.d) What do you think is necessary to build a more robust forecasting process in
this category? Be as specific as possible.
Reports are due in class on Oct. 1, 2012. Be prepared to make a short presentation on the key aspects of your report during class time.
