Daily market commentary 11112014

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  • 1. DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY11 November 2014 | 7:33 AMDaily Market Commentary | 11 November 2014 Page 1 of 13For any queries, please contact:Mohammed Yaseen Nalla, CFA | [email protected] Sumad | [email protected] of the day| Currencies | Precious metals and oil | Fixed income & interest rates | Equities | Equity derivatives| Economics|*Foreign flows | JSE performance |*Results diary | LDT | Economic calendar| Other reports#ContactsClick on any of the above links to access your point of interest(* when available) Key daily driverNedbank Capital Strategic Research | [email protected] | +27 11 295 5430SNIPPETS(Charts of the day)Currency wars prompt yen weaker against most major export currencies, seeking market share(Currencies)Top 40 rises by 0.77%, led by widespread gains; US equities upbeat along with Asian markets this morning(Equities)Rand weakens overnight as dollar remains supported; global majors consequently downbeat(Economics)Japanese trade deficit narrows and current account surplus widens, however remains downbeat compared to a year ago(Foreign flows)Foreign flows remain downbeat as local headwinds persistKey overnight factors and upcoming eventsNedbank Capital Strategic Research | [email protected] | +27 11 295 5430Economic calendarDateRegionEvent Actual/expected/priorImplications10/11CHCPI y/y1.6%/1.6%/1.6%CPI remains unchanged as low energy prices cap upside10/11EZInvestor confidence-11.9/-13.8/-13.7Confidence moderates but remains in negative territory as fragile recovery persists11/11JNTrade balance Bln-714.5/-782.5/-831.5Trade deficit narrows as exports tick higher 11/11 SA Manuf. Production y/y --/5.6%/-1.2% Production likely to rise as US demand increases, local production likely to gradually recover from earlier strikeSource: NedbankOther reports produced back to topNedbank Capital Strategic Research | [email protected] | +27 11 295 5430To request reports published by Nedbank Capital in full (t & cs apply), please contact us (details above) Weekly Investment Update

2. Daily Market Commentary | 11 November 2014 Page 2 of 13Charts of the day back to topNedbank Capital Strategic Research | [email protected] | +27 11 295 5430 The recent stimulus announcement by the BOJ saw the yen weaken significantly against all of its major trading partners, as the central bankattempts to attract spur consumer spending and impact inflation in the country. Over the past year, the yen has depreciated by more than11% on a trade weighted basis; over the past 2 years, by almost 28%. In a world of currency wars, the battle between EMs, commodityexporters and exporters of other manufactures have increased significantly in order to compete for the global market share. The recent bout of euro weakness was a result of 2 factors monetary easing by the ECB, and a stronger dollar as a result of impendingtightening by the Fed. Consequently, the EURJPY cross has seen the yen weaken significantly against the euro, despite the euro also comingunder pressure as a result of the ECBs own stimulus measures. The yen weakened by a greater proportion against the USD than against theEUR as a result of the upbeat dollar. Recently, the EURJPY cross broke above the declining channel to test the horizontal yen support level at143.80/. The cross is expected to continue on the weakening trend after the current pause, targeting the 2013 peak at 145.73.Resistance will likely be held at the channel upper level at 140/. Against the rand, the weak yen move has also been quite significant as a result of the resilient USDZAR since October 2014. A symmetricalwedge had been formed since the start of the year on the ZARJPY cross, and the recent monetary easing by the BOJ saw the yen breakabove this wedge, projecting towards the 11.21/ZAR level over the medium term. The vertical blue lines in the chart below indicate theprojection higher, equal to that of the height of the wedge. The horizontal yen support level at 10.34 would likely provide some interimrelief to further yen weakness. Our base case remains for yen weakness overshadowing any rand weakness. This curtails SAs ability tocapitalise on any local currency weakness, because SA exporters are competing with much more (price) competitive Japanese (and global)exporters. However, SA imports from Japan will be comparatively cheaper but as a net exporter to Japan, this benefit will be muted. Against other key commodity producers and manufacturing exporters, concentrated within Asia, the Yen remains the currency of choicewhen it comes to price competitiveness the yen has weakened by 15.74% over the past year against the USD, while the Australian dollarand the euro has lost 9% and 7.7% against the US dollar respectively. Any further yen weakness could likely squander the relativeattractiveness of European and other Asian exports, and could likely make some headway with regards to the BOJs objectives.ZARJPY projects above 11/ZARSource: Bloomberg, NedbankCurrency wars and the battle for market share sends exporterscurrencies weaker; China and India relatively stableSource: Bloomberg, NedbankYen prompted weaker against euro as BOJ stimulatesSource: Bloomberg, Nedbank 3. Daily Market Commentary | 11 November 2014 Page 3 of 13Currencies back to topBusiness Banking FX | +27 11 535 4003 | Corporate FX | +2711 535 4002 | Institutional FX | +2711 535 4005 The new week got under way with the rand having recovered from the worst levels of last week, but overall it appeared to remainvulnerable. Little real trading activity on the day with a brief foray to the downside, which did attract some dollar buying interest beforeclimbing into the local close to finish the day at 11.2370. This morning it is slightly weaker, currently trading at 11.2775 On the international front, the session was also relatively subdued; the EURUSD had a brief foray above 1.2500, but thereafter a steadydecline, which has continued into this mornings session currently trading at 1.2416. Gold has resumed its downward trajectory, after some resilience it is currently trading at 1147.50, after trading at 1164.00 at the time ofthe local close last night. On the data front today, locally we have manufacturing production, the rest of the world nothing of note and withthe U.S. on holiday today, a strong likelihood of another subdued session on the day. The current state of the global economy and the continued monetary stimulus from various central banks would most likely see someemerging markets benefitting from the carry trade, although the current state of the local economy would most likely preclude the randfrom that scenario. Possible trading range in the rand today 11.2000 to 11.3500*Please note that the sign on the % change reflects the change on the headline number. The narrative indicates the trend direction over the month.For trade in any of these currencies, contact our FX dealing desksMajors Last price%-1d%MTD%YTDUSD trendGBPUSD 1.58 -0.10 -0.96 -4.37 USD strengthEURUSD 1.24 -0.02 -0.81 -9.90 USD strengthUSDJPY 115.24 0.44 2.60 9.48 USD strengthUSDAUD 1.16 0.07 2.05 3.54 USD strengthRand crosses Last price%-1d%MTD%YTDZAR trendUSDZAR 11.28 0.11 2.16 7.19 ZAR weaknessGBPZAR 17.87 0.00 1.18 2.49 ZAR weaknessEURZAR 14.01 0.08 1.34 -3.43 ZAR weaknessAUDZAR 9.72 0.04 0.13 3.53 ZAR weaknessZARJPY 10.22 0.33 0.45 2.20 ZAR strengthAfrican FX Last price%-1d%MTD%YTDZAR trendZARMWK (Malaw ian kw acha) 42.47 -0.09 -1.71 3.90 ZAR weaknessZARBWP (Botsw ana pula) 0.83 0.47 -0.76 -0.64 ZAR weaknessZARKES (Kenyan shilling) 7.97 -0.11 -1.59 -2.90 ZAR weaknessZARMUR (Mauritian rupee) 2.79 -0.09 -1.80 -2.15 ZAR weaknessZARNGN (Nigerian naira) 14.89 -0.16 -0.79 -2.10 ZAR weaknessZARGHS (Ghanian cedi) 0.29 0.21 -2.12 26.42 ZAR weaknessZARZMW (Zambian kw acha) 0.56 -0.09 -0.69 7.02 ZAR weaknessSource: Bloomberg & Nedbank Capital T imeMonthtrendMonthtrendMonthtrend2014/11/11 07:14USDZARSource: Bloomberg, NedbankEUR/USDSource: Bloomberg, Nedbank$/R (close, high and low)R 10.80R 10.90R 11.00R 11.10R 11.20R 11.30R 11.4011/05 11/06 11/07 11/10 11/11USDZAR $/R HIGH $/R LOW/$ (close, high, low)$1.23$1.23$1.24$1.24$1.25$1.25$1.26$1.2611/05 11/06 11/07 11/10 11/11EURUSD EURUSD High EURUSD Low 4. Daily Market Commentary | 11 November 2014 Page 4 of 13Precious metals and oils back to topNedbank Capital Strategic Research | [email protected] | +27 11 295 5430 After a marginal relief rally yesterday premised on the back of upbeat Chinese trade data, the bullion price maintained its downbeat tonethrough the local trading session yesterday, falling by around $10/oz. The stronger dollar did aid the move weaker, however overall demandin the gold market remains deficient, hence our call for a successively lower gold price in the medium term. The downbeat trend is likely topersist as the upbeat dollar limits any interest in the gold market. The Brent crude price also reversed its intraday gains quite sharply ahead of the US markets open. Again, the stronger dollar did little toappease the bearish sentiment. The price fell by almost $1/bbl. from the days peak, with overall expectations for the price to remainbetween $80-$90/bbl over the near and medium term. The supply glut has been keeping the price low, which is a welcome move for mosthouseholds within SA and globally.Commodities Last price%-1d%MTD%YTDBrent near future ($) 82.05 -0.35 -4.44 -25.95Gold spot ($) 1 148.42 -1.09 -2.09 -4.69Platinum spot ($) 1 197.13 -0.74 -3.18 -12.83Source: Bloomberg & Nedbank Capital T imeMonthtrend2014/11/11 07:14Platinum vs GoldSource: BloombergBrent Crude vs West Texas IntermediateSource: BloombergPlatinum vs. Gold$1 100.00$1 120.00$1 140.00$1 160.00$1 180.00$1 200.00$1 220.00$1 240.0011/05 11/06 11/07 11/10 11/11PLATINUM GOLDBrent Crude vs West Texas Intermediate$72.00$74.00$76.00$78.00$80.00$82.00$84.0011/05 11/06 11/07 11/10 11/11BRENT WTI 5. Daily Market Commentary | 11 November 2014 Page 5 of 13Fixed income and interest rates back to topBond flow sales |+2711 535 4021 | Corporate Money Markets | +2711 535 4007 | Business Bank Money Markets | +2711 535 4006Bonds Last price1dMTDYTD% bps bps bpsR158-0.8 yrs 6.34 10.17 8.27R203-2.8 yrs 6.70 0.04 -2.66 -22.16R208-6.4 yrs 7.42 -0.12 -3.62 -23.62R186-12.1 yrs 7.94 0.08 4.48 -29.32R2048-33.3 yrs 8.70 0.25 2.15 -48.75US 10 yr 2.36 -0.06 2.44 -66.86UK 10 yr 2.21 0.14 -1.87 -27.04German 10 yr 0.83 2.08 -0.83 -56.77Japan 10 yr 0.49 7.25 6.55 -34.14Money Market Last price1dMTDYTD% bps bps bpsSA repo rate 5.75 0.00 0.00 75.00SA prime rate 9.25 0.00 0.00 75.00SA CPI (MTD = previous month) 5.90 -50.00SA 3m JIBAR 6.09 0.90 1.70 87.50SA 3m NCD 6.10 0.00 2.50 87.50SA 6m NCD 6.78 1.25 2.50 112.50SA 12m NCD 7.28 -5.00 7.50 126.25US 3m LIBOR 0.23 0.10 0.05 -1.35UK 3m LIBOR 0.56 -0.12 0.38 3.18Japan 3m LIBOR 0.10 0.03 -0.43 -3.45Source: Bloomberg & Nedbank Capital T imeMonthtrendMonthtrend2014/11/11 07:14FRAs and Swaps Last price1dMTDYTD% bps bps bps3X6 FRA 6.31 0.00 3.00 95.006X9 FRA 6.48 1.00 5.00 86.009X12 FRA 6.70 1.00 6.00 70.0018X21 FRA 7.11 0.00 9.00 17.00SA 2yr Sw ap 6.70 -0.45 5.00 58.00SA 3yr Sw ap 6.91 -1.00 4.00 27.50SA 5yr Sw ap 7.24 0.00 1.50 -12.00SA 10yr Sw ap 7.82 -0.50 -0.35 -42.00SA 15yr Sw ap 8.16 -1.50 0.50 -57.25Spreads Last price1dMTDYTD% bps bps bps2v10y - 1.12 0.05 5.35 100.003v10y - 0.91 -0.50 4.35 69.50R186-R203 1.25 0.04 7.14 -7.16R2048-R186 0.76 0.17 -2.33 -19.435y-R186 - 0.70 -0.08 -2.98 17.3210y-R186 - 0.12 -0.58 -4.83 -12.6815y-R186 0.23 -1.58 -3.98 -27.93Source: Bloomberg & Nedbank Capital T imeMonthtrend2014/11/11 07:14Monthtrend 6. Daily Market Commentary | 11 November 2014 Page 6 of 13Equities back to topCash equities | +2711 294 3221South Africa The JSE ended a very choppy session up +0.8% (Top40) with all the sectors contributing. Resources climbed +0.8% boosted by highercommodity prices, financials soared +1.4%, Discovery being the biggest riser and Industrials added +0.65 with strong performance by thehealthcare sector. Vodacom released interim results which disappointed the market and fell -4%. Discovery held a conference call to adviseinvestors of their international business strategy from which it emerged that they would purchase the remaining 25% stake in PrudentialHealth Holdings, Discovery closed the day up +4.3%. The value traded was R16.8 billion and the rand was hovering around 11.23 to the USdollar at the close.UK/Europe European shares ended the day firmer despite renewed tension between Russia and Ukraine in a lacklustre trading day. The FTSE, CAC andDAX rose +0.7%, +0.8% and +0.7% respectively. Eurozone investor confidence came in better than expected and supported the market. InSpain, 80% of Catalans vote for independence but voter turnout was less than 50%. Tesco led the FTSE rising +4%, Aveva rose more than+7% despite reporting a lower profit as they increased their dividend and had a positive outlook.USA Trading in Wall Street was subdued with little economic data to direct the market and the holiday today. The major indexes grinded higherin the morning session and maintained those levels to the close, the Dow and S&P500 closed at record highs. GoPro tanked -4% after theyannounced they need to raise $800m, Dendreon plunged -81% after filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and Dean Foods rose +14% after betterthan expected results. Its Veterans Day Holiday today and the Bond market and most banks will be closed but the exchange will remainopen.Asia Asian markets are trading higher this morning, taking the lead from Wall Street, the MSCI Asian pacific is up +0.5% with 3 companies risingfor every 1 that fell. Renewed tension in Russia/Ukraine has capped the rise in the region. Australian business confidence rose in Octoberwhich has supported the market, the ASX is up +0.7% and BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto are down -1.5% and -1% respectively. In Japan, thecurrent account had a surplus of 963 billion yen but the trade balance showed a deficit of 714 billion yen, the Nikkei is currently up +2%.Developed Markets Last price%-1d%MTD%YTDDow Jones 17 613.74 0.23 1.28 6.26Nasdaq 4 651.62 0.41 0.45 11.37S&P 500 2 038.26 0.31 1.00 10.27DJ Eurostoxx 50 3 094.60 0.97 -0.60 -0.46DAX 9 351.87 0.65 0.27 -2.10CAC 4 222.82 0.79 -0.24 -1.70FTSE 6 611.25 0.67 0.99 -2.04ASX200 5 517.10 -0.12 -0.17 3.08Nikkei 225 17 099.61 1.90 4.18 4.96MSCI World 1 714.60 0.44 0.38 3.22Emerging Markets Last price%-1d%MTD%YTDHang Seng 23 893.96 0.63 -0.43 2.52Shanghai 2 506.45 1.32 3.56 18.45Brazil Bovespa 52 725.38 -0.93 -3.48 2.37India - NSE 27 982.04 0.38 0.42 32.17Russia Micex 1 515.36 1.22 1.81 0.75MSCI Emerging 997.66 1.01 -1.81 -0.50SA Indices Last price%-1d%MTD%YTDJSE All Share 50 484.09 0.81 1.53 9.14Top 40 45 161.14 0.77 1.75 8.87Resi 10 49 497.90 0.77 4.94 -2.96Indi 25 61 145.43 0.59 0.74 12.23Fini 15 15 291.76 1.43 0.74 19.98Source: Bloomberg & Nedbank Capital T imeMonthtrendMonthtrendMonthtrend2014/11/11 07:14 7. Daily Market Commentary | 11 November 2014 Page 7 of 13Equity derivatives back to topEquity derivatives | +2711 535 4030 Index markets were dominated by premiums again today as persistent futures buying led the market higher. EFP markets were skewedtowards the right hand side in response but remained quiet. Volume on the day of 22 000 Dec14 ALSI futures contracts is a touch light andleaves open interest in the same contract virtually unchanged at 165 000 contracts. Most of the options activity in todays Interbank session was centred on Dec14 ALSI Left hand outrights as well as calendars. Interest wasbid on 85/ 90 percent strike downside to hedge potential close out stress scenarios and to roll ATM protection through calendars. The enduser front was fairly inactive with clients looking to purchase Dec14 SSF gamma in retailers as well as longer dated protection in CFR andVOD through collars.Notable Option trade sSa fe xVola tility Contra c tsVa lue ofPremiumR 0 0 0 's Open inte re stMAR15 NPNQ 1380P 33.00 978 9 833 489MAR15 NPNQ 1490C 33.00 978 7 542 489DEC14 ALSI 47300C 15.37 3 000 5 799 1 965MAR15 ALSI 45100P 17.01 330 5 210 165MAR15 NPNS 1380P 33.44 489 4 973 -MAR15 NPNQ 1250P 33.00 978 4 792 489Source : SAFEXInde x trade s Contra c tsVa lueR 0 0 0 's Open Inte re stDEC14 ALSI 30 727 13 927 913 163 654DEC14 DTOP 22 216 2 254 752 171 039MAR15 ALSI 142 64 915 8 213JUN15 ALSI - - 12 590SEP15 ALSI - - 238Source: SAFEXSingle stoc k Future sTrade s Spot Contra c tsVa lueR 0 0 0 's Open Inte re stDEC14 NPNQ 1 406.00 2 310 326 042 13 200DEC14 MTNQ 228.00 4 096 94 029 31 945DEC14 TFGQ 125.63 2 489 31 560 9 466DEC14 CFRQ 96.85 1 531 14 936 16 499DEC14 BILS 300.95 406 12 363 850DEC14 VODQ 127.50 918 11 415 15 845DEC14 BATQ 80.50 1 020 8 220 17 041DEC14 SABQ 633.69 100 6 326 2 375DEC14 TRUQ 68.56 913 6 298 23 628DEC14 SHFQ 54.46 932 5 076 111 176DEC14 SOLQ 550.00 72 3 991 2 657DEC14 ANGQ 106.48 348 3 842 4 939Source : SAFEXNotable Open Inte re st - Inde xExpiry Strike Open Inte re stDEC14 DTOP 8030P 39 196DEC14 DTOP 9260P 38 672DEC14 DTOP 10850C 35 860DEC14 DTOP 9040P 35 860DEC14 DTOP 8300P 24 555DEC14 DTOP 9000P 18 000Source : SAFEXExpiry Inde x Spot Ba sis BID Ba sis Offe rDEC 14 ALSI 45 024 238 277DEC 14 FINI 15 171 79 93DEC 14 INDI 60 836 292 344DEC 14 RESI 49 743 326 368DEC 14 FINDI 64 956 319 376DEC 14 DTOP 10 058 54 62DEC 14 CTOP 23 933 125 147Source : Nedbank Prime ServicesSource : Nedbank Capital Equity Derivat ivesContra c t StrikeP% ofSpotCa ll/Put Bid % prem Bid Vola tilityOffe rVola tilityOffe r % premDEC14 ALSI 40 650 90% P 0.03% 16.06% 20.56% 0.12%DEC14 ALSI 42 900 95% P 0.19% 13.87% 18.37% 0.49%DEC14 ALSI 45 150 100% P 1.18% 11.85% 16.35% 1.75%DEC14 ALSI 45 150 100% C 1.92% 11.85% 16.35% 2.49%DEC14 ALSI 47 400 105% C 0.15% 9.90% 14.40% 0.49%DEC14 ALSI 49 700 110% C 0.00% 9.72% 14.22% 0.05%Source : Nedbank Capital Equity Derivat ives-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%01000020000300004000050000600002014/10/31 2014/11/03 2014/11/04 2014/11/05 2014/11/06 2014/11/07 2014/11/10DEC14 ALSIVolume P% Change16000016100016200016300016400016500016600016700016800016900081008120814081608180820082202014/10/31 2014/11/03 2014/11/04 2014/11/05 2014/11/06 2014/11/07 2014/11/10Open InterestMAR 15 Open interest DEC 14 Open interestSource: Bloomberg (All graphs)10.0012.0014.0016.0018.0020.0022.0024.0010.0012.0014.0016.0018.0020.0022.0024.002014/10/07 2014/10/14 2014/10/21 2014/10/28 2014/11/04Sav i v s. VixVIX (Left Hand Side of the Graph) SAVI (Right Hand Side of the Graph) 8. Daily Market Commentary | 11 November 2014 Page 8 of 13Economics back to topNedbank Capital Strategic Research | [email protected] | +27 11 295 5430Japan Japan's current account widened to 963.0 billion in September from 287.1 previously (expected 537.7 billion) , which is 61.9% largercompared to a year ago. Previously however, current account surpluses reached 10 trillion every year, however a deteriorating tradebalance has resulted in smaller current account surpluses recently. Income from foreign stocks and bonds rose by 24.5% y/y as a result ofthe weak yen. The trade deficit narrowed marginally to 714.5 billion in September from 831.8 billion previously, better than expectations of 782.5billion. The wide trade deficit is mainly as a result of the weak yen pushing up the value of imports. Imports rose by 6.7% y/y in September, whileexports rose by 5.5%.Synopsis: Business investment, spending and inflation has slowed in the economy, mainly on the back of the sales tax hike earlier in theyear. The BOJ has further impetus to stimulate in order to spur inflation and spending in the economy. Monetary policy is expected toremain accommodative in order to aid a fragile recovery.Economic calendar back to topNedbank Capital Strategic Research | [email protected] | +27 11 295 5430Time Country Event Survey Actual Prior Revised10-Nov08-Nov CH Trade Balance Oct $42.00B $45.4B $30.94B $30.96B08-Nov CH Exports YoY Oct 10.60% 11.60% 15.30% --08-Nov CH Imports YoY Oct 5.00% 4.60% 7.00% --03:30 CH PPI YoY Oct -2.00% -2.20% -1.80% --03:30 CH CPI YoY Oct 1.60% 1.60% 1.60% --11:30 EC Sentix Investor Confidence Nov -12.5 -11.90 -13.7 --15-Nov CH New Yuan Loans Oct 626.4B -- 857.2B --15-Nov CH Aggregate Financing RMB Oct 887.5B -- 1050.0B 1052.2B15-Nov CH Money Supply M0 YoY Oct 4.20% -- 4.20% --15-Nov CH Money Supply M1 YoY Oct 5.00% -- 4.80% --15-Nov CH Money Supply M2 YoY Oct 12.90% -- 12.90% --11-Nov01:50 JN BoP Current Account Balance Sep 536.1B 963.0B 287.1B --07:00 JN Consumer Confidence Index Oct 40.5 38.9 39.9 --13:00 SA Manufacturing Prod NSA YoY Sep 6.60% -- -1.20% --14:30 US NFIB Small Business Optimism Oct 95 -- 95.3 --Source: Bloomberg 9. Daily Market Commentary | 11 November 2014 Page 9 of 13Foreign flows back to topNedbank Capital Strategic Research | [email protected] | +27 11 295 5430 SA markets took a knock from foreigners last week, with a net outflow of R3.2 billion, of which the equity market was responsible for R2.6billion and the bond market, R0.6 billion. Over the last few weeks, flows have been highly volatile, on the back of global central bankssentiment, as well as local headwinds. The Moodys sovereign credit rating on Thursday last week, despite being imminent, caused a bit ofshock in the local market and lent a hand at deteriorating foreign sentiment further, with large outflows on Friday. Though still early, the month of November saw outflows of the same magnitude as that of the weekly print. This took the year to dateperformance to R32.2 billion. Led by equities with R30 billion, and bonds with 2.1 billion. Any further shocks to sentiment may well bode negatively for foreign sentiment towards SA, despite the yield advantage that SA and EMassets as a whole carry. Foreign flows are likely to remain volatile over the last few weeks of the year, unless material positivedevelopments occur. Stimulus from the ECB and Asia could likely trickle down into SA, and this could support local markets in the mediumterm.SA equities and bonds Week of 03 to 07 November 2014 Month to 07 November 2014 Year to 07 November 2014Foreign flows into SA equity market -R 2.640bn -R 2.640bn R 30.136bnForeign flows into SA bond market -R 0.591bn -R 0.591bn R 2.103bnTotal foreign flows -R 3.230bn -R 3.230bn R 32.239bnSource : BloombergForeign equity flows downbeat after marginal prev. week gainSource: Bloomberg, NedbankBond flows patchy, but lessSource: Bloomberg, NedbankNet Foreign Flows: Equities (R'000) (LHS) vs. ALSI daily % change (RHS)-R 2 000 000-R 1 500 000-R 1 000 000-R 500 000R 0R 500 00011/03 11/04 11/05 11/06 11/07Equities JALSH INDEXNet Foreign Flows: Bonds (R'000)-R 1 500 000-R 1 000 000-R 500 000R 0R 500 000R 1 000 000R 1 500 00011/03 11/04 11/05 11/06 11/07 10. Daily Market Commentary | 11 November 2014 Page 10 of 13JSE performance back to topCraig Antonie | [email protected] | +27 11 294 3221Top40 constituents Last price%-1d%MTD%YTDAGL : Anglo American Plc 244.26 0.14 5.36 6.66AMS : Anglo American Platinum Ltd 382.00 4.04 9.78 -3.02ANG : Anglogold Ashanti Ltd 106.48 1.14 13.88 -13.37APN : Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Lt 393.00 1.03 -0.11 46.25ASR : Assore Ltd 219.87 1.28 7.42 -35.45BGA : Barclays Af rica Group Ltd 173.10 2.43 -0.61 30.89BIL : Bhp Billiton Plc 300.95 0.75 6.28 -7.08BTI : British American Tobacco Plc 644.23 1.21 3.09 15.01BVT : Bidvest Group Ltd 300.50 0.49 -0.95 11.98CCO : Capital & Counties Propertie 60.98 -0.39 1.30 7.93CFR : Financiere Richemont-Dep Rec 96.85 -1.21 4.51 -7.39DSY : Discovery Ltd 104.50 4.32 4.16 23.67EXX : Exxaro Resources Ltd 118.65 1.07 3.17 -18.99FSR : Firstrand Ltd 47.20 1.72 0.00 31.51GRT : Grow thpoint Properties Ltd 26.18 -0.23 -2.13 7.83IMP : Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd 83.16 1.97 3.57 -32.39INL : Investec Ltd 103.62 1.43 2.90 39.09INP : Investec Plc 103.17 1.30 3.19 36.52IPL : Imperial Holdings Ltd 186.50 1.63 -1.82 -7.95ITU : Intu Properties Plc 61.81 1.33 2.40 25.02KIO : Kumba Iron Ore Ltd 276.42 -1.70 0.35 -37.67LHC : Life Healthcare Group Holdin 44.00 4.02 5.52 5.11MDC : Mediclinic International Ltd 99.63 4.35 1.15 31.09MND : Mondi Ltd 191.00 0.87 3.57 6.29MNP : Mondi Plc 190.99 0.74 2.64 5.41MPC : Mr Price Group Ltd 230.48 1.49 1.02 40.76MTN : Mtn Group Ltd 228.00 0.76 -6.56 5.06NED : Nedbank Group Ltd 235.00 1.21 -2.18 11.90NPN : Naspers Ltd-N Shs 1 406.00 1.24 2.43 28.28OML : Old Mutual Plc 34.89 1.66 1.96 6.40REI : Reinet Investments Sa-Dr 26.40 0.65 6.24 30.76REM : Remgro Ltd 255.80 0.39 1.11 23.09RMH : Rmb Holdings Ltd 60.95 2.27 -0.42 26.06SAB : Sabmiller Plc 633.69 1.27 2.02 18.95SBK : Standard Bank Group Ltd 134.01 0.76 -3.42 3.55SHF : Steinhof f Intl Holdings Ltd 54.46 -1.18 -3.44 21.84SHP : Shoprite Holdings Ltd 164.29 1.57 2.82 0.18SLM : Sanlam Ltd 71.98 1.44 3.35 35.20SOL : Sasol Ltd 550.00 0.86 0.15 6.90TBS : Tiger Brands Ltd 345.00 -1.70 4.04 29.25VOD : Vodacom Group Ltd 127.50 -4.21 -4.73 -4.14WHL : Woolw orths Holdings Ltd 78.39 1.70 0.00 10.29Source: Bloomberg & Nedbank Capital T imeMonthtrend2014/11/11 07:14 11. Daily Market Commentary | 11 November 2014 Page 11 of 13Results diary back to topResearch | [email protected] | +27 11 294 3178Report ReportLatest FY0 (ZAc) FY+1 FY+2 Nedbank Capitaldate Code typeFYE EPS DPS EPS DPS EPS DPS Rec FV TR10-Nov-14 LEW I N Mar 12 873 442C 873 442 993 514 912 51711-Nov-14 ABL F N Sep 12 343 195C 343 195 45 30 -199 113-Nov-14 ACP I N Mar 13 307 307 324 324 344 344 Sell 4263-14.5C 482 307 328 324 349 346Source: ShareData, Nedbank CapitalForecasts in ZAcps, F = Final, I = Interim, Q = Quarterly, N = Nedbank Capital, C = I-Net Consensus, TP = 12-month forward target price, TR = Total 12-month target return, Blank spacesmean no coverage by Nedbank Capital, Shading coverage by Nedbank CapitalWhile we make every effort to provide accurate reporting dates for company results, we ask readers to be aware that these dates are sometimes changed without warning & withoutnotice to ourselvesLast day to trade back to topSusan Correia | [email protected] | +27 11 295 8227Share code Share name Dividend / interest rate14 Nov 2014CSG CSG Holdings Ltd dividend @ 4cpsLNFLondon Fin Inv groupPlc dividend @ 8.237210cpsPET Petmin Ltd dividend @ 3cpsRPLRedefine InternationalPlcdividend: Non-PID 9.65034cps and/or PID element 20.73036cps or 3.01471 for every 100 sharesheld.SPA Spanjaard Ltd dividend @ 10cpsSource: JSE 12. Daily Market Commentary | 11 November 2014 Page 12 of 13ContactsStrategic ResearchMohammed Yaseen Nalla , CFAHead: Strategic ResearchTel +27 11 294 [email protected] SumadTreasury: Economic AnalystTel +27 11 294 [email protected] Institutional Cash Equities and Prime BrokingCraig AntonieCash Equities: Sales and ExecutionTel +27 11 294 [email protected] CorreiaCash Equities: Sales and ExecutionTel +27 11 294 [email protected] BaulackeyCash Equities: Sales and ExecutionTel +27 11 535 [email protected] NkosiEquity Derivatives: Sales and ExecutionTel +27 11 535 [email protected] Sales Corporate and Business BankingFX Corporate DeskTel +27 11 535 4002 (JHB)Tel +27 31 327 3000 (DBN)Tel +27 21 413 9300 (CPT)FX Business Banking DeskTel +27 11 535 4003Ross MeredithHead: FX SalesTel +27 11 294 [email protected] Income Sales and StructuringGareth RobertsonInstitutional Flow SalesTel +27 11 535 [email protected] PillayInstitutional Sales and StructuringTel +27 11 294 [email protected] MarketsMM: Corporate DeskTel +27 11 535 4007 (JHB)Tel +27 31 327 3000 (DBN)Tel +27 21 413 9300 (CPT)MM: Business BankingTel +27 11 535 4006MM: Trading and institutionalTel +27 11 535 4008 (JHB) 13. Daily Market Commentary | 11 November 2014 Page 13 of 13Note on market data Market prices as per either last market close, or if open, at the time of capturing this data. % change is calculated using this price on the prior day's close. The time of capturing the data is around 07:00 SA time on the day on which the note is released. Blank spaces are as a result of unavailable data from Bloomberg, and most typically due to a market being closed for a particular day. % changes greater than or equal to 1% are coloured green while % changes less than or equal to 1% are coloured red.Source: Bloomberg, Safex, as well as other sources stated, while calculations of periodic % changes are by Nedbank Capital.DisclaimerThis e-mail and any attachments are confidential and intended solely for the addressee and may also be privileged or exempt from disclosure under applicable law. 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