Crude Markets and Storage Summit - LBCG on where you sell, you may have 30,000 – 70,000 barrels in...
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Transcript of Crude Markets and Storage Summit - LBCG on where you sell, you may have 30,000 – 70,000 barrels in...
Crude Markets and Storage Summit
July 2015
Topics
� Introduction to First River Energy
� Crude Oil Marketing Fundamentals
� Impact of Market Structure on Netbacks
� Optimization Options
� Conclusion
Introd
uction
2
First River Energy Overview
� First River Energy is a midstream energy company providing crude oil gathering & marketing services to independent producers throughout North America � Focused on crude oil midstream market and producers who are not
pipeline connected
� Gathering in this segment is characterized by a high volume of small transactions, a shortage of infrastructure
� First River Energy invests in and operates: � Crude oil logistics infrastructure (trucks, terminals, pipelines), and
� Proprietary web-based systems to simplify the back-office and create a significant efficiency gains
Introd
uction
3
First River Energy’s Current Operations
4
• FRE contracts with oil producers* to buy oil at their oil-well
• Purchase is negotiated on typically the same basis as the sale, locking in a margin
• FRE sends 180-220 bbl. trucks to pick up the oil and takes title to the product
• FRE provides critical logistic data back to the producer through our websites
• FRE contracts with 3rd party truck operators to move oil to markets and take custody of the product
• 3rd party truck vendors must meet all regulatory, insurance and other FRE standards
• FRE works with truck operators to optimize their logistics and extract data, which FRE then provides back to the producer
• FRE contracts with oil buyers*, typically pipeline marketers and refiners, to sell the oil at their facilities
• Typically a access agreement without a volume commitment
• FRE dispatched trucks delivers the oil and transfers title of the product to the buyer
• Through our websites, oil buyers can easily track their purchases 24/7
Introd
uction
* First River Energy considers both crude oil suppliers and crude oil buyers its “customers”.
What is my oil worth? What someone is willing to pay for it.
Fundam
entals
5
Traditional Crude Oil Gathering for The Small Guy
Fundam
entals
6
Lease Truck Pipe / Refinery
$$$
Fundam
entals
7
Price of Oil Received by Producer = Price of Oil Paid by Refiner – Transportation
� Price of Oil Paid by Refiner
� Competing Options
� Quality
� Reliability
� Term
� Transportation
� Competing Options
� Distance
� Mode of Transportation
� Tanker $
� Pipe $$
� Barge $$$
� Rail $$$$
� Truck $$$$$
� Blending and Treatment
� Storage
� Term and Reliability
� Transloading between transportation modes
� How many times does product change hands
Some High Level Economics
� Frequently the cost of getting out of a geographic region is relatively fixed and very hard to influence
� Function of type of transportation infrastructure, distance and competing options
� Pipe: $2.00 – $5.00 per barrel
� Rail: >$5.00 per barrel
� Cost of first 50 miles can vary greatly, and is expensive
� Gathering pipeline system is ideal solution for larger volumes that are geographically concentrated <$2.00 per barrel
� Not an option for lower volume wells or dispersed production
� Takes time to develop, and may need contractual support
� Truck gathering frequently is only option
� Typical truck gathering economics ~$4.00 – $5.00 (assumes ~50 mile haul)
� Direct costs (Salaries, fuel, maintenance etc.): $3.00
� Marketing Expenses (terminal fees, salaries): $1.00
� G&A (Salaries, depreciation etc.): $1.00
� FRE is focused on optimizing the truck gathered piece of the market
Fundam
entals
8
What Every Producer Should Know
� As a midstream company, we frequently see an information disconnect between the field and the corporate office when developing solutions and pricing
� Recent average daily production
� Recent quality
� Gravity
� BS&W
� H2S
� Locations from which they sell crude
� Tank batteries
� Leases
� Understand the crude markets around production
� How does the markets price oil (WTI, LLS, Brent, Cushing)?
� What is the current basis in my market from WTI?
� How volatile is my market compared to WTI. What drives volatility?
� What is my next best alternative to my current market?
� Demand that your midstream partner provide current and relevant information in a convenient manner
Fundam
entals
9
Single Market Scenario - Monopoly
� One pipeline, rail terminal, barge terminal or refiner dominates
� Buyer’s market
� Frequently the case in new geographic areas
� Who buys at pipeline?
� Single shipper, buyer’s market
� Multiple shippers, How are prices set?
� Quality specifications � Single specification vs. batch options
� Single market option could be a result of unusual crude quality
� Options to Improve Netbacks
� Focus on costs of getting to pipeline
� Demand price transparency from midstream partner
� Work with midstream partner to explore and develop additional market locations
� Understand next best option. May have to truck >100 miles
� Provide contracted support for additional flexible infrastructure (only option for larger producers)
� Consider supporting the development of rail options
Market S
tructu
re
10
Development of Market Options
� Producers benefit from working with their midstream partner to maximize sales market options through infrastructure development
� The firmer the commitment, the more efficient the infrastructure that may be developed
� Long distance pipelines offering direct market access cost more and take longer to develop, and as such typically require firmer and longer term commitments
� Costs hundreds of millions to build and may takes >3-year from concept to operation
� Short distance pipelines offer indirect market access but reduces the cost of trucking and does not require firm contract support
� Costs tens of millions to build and may take as little as 1-year from concept to operation
� On the other end, pipeline access points (LACT) and small terminals, may developed quicker but typically only offer indirect market access
� Cost range: $250 thousand to $2 million
11
Market S
tructu
re
Dual Market Scenario
� Two options: pipeline(s), rail terminal(s), barge terminal(s) or refinery
� Competitive market � Work with midstream partner to frequently evaluate both options
� Understand costs of getting to market
� Understand number of buyers at each market location
� Market locations may be controlled by same buyer
� Understand where these markets go � Market locations may be tied in to same end market
� Quality optimization
� More options are better
� Consider blending options to optimize for both markets
� Options to Improve Netbacks � Midstream partner should provide transparent and frequent reporting of state of
markets, and be prepared to switch between markets
� Support the development of additional flexible markets through term contracts
Market S
tructu
re
12
Case Study: Longview Market C
ase Stu
dy
13
� Midstream business gathers a few thousand barrels a day from a diverse group of producers around Longview Texas
� Purchase oil at lease, pick-up, transports and delivers via truck to to station on Sunoco’s Mid-Valley pipeline, and sells to various refiners at pipeline
� Trucking distances average approximately 50 miles ($2.50 - $3.50 in transportation costs)
� In late 2014, the pipeline experienced issues and the midstream business had to find new home for volumes
� Had limited options for this amount of oil but selected a Lake Charles market, 215 miles away for most of the volumes ($5.00 - $10.00 in transportation costs)
� Mid-Valley is a WTI based market and Lake Charles is a WTI + WTI vs. LLS spread market
$0.00$
$1.00$
$2.00$
$3.00$
$4.00$
$5.00$
$6.00$
$7.00$
$8.00$
$9.00$
$10.00$
9/1/14$ 10/1/14$ 11/1/14$ 12/1/14$ 1/1/15$ 2/1/15$ 3/1/15$ 4/1/15$
Argus$LLS/WTI$Differen>al$(Daily)$ Value$Used$In$Pricing$During$Period$(SeJlement)$
Case Study: Longview Market (cont.)
14
“Normal” range
Case Study: Longview Market (cont.)
� Result:
� Midstream company faced additional costs of an unplanned 200 mile haul
� Impact was compounded by weak LLS market in early 2015
� In March & April WTI vs. LLS market strengthened improving net profits
� The Twist � The Mid-Valley pipeline restored volumes in May
� As a result of a strong WTI vs. LLS market, the midstream company continues to move barrels to Lake Charles to provide producers with a better netback
� Optionality matters: Depending on market pricing, sometimes a 200 mile haul results in a better netback to producers than a 40 mile haul
Case S
tudy
15
Multiple Market Scenario
� Seller’s market
� Many options � Your midstream partner should frequently evaluate and report on all options
� Options to Improve Netbacks
� Getting to market as efficiently as possible. Demand transparency
� Be prepared to allow midstream partner to switch based on market changes
Other Considerations
� Reliability and Predictabilities
� Barge markets may suffer from delays due to weather, droughts etc.
� Rail markets have suffered from interruptions due to railroad operational issues
� Pipeline maintenance and repairs
� Working Capital Requirements � Both barge and rail are effectively bulk build and ship operations
� Depending on where you sell, you may have 30,000 – 70,000 barrels in transit
Market S
tructu
re
16
Case Study: Market Full
� Midstream company purchases approximately 1,000 bpd of crude oil in South Texas from a diverse group of small producers
� Midstream company buys the oil at the lease, picks-up, hauls and delivers oil to a barge terminal with a large storage tank (~80kbbls), and sells oil to a refinery at the barge
� Due to barge operations and regulatory issues, barges was delayed and inventory rapidly built to maximum
� Once terminal tank was full, Midstream company had to reroute crude to alternative market, with weaker pricing in Corpus area
� Midstream company had to manage slight increased costs of hauling, and more significantly weaker sales market
� Additionally, midstream company had additional working capital tied up in inventory in the tank
Case S
tudy
17
Truck Gathering is an “Old-School” Business with Limited Use of Information Technology
� In many small truck-based gathering businesses, a white board is used for dispatch
� Handwritten tickets are stored locally and processes on a monthly cycle
� Many opportunities for mistakes
Optim
ization
18
The Low Hanging Fruit: Electronic Run Tickets O
ptim
ization
19
� The crude oil truck ticket (“run-ticket”) is the key custody transfer document for oil pickups and deliveries
� Tickets are frequently manually prepared by drivers and suffer from poor handwriting, in accuracies, getting lost and processing delays
� Crude suppliers, buyers and midstream companies need ticket proof as part of their financial settlement process
First River Energy Solution “Old-school” methods
� Data inputted on smart tablet- which prints an electronic ticket in the field
� Real time data upload from the field and incorporated into website
� Crude suppliers can approve run tickets, manage multiple wells and know their economics
First River Energy’s Proprietary Crude Supplier Website is Live
Optim
ization
20
• FRE developed a proprietary crude supplier facing web-based portal where crude suppliers can conveniently access transaction and logistics information
• The website allows suppliers to query individual well metrics or multiple wells at once
• Analysis tools currently available includes ticket and logistic data
• FRE continually adds features to the website based on supplier feedback and internal logistics experience
Conclusion
� Producer netbacks is a function of refinery economics and transportation costs
� Transportation costs is a function of distance, the type of infrastructure, but also competition in the market
� The first 50 miles is a major component of total transportation costs and in many cases can be better managed by the right midstream partner
� Producers benefit from partnering with a midstream company to � Provide real-time production, market and logistics information
� Develop multiple market options
� Switch destinations as markets change
� Demand transparent and timely market information from your midstream partner
Q&A
Con
clusion
21