Day 3 Analogous, estimates and semantics for process
Transcript of Day 3 Analogous, estimates and semantics for process
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Estimation course
Introducing
ANALOGOUS ESTIMATE
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This is how Mgt views your estimates
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This is how they will treat the estimates
Take your time and do them well
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Analogous estimates
What is an analogy?
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Analogy explained
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Steps to analogy
1. Find out the parameters of project2.Find the project from past which
maps best3.Find out the changes as they are
today4.Account for the changes5.Compute the estimates
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Examples
Building a standard home
6 months
Road trip to Ladakh on a Pulsar
15 Calendar days
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Analogous Estimates are applicable when
The following are available1.Historical records2.High Congruence3.Trustable data4.Same units5.Variance in operatingConditions known
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Analogous :
Project Parameters, Performance details of previous projects . Minor variance in operating conditions
Precise Inputs
Precise Output
Project Likely timeLikely cost
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Typical timelines
http://www.amazon.com/Eliciting-Analyzing-Expert-Judgment-Probability/dp/0898714745
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Process Semantics
Action Block
I
STARTING INPUT
TECHNIQUES AND TOOLS
MAIN OUTPUT
BYPRODUCTS& WASTE
FEEDBACK LOOP
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Estimation in Windows copy file dialog
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Top down and bottoms up
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Assignment on Expert judgment
1. Context : You are the President of US and have got confirmed intelligence on the hideout of Osama Bin Laden and have decided to authorize his capture/killing . The operation involves Transporting elite Navy seals, Air Operations to transport ammunitions and equipment , Land operations to neutralize the guards and defenses and recover evidences . Finally transport the seals and body of Osama to a Naval vessel and do the final rites .
2. Divide the team into 3 groups : Air , Navy , Land3. Each team solves the problem of finding the time and aggregate cost of the
operation .4. Allow each team to complete the plans and summarize the figures to team5. Compare the estimates and plannings with actual operation : http://
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Osama_bin_Laden#Operation_Neptune_Spear
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What’s Your Message? DRIVE WELL