Dec, 20 Aricent Infra Ltd (ARIL) Infra Ltd.pdf · Aricent Infra Ltd (ARIL) now known as Kyra...
Transcript of Dec, 20 Aricent Infra Ltd (ARIL) Infra Ltd.pdf · Aricent Infra Ltd (ARIL) now known as Kyra...
Dec, 20th 2013
Aricent Infra Ltd (ARIL) (Kyra Landscape Ltd)
Initia
ting Coverage
Rating: BUY Target Price: 175 Upside 85% CMP: INR 94 (as on 20th Dec 2013)
Upcoming Project to boost growth
Aricent Infra Ltd (ARIL) now known as Kyra landscape Ltd is engaged in the business of infrastructure development and real estate projects mainly catering to Mumbai and Thane region. The company got incorporated as a chemical company in 1998 which got listed on BSE in the year of 2000. Due to non performance of the chemical business the management decided to sell its whole stake to ARIL in 2010. After the stake sale the company diversified by changing its business profile from chemical business to real-estate.
Upcoming Project to boost business growth: Post change in the business profile ARIL made its first investment into a huge land parcel of 25 acre at Dombivali, Thane with the total cost of INR 320 mn. It has completed the land acquisition process and plans to develop a whole township over the next ten years that will include residential, commercial buildings, restaurants, schools, hospital etc. At present the company has received all the clearance and is expected to commence construction work within next six months. Due to strong residential demand in the Dombivali region company has started receiving enquiries and bookings for pre-launch will be opened soon. The project is still into investment and development stage and any significant revenue is expected from FY15 onwards. We expect saleable area sold to pick up from FY15 onwards primarily on the back of mid income projects and limited geographical development in Mumbai and Navi Mumbai area. We expect sales volume of the company to pick up from 0.25mnsqft in FY15E to 0.5mnsqft in FY16E and 1mnsqft in FY18E with total sales value rising at CAGR of 75% from INR 47mn in FY13 to INR 914 mn in FY15E and INR 1344 mn in FY18E.
Pre Sales collection and growing construction activity to improve Cash Flow: The Company had negative free cash over FY12-FY13 primarily on account of investment made into Dombivali project. We expect cash flow to improve only from FY15E onwards with growing construction activities and rising Pre sales booking. We expect the company to recognize major revenue from FY15E on achieving 25% of sales booking with sales volume and construction activity to pick up from 0.25mnsft in FY15E to 0.5mnsft in FY16E and 1mnsft in FY18E. Mumbai Thane Real estate - one of the strongest markets in India: Historically, the demand for real estate in Mumbai and Thane region has been high due to increasing population and limited geographical development. However post Jan- 2013 the sales volume has declined by 15% largely due to soaring real estate prices, making it unaffordable for the masses. We believe given the rising middle class population and rising property prices in western suburbs of Mumbai, the mid income projects in the far areas will see pickup in demand in coming years. For companies such as ARIL who have invested into development of the whole township will be one of the major beneficiaries. Valuation:. At the CMP of INR 94 ARIL is trading at PE 12.3x its FY18E EPS of INR 7.6. However with good revenue visibility we have use DCF approach to arrive at the rightful valuation. A land bank is developed over a period of time and the resulting assets are sold over a period of time, the time value of cash flow (both incoming and outgoing) needs to be considered. Based on DCF valuation we assigned a BUY rating to it with a target price of INR 175 with an upside potential of 85% over the next three Years.
BSE NSE Bloomberg Reuters
530967 NA ARIIL:IN ARIC.BO
Sensex ARIL
52 Wk: Hi/Lo 21483/ 17448
102/58
Mkt Cap (INR bn) 3454 5.38
Equity (INR Mn) 3767 274.8
Mon. Avg. Vol 136000
Face Value 5
* - TTM standalone basis ACE equity
Share Holding %
Sep-13 Jun-13
FII 0 0
DII 0.05 0.05
Corporate 37.31 33.54
Promoter 2.8 2.8
Public & Other 59.84 63.61 Returns % Abs Perf
Rel to Sensex
1 Month 1.45 5
3 Months 29 11
1 Year 7.06 8
Relative Price Performance
Financial Summary
Y/E Mar Sales (INR mn)
YoY (%)
EBITDA (INR mn)
EBITDA (%)
PAT (INR mn)
YoY (%)
EPS (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
FY13 47 0.0 12 25.2 8 0 0.2 3.1 3.0 627.3 1473.2
FY14E 50 5.0 13 26.0 8 0.3 0.2 3.0 2.2 625.5 1117.5
FY15E 914 1741.6 560 61.3 345 4071.6 6.3 69.2 52.6 15.0 10.3
FY16E 1,125 23.1 613 54.5 370 7.3 6.7 48.7 47.1 14.0 9.3
FY17E 1,219 8.3 633 52.0 380 2.6 6.9 37.7 41.3 13.6 8.9
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Khandwala Securities Limited
Company Background
ARIL is a real estate development company with major presence inlow cost township development. Post Acquisition thrust for the company. The company has well expertise managementThe company is preparing itself to createconvert its land bank into a township which will include and hospital. QIP
Investment rationale
Upcoming Project to boost business growth:
bank to develop residential and commercial real estate projects. One of the major where it started acquiring 25 acre of land (sealable area of 182) in Dombivali Mumbai region with the totaprocess and has plans to develop a whole township schools, hospital etc to be executed over next 10township will be built in three phases. 3-4 years. At present it has completed the land acquisition process with all construction work within next six months. due to strong residential demand and it will open
Sufficient land Bank to be Dnext Ten years by ARIL
Source: Company, KSL research
Development and phasing- Key highlights:
� Total Duration planned for execution of the
� For Construction planning, the plan is broken into three phase
� Each Phase will take 3-4 years for completion from s
� In first phase it will develop residential project over 1mnsqft
� Second phase and third phase it will develop residential, commercial and hospital over 2mnsqft
0.250.5
0.7511.3
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3.5 mnsqft
is a real estate development company with major presence in Thane region, Mumbai Post Acquisition the company’s Dombivali project has become ahas well expertise management with emphasis on contemporary architecture.
pany is preparing itself to create a landmark in township development. The company is contemplating to a township which will include commercial development, residential, restaurants, schools
growth: Post acquisition in 2010 ARIL has made major residential and commercial real estate projects. One of the major investments
acre of land (sealable area of 18-20 Acre) or 3mnsqft (Considering Floor space index of in Dombivali Mumbai region with the total cost of INR 320 mn. At present ARIL has
plans to develop a whole township that will include residential, commercial buildings, restaurants, executed over next 10 year time frame. As per our discussion with the management the
In each phase it will develop and construct 1mnsqft of land 4 years. At present it has completed the land acquisition process with all the clearance and
six months. The management has stated that company has started receivingit will open Pre sales bookings soon.
Developed over Total Area Sold and Sales Value (
Source: Company, KSL research
Key highlights:
Total Duration planned for execution of the saleable 18-20 acre is 10 years
For Construction planning, the plan is broken into three phase
4 years for completion from start to end
In first phase it will develop residential project over 1mnsqft
Second phase and third phase it will develop residential, commercial and hospital over 2mnsqft
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31125
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Total Sales Value (INR mn)Blended sales realisation (INR mn)Total Area Sold (mnsqft)
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Mumbai focused on real estate has become a major area of
with emphasis on contemporary architecture. he company is contemplating to residential, restaurants, schools
major investment into land investments was made in 2012
(Considering Floor space index of has completed the acquisition
will include residential, commercial buildings, restaurants, As per our discussion with the management the
t 1mnsqft of land within a period of the clearance and is expected to start
The management has stated that company has started receiving enquiries
Total Area Sold and Sales Value ( INR mn)
Second phase and third phase it will develop residential, commercial and hospital over 2mnsqft
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Total Sales Value (INR mn)Blended sales realisation (INR mn)Total Area Sold (mnsqft)
Khandwala Securities Limited 3
Pre sales booking and growing construction activity to improve cash flow: The Company had negative free cash over FY12-FY13 primarily on account of investment (INR 320 mn) made into the Dombivali project. These projects are into the investment and development mode hence any significant revenue or cash flow is only expected with growing construction and Pre sales activities. We expect the company to recognize revenue from FY15E on achieving 25% of sales booking with sales volume and construction activity to pick up from 0.25mnsft in FY15E to 0.5mnsft in FY16E and 1mnsft in FY18E. The total sales value rising at CAGR of 75% from INR 47mn in FY13 to INR 914 mn in FY15E and INR 1344 mn in FY18E. Capex required Land Bank: Of the total capex requirement of INR 1406 till 2018E company plans to raise debt of INR 200 mn in FY15 for its initial capex requirement and later it will utilize its internal accruals from pre sales proceeds along with keeping equity route open for its future cash requirements. Sufficient land bank for next 5 years: ARIL has sufficient land bank which will be developed over next 5 years. The management has further indicated that they will be looking for similar land bank in the same Dombivali region which will help company to continue its growth momentum. However we believe to continue its growth momentum it needs to wisely deploy its cash to acquire new land. Mumbai Thane Real estate - one of the strongest markets in India: Macro markets in India have witnessed sharp corrections and saw strong recoveries in the past few years. However, among all, Mumbai is the strongest and most-resilient real estate market. This was evident during the downturn in 2008-09; Mumbai (excluding Navi Mumbai) was the last to see property price corrections and was amongst the first to recovery. Considering July 2007 levels as a base of 100, Mumbai property prices came down to 83 and within less than 6 months, it rose back to the original levels. Currently, it is at 121. This, when compared to other active markets, it is the fastest and strongest recovery.
Property price movement in top four cities Robust growth in average price per sq ft. for residential properties in Dombivali (E)
Source: Company, KSL research Source: Company, KSL research Historically, the demand for real estate in Mumbai has been high due to increasing population and limited geographical development. The monthly absorption in October 2008 was just 3.5msf, which increased gradually at a good pace and reached its peak in March 2012, when it touched a monthly absorption of 20mnsft. However, post-March 2012, the absorption rate has declined by 15%, largely due to soaring real estate prices, making it unaffordable for the masses. Hence we believe the high capital rates within the domains of Greater Mumbai; peripheral areas would continue to report healthy development as well as traction in affordable housing segment. Micro-markets like Dombivali, Thane and Mira Road Bhayander have witnessed a healthy growth in the past, and are expected to witness healthy traction given the affordable ticket sizes. For the last 4-5 quarters, the government was slow in approving new projects, which resulted into a slump in new launches in Mumbai. However, in the past few months, the government has shown signs of easing its policies and started approving projects quicker than in the recent past. Though the pace of approvals is nowhere near to the historical pace, we expect it to pick up gradually. This will result into higher number of new launches and faster execution, which would increase the volumes going forward
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INR./SqFt
Khandwala Securities Limited 4
Revenue to see strong turnaround post FY15E: After taking over the company in 2010 and due to change in the business profile into real estate there is barely any revenue and profit that the company reported in the past. However with Dombivali project on the cards and strong visibility we expect company’s revenue and earnings to
grow strongly at CAGR of 75% and 93% respectively over next five years.
Strong sales CAGR: Given the huge land bank of
almost 30mnsqft for developing mid income projects
and strong demand from the rising middle class, we
expect ARIL revenue to post a strong CAGR of 75%
over FY13 -FY18E.
PAT to show strong CAGR: We expect the company to
report strong earnings CAGR of 93% over FY13-FY18E
backed by robust top-line growth and stable EBITDA
margin likely over the next five years.
Net Sales Trend PAT & PATM Trend
Source: Company, KSL research Source: Company, KSL research
Margins likely to sustain: Margins are expected to improve from 25% to 60% mainly because of higher revenue
contribution from the upcoming mid income project which is a high margin business.
EBITDA & EBITDA Margin Trends Cost & EBITDA Break Up
Source: Company, KSL research Source: Company, KSL research
47 50
914
1,125 1,219
1,344
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33.2 31.6 31.8
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PAT (INR Mn) PAT M (%)
25.2 26.0
61.3
54.5 52.0 51.8
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FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E
Other Exp % Staff cost %
RM % EBITDA Margin
Khandwala Securities Limited 5
Return ratios to improve over FY13-FY18E: With
improving financials over FY13-18E we expect
company to report strong ROCE of ~34% over largely
driven by robust top-line growth and strong EBITDA
margin.
Debt to Equity at comfort zone: The D/E ratio
stands at 0.85x in FY15E which looks quite
comfortable given the capital intensive nature of the
industry. Further with improving sales and profits
the D/E ratio is expected to ease significantly at 0.18x
levels.
ROE & ROCE Trend (%) Debt/Equity (x)
Source: Company, KSL research Source: Company, KSL research
0.1
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ROE ROCE
0.48
0.82 0.85
0.43
0.17
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D/E (x)
Khandwala Securities Limited 6
Peer Comparison Company Name
Year Sales (INR mn)
Opt Profit
Net Profit
EPS EBITDA (%)
PATM (%)
ROCE (%)
ROE (%)
TTM P/E
TTM EV/EBITDA
(x)
P/BV
Aricent Infra 201303 47.27 11.91 8.22 0.30 25.20 17.38 3.07 4.43 450.95 440.76 306.70
HDIL 201303 10252.39 13134.45 735.65 1.75 128.11 7.18 0.71 5.46 0.19 0.00 4.99
Kolte Patil Developers
201303 7274.80 2285.89 1239.12 14.18 31.42 17.03 17.39 24.25 0.71 4.14 2.14
Sobha Developers
201303 18645.41 5537.70 2170.59 22.15 29.58 11.60 10.50 14.64 1.32 12.96 7.25
Unitech 201303 24445.88 5178.16 2041.54 0.80 21.03 8.29 1.69 2.41 0.32 12.72 18.79
Valuation and Outlook
A real estate company generates revenue streams from its various assets at different points in time. Since a land bank is developed over a period of time and the resulting assets are sold over a period of time, the time value of cash flows (both incoming and outgoing) needs to be considered. Also, properties generate income by way of sale of property hence; we use DCF to arrive at the rightful valuation. At CMP of INR.93, the stock is trading at PE 12.1x FY15E and EPS of INR 7.8.The Company has good revenue visibility hence we have used the DCF valuation methodology with an explicit 10 year forecast period to arrive at the rightful valuation. We value ARIL at a 1 year forward DCF value and assigned a BUY rating to it with a target price of INR 175 with an upside potential of 85%.
Valuation
Cost OF Equity & terminal Growth rate
Risk Free rate 8.5%
Beta 1.1
Market Risk Premium 5.0
Cost of Equity 12.3%
Terminal Growth rate 3
Particular (INR mn) Amount
Sum of present value of cash flows to firm 4410.4
during the explicit 10 year forecast period of FY15E- FY24E (A)
Discounted terminal value (B) 4829.1
Firm Value (A+B) 9239.4
Less- Debt 425.12
Equity Value INR mn 8814.3
No. of shares (in mn) 54.8
Equity value per share (in INR) 160.5
1 year forward DCF value per share (in INR) 175
Target price per share for ARIL (in INR) 175
Investment concerns Slowdown in real estate market: Currently, real estate scenario in India, especially in Mumbai, is quite stable. The absorption rate after falling considerably in March 2012 has improved in March 2013. However if developers do not consider price reduction we may once again see further slowdown which will have negative impact on the real estate companies. With property prices stagnation spreading in all directions, real estate in India is undergoing realignment. The real estate market in Mumbai has been on a slower lane for a long time due to delay in project approvals. There are multiple no objection certificates that are required from Environment Ministry, High-rise committee and the Municipal Corporation to clear a project plan, and the process is tedious. Approvals have been slow over the last 1-2 years. The Maharashtra Government is looking to fast track the project clearances which can be positive for the market However; the growth also depends on the policies adopted by the government to facilitate investments mainly in the economic and industrial sector.
Khandwala Securities Limited 7
Consolidated Financials (Y/E Mar)
P&L (INR Mn) FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E
Net sales 47 50 914 1,125 1,219 1,344
Total exp 44 45 364 521 594 657
EBIDTA 4 5 551 604 624 687
Depreciation 0 0 32 44 54 62
EBIT 4 5 518 559 571 625
Interest 0 1 16 19 12 4
Other income 8 8 10 9 9 9
PBT 12 12 511 550 568 630
(-) Tax 4 4 164 176 182 202
PAT 8 8 348 374 386 429
Balance sheet (INR Mn) FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E
Share Capital 275 275 275 275 275 275
Total Reserves (7) (0) 226 490 741 1,019
Net worth 268 275 500 765 1,015 1,294
Secu. Loans 0 96 296 246 146 0
Uns. Loans 129 129 129 79 0 0
Total Debt 129 225 425 325 146 0
Minority Int 9.09 0 0 0 0 0
Total Liability 406 500 926 1,090 1,161 1,294
Net Assets 324 340 588 644 690 728
Investment 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4
Sundry Debtors (1) 1 125 170 200 239
Inventory (0) 0 751 925 1,002 1,104
Cash and Bank 3 82 (28) 51 53 107
Other CA 146 146 146 146 146 146
Loans and Advance 62 62 62 62 62 62 Total CA 209 291 1,057 1,353 1,463 1,659
CL 126 129 626 771 835 920
Provisions 8 10 100 143 163 180
Total CL 134 138 726 913 998 1,100
Net CA 76 153 331 440 465 559
Total Asset 406 500 926 1,090 1,161 1,294
Cash Flow (INR Mn) FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E
Net CFO 199.6 5.0 92.3 387.1 414.2 448.3
Cash Flow Invest. (320.0) (20.0) (280.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0)
Cash Flow Financial 120.8 94.0 77.9 (208.3) (312.7) (293.4)
Net Cash 0.4 79.1 (109.8) 78.8 1.5 54.9
Key ratios FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E No. of Share (mn) 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0
P/E (x) 627.3 615.1 14.9 13.8 13.4 12.1
P/BV (x) 19.3 18.8 10.3 6.8 5.1 4.0
Mcap/Sales (x) 109.5 104.3 5.7 4.6 4.2 3.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 1,473.2 1,101.2 10.2 9.1 8.5 7.5
Diluted EPS 0.2 0.2 6.3 6.8 7.0 7.8
Div./share (Rs) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
BV (Rs.) 4.9 5.0 9.1 13.9 18.5 23.5
EBIDTA (%) 25.2 26.0 61.3 54.5 52.0 51.8
NPM (%) 17.5 16.9 38.0 33.2 31.7 31.9
RoE (%) 3.1 3.1 69.5 48.9 38.0 33.1
ROCE (%) 3.0 2.6 57.0 52.1 49.9 49.0
Deb. T/o (Days) -11.4 10.0 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0
Inv. T/o (Days) 0 0 300 300 300 300
D/E Ratio 0.48 0.82 0.85 0.43 0.14 0.00
Khandwala Securities Limited 8
Company Background Board of Directors
Name Designation
Mr. Dipesh harish Joshi Chairperson
Mr. Harish Narshi Joshi Director
Mr. Nitesh Dipesh Joshi Director
Mr. Tushar Vijay Patil Non Executive Director
Mr. Dhananjay Rajendra kale Non Executive Director
Mr. Narendra Pratapray Doshi Non Executive Director
Mr. Paresh Vinodray Shah Non Executive Director
Mr. Keyur Prakash Shah Non Executive Director
Khandwala Securities Limited 9
KSL Ratings
Target Price refeINR to one year unless specified;
LTP: Last Trading Price
BUY: Expected return >15%
ADD: Expected return 0-15%
REDUCE: Expected decline 0-15%
SELL: Expected decline >15%
Company Risk is based on the systematic risk of the stock. (1-year Beta)
HIGH: >1.2
MEDIUM: 0.8-1.2
LOW: < 0.8
Head Office Branch Office
Khandwala Securities Limited
Vikas Building, Ground Floor,
Green Street, Fort,
MUMBAI - 400 023.
Tel. No. +91 22 4076 7373
Fax No. +91 22 4076 7377/78
E-mail: [email protected]
Khandwala Securities Limited
C8/9, Dr. Herekar Park,
Off. Bhandarkar Road,
PUNE - 411 004
Tel. No. +91 20 2567 1404/06
Fax. No. +91 20 2567 1405
Email: [email protected]
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