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Current Watches and Warnings A Hurricane Warning is in effect from north of Altamaha Sound to Surf City (North Carolina)

A Hurricane Watch is in effect from north of Surf City to Cape Lookout

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from north of Surf City to Duck; Pamlico and Albemarle sounds

Current Details from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) COORDINATES: 33.0° north, 79.4° west (previous location: 30.2° north, 80.7° west) LOCATION: 55 miles (90 kilometers) south-southwest of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina MOVEMENT: northeast at 12 mph (19 kph) (previous: north at 12 mph (19 kph)) WINDS: 75 mph (120 kph) with gusts to 90 mph (150 kph) (previous: 110 mph (175 kph)) RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS: 185 miles (295 kilometers) RADIUS OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS: 25 miles (35 kilometers) MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 967 millibars (previous: 948 millibars) SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE RANKING*: Category 1 1st LANDFALL LOCATION: near Les Anglais, Haiti 1st LANDFALL TIMEFRAME: approximately 7:00 AM local time October 3 (11:00 UTC) 1st LANDFALL INTENSITY: 145 mph (230 kph) – Category 4 2nd LANDFALL LOCATION: near Juaco, Cuba 2nd LANDFALL TIMEFRAME: approximately 8:00 PM local time October 4 (00:00 UTC October 5) 2nd LANDFALL INTENSITY: 140 mph (220 kph) – Category 4 3rd LANDFALL LOCATION: near McClellanville, South Carolina 3rd LANDFALL TIMEFRAME: approximately 11:00 AM local time October 8 (15:00 UTC) 3rd LANDFALL INTENSITY: 75 mph (120 kph) – Category 1

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Cat Alert: Hurricane Matthew 2

Latest Satellite Picture

Source: NOAA

Discussion Hurricane Matthew, located approximately 55 miles (90 kilometers) south-southwest of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, is currently tracking northeast at 12 mph (19 kph). Aircraft reconnaissance and land-based radar data indicate that the center of circulation has crossed the coast of South Carolina near the Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge.

The cloud pattern associated with Matthew is beginning to acquire some extratropical characteristics. The wind field is expanding, and the area of heavy rains is now northwest of the center. Data from NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft earlier this morning indicated that the surface winds have decreased to around 75 mph (120 kph). Most of the forecast models, primarily the GFS and the UKMET, forecast that Matthew will become entangled with a cold front, and the new NHC forecast calls for Matthew to become absorbed within this frontal system within the next couple of days. During the next 12 to 24 hours, while the Matthew is hugging the US coast and taking on a more extratropical structure, the tropical-storm-force winds are expected to expand and strengthen in the western semicircle and continue to affect portions of the coast within the warning area.

Matthew is already embedded in the mid-latitude westerly flow and is moving toward the northeast. The steering pattern is forecast to persist for the next day or two, and on this basis the NHC forecast moves the cyclone eastward until it becomes absorbed. Previous NHC official forecasts followed the EMCWF in keeping the cyclone a distinct entity longer and looping it southward, but even if this the case the system will likely be only a broad area of low pressure.

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Cat Alert: Hurricane Matthew 3

KEY MESSAGE FROM THE NHC 1. As Matthew's structure changes, the system's strongest winds will shift to the back side of the circulation. These winds will persist over land even after the center begins to move away from the coastline, and has also increased the threat of storm surge in portions of the North Carolina Outer Banks.

ADDITIONAL STORM INFORMATION Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the warning area in Georgia and South Carolina this afternoon, and spread northward elsewhere within the warning area through tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning area in North Carolina by tonight or Sunday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected later today.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide, and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at high tide:

- Charleston, SC to Cape Fear, NC: 5 to 7 feet - Cape Fear to Duck, NC (including portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds): 2 to 4 feet

Along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts southwest of Matthew's center, inundation caused by Matthew's storm surge will slowly recede today.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to Bogue Inlet, North Carolina as well as from Cape Lookout to Salvo, North Carolina including portions of the Pamlico Sound. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours from Bogue Inlet to Cape Lookout, North Carolina and from Salvo to Duck, North Carolina including portions of the Albemarle Sound.

Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches near and east of Interstate 95 in South Carolina and North Carolina, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. Matthew is expected to produce 2 to 6 inches of rain over central South Carolina, western North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia. In all of these areas rainfall may result in life-threatening flooding and flash flooding.

A couple of tornadoes are possible through early tonight along the coast of North Carolina.

Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the east coast of Florida during the next few days, and will spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast through the weekend.

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Cat Alert: Hurricane Matthew 4

National Hurricane Center Forecast

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Cat Alert: Hurricane Matthew 5

National Hurricane Center: Wind Speed Probabilities

Tropical Storm-Force Wind Probabilities (≥40 mph (65 kph))

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Cat Alert: Hurricane Matthew 6

Wind Probabilities (≥60 mph (95 kph))

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Cat Alert: Hurricane Matthew 7

Hurricane-Force Wind Probabilities (≥75 mph (120 kph))

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Cat Alert: Hurricane Matthew 8

National Hurricane Center: Wind History Map

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Cat Alert: Hurricane Matthew 9

Weather Prediction Center: Rainfall Potential

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Cat Alert: Hurricane Matthew 10

National Hurricane Center: Storm Surge

Additional Information and Update Schedule Wind intensity forecasts and forecast track information can be found via the National Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov

NEXT CAT ALERT: Sunday morning after 10:00 AM Central Time (15:00 UTC).

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Cat Alert: Hurricane Matthew 11

*Tropical Cyclone Intensity Classifications for Global Basins WIND SPEED BASINS AND MONITORING BUREAU

KTS1 MPH1 KPH1

NE Pacific, Atlantic

NW Pacific

NW Pacific

SW Pacific Australia SW

Indian North Indian

National Hurricane

Center (NHC)

Joint Typhoon Warning

Center (JTWC)

Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS)

Bureau Of Meteorology

(BOM) Meteo-France

(MF)

India Meteorological

Department (IMD)

30 35 55 Tropical Depression

Tropical Depression

Tropical Depression

Tropical Depression

Tropical Low

Tropical Depression

Deep Depression

35 40 65

Tropical Storm

Tropical Storm

Tropical Storm

Cat. 1 Tropical Cyclone

Cat. 1 Tropical Cyclone

Moderate Tropical Storm

Cyclonic Storm 40 45 75

45 50 85

50 60 95 Severe Tropical Storm

Cat. 2 Tropical Cyclone

Cat. 2 Tropical Cyclone

Severe Tropical Storm

Severe Cyclonic Storm

55 65 100

60 70 110

65 75 120

Cat. 1 Hurricane

Typhoon

Typhoon

Cat. 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone

Cat. 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone

Tropical Cyclone

Very Severe

Cyclonic Storm

70 80 130

75 85 140

80 90 150

85 100 160

Cat. 2 Hurricane 90 105 170

Cat. 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone

Cat. 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone Intense

Tropical Cyclone

95 110 175

100 115 185

Cat. 3 Major

Hurricane

105 120 195

110 125 205

Cat. 5 Severe Tropical Cyclone

Cat. 5 Severe Tropical Cyclone

115 130 210

120 140 220

Cat. 4 Major

Hurricane Very Intense Tropical Cyclone

Super Cyclonic Storm

125 145 230

130 150 240

Super Typhoon

135 155 250

140 160 260 Cat. 5 Major

Hurricane >140 >160 >260

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Cat Alert: Hurricane Matthew 12

About Aon Benfield

Aon Benfield, a division of Aon plc (NYSE: AON), is the world’s leading reinsurance intermediary and full-service capital advisor. We empower our clients to better understand, manage and transfer risk through innovative solutions and personalized access to all forms of global reinsurance capital across treaty, facultative and capital markets. As a trusted advocate, we deliver local reach to the world’s markets, an unparalleled investment in innovative analytics, including catastrophe management, actuarial and rating agency advisory. Through our professionals’ expertise and experience, we advise clients in making optimal capital choices that will empower results and improve operational effectiveness for their business. With more than 80 offices in 50 countries, our worldwide client base has access to the broadest portfolio of integrated capital solutions and services. To learn how Aon Benfield helps empower results, please visit aonbenfield.com. Copyright © by Impact Forecasting® No claim to original government works. The text and graphics of this publication are provided for informational purposes only. While Impact Forecasting® has tried to provide accurate and timely information, inadvertent technical inaccuracies and typographical errors may exist, and Impact Forecasting® does not warrant that the information is accurate, complete or current. The data presented at this site is intended to convey only general information on current natural perils and must not be used to make life-or-death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property, as the data may not be accurate. Please listen to official information sources for current storm information. This data has no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances. Cat Alerts use publicly available data from the internet and other sources. Impact Forecasting® summarizes this publicly available information for the convenience of those individuals who have contacted Impact Forecasting® and expressed an interest in natural catastrophes of various types. To find out more about Impact Forecasting or to sign up for the Cat Reports, visit Impact Forecasting’s webpage at impactforecasting.com. Copyright © by Aon plc.

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