Daily market commentary 10102014

DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY

10 October 2014 | 7:22 AM

Daily Market Commentary | 10 October 2014 of 13

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| Economics|*Foreign flows | JSE performance |*Results diary | LDT | Economic calendar| Other reports

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(* when available)

Key daily driver

Nedbank Capital Strategic Research | [email protected] | +27 11 295 5430

SNIPPETS

(Charts of the day) SA mining and manufacturing production contracts on an annualised basis, manufacturing contraction eases

(Currencies) Rand strengthens against USD, but rises above R11.00 in NY session; euro and pound weaken overnight after intraday gains in the local session

(Equities) Top 40 rises 0.16%, led by resources; US equities downbeat; Asian markets follow negative this morning

(Economics) US initial jobless claims fall, wholesale inventories rise on lower sales; BOE leaves interest rate unchanged

Key overnight factors and upcoming events


Economic calendar

Date Region Event Actual/expected/prior Implications

09/10 SA Mining and manufacturing prodn.

-- Mining production slumps, while manufacturing contraction slows

09/10 UK BOE interest rate decision

0.50%/0.50%/0.50% BOE keeps rates unchanged as much slack still exists in the economy

09/10 US Initial jobless claims 287K/295K/288K Jobless claims falls marginally as overall labour market recovery remains upbeat

10/10 UK Trade balance £Bn --/-9.6/-10.19 Trade deficit likely to narrow marginally, on the back of higher exports due to the weaker pound

10/10 US Monthly Budget statement $Bn

--/82/75.1 Budget surplus likely to rise on higher tax revenues

Source: Nedbank

Other reports produced back to top


To request reports published by Nedbank Capital in full (t & c’s apply), please contact us (details above)

Guide to the Economy: October 2014 Mining Production: August 2014

Manufacturing production: August 2014

mailto:[email protected]




Charts of the day back to top


SA mining production contracted by 10.1% y/y in August from -7.7% in July, much below forecasts of -5.6%. The main reason for the decline

had been PGM production, which slumped by 45% y/y from 45.2% previously, and contributing -11.6% to the overall index – the largest

contributor towards the overall index.

Gold production slumped 8% y/y, while diamonds fell 30.2%, contributing -1.1% and -0.9% towards the overall index. The slump in platinum

production is as a result of PGM sales, which have remained depressed since February this year, as well as a result of a very slow recovery in

production after the end of the 5-month long platinum labour strike in the first half of the year.

Iron ore, manganese ore, copper and nickel were the bright spots, with production rising on an annualised basis, but contributed a

cumulative 4.6% towards the overall index, as a result of the smaller weighting.

Mining production is still suffering from the effects of the platinum mining strike and while the impact of the strike will abate as the year

progresses, activity is likely to remain lacklustre partly as a result of the seasonal decline related to the December holidays. A slowdown in

global growth feeding into lower commodity prices as well as infrastructure constraints locally will also keep output relatively weak.

Manufacturing production fell by 1.2% y/y from an upwardly revised 8.1% contraction in August (revised from -7.9%), better than forecasts

of -3.6%. Production of motor vehicles, parts and accessories, and other transport equipment surged in August, by 16.6% y/y, and

contributed 2.3% towards the overall index.

‘Wood and wood products, paper, publishing and printing’ fell 11.3%, and subtracted 1.1% from the overall index, while food and

beverages, petroleum, glass, non-metallic mineral products, basic iron and steel and other metal products all contracted on an annualised

basis, and contributed negatively towards overall production.

The performance of the manufacturing sector will remain lacklustre in the months ahead. While output growth could be boosted by base

effects, improving global demand and a weaker rand, this will be offset by weak domestic demand.

Underlying local economic conditions remain weak. The Reserve Bank continues to face the dilemma of striking a balance between weak

growth and high inflation. Nedbank anticipates the Reserve Bank will continue on its path of moderate tightening, hiking by another 25 bps

in November. This, however, will depend on rand movements.

Platinum and gold lead the slump in mining production

Source: Nedbank Group Economic Unit

Manufacturing contraction eases as projected by PMI

Source: I-net, Nedbank

PGM production continues decline as slow recovery post the strike does not materialise

Source: Bloomberg, Nedbank



Currencies back to top

Business Banking FX | +27 11 535 4003 | Corporate FX | +2711 535 4002 | Institutional FX | +2711 535 4005

After the euphoria of the move the previous evening, with the rand having made significant gains overnight, the local session got under way

with the rand trading at 11.0300. As was to be expected, we initially encountered significant demand for dollars, pushing the rand to around

11.0700. Once the demand for dollars was satiated, the rand managed to trade below the 11.000 level managing to trade to 10.9630 at its

best, however the momentum of this move to the downside soon diminished and we were trading around the current levels at 11.0600 by

the time of the local close.

The majors had a rather subdued session as well when compared to the previous session, the euro confined between 1.2677 and 1.2736

against the dollar on the day. This morning it is currently straddling the 1.2700 level. Gold has managed to maintain the gains which were

made and is currently trading at 1222.00.

No local data scheduled for release today, very little from Europe, from the U.S. we have import and export prices.

The markets appear to have been exceptionally long of dollars ahead of the FOMC minutes release, and the significant moves the previous

evening attributable to stop loss triggering as the longs exited, at the current levels many market participants are re-establishing long dollar

positions, emerging markets appear to remain particularly vulnerable due to structural and economic factors .

Possible trading range in the rand today 10.9500 to 11.1500

*Please note that the sign on the % change reflects the change on the headline number. The narrative indicates the trend direction over the month.

For trade in any of these currencies, contact our FX dealing desks

Majors Last price

%Δ

-1d

%Δ

MTD

%Δ

YTDUSD trend

GBPUSD 1.61 0.02 -0.60 -2.68 USD strength

EURUSD 1.27 0.13 0.58 -7.88 USD weakness

USDJPY 107.81 -0.10 -1.68 2.42 USD weakness

USDAUD 1.14 0.16 -0.38 1.78 USD weakness

Rand crosses Last price

%Δ

-1d

%Δ

MTD

%Δ

YTDZAR trend

USDZAR 11.07 -0.03 -2.04 5.18 ZAR strength

GBPZAR 17.84 -0.02 -2.62 2.36 ZAR strength

EURZAR 14.06 0.10 -1.47 -3.12 ZAR strength

AUDZAR 9.71 -0.20 -1.68 3.34 ZAR strength

ZARJPY 9.74 -0.09 0.35 -2.59 ZAR strength

African FX Last price

%Δ

-1d

%Δ

MTD

%Δ

YTDZAR trend

ZARMWK (Malaw ian kw acha) 38.33 0.04 5.56 -6.25 ZAR strength

ZARBWP (Botsw ana pula) 0.83 0.02 0.73 -0.73 ZAR strength

ZARKES (Kenyan shilling) 8.04 -0.01 1.69 -1.96 ZAR strength

ZARMUR (Mauritian rupee) 2.84 0.26 1.91 -0.45 ZAR strength

ZARNGN (Nigerian naira) 14.95 0.51 3.21 -1.70 ZAR strength

ZARGHS (Ghanian cedi) 0.29 -0.62 -0.35 27.74 ZAR weakness

ZARZMW (Zambian kw acha) 0.57 0.04 2.61 8.15 ZAR strength

Source: Bloomberg & Nedbank Capital T ime

Month

trend

Month

trend

Month

trend

2014/10/10 07:04

USDZAR


EUR/USD


$/R (close, high and low)

R 10.70

R 10.80

R 10.90

R 11.00

R 11.10

R 11.20

R 11.30

R 11.40

10/06 10/07 10/08 10/09 10/10

USDZAR $/R HIGH $/R LOW

€/$ (close, high, low)

$1.24

$1.24

$1.25

$1.25

$1.26

$1.26

$1.27

$1.27

$1.28

$1.28

$1.29

10/06 10/07 10/08 10/09 10/10

EURUSD EURUSD High EURUSD Low


Precious metals and oils back to top


Bullion maintained the up-trend yesterday, after the spike post the FOMC minutes were released. Despite the price remaining within a

narrow trading range, it rose by around $7/oz. on the day. Overall, safe-haven demand remains largely absent in the gold market, hence the

price is expected to remain downbeat as the dollar will likely remain strong over the medium term.

The Brent crude price sank further yesterday, falling below $91/bbl. as a result of the supply glut that is persisting in the market. US

production will likely remain upbeat, reducing the dependence on imported fuel. Overall, the price is expected to remain below the

$100/bbl. mark over the medium term, as production remains upbeat.

Commodities Last price

%Δ

-1d

%Δ

MTD

%Δ

YTD

Brent near future ($) 88.31 -1.93 -6.72 -20.30

Gold spot ($) 1 221.79 -0.18 1.09 1.39

Platinum spot ($) 1 260.13 -1.18 -3.22 -8.24

Source: Bloomberg & Nedbank Capital T ime 2014/10/10 07:04

Month

trend

Platinum vs Gold

Source: Bloomberg

Brent Crude vs West Texas Intermediate

Source: Bloomberg

Platinum vs. Gold

$1 160.00

$1 180.00

$1 200.00

$1 220.00

$1 240.00

$1 260.00

$1 280.00

$1 300.00

10/06 10/07 10/08 10/09 10/10

PLATINUM GOLD

Brent Crude vs West Texas Intermediate

$78.00

$80.00

$82.00

$84.00

$86.00

$88.00

$90.00

$92.00

$94.00

10/06 10/07 10/08 10/09 10/10

BRENT WTI



Fixed income and interest rates back to top

Bond flow sales |+2711 535 4021 | Corporate Money Markets | +2711 535 4007 | Business Bank Money Markets | +2711 535 4006

R186 opened this morning at 8.08% along with ZAR at 11.0250 as broad USD weakness materialized post release of the FED minutes.R186

rallied to print as strong as 8.03% before attracting sellers into the afternoon to officially close at 8.08%. ZAR had a brief look below 11.00

and managed to print 10.9630 before giving back the day’s gains and closed around 11.0500.

The bond curve continued to steepen in the front end as demand emerged for belly bonds, as well as in the back-end as positioning remains

saturated for the time being.

The swap curve concluded the day fairly unchanged with 3v10 at 90bps and 2v10 at 118bps.Local data releases in the form of mining

production and manufacturing disappointed on the day but have to assume was already priced in.

Bonds Last price

Δ

1d

Δ

MTD

Δ

YTD

% bps bps bps

R158-0.9 yrs 6.58 4.40 -2.40 77.50

R203-2.9 yrs 7.04 -8.70 -14.20 11.60

R208-6.5 yrs 7.70 -7.90 -18.30 4.60

R186-12.2 yrs 8.10 -6.10 -22.60 -14.20

R2048-33.4 yrs 8.82 -3.20 -17.20 -36.80

US 10 yr 2.31 0.00 -17.60 -71.50

UK 10 yr 2.26 -0.09 -6.72 -25.15

German 10 yr 0.91 -0.11 -4.33 -53.03

Japan 10 yr 0.50 2.24 -5.27 -32.12

Money Market Last price

Δ

1d

Δ

MTD

Δ

YTD

% bps bps bps

SA repo rate 5.75 0.00 0.00 75.00

SA prime rate 9.25 0.00 0.00 75.00

SA CPI (MTD = previous month) 6.40 10.00

SA 3m JIBAR 6.08 0.00 -5.80 85.80

SA 3m NCD 6.08 0.00 -6.25 85.00

SA 6m NCD 6.75 0.00 -2.50 110.00

SA 12m NCD 7.35 0.00 -3.75 133.75

US 3m LIBOR 0.23 -0.20 -0.60 -1.70

UK 3m LIBOR 0.56 -0.19 -0.44 3.56

Japan 3m LIBOR 0.10 0.02 -0.04 -2.80


Month

trend

Month

trend FRAs and Swaps Last price

Δ

1d

Δ

MTD

Δ

YTD

% bps bps bps

3X6 FRA 6.33 1.00 -6.00 97.00

6X9 FRA 6.67 1.00 -8.00 105.00

9X12 FRA 6.87 1.00 -11.00 87.00

18X21 FRA 7.38 1.00 -13.00 44.00

SA 2yr Sw ap 6.89 2.03 -8.33 77.00

SA 3yr Sw ap 7.15 2.00 -10.00 51.50

SA 5yr Sw ap 7.51 1.50 -17.00 14.50

SA 10yr Sw ap 8.06 2.00 -18.30 -18.50

SA 15yr Sw ap 8.38 2.00 -19.30 -35.75

Spreads Last price

Δ

1d

Δ

MTD

Δ

YTD

% bps bps bps

2v10y - 1.17 0.03 9.97 95.50

3v10y - 0.91 0.00 8.30 70.00

R186-R203 1.03 2.60 -8.40 -25.80

R2048-R186 0.70 2.90 5.40 -22.60

5y-R186 - 0.67 7.60 5.60 28.70

10y-R186 - 0.12 8.10 4.30 -4.30

15y-R186 0.20 8.10 3.30 -21.55


Month

trend

Month

trend


Equities back to top

Cash equities | +2711 294 3221

South Africa

After a solid start following the overnight rally in the US on Wednesday evening, the Top 40 gave back substantial gains to end the day up

just 0.16% at 42913.10, after touching an intraday high of 43.604.30. Signs of weakness in the euro zone economy weighed on markets in

the afternoon session resulting in the strong pullback. Mining stocks had a good session with gold stocks outperforming. Harmony

(+7.58%), Anglogold (+5.31%) and Goldfields (+4.49%) rose sharply on the back of a firmer gold price. Aspen Pharmacare touched a record

high of35499 after announcing that GlaxosmithKline will take a stake in its Japanese subsidiary. Aspen ended the day up 1.2%at 34660.

The value traded at the close was R16.5billion with the rand trading at 11.06 vs. the US Dollar.

UK/Europe

European stocks retraced morning gains to end the day mostly lower after German exports fell and a group of leading economic institutes

joined the IMF in downgrading forecasts for German growth. In the UK, mining stocks were strong, with Randgold Resources and Fresnillo

gaining more than 6%, while Vodafone fell 3.4% after a broker downgrade. In Germany, Suedzucker, Europe’s largest sugar producer, fell

11.50% after reporting a decline in second quarter profits. The FTSE100 ended the day down 0.78%, the CAC40 lost 0.64% and the DAX

inched up 0.11%.

USA

US stocks fell sharply last night with the S&P500 posting its largest percentage decline in six months as global economic concerns weighed

on the market. Energy stocks were the worst hit, with the index falling 3.7% as US crude oil prices settled at their lowest level since

December 2012. Alcoa (-4.23%) kicked off the earnings season by reporting better than expected results, but did close lower on the day,

while apparel retailer GAP fell 12.49% after reporting disappointing September sales figures and the appointment of a new CEO.

Asia

Asian markets are weaker this morning, following international markets lower. In Japan, exporters were under pressure as the dollar fell to

a three week low against the yen but Fast Retailing bucked the trend gaining 2.17% after reporting that they expect operating profit to grow

by more than a third in the year ahead. In Hong Kong, Cnooc Ltd, China’s largest offshore energy explorer fell 3.9% as oil futures continued

to fall. In Australia mining stocks fared the worst with Fortescue metals Group falling 3.9% and iron ore miners BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto

both down over 2%.

Developed Markets Last price

%Δ

-1d

%Δ

MTD

%Δ

YTD

Dow Jones 16 659.25 -1.97 -2.25 0.50

Nasdaq 4 378.34 -2.02 -2.56 4.83

S&P 500 1 928.21 -2.07 -2.23 4.32

DJ Eurostoxx 50 3 042.45 -0.36 -5.69 -2.14

DAX 9 005.02 0.11 -4.95 -5.73

CAC 4 141.45 -0.64 -6.22 -3.60

FTSE 6 431.85 -0.78 -2.88 -4.70

ASX200 5 201.50 -1.80 -1.73 -2.82

Nikkei 225 15 229.68 -1.61 -5.84 -6.52

MSCI World 1 652.93 -1.23 -2.68 -0.49

Emerging Markets Last price

%Δ

-1d

%Δ

MTD

%Δ

YTD

Hang Seng 23 147.81 -1.64 0.94 -0.68

Shanghai 2 375.28 -0.59 0.48 12.25

Brazil Bovespa 57 267.53 0.37 5.82 11.18

India - NSE 26 401.23 -0.89 -0.86 24.71

Russia Micex 1 384.33 0.00 -1.90 -7.96

MSCI Emerging 1 008.33 0.96 0.30 0.56

SA Indices Last price

%Δ

-1d

%Δ

MTD

%Δ

YTD

JSE All Share 48 133.52 0.21 -2.44 4.06

Top 40 42 913.11 0.16 -2.82 3.45

Resi 10 50 006.15 0.64 -4.85 -1.96

Indi 25 57 430.73 -0.03 -1.61 5.41

Fini 15 13 864.55 0.31 -2.81 8.78


Month

trend

Month

trend

Month

trend


Equity derivatives back to top

Equity derivatives | +2711 535 4030

In yet another extremely volatile intra-day trading session, index markets continued to trade flat to small bid fair value discounts.

EFP markets were quiet as participants were kept guessing by the swings in the market. Volume on the day of 46 000 Dec14 ALSI futures

contracts is larger than usual and is attributable to the massive range on the day and the volatile swings in direction and leaves open

interest in the same contract, higher still at 163 000 contracts.

We continued to see the majority of option prints being end user particularly on SSF. On singles, stand out trades being written DEC14 DSY

strangles at 26/25.25, DEC14 MND ratio short fence at around 27.5 and MAR15 NED 90% outright Put at 25.5. The interbank markets had

limited activity with mainly previous day refreshes. The market makers generally looking to purchase ATM protection as well as looking to

buy further dated 95% strike puts to sell upside.

Nota ble Option tra de s

Sa fe x

Vola tility Contra c ts

Va lue of

Pre mium

R 0 0 0 's Ope n inte re st

DEC16 ALSI 38000P 22.91 1 300 30 377 1 300

DEC14 ALSI 45000C 15.63 2 000 12 301 4 100

DEC14 ANGS 129.75C 37.00 6 669 5 925 3 930

DEC14 MNDS 179.12C 25.50 5 740 3 333 2 870

DEC14 DSYS 95.73C 25.00 12 394 3 152 6 197

DEC14 MNDS 173.45C 25.50 2 870 2 454 2 870

Source : SAFEX

Inde x tra de s Contra c ts

Va lue

R 0 0 0 's Ope n Inte re st

DEC14 ALSI 40 316 17 580 004 162 632

DEC14 DTOP 4 963 482 492 149 972

MAR15 ALSI 75 32 942 6 316

JUN15 ALSI - - 10 262

SEP15 ALSI - - 26

Source: SAFEX

Single stoc k Future s

Tra de s Spot Contra c ts

Va lue

R 0 0 0 's Ope n Inte re st

DEC14 NPNQ 1 237.00 1 779 225 502 15 374

DEC14 SHFQ 54.25 10 371 55 333 79 539

DEC14 MTNQ 239.30 980 23 888 23 541

DEC14 SBKQ 128.94 1 267 16 338 48 453

DEC14 DSYQ 90.50 1 474 13 586 5 433

DEC14 CFRQ 90.46 939 8 640 18 935

DEC14 BVTQ 283.40 232 6 429 1 501

DEC14 TRUQ 72.52 800 5 864 20 417

DEC14 SOLQ 572.10 88 5 205 4 382

DEC14 BILQ 297.09 117 3 580 6 614

DEC14 KIOQ 268.50 121 3 319 10 594

DEC14 SHPQ 138.00 229 3 210 34 425

Source : SAFEX

Nota ble Ope n Inte re st - Inde x

Expiry S trike Ope n Inte re st

DEC14 DTOP 8030P 39 196

DEC14 DTOP 9260P 38 672

DEC14 DTOP 10850C 35 860

DEC14 DTOP 9040P 35 860

DEC14 DTOP 8300P 24 555

DEC14 DTOP 9500P 21 018

Source : SAFEX

Expiry Inde x Spot Ba sis BID Ba sis Offe r

DEC 14 ALSI 43 510 387 436

DEC 14 FINI 14 029 126 142

DEC 14 INDI 58 149 461 526

DEC 14 RESI 50 831 574 631

DEC 14 FINDI 61 603 496 566

DEC 14 DTOP 9 713 84 95

DEC 14 CTOP 23 110 203 231 Source : Nedbank Prime Services

Source : Nedbank Capital Equity Derivat ives

Contra c t StrikeP% of

SpotCa ll/Put Bid % pre m Bid Vola tility

Offe r

Vola tilityOffe r % pre m

DEC14 ALSI 38 600 90% P 0.14% 16.06% 20.56% 0.41%

DEC14 ALSI 40 750 95% P 0.50% 13.87% 18.37% 1.02%

DEC14 ALSI 42 900 100% P 1.65% 11.85% 16.35% 2.42%

DEC14 ALSI 42 900 100% C 2.54% 11.85% 16.35% 3.31%

DEC14 ALSI 45 050 105% C 0.43% 9.90% 14.40% 1.03%

DEC14 ALSI 47 200 110% C 0.03% 9.72% 14.22% 0.24%

Source : Nedbank Capital Equity Derivat ives

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

2014/10/01 2014/10/02 2014/10/03 2014/10/06 2014/10/07 2014/10/08 2014/10/09

DEC14 ALSI

Volume P% Change

144000

146000

148000

150000

152000

154000

156000

158000

160000

162000

164000

5900

5950

6000

6050

6100

6150

6200

6250

6300

6350

2014/10/01 2014/10/02 2014/10/03 2014/10/06 2014/10/07 2014/10/08 2014/10/09

Open Interest

MAR 15 Open interest DEC 14 Open interest

Source: Bloomberg (All graphs)

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

18.00

20.00

22.00

24.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

18.00

20.00

22.00

24.00

2014/09/05 2014/09/12 2014/09/19 2014/09/26 2014/10/03

Sav i v s. Vix

VIX (Left Hand Side of the Graph) SAVI (Right Hand Side of the Graph)


Economics back to top


US

US initial jobless claims moderated to 287 000 last week, from 288 000 the previous week, beating expectations for an increase of 295 000.

The 4-week average fell to an 8-year low of 287 750 from 295 000 in the previous week.

The pace of dismissals has slowed, as employers retain staff as demand improves. Payrolls have also been rising resulting in fewer people

seeking jobless benefits. The labour market is expected to continue improving as economic growth rises and consumer demand recovers.

Wholesale trade sales declined by 0.7% m/m in August, from 0.4% growth in July, worse than expectations of 0.3%. Inventories rose by 0.7%

m/m from 0.35 in July, beating expectations of 0.3%.

Inventories were led by stockpiles of durable goods, imported automobile specifically, as well as furniture and electrical equipment.

Petroleum stockpiles also rose in August, buoying total inventories. Inventories rose by the most in 7 months as sales slowed.

Synopsis: Despite increased debate for a rate hike in the US, the Fed will likely hold out until 2015/Q2 because the labour market is still on a

recovering path, while much slack is yet to be absorbed. Growth indicators are expected to improve and the Fed’s QE programme will likely

end during the course of this month.

UK

The BOE left its interest rate unchanged at 0.5% at the policy meeting yesterday, in line with expectations. The asset purchase target was

also left unchanged at £375 billion, in line with the market.

The BOE cited slowing Eurozone growth as a headwind to UK economic activity, despite the IMF maintaining that the UK will likely grow at

the fastest rate compared to the G7. Slow wage growth has also been a concern, along with limited inflationary pressures and lower

demand from the Eurozone, which have all prevented the BOE from raising rates thus far.

The momentum in the housing market has slowed, but growth still remains upbeat despite slowing marginally in the third quarter.

Synopsis: Similar to the Fed, there has been rising debate for an early rate hike by the BOE, which could likely materialise in 2015/Q1, as

growth rises and the labour market recovery persists. The improving economy could likely strengthen the debate for a rate hike sooner than

anticipated by the market; however the risk of adverse shocks to the economy will likely be too material for an earlier rate hike.



JSE performance back to top

Craig Antonie | [email protected] | +27 11 294 3221

Top40 constituents Last price

%Δ

-1d

%Δ

MTD

%Δ

YTD

AGL : Anglo American Plc 241.83 0.92 -4.20 5.60

AMS : Anglo American Platinum Ltd 371.00 -1.59 1.34 -5.82

ANG : Anglogold Ashanti Ltd 127.85 5.31 -7.68 4.01

APN : Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Lt 346.60 1.91 3.58 29.70

ASR : Assore Ltd 215.09 -1.23 0.04 -36.85

BGA : Barclays Africa Group Ltd 157.00 0.64 1.86 18.71

BIL : Bhp Billiton Plc 297.09 0.24 -5.02 -8.27

BTI : British American Tobacco Plc 622.52 0.08 -2.33 11.14

BVT : Bidvest Group Ltd 283.40 1.73 -0.84 5.61

CCO : Capital & Counties Propertie 58.50 -0.32 -2.66 3.54

CFR : Financiere Richemont-Dep Rec 90.46 0.08 -1.89 -13.50

DSY : Discovery Ltd 90.50 -1.74 -7.96 7.10

EXX : Exxaro Resources Ltd 126.56 -0.70 -1.37 -13.59

FSR : Firstrand Ltd 41.44 0.10 -3.67 15.46

GRT : Grow thpoint Properties Ltd 24.06 0.04 -2.35 -0.91

IMP : Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd 88.75 1.87 2.01 -27.85

INL : Investec Ltd 93.50 0.15 -1.46 25.50

INP : Investec Plc 92.69 -0.06 -2.49 22.65

IPL : Imperial Holdings Ltd 174.09 3.62 0.08 -14.08

ITU : Intu Properties Plc 56.69 0.16 -4.06 14.66

KIO : Kumba Iron Ore Ltd 268.50 1.90 0.74 -39.45

LHC : Life Healthcare Group Holdin 44.00 -1.52 -1.21 7.90

MDC : Mediclinic International Ltd 90.38 0.93 -1.75 18.92

MND : Mondi Ltd 170.00 -1.73 -8.15 -5.40

MNP : Mondi Plc 170.75 -1.27 -7.82 -5.76

MPC : Mr Price Group Ltd 206.00 0.83 -2.98 25.81

MTN : Mtn Group Ltd 239.30 0.23 0.41 10.27

NED : Nedbank Group Ltd 215.88 1.35 -1.37 2.80

NPN : Naspers Ltd-N Shs 1 237.00 -1.20 -0.64 12.86

OML : Old Mutual Plc 31.40 -0.79 -5.02 -4.24

REI : Reinet Investments Sa-Dr 24.55 -0.41 -2.54 21.59

REM : Remgro Ltd 230.60 -0.95 1.13 10.96

RMH : Rmb Holdings Ltd 55.06 0.55 -2.89 13.88

SAB : Sabmiller Plc 591.10 -0.61 -5.74 10.95

SBK : Standard Bank Group Ltd 128.94 1.73 -1.31 -0.37

SHF : Steinhoff Intl Holdings Ltd 54.25 0.93 0.31 21.37

SHP : Shoprite Holdings Ltd 138.00 0.44 -1.41 -15.85

SLM : Sanlam Ltd 63.30 0.57 -3.06 18.90

SOL : Sasol Ltd 572.10 -0.01 -6.73 11.20

TBS : Tiger Brands Ltd 315.00 -0.11 -0.14 18.01

VOD : Vodacom Group Ltd 128.05 1.35 -1.50 -3.72

WHL : Woolw orths Holdings Ltd 71.20 1.70 1.85 0.17


Month

trend



Results diary back to top

Research | [email protected] | +27 11 294 3178

Report Report Latest FY0 (ZAc) FY+1 FY+2 Nedbank Capital

date Code type FYE EPS DPS EPS DPS EPS DPS Rec FV TR

13-Oct-14 PSG I N Feb 12 315 73

C 0 0 476 111 442 125

14-Oct-14 DAW F N Jun 11 16 0

C 43 0 57 16 89 20

15-Oct-14 DTC I N Feb 12 311 131

C 321 95 339 153 312 173

Source: ShareData, Nedbank Capital

Forecasts in ZAcps, F = Final, I = Interim, Q = Quarterly, N = Nedbank Capital, C = I-Net Consensus, TP = 12-month forward target price, TR = Total 12-month target return, Blank spaces

mean no coverage by Nedbank Capital, Shading coverage by Nedbank Capital

While we make every effort to provide accurate reporting dates for company results, we ask readers to be aware that these dates are sometimes changed without warning & without

notice to ourselves

Last day to trade back to top

Susan Correia | [email protected] | +27 11 295 8227

Share code Share name Dividend / interest rate

10 October AVI AVI Ltd dividend @ 180cps

BCK Blackstar Group SE dividend @ 9cps

COM Comair Limited dividend @ 13cps

IAPN Investec Australia Prop Fd NPL take up @ 1070cps

PPR Putprop Ltd dividend @ 18cps

RCL RCL Foods Limited dividend @ 20cps

WBO Wilson Bayly Hlm-Ovc Ltd dividend @ 233cps

Source: JSE




Economic calendar back to top


Time Country Event Survey Actual Prior Revised

09-Oct

11:30 SA Mining Production YoY Aug -5.60% -3.10% -7.70% 1.60%

11:30 SA Gold Production YoY Aug -- -8.00% -14.60% -14.50%

11:30 SA Platinum Production YoY Aug -- -45.00% -45.20% -44.90%

13:00 UK Bank of England Bank Rate 09-Oct 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% --

13:00 UK BOE Asset Purchase Target Oct 375B 375B 375B --

13:00 SA Manufacturing Prod NSA YoY Aug -3.90% -1.20% -7.90% -8.10%

14:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 04-Oct 295K 287K 287K 288K

14:30 US Continuing Claims 27-Sep 2410K 2381K 2398K 2402K

15:45 US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 05-Oct -- 36.8 34.8 --

16:00 US Wholesale Inventories MoM Aug 0.30% 0.70% 0.10% 0.30%

16:00 US Wholesale Trade Sales MoM Aug 0.30% -0.70% 0.70% 0.40%

10-Oct

07:00 JN Consumer Confidence Index Sep 42 39.9 41.2 --

10:30 UK Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mn Aug -£9600 -- -£10186 --

10:30 UK Trade Balance Non EU GBP/Mn Aug -£4000 -- -£4345 --

10:30 UK Trade Balance Aug -£3000 -- -£3348 --

15-Oct CH Foreign Reserves Sep -- -- $3990.0B $3993.2B

15-Oct CH New Yuan Loans Sep 750.0B -- 702.5B --

15-Oct CH Aggregate Financing RMB Sep 1225.0B -- 957.4B --

15-Oct CH Money Supply M2 YoY Sep 13.00% -- 12.80% --

Source: Bloomberg



Contacts

Strategic Research

Mohammed Yaseen Nalla , CFA

Head: Strategic Research

Tel +27 11 294 5430

[email protected]

Reezwana Sumad

Treasury: Economic Analyst

Tel +27 11 294 1753

[email protected]

Equities – Institutional Cash Equities and Prime Broking

Craig Antonie

Cash Equities: Sales and Execution

Tel +27 11 294 3221

[email protected]

Susan Correia


Tel +27 11 294 8227

[email protected]

Marc Baulackey


Tel +27 11 535 4030

[email protected]

Gciza Nkosi

Equity Derivatives: Sales and Execution

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FX Corporate Desk

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Tel +27 11 294 4511

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Fixed Income – Sales and Structuring

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Institutional Flow Sales

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Institutional Sales and Structuring

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[email protected]

Money Markets

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MM: Business Banking

Tel +27 11 535 4006

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Tel +27 11 535 4008 (JHB)









Note on market data

Market prices as per either last market close, or if open, at the time of capturing this data. % change is calculated using this price on the prior day's close. The time of capturing the data is around 07:00 SA time on the day on which the note is released. Blank spaces are as a result of unavailable data from Bloomberg, and most typically due to a market being closed for a particular day. % changes greater than or equal to 1% are coloured green while % changes less than or equal to 1% are coloured red.

Source: Bloomberg, Safex, as well as other sources stated, while calculations of periodic % changes are by Nedbank Capital.

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Daily market commentary 10102014

Business

Transcript of Daily market commentary 10102014