D1-07 CARLSON Automotive Connectivity v3€¦ · •Connected Cars represent a new “user” or...

© 2017 Ethernet Alliancewww.ethernetalliance.org

November1,2017

AUTOMOTIVECONNECTIVITY:IMPACTONTHEGLOBALNETWORKOFTOMORROW

SteveCarlson,HighSpeedDesign,Inc.JohnD’Ambrosia,Futurewei

© 2017 Ethernet Alliance

www.ethernetalliance.org

RegardingtheViewsExpressed

Steve’sIndustryInvolvement– Consultant,HighSpeedDesign,Inc.– ConsultingMember,EthernetAlliance– Chair,IEEEP802.3chMulti-GigabitAutomotiveEthernetPHYTaskForce– ExecutiveSecretary,IEEE802.3WorkingGroup

TheviewsIamexpressingonIEEEstandardsandrelatedproductsshouldNOTbeconsideredtheposition,explanation,orinterpretationoftheEthernetAlliance.

PerIEEE-SAStandardsBoardBylaws,Dec2016“Atlectures,symposia,seminars,oreducationalcourses,anindividualpresentinginformationonIEEEstandardsshallmakeitclearthathisorherviewsshouldbeconsideredthepersonalviewsofthatindividualratherthantheformalpositionofIEEE.”

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The“ExponentialFactor”

“Thegreatestshortcomingofthehumanraceisourinabilitytounderstandtheexponentialfunction.”

AlbertBartlett– AmericanScholar

3www.ethernetalliance.org



Introduction• Bandwidthgrowthisdrivenby– Numberofusers– Accessrates– Services/Applicationsoffered

• ConnectedCarsrepresentanew“user”or“endstation”• Asautomotiveapplications(e.g.cloudservices,mapping,telemetry,anddataanalytics)increase,whatwillbetheimpactonthetrafficoftomorrow’snetworks?

• AnnualglobalIPtrafficsurpassedthezettabyte(ZB;1000exabytes[EB])thresholdin2016,andwillreach2.3ZBby2020.– GlobalIPtrafficwillreach1.1ZBperyearor88.7EB(onebilliongigabytes[GB])permonthin2016

– By2020,globalIPtrafficwillreach2.3ZBperyear,or194EBpermonth

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© 2017 Ethernet Alliancewww.ethernetalliance.org

November1,2017

WHATISTHE“GLOBALNETWORK?”



TheStartofEthernet

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Source:http://www.ieee802.org/3/ethernet_diag.html


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Source:https://ethernetalliance.org/roadmap/



"Thosewhodon'tknowhistoryaredestinedtorepeatit."

EdmundBurke(1729-1797)



Ethernet’s History of Rates




Source:DonnLeePresentationOFC2008

OFC/NFOEC2008:FacebookLivingintheVideoWorld

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TOOTHBRUSHGRAPH

VideoEnabled

This was a huge amount of traffic(multiple web services, millions of users)

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Someperspective:TheViewAfter10GigabitEthernet

Source:http://www.ieee802.org/3/hssg/public/nov07/HSSG_Tutorial_1107.zip

Thebeginning....

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TheIEEE802.3EthernetBandwidthAssessment

Trend#1

BandwidthGrowth

Trend#2

DiversityGrowth

Note:autoswerenot

inthisforecast!Source:www.ieee802.org/3/ad_hoc/bwa/BWA_Report.pdf

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“Disruptions”2007- 2014


Source:http://www.ieee802.org/3/400GSG/public/mar13/CFI_01_0313.pdf



TheWorldDuringtheDevelopmentof400GbE

• ManyofthesesametrendswillbeexperiencedbytheConnectedCar

• Historywillrepeatitself

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Source:http://www.ieee802.org/3/400GSG/public/mar13/CFI_01_0313.pdf



MobileNetworksBandwidthTrends- Global

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Source:http://www.cisco.com/c/dam/m/en_us/solutions/service-provider/vni-forecast-widget/forecast-widget/advanced.html



MobileNetworksBandwidthTrends- China

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Source:http://www.cisco.com/c/dam/m/en_us/solutions/service-provider/vni-forecast-widget/forecast-widget/advanced.html


TheAutomobile– theNextEndStation

Metcalfe’sLaw:Thevalueofatelecommunicationsnetworkisproportionaltothesquareofthenumberofconnectedusersofthesystem

-Dr.RobertMetcalfe,inventorofEthernet




ConnectedCars– DrivingBandwidthonMobileNetworks

2019- 117MillionVehiclestobeproduced**CFIMulti-GigAutomotiveEthernetPHY,http://www.ieee802.org/3/cfi/1116_1/CFI_01_1116.pdf.

2011ForecastforGlobalWirelessTrafficGeneratedbyEmbeddedMobilitybyApplication

Source- GSMA,ConnectingCars:TheTechnologyRoadmap,February2013,https://www.gsma.com/iot/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/GSMA_mAutomotive_TechnologyRoadmap_v2.pdf

AutomotiveEthernet

Car2CarConnection

Car2Cloud

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AutomotiveEthernet

Car2CarConnection

Car2Cloud

AutonomousDriving

Infotainment 5G

Regulatory

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AutomotiveEthernet

Car2CarConnection

Car2Cloud

WhatElse?Willtherebeenoughbandwidthintheglobalnetwork?

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Enablingbandwidth

Enablesapplications

Drivesbandwidth

TheStoryRemainstheSame….

TheConnectedCaristheNextChapter

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ASimpleEquationtoRemember

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#ofUsersIncreasedaccessrates&typesofconnections

Applicationsx x



Summary• Globalbandwidthusage– growingexponentially

• Socialmedia,smartphones,andvideoalldisruptedtheglobalnetwork

• Continuousnewdriverstobandwidthgrowth

• Weneedtounderstandhowautomobileswilladdtothisbandwidthusagetoinsurethattheglobalnetworkwillsupporttheneeds

• Weneedtheautomotiveindustrytohelpusunderstandhowtosupportthebandwidthneeds---helpushelpyou!

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If you have any questions or comments, please email [email protected]

Visit the Ethernet Alliance on Facebook

Ethernet Alliance: visit www.ethernetalliance.orgJoin the Ethernet Alliance LinkedIn groupFollow @EthernetAllianc on Twitter

JohnD’Ambrosia– [email protected] [email protected]


Thankyou!

D1-07 CARLSON Automotive Connectivity v3€¦ · •Connected Cars represent a new “user” or...

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