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Pg1}{\bkmkend Pg1}\par\pard\ql \li4012\sb0\sl-299\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li4012\sb0\sl-299\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li4012\sb0\sl-299\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li4012\sb0\sl-299\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li4012\sb0\sl-299\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li4012\sb0\sl-299\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li4012\sb0\sl-299\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li4012\sb19\sl-299\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-5\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf1\f2\fs26 PREVIZUNE ECONOMIC\u258? \par\pard\ql \li7470\sb0\sl-253\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li7470\sb66\sl-253\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-4\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf2\f3\fs22 Lect. dr. Ionu\u355? Gole\u355? \par\pard\ql \li5741\sb0\sl-299\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li5741\sb0\sl-299\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li5741\sb0\sl-299\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li5741\sb0\sl-299\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li5741\sb0\sl-299\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li5741\sb0\sl-299\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li5741\sb0\sl-299\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li5741\sb276\sl-299\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf3\f4\fs26 CUPRINS \par\pard\li2658\sb0\sl-253\slmult0\par\pard\li2658\sb0\sl-253\slmult0\par\pard\li2658\sb154\sl-253\slmult0\fi0\tldot\tx9199 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf4\f5\fs22 Capitolul 1 ELEMENTE INTRODUCTIVE\expndtw0\charscalex100\tab \t \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 7\par\pard\li2658\sb137\sl-241\slmult0\fi266\tldot\tx9182 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf5\f6\fs20 1.1. Terminologia studierii viitorului\expndtw0\charscalex100\tab \t \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 7\par\pard\li2658\sb136\sl-241\slmult0\fi266\tldot\tx9080 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 1.2. Utilizatorii rezultatelor previzionale\expndtw0\charscalex100\tab \t \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 10\par\pard\li2658\sb133\sl-241\slmult0\fi266\tldot\tx9078 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 1.3. Etapele fundamentale ale elabor\u259?rii previziunilor\expndtw0\charscalex100\tab \t \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 11\par\pard\li2658\sb135\sl-241\slmult0\fi266\tldot\tx9079 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 1.4. Forme \u351?i categorii de previziuni\expndtw0\charscalex100\tab \t \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 12\par\pard\li2658\sb135\sl-241\slmult0\fi266\tldot\tx9080 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 1.5. Indicatori ai erorilor de previziune\expndtw0\charscalex100\tab \t \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 14\par\pard\li2658\sb0\sl-253\slmult0\par\pard\li2658\sb92\sl-253\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf4\f5\fs22 Capitolul 2 METODE BAZATE PE ANALIZA SERIILOR DE\par\pard\li2658\sb10\sl-253\slmult0\fi1157\tldot\tx9080 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 TIMP\expndtw0\charscalex100\tab \t \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 17\par\pard\li2658\sb138\sl-241\slmult0\fi266\tldot\tx9081 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf5\f6\fs20 2.1. Introducere n analiza seriilor de timp\expndtw0\charscalex100\tab \t \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 17\par\pard\li2658\sb133\sl-241\slmult0\fi266\tldot\tx9079 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 2.2. Metode bazate pe valoarile medii\expndtw0\charscalex100\tab \t \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 20\par\pard\li2658\sb18\sl-241\slmult0\fi665\tldot\tx9080 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs20 2.2.1. Metoda mediei aritmetice simple\expndtw0\charscalex100\tab \t \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 20\par\pard\li2658\sb23\sl-241\slmult0\fi665\tldot\tx9080 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 2.2.2. Metoda mediei mobile \u351?i a mediei mobile ponderate\expndtw0\charscalex100\tab \t \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 21\par\pard\li2658\sb20\sl-241\slmult0\fi665 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 2.2.3. Metode bazate pe valorile medii pentru serii de timp non-\par\pard\li2658\sb23\sl-241\slmult0\fi1200\tldot\tx9079 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 sta\u355?ionare\expndtw0\charscalex100\tab \t \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 23\par\pard\li2658\sb139\sl-241\slmult0\fi266\tldot\tx9081 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf5\f6\fs20 2.3. Func\u355?ii de tendin\u355?\u259?\expndtw0\charscalex100\tab \t \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 28\par\pard\li2658\sb133\sl-241\slmult0\fi266\tldot\tx9078 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 2.5. Metode de previziune pentru fluctua\u355?iile sezoniere\expndtw0\charscalex100\tab \t \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 37\par\pard\li2658\sb18\sl-241\slmult0\fi665\tldot\tx9077 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs20 2.5.1. Metoda clasic\u259? de descompunere sezonier\u259?\expndtw0\charscalex100\tab \t \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 37\par\pard\li2658\sb23\sl-241\slmult0\fi665\tldot\tx9082 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 2.5.1. Nivelarea exponen\u355?ial\u259? Holt-Winters\expndtw0\charscalex100\tab \t \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 38\par\pard\li2658\sb137\sl-241\slmult0\fi266\tldot\tx9082 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf5\f6\fs20 2.8. Alte metode de previziune bazate pe analiza seriilor de timp\expndtw0\charscalex100\tab \t \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 39\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw12240\paperh15800\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg2}{\bkmkend Pg2}\par\pard\li2915\sb0\sl-253\slmult0\par\pard\li2915\sb0\sl-253\slmult0\par\pard\li2915\sb0\sl-253\slmult0\par\pard\li2915\sb0\sl-253\slmult0\par\pard\li2915\sb0\sl-253\slmult0\par\pard\li2915\sb0\sl-253\slmult0\par\pard\li2915\sb0\sl-253\slmult0\par\pard\li2915\sb0\sl-253\slmult0\par\pard\li2915\sb112\sl-253\slmult0\fi0\tldot\tx9317 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf4\f5\fs22 Capitolul 3 METODE ECONOMETRICE\expndtw0\charscalex100\tab \t \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 40\par\pard\li2915\sb138\sl-241\slmult0\fi266\tldot\tx9339 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf5\f6\fs20 3.1. Regresia liniar\u259?\expndtw0\charscalex100\tab \t \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 40\par\pard\li2915\sb16\sl-241\slmult0\fi665\tldot\tx9337 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs20 3.1.1. Regresia liniar\u259? simpl\u259?\expndtw0\charscalex100\tab \t \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 40\par\pard\li2915\sb22\sl-241\slmult0\fi665\tldot\tx9337 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 3.1.2. Regresia liniar\u259? multipl\u259?\expndtw0\charscalex100\tab \t \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 43\par\pard\li2915\sb0\sl-253\slmult0\par\pard\li2915\sb99\sl-253\slmult0\fi0\tldot\tx9315 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf4\f5\fs22 Capitolul 4 METODE SUBIECTIVE\expndtw0\charscalex100\tab \t \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 45\par\pard\li2915\sb135\sl-241\slmult0\fi266\tldot\tx9342 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf5\f6\fs20 4.1. Grupuri de interac\u355?iune\expndtw0\charscalex100\tab \t \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 45\par\pard\li2915\sb19\sl-241\slmult0\fi665\tldot\tx9337 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs20 4.1.1. Caracteristici ale grupurilor de interac\u355?iune\expndtw0\charscalex100\tab \t \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 45\par\pard\li2915\sb22\sl-241\slmult0\fi665\tldot\tx9337 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 4.1.2. Metoda Brainstorming\expndtw0\charscalex100\tab \t \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 45\par\pard\li2915\sb20\sl-241\slmult0\fi665\tldot\tx9341 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 4.1.3. Metoda Delphi\expndtw0\charscalex100\tab \t \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 46\par\pard\li2915\sb140\sl-241\slmult0\fi266\tldot\tx9340 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf5\f6\fs20 4.2. Metoda scenariilor\expndtw0\charscalex100\tab \t \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 48\par\pard\li2915\sb135\sl-241\slmult0\fi266\tldot\tx9341 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 4.3. Ancheta statistic\u259? cu caracter predictiv\expndtw0\charscalex100\tab \t \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 56\par\pard\li2915\sb0\sl-253\slmult0\par\pard\li2915\sb92\sl-253\slmult0\fi0\tldot\tx9314\tx9354 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf4\f5\fs22 Capitolul 5 METODE SPECIFICE DE PREVIZIUNE\expndtw0\charscalex100\tab \tab \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 58\par\pard\li2915\sb138\sl-241\slmult0\fi266\tldot\tx9341 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf5\f6\fs20 5.1. Metode de previziune pe pia\u355?a financiar\u259?\expndtw0\charscalex100\tab \t \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 58\par\pard\li2915\sb18\sl-241\slmult0\fi665\tldot\tx9340 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs20 5.1.1. Elemente de analiz\u259? fundamental\u259?\expndtw0\charscalex100\tab \t \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 59\par\pard\li2915\sb137\sl-241\slmult0\fi266\tldot\tx9342 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf5\f6\fs20 5.6. Previziuni de marketing\expndtw0\charscalex100\tab \t \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 62\par\pard\li2915\sb18\sl-241\slmult0\fi665\tldot\tx9339 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs20 5.6.1. Estim\u259?ri privind cota de pia\u355?\u259?\expndtw0\charscalex100\tab \t \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 62\par\pard\li2915\sb23\sl-241\slmult0\fi665\tldot\tx9337 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 5.6.2. Previziunea produselor noi lansate pe pia\u355?\u259?\expndtw0\charscalex100\tab \t \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 65\par\pard\li2915\sb0\sl-253\slmult0\par\pard\li2915\sb96\sl-253\slmult0\fi0\tldot\tx9316 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf4\f5\fs22 5.7. Previzune \u351?i planificare n carul organiza\u355?ilor de afaceri\expndtw0\charscalex100\tab \t \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 72\par\pard\li2915\sb21\sl-241\slmult0\fi665 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs20 5.7.1. Sistemul de previziune \u351?i planificare la nivel de intreprindere ... 72\par\pard\li2915\sb22\sl-241\slmult0\fi665\tldot\tx9340 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 5.7.2. Organizarea activit\u259?\u355?ilor de planificare \u351?i previziune\expndtw0\charscalex100\tab \t \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 75\par\pard\li2915\sb21\sl-241\slmult0\fi665\tldot\tx9340 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 5.7. 3 Previziunea situa\u355?iilor financiare\expndtw0\charscalex100\tab \t \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 77\par\pard\li2915\sb22\sl-241\slmult0\fi665\tldot\tx9341 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 5.7.4. Sistemul de bugetare n cadrul firmei\expndtw0\charscalex100\tab \t \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 83\par\pard\li2915\sb23\sl-241\slmult0\fi665\tldot\tx9339 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 5.7.4. Sisteme de planificare \u351?i previziune colaborative\expndtw0\charscalex100\tab \t \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 86\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw12240\paperh15800\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg3}{\bkmkend Pg3}\par\pard\ql \li5256\sb0\sl-299\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li5256\sb0\sl-299\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li5256\sb0\sl-299\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li5256\sb0\sl-299\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li5256\sb0\sl-299\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li5256\sb0\sl-299\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li5256\sb0\sl-299\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li5256\sb0\sl-299\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li5256\sb180\sl-299\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-4\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf3\f4\fs26 C\ul0\nosupersub\cf5\f6\fs20 APITOLUL\ul0\nosupersub\cf3\f4\fs26 1 \par\pard\ql \li4172\sb1\sl-299\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-4\charscalex100 ELEMENTE INTRODUCTIVE \par\pard\ql \li3335\sb0\sl-299\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li3335\sb282\sl-299\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 1.1. Terminologia studierii viitorului \par\pard\ql \li3328\sb0\sl-253\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li3328\sb66\sl-253\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-4\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf4\f5\fs22 Previziune \u351?i planificare \par\pard\ql \li2651\ri2755\sb258\sl-264\slmult0\fi677\tx3328 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 \ul0\nosupersub\cf7\f8\fs22 Previziunea \u351?i planificarea, v\u259?zute ca un proces integrat, se \up0 \expndtw-4\charscalex100 num\u259?r\u259? printre func\u355?iile de baz\u259? ale managementului. \line \tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf4\f5\fs22 Previziunea\ul0\nosupersub\cf7\f8\fs22 reprezint\u259? procesul prin care sunt realizate aprecieri \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 sau estim\u259?ri cu caracter probabil asupra viitorului. Obiectul previziuni \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 economice poate fi att valoare sau sensul de evolu\u355?ie unui indicator ct \up0 \expndtw-4\charscalex100 \u351?i producerea unui eveniment. \par\pard\qj \li2651\ri2760\sb0\sl-260\slmult0\fi677 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 Al\u355?i termeni sinonimi termenului de previziune sunt prognoza \u351?i \up0 \expndtw-4\charscalex100 predic\u355?ia. \par\pard\qj \li2651\ri2761\sb0\sl-280\slmult0\fi677 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 \ul0\nosupersub\cf5\f6\fs20 Planificarea\ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs20 presupune stabilirea unor obiective precum \u351?i a \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 modalit\u259?\u355?ilor concrete de realizare a acestora. \par\pard\qj \li2651\ri2745\sb0\sl-261\slmult0\fi677 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 n mod natural previziunea precede planificarea \u351?i ofer\u259? informa\u355?ii \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 necesare pentru realizarea acesteia. Se planific\u259? deci n contextul unor \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 previziuni iar modalit\u259?\u355?ile concrete de ac\u355?iune pe care le implic\u259? planificarea \line \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 sunt adoptate prin decizii. Prin urmare putem spune c\u259? previziunea reprezint\u259? un \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 proces suport pentru procesul decizional \u351?i cel de planificare. Chiar \u351?i n \line \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 situa\u355?ia n care procesul de planificare nu se bazeaz\u259? pe un \ul0\nosupersub\cf449\f450\fs20\ul proces de previziune \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 formal sau explicit\ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs20 totu\u351?i la baza planific\u259?rii se afl\u259? un set de ipoteze privind \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 viitorul care pot fi considerate\ul0\nosupersub\cf449\f450\fs20\ul previziuni implicite\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs20 . De exemplu planul de \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 afaceri al unei ntreprinderi care produce n baza unui contract ferm \u351?i n care \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 activitatea de previziune nu este organizat\u259? din punct de vedere formal se \line \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 bazeaz\u259? pe previziunea implicit\u259? c\u259? firma client nu va da faliment, pe faptul c\u259? \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 furnizorii vor continua s\u259? livreze materie prim\u259? la timpul \u351?i n cantitatea \line \up0 \expndtw-4\charscalex100 stabilit\u259?, n general pe faptul c\u259? mediul economic va r\u259?mne stabil. \par\pard\qj \li2651\ri2752\sb0\sl-264\slmult0\fi677 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs20 De\u351?i ntre procesele de previziune \u351?i planificare exist\u259? leg\u259?turi strnse, \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 care merg uneori pn\u259? la contopire, o delimitare a acestora poate fi f\u259?cut\u259? n \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 func\u355?ie de \ul0\nosupersub\cf449\f450\fs20\ul sfera de control \ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs20 a entit\u259?\u355?i economice. Capacitatea de control variaz\u259? \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 att din punct de vedere \ul0\nosupersub\cf449\f450\fs20\ul spa\u355?ial \ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs20 ct \u351?i \ul0\nosupersub\cf449\f450\fs20\ul temporar.\ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs20 Aceasta scade pe m\u259?sur\u259? ce se \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 realizeaz\u259? un transfer de orientare dinspre mediul interior c\u259?tre cel exterior \u351?i pe \up0 \expndtw-4\charscalex100 m\u259?sur\u259? ce orizontul de previziune devine mai lung. \par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw12240\paperh15800\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg4}{\bkmkend Pg4}\par\pard\qj \li2917\sb0\sl-263\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li2917\sb0\sl-263\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li2917\sb0\sl-263\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li2917\sb0\sl-263\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li2917\sb0\sl-263\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li2917\sb0\sl-263\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li2917\sb0\sl-263\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li2917\sb0\sl-263\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li2917\ri2492\sb18\sl-263\slmult0\fi677 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs20 Previziunea economic\u259? se orienteaz\u259? n general pe \ul0\nosupersub\cf449\f450\fs20\ul mediul extern\ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs20 mai \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 exact, pe acea component\u259? a mediului care, de\u351?i poate fi influen\u355?at\u259? de \line \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 organiza\u355?ia respectiv\u259?, nu se afl\u259? sub controlul direct al acesteia. Planificarea, n \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 schimb, vizeaz\u259? acel set de procese care se afl\u259? n sfera controlului direct al \line \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 entit\u259?\u355?ii, procese care de regul\u259? apar\u355?in \ul0\nosupersub\cf449\f450\fs20\ul mediului intern\ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs20 .\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs20 Prin urmare, este corect \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 s\u259? spunem c\u259? o firm\u259? previzioneaz\u259? cererea (mediul extern) pentru un anumit \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 bun pe pia\u355?\u259? \u351?i planific\u259? produc\u355?ia \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 (mediul intern) pe care urmeaz\u259? s\u259? o \par\pard\qj \li2917\ri2501\sb0\sl-260\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 realizeze n contextul cererii respective. Nu este corect ns\u259?, s\u259? spunem c\u259? o \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 firm\u259? planific\u259? evolu\u355?ia cursului valutar \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 (mediul extern) pentru o anumit\u259? \par\pard\qj \li2917\ri2487\sb0\sl-260\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 moned\u259? sau c\u259? o firm\u259? previzioneaz\u259? pre\u355?ul (mediul intern) unui produs atunci \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 cnd s-a luat decizia practic\u259?rii acelui pre\u355?. \par\pard\qj \li2917\ri2490\sb20\sl-260\slmult0\fi677 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 Exist\u259? ns\u259? \u351?i numeroase situa\u355?ii, a\u351?a cum s-a amintit deja, cnd \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 ac\u355?iunile unei firme de talie mare pot influen\u355?a mediul extern. De exemplu, \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 anticiparea ac\u355?iunilor mediului concuren\u355?ial face obiectul previziunii dar acest \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 lucru nu implic\u259? imposibilitatea influen\u355?\u259?rii concuren\u355?ei. Un alt exemplu este \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 cel legat de influn\u355?area sau chiar crearea unor noi nevoi n ceea ce prive\u351?te \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 comportamentul consumatorului fa\u355?\u259? de produsele firmei. Nevoia de a utiliza \line \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 tehnologia in domeniul comunic\u259?rii \u351?i inform\u259?rii a fost dezvoltat\u259?, f\u259?r\u259? ndoial\u259?, \line \up0 \expndtw-4\charscalex100 sub influen\u355?a marilor companii. \par\pard\qj \li2917\ri2482\sb20\sl-260\slmult0\fi677 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 \ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs20 Din punct de vedere temporal o variabil\u259? economic\u259? dat\u259? poate fi \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 planificat\u259? n cadrul unei firme n ceea ce prive\u351?te m\u259?rimea sau dinamica sa pe \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 termen scurt ns\u259?, pe un orizont mai lung, se ntmpl\u259? deseori ca aceia\u351?i \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 variabil\u259? s\u259? fac\u259? obiectul previziunii ie\u351?ind din sfera posibilit\u259?\u355?ii de a fi \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 controlat\u259? \u351?i deci de a se ac\u355?iona n mod direct asupra sa. \par\pard\qj \li2917\ri2484\sb0\sl-262\slmult0\fi677 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 n ceea ce prive\u351?te punctele comune dintre previziune \u351?i planificare, \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 f\u259?r\u259? ndoial\u259?, cel mai pregnant este \ul0\nosupersub\cf449\f450\fs20\ul orientarea ambelor procese c\u259?tre viitor\ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs20 . \line \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 Datorit\u259? orient\u259?rii c\u259?tre un domeniu temporal nerealizat sau nederulat nc\u259? care \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 nu pot fi controlat n totalitate se degaj\u259? \ul0\nosupersub\cf449\f450\fs20\ul caracterul de incertitudine\ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs20 al \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 previziunii. Chiar dac\u259? planificarea presupune un control mai ridicat, datorit\u259? \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 faptului c\u259? este fundamentat\u259? pe previziune caracterul de incertitudine se \line \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 tranfer\u259? \u351?i asupra acesteia. Incertitudinea cre\u351?te pe m\u259?sur\u259? ce mediul are un grad \line \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 de instabilitate mai ridicat. \par\pard\qj \li2917\ri2476\sb19\sl-260\slmult0\fi677 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\nosupersub\cf449\f450\fs20\ul Cu ct gradul de incertitudine este mai mare\ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs20 , adic\u259? mediul este mai \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 instabil, \ul0\nosupersub\cf449\f450\fs20\ul cu att previziunea, ca activitate organizat\u259?, devine mai necesar\u259? ns\u259? \line \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 devine, n acela\u351?i timp, mai greu de realizat\ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs20 . Cu ct \ul0\nosupersub\cf449\f450\fs20\ul gradul de incertitudine este \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 mai mare cu att procesul de planificare trebuie s\u259? devin\u259? mai flexibil\ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs20 pentru a \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 compensa probabilitatea sc\u259?zut\u259? cu care sunt garantate rezultatele predictive. \par\pard\qj \li2917\ri2497\sb0\sl-260\slmult0\fi677 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 \ul0\nosupersub\cf449\f450\fs20\ul Probabilitatea cu care sunt garantate rezultatele previziunii va fi \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 cuprins\u259? ntotdeauna ntre zero \u351?i unu\ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs20 , ntre imposibil \u351?i sigur, f\u259?r\u259? ca aceste \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 valori extreme s\u259? fie atinse. Cu alte cuvinte, n ceea ce prive\u351?te viitorul, nu \par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw12240\paperh15800\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg5}{\bkmkend Pg5}\par\pard\qj \li2651\sb0\sl-260\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li2651\sb0\sl-260\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li2651\sb0\sl-260\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li2651\sb0\sl-260\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li2651\sb0\sl-260\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li2651\sb0\sl-260\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li2651\sb0\sl-260\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li2651\sb0\sl-260\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li2651\ri2759\sb45\sl-260\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs20 putem afirma c\u259? un eveniment este imposibil sau c\u259? se va ntmpla cu siguran\u355?\u259? \line \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 absolut\u259?. \par\pard\ql \li3328\sb0\sl-241\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li3328\sb55\sl-241\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf5\f6\fs20 Previziune \u351?i estimare \par\pard\qj \li2651\ri2753\sb261\sl-263\slmult0\fi677 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 \ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs20 Termenul\ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs20 estimare\ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs20 are semnifica\u355?ia unei evalu\u259?ri aproximative prin \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 urmare \u355?innd cont de caracterul incert al previziunii termenii\ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs20 estimat\ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs20 sau \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs20 estimativ\ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs20 se folosesc pentru a caracteriza diferite rezultate previzionale. ns\u259? \line \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 trebuie men\u355?ionat faptul c\u259? dac\u259? previziunea are un\ul0\nosupersub\cf5\f6\fs20 caracter estimativ\ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs20 nu orice \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 valoare estimat\u259? este n mod implicit rezultatul previziunii. Termenul de \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 estimare are o semnifica\u355?ie mai larg\u259? \u351?i acoper\u259? o arie temporal\u259? mai extins\u259? \line \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 (trecut, prezent \u351?i viitor), prin urmare termenii nu sunt echivalen\u355?i. \par\pard\ql \li3328\sb0\sl-241\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li3328\sb35\sl-241\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf5\f6\fs20 Previziune \u351?i prospectiv\u259? \par\pard\qj \li2651\ri2755\sb261\sl-263\slmult0\fi677 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs20 Punctul de pornire al\ul0\nosupersub\cf5\f6\fs20 prospectivei\ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs20 este recunoa\u351?terea faptului c\u259? exist\u259? \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 mai multe scenarii posibile n ceea ce prive\u351?te viitorului. Scopul prospectivei \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 este explorarea diferitelor scenarii realiste alternative care apoi este urmat\u259? de \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 realizarea unor op\u355?iuni \u351?i decizii strategice. Astfel prospectiva implic\u259? o atitude \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 activ\u259? care porne\u351?te de la premisa c\u259? alegerile f\u259?cute n prezent modeleaz\u259? \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 viitorul. n timp ce previziunea r\u259?spunde la ntrebarea\ul0\nosupersub\cf10\f11\fs20 care este viitorul cel mai \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 probabil?\ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs20 Prospectiva r\u259?spunde n esen\u355?\u259? la dou\u259? ntreb\u259?ri: \par\pard\ql \li3667\sb16\sl-241\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 1. Care sunt posibilit\u259?\u355?ile de evolu\u355?ie viitoare? \par\pard\ql \li3667\sb19\sl-241\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 2. Ce trebuie f\u259?cut? \par\pard\ql \li3328\sb0\sl-241\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li3328\sb0\sl-241\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li3328\sb77\sl-241\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf5\f6\fs20 Simularea \u351?i analiza de sezitivitate. Instrumente ale previziunii \par\pard\qj \li2651\sb0\sl-261\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li2651\ri2757\sb2\sl-261\slmult0\fi677 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 Simularea\ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs20 reprezint\u259? imitarea unui fenomen real prin utilizarea unui \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 model sau a unui sistem simplificat pornind de la un set de ipoteze. O metod\u259? \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 de simulare, utilizat\u259? n special n domeniul economic, este\ul0\nosupersub\cf5\f6\fs20 analiza de \line \up0 \expndtw-4\charscalex100 senzitivitate \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs20 (\ul0\nosupersub\cf10\f11\fs20 engl. sensitivity analysis, what-if analysis).\ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs20 Analiza de \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 senzitivitate presupune studierea varia\u355?iei n output-ul unui sistem la diferite \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 varia\u355?ii ale elementelor de intrare sau input-uri n sistem. De exemplu pentru o \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 companie se poate simula, cu ajutorul analizei de senzitivitate, efectul asupra \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 profitului n cazul n care unul dintre clien\u355?ii iportan\u355?i ai acesteia \u351?i nceteaz\u259? \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 activitatea. Rezultatul simul\u259?rii\ul0\nosupersub\cf5\f6\fs20 nu reprezint\u259? ns\u259? o previziune\ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs20 ci este doar \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 efectul unei ipoteze de lucru: care ar fi profitul dac\u259? un anumit eveniment ar \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 avea loc. Dac\u259? ns\u259? facem o estimare n sens probabilist adic\u259? consider\u259?m c\u259? \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 exist\u259? o probabilitate foarte ridicat\u259? ca acel client s\u259? nceteze activitatea atunci \par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw12240\paperh15800{\shp {\*\shpinst\shpleft2972\shptop9795\shpright2981\shpbottom9805\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\shpbypage\shpwr3\shpwrk0\shpfblwtxt1\shpz662\shplid0{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipH}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipV}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn geoRight}{\sv 9}}{\sp{\sn geoBottom}{\sv 10}}{\sp{\sn pVerticies}{\sv 8;5;(0,10);(9,10);(9,1);(0,1);(0,10)}}{\sp{\sn pSegmentInfo}{\sv 2;11;16384;45824;1;45824;1;45824;1;45824;1;45824;32768}}{\sp{\sn fFillOK}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn fFilled}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn fillColor}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fLine}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn lineType}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fArrowheadsOK}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn fBehindDocument}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn lineColor}{\sv 0}}}}{\shp 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Pg6}{\bkmkend Pg6}\par\pard\qj \li2917\sb0\sl-260\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li2917\sb0\sl-260\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li2917\sb0\sl-260\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li2917\sb0\sl-260\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li2917\sb0\sl-260\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li2917\sb0\sl-260\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li2917\sb0\sl-260\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li2917\sb0\sl-260\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li2917\ri2484\sb45\sl-260\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 \ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs20 rezultatul simul\u259?rii devine o previziune. Prin urmare simularea nu trebuie \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 confundat\u259? cu previziunea ns\u259? poate fi utilizat\u259? n realizarea acesteia. n mod \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 similar termenului de estimare simularea nu este strict legat\u259? de viitor. \par\pard\ql \li3594\sb0\sl-241\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li3594\sb55\sl-241\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf5\f6\fs20 Previziune \u351?i viitorologie \par\pard\ql \li3594\sb0\sl-241\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li3594\sb38\sl-241\slmult0\tx4784 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 Viitorologia \tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs20 (\ul0\nosupersub\cf10\f11\fs20 engl. futurology, fr. futurologie\ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs20 ) este cea mai larg\u259? \par\pard\qj \li2917\ri2484\sb0\sl-265\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 no\u355?iune fiind definit\u259? n Dic\u355?ionarul explicativ al limbii romne ca\ul0\nosupersub\cf5\f6\fs20 \u351?tii\u355?a \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 viitorului.\ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs20 Viitorologia este folosit\u259?, de regul\u259?, pentru a desemna descriere a \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 viitorului n sens holistic \u351?i pe un orizont de timp foarte ndelungat. De regul\u259? \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 aceast\u259? activitate nu are implica\u355?ii practice pentru procesul de planificae \u351?i \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 decizie n domeniul economic. \par\pard\ql \li3594\sb0\sl-253\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li3594\sb12\sl-253\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-4\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf4\f5\fs22 ntreb\u259?ri de autoevaluare: \par\pard\ql \li3594\sb0\sl-253\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li3594\sb14\sl-253\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf7\f8\fs22 1. Care este rela\u355?ia dintre previziune \u351?i planificare? \par\pard\ql \li3594\sb7\sl-253\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 2. Delimita\u355?i cele dou\u259? concepte mai sus men\u355?ionate. \par\pard\ql \li3594\ri2491\sb2\sl-260\slmult0\tx3933 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 3. Ar\u259?ta\u355?i care no\u355?iune are o semnifica\u355?ie mai larg\u259? cel de \line\tab \up0 \expndtw-4\charscalex100 estimare sau cel de previziune. \par\pard\ql \li3594\sb6\sl-253\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 4. La ce ntreb\u259?ri r\u259?spund previziunea \u351?i prospectiva. \par\pard\ql \li3594\sb27\sl-253\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 5. Cum poat fi utilizat\u259? analiza de senzitivitate n previziune? \par\pard\ql \li3601\sb0\sl-299\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li3601\sb0\sl-299\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li3601\sb0\sl-299\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li3601\sb112\sl-299\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-5\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf3\f4\fs26 1.2. Utilizatorii rezultatelor previzionale \par\pard\ql \li3030\sb0\sl-241\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li3030\sb0\sl-241\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li3030\sb127\sl-241\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs20 \u9632? La nivel microeconomic: \par\pard\ql \li3069\ri2614\sb24\sl-260\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 - Managementul companiei, pentru fundamentarea deciziilor strategice, \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 tactice \u351?i opera\u355?ionale \par\pard\ql \li3069\sb16\sl-241\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 - Investitorii (ac\u355?ionari, asocia\u355?i), pentru fundamentarea deciziei de investire \par\pard\ql \li3069\sb19\sl-241\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf7\f8\fs22 -\ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs20 Finan\u355?atori (b\u259?nci), pentru fundamentarea deciziei de finan\u355?are \par\pard\ql \li3030\sb39\sl-241\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 \u9632? La nivel mezoeconomic (sector, industrie sau domeniu de activitate): \par\pard\ql \li3069\ri2599\sb24\sl-260\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 - Managementul companiilor, care trebuie s\u259? aib\u259? n vederea evolu\u355?ia de \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 ansamblu \u351?i intensitatea competi\u355?iei din domeniul n care ac\u355?ioneaz\u259? \par\pard\ql \li3069\ri2602\sb0\sl-260\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 - Investitorii (ac\u355?ionari, asocia\u355?i), care nainte de a investi ntr-o compania \up0 \expndtw-4\charscalex100 analizeaz\u259? cu aten\u355?ie domeniul economic n care aceasta ac\u355?ioneaz\u259? \par\pard\ql \li3069\ri2604\sb0\sl-260\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 - Finan\u355?atori (b\u259?nci), care acord\u259? mai u\u351?or finan\u355?are pentru companiile care \up0 \expndtw-4\charscalex100 ac\u355?ioneaz\u259? n anumite domenii cu perspective mai mari de dezvoltare {\shp 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