Crop Market Update Ag Market Update Jim Hilker Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics Department...

Crop Market UpdateAg Market Update

Jim HilkerAgricultural, Food, and Resource Economics Department Michigan State UniversityAugust 25, 2014

Monthly Corn Futures

8/25/14 Dec 2014 Corn Futures

USDA-NASS 8-12-14

USDA-NASS 8-12-14

Crop UnitAugust

2014

% Change from

Previous Forecast

% Change from

Previous Season

Corn

Planted Mil Ac 91.6 NC -3.9

Harvested Mil Ac 83.8 NC -4.4

Yield Bu/Ac 167.4 --- +5.4

Production Bil Bu 14.0 --- +0.8

August 2014 Crop Production

167.4

60708090

100110120130140150160170180

Bushels/Acre

U.S. Corn Yield

USDA-NASS 8-12-14

10.111.8

10.5

13.0

13.0

13.112.5 12.4

10.8

13.9 14.0

9.00

10.00

11.00

12.00

13.00

14.00

15.00

Billion Bushels

U.S. Corn Production

USDA-NASS 8-12-14

USDA-NASS 08-12-14

Corn for Grain Yields, August 1, 2014Bushels and Change From Previous Year

149#1

180-7

170-25

14413

160-6

162-13

188#10

179#2

185#20

14518 138

-32

180#7

158#NC

161#6

1688

178#2

16024

1733

136-3

150#12

132-10

12717

177#NC

145NC

149#2

117-13

U.S. 167.4#8.6

# Record High

NC = No Change

1391

150-6

1446

140-14

210-5

15610

Est. Proj.2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014-2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

(million acres)Acres Planted 78.9 78.6 80.9 81.8 78.3 93.5 86.0 86.4 88.2 91.9 97.2 95.4 91.6Acres Harvested 69.3 70.9 73.6 75.1 70.6 86.5 78.6 79.5 81.4 84.0 87.4 87.7 83.8Yield/Bushels 129.3 142.2 160.4 148 149.1 150.7 153.9 164.7 152.8 147.2 123.4 158.8 167.4

(million bushels)Beginning Stocks 1596 1087 958 2114 1967 1304 1624 1673 1708 1128 989 821 1181Production 8967 10089 11807 11114 10531 13038 12092 13092 12447 12360 10780 13925 14032Imports 14 14 11 9 12 20 14 8 28 29 160 35 30

Total Supply 10578 11190 12776 13237 12510 14362 13729 14774 14182 13517 11929 14781 15243

Use:Feed & Residual 5563 5798 6158 6155 5591 5913 5182 5125 4795 4557 4325 5175 5250Food, Seed & Ind 2340 2537 2686 2981 3490 4387 5025 5961 6426 6428 6053 6505 6460Ethanol for fuel 996 1168 1323 1603 2119 3049 3709 4591 5019 5000 4648 5120 5075

Total Domestic 7903 8335 8844 9136 9081 10300 10207 11086 11221 10985 10378 11680 11710Exports 1588 1897 1818 2134 2125 2437 1849 1980 1834 1543 730 1920 1725

Total Use 9491 10232 10662 11270 11206 12737 12056 13066 13055 12528 11108 13600 13435

Ending Stocks 1087 958 2114 1967 1304 1624 1673 1708 1128 989 821 1181 1808Ending Stocks, %of Use 11.5 9.4 19.8 17.5 11.6 12.8 13.9 13.1 8.6 7.9 7.4 8.7 13.5

U.S. Loan Rate $1.98 $1.98 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95U.S. Season AveFarm Price, $/Bu. $2.32 $2.42 $2.06 $2.00 $3.04 $4.20 $4.06 $3.55 $5.18 $6.22 $6.89 $4.45 $3.90

Source: USDA/WASDE and Jim Hilker. (8 - 12 - 14)

TABLE 1 SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE SHEET FOR CORN

August 12, 2014

U.S. Meat Production and Prices2014

estimate2015

forecastChange from

July 11Change from

2014Production Billion pounds Percent PercentBeef 24.56 24.33 -0.2 -1.0Pork 22.78 23.28 0.2 2.2Broilers 38.40 39.35 0.1 2.5Turkey 5.71 5.93 0.0 3.7Total meat 92.23 93.67 0.0 1.6

Prices Dollars/cwtSteers 151.79 155.50 2.8 2.4Hogs 79.77 74.75 -3.9 -6.3

Cents/lbBroilers 104.5 103.8 -0.5 -0.7Turkey 106.6 106.5 0.0 -0.1

Est. Proj.2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014-2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015



Total Supply 10578 11190 12776 13237 12510 14362 13729 14774 14182 13517 11929 14781 15243



Total Use 9491 10232 10662 11270 11206 12737 12056 13066 13055 12528 11108 13600 13435





August 12, 2014

U.S. Corn Supply and Demand2013/14 estimate

2014/15 forecast

Change from July 11

Change from 2013/14

Percent PercentPlanted area (million acres) 95.4 91.6 0.0 -3.9Harvested area (million acres) 87.7 83.8 0.0 -4.4Yield (bushels per acre) 158.8 167.4 1.3 5.4

Million bushelsBeginning stocks 821 1,181 -5.2 43.9Production 13,925 14,032 1.2 0.8Imports 35 30 0.0 -14.3Total supply 14,781 15,243 0.7 3.1

Feed and residual 5,175 5,250 1.0 1.4Food, seed, and industrial 6,505 6,460 0.4 -0.7Ethanol 5,120 5,075 0.5 -0.9Domestic use 11,680 11,710 0.6 0.3

Exports 1,920 1,725 1.5 -10.2Total use 13,600 13,435 0.7 -1.2

Ending stocks 1,181 1,808 0.4 53.1Percent

Stocks to use ratio 8.7 13.5Dollars per bushel

Average market price 4.40/4.50 3.55/4.25 -2.5 -12.4

Est. Proj.2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014-2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015



Total Supply 10578 11190 12776 13237 12510 14362 13729 14774 14182 13517 11929 14781 15243



Total Use 9491 10232 10662 11270 11206 12737 12056 13066 13055 12528 11108 13600 13435





World Corn Production

August 12, 2014

Country or Region2013/14 estimate

2014/15 forecast

Change from July 11

Change from 2013/14

Million Tons Percent Percent

World 984.4 985.4 0.5 0.1United States 353.7 356.4 1.2 0.8

Foreign 630.7 629.0 0.0 -0.3Argentina 24.0 26.0 0.0 8.3Brazil 78.0 74.0 0.0 -5.1Mexico 22.4 22.5 0.0 0.4Canada 14.2 11.6 0.0 -18.3European Union 64.0 67.0 2.1 4.8FSU-12 46.9 44.2 0.0 -5.8Ukraine 30.9 27.0 0.0 -12.6Russia 11.6 13.0 0.0 11.7

South Africa 14.8 13.5 0.0 -8.5China 218.5 222.0 0.0 1.6India 24.2 21.0 -4.5 -13.2

World Corn Supply and Use

August 12, 2014

2013/14 estimate

2014/15 forecast

Change from July 11

Change from 2013/14


Beginning stocks 138.1 171.1 -1.3 23.8Production 984.4 985.4 0.5 0.1Total Supply 1,122.5 1,156.5 0.2 3.0

Feed use 576.3 594.4 0.1 3.1Total use 951.4 968.7 0.2 1.8

Trade 125.5 115.9 0.6 -7.7Ending Stocks 171.1 187.8 -0.1 9.8

August 12, 2014

U.S. Corn Supply and Demand2013/14 estimate

2014/15 forecast

Change from July 11

Change from 2013/14

Percent PercentPlanted area (million acres) 95.4 91.6 0.0 -3.9Harvested area (million acres) 87.7 83.8 0.0 -4.4Yield (bushels per acre) 158.8 167.4 1.3 5.4

Million bushelsBeginning stocks 821 1,181 -5.2 43.9Production 13,925 14,032 1.2 0.8Imports 35 30 0.0 -14.3Total supply 14,781 15,243 0.7 3.1

Feed and residual 5,175 5,250 1.0 1.4Food, seed, and industrial 6,505 6,460 0.4 -0.7Ethanol 5,120 5,075 0.5 -0.9Domestic use 11,680 11,710 0.6 0.3

Exports 1,920 1,725 1.5 -10.2Total use 13,600 13,435 0.7 -1.2

Ending stocks 1,181 1,808 0.4 53.1Percent


Average market price 4.40/4.50 3.55/4.25 -2.5 -12.4

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING 8/14/2014 New Crop Weekly Prev Weekly Sales Unshipped Total Year Sales Unshipped --GRAINS-- (in million bushels) Corn 3.9 151.4 1,918.0 752.2 28.3 364.3 Sorghum 0.3 30.0 197.5 63.7 4.2 42.3 Soybeans -3.3 68.0 1,693.5 1,366.1 52.2 717.0 All Wheat 7.7 7.9 399.4 536.6 0.0 1.4 Durum 0.0 0.2 6.9 5.7 0.0 0.0 Hard Red Spring 2.1 2.5 126.0 90.0 0.0 0.0 Hard Red Winter -0.9 57.9 120.6 182.7 0.0 0.7 Soft Red Winter 5.3 46.8 81.1 196.6 0.0 0.7 White 1.2 37.6 64.7 61.6 0.0 0.0 --OTHER-- (in thousand metric tons) Soyoil 15.7 108.0 821.6 922.2 5.0 41.7 Soymeal 99.8 849.4 10,403.8 9,984.7 78.6 4,373.7 Rice 47.8 449.5 555.5 461.1 3.5 19.2

Est. Proj.2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014-2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015



Total Supply 10578 11190 12776 13237 12510 14362 13729 14774 14182 13517 11929 14781 15243



Total Use 9491 10232 10662 11270 11206 12737 12056 13066 13055 12528 11108 13600 13435





Corn Futures 8/25/14

C - CORN - CBOT

Month Last Change Open High Low Close

Sep 14 363'4 -2'0 363'4 364'2 361'2 365'4

Dec 14 369'4 -2'0 369'4 370'2 367'0 371'4

Mar 15 382'2 -2'0 382'4 383'0 380'0 384'2

May 15 390'2 -1'6 390'0 390'2 387'6 392'0

Jul 15 397'2 -1'2 396'6 397'2 394'6 398'4

Sep 15 402'0 -2'6 401'0 403'2 401'0 404'6

Dec 15 408'6 -2'4 410'0 410'0 407'4 411'2

Mar 16 417'0 -2'4 418'6 418'6 416'2 419'4

8/25/14 Dec 2014 Corn Futures

Dec 2014 Corn Futures

July 2015 Corn Futures

Monthly Wheat Futures

8/21/14 Dec 2014 Wheat Futures

USDA-NASS 8-12-14

Crop UnitAugust

2014

% Change from Previous Forecast

% Change from

Previous Season

Winter Wheat

Harvested Mil Ac 32.4 NC + <0.1

Yield Bu/Ac 43.1 +2.1 -9.1

Production Bil Bu 1.40 +2.1 -9.0

Other Spring

Harvested Mil Ac 12.4 NC +9.4

Yield Bu/Ac 46.1 +1.3 -2.1

Production Mil Bu 572 +1.4 +7.3

Durum

Harvested Mil Ac 1.42 NC -0.2

Yield Bu/Ac 42.7 +1.4 -2.1

Production Mil Bu 60.5 +1.5 -2.3

All Wheat

Production Bil Bu 2.03 +1.9 -4.7


USDA-NASS 8-12-14

Winter Wheat Yield - August 1, 2014 Bushels and Change From Previous Month

62-4

63-3

44-3

83-2

66-1

62#NC

85#NC

55NC

67#NC

28NC 70

NC

63NC

55NC

42NC

59NC17

NC 51NC

U.S. 43.10.9

# Record High

NC = No Change

68NC

561

261

652

733

683

504

73#5 70

5

455

426

74#6

USDA-NASS 8-12-14

Other Spring Wheat Yield - August 1, 2014Bushels and Change From Previous Month

783

U.S. 46.10.6 # Record High

NC = No Change

542

34-1 47#

1

63NC

463

50-5

U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand

August 12, 2014

2013/14 estimate

2014/15 forecast

Change from July 11

Change from 2013/14

Percent PercentPlanted area (million acres) 56.2 56.5 0.0 0.6Harvested area (million acres) 45.2 46.2 0.0 2.4Yield (bushels per acre) 47.2 43.9 1.9 -7.0

Million bushelsBeginning stocks 718 590 0.0 -17.9Production 2,130 2,030 1.9 -4.7Imports 169 160 0.0 -5.1Total supply 3,016 2,779 1.4 -7.9

Food use 950 960 0.0 1.1Seed 77 76 0.0 -1.0Feed and residual 223 155 6.9 -30.6Domestic use 1,250 1,191 0.8 -4.7

Exports 1,176 925 2.8 -21.4Total use 2,426 2,116 1.7 -12.8

Ending stocks 590 663 0.4 12.5Percent


Average market price 6.87 5.80/6.80 -4.5 -8.3

Est. Proj.2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014-2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

(Million Acres)Acres Planted 62.1 59.7 57.2 57.3 60.5 63.2 59.2 53.6 54.4 55.7 56.2 56.5Acres Harvested 53.1 50.0 50.1 46.8 51.0 55.7 49.9 47.6 45.7 48.9 45.2 46.2Bu./Harvested Acre 44.2 43.2 42.0 38.6 40.2 44.9 44.5 46.3 43.7 46.3 47.2 43.9

(Million Bushels)Beginning Stocks 491 546 540 571 456 306 657 976 862 743 718 590Production 2345 2158 2105 1808 2051 2499 2218 2207 1999 2266 2130 2030Imports 68 71 82 122 113 127 119 97 112 123 169 160

Total Supply 2904 2775 2727 2501 2620 2932 2993 3279 2974 3131 3016 2779Use:Food 907 910 915 938 948 927 919 926 941 945 950 960Seed 80 78 78 82 88 78 69 71 76 73 77 76Feed and Residual 212 182 160 117 16 255 150 132 162 384 223 155

Total Domestic 1194 1169 1152 1137 1051 1260 1138 1128 1180 1401 1250 1191 Exports 1159 1066 1003 908 1263 1015 879 1289 1051 1012 1176 925

Total Use 2353 2235 2155 2045 2314 2275 2018 2417 2231 2414 2426 2116

Ending Stocks 546 540 571 456 306 657 976 862 743 718 590 663Ending Stocks, %of Use 23.2 24.2 26.5 22.3 13.2 28.9 48.3 35.7 33.3 29.7 24.3 31.3

U.S. Loan Rate $2.80 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75

U.S. Season Ave U.S. $/Bu. $3.40 $3.40 $3.42 $4.26 $6.48 $6.78 $4.87 $5.70 $7.24 $7.77 $6.87 $6.30 Michigan $/Bu. $3.35 $3.01 $3.13 $3.41 $5.01 $5.63 $4.25 $5.72 $6.70 $7.75 $6.70 $5.35

Source: USDA/WASDE and Jim Hilker (8 - 12 - 2014)

TABLE 2SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE SHEET FOR WHEAT

World Wheat Production

August 12, 2014

Country or Region2013/14 estimate

2014/15 forecast

Change from July 11

Change from 2013/14


World 714.1 716.1 1.5 0.3United States 58.0 55.2 1.9 -4.7

Foreign 656.1 660.9 1.5 0.7Argentina 10.5 12.5 0.0 19.0Canada 37.5 28.0 0.0 -25.3Australia 27.0 26.0 0.0 -3.8European Union 143.1 147.9 0.0 3.3Russia 52.1 59.0 11.3 13.3Ukraine 22.3 22.0 4.8 -1.2Kazakhstan 13.9 13.5 0.0 -3.2China 121.9 126.0 1.6 3.3India 93.5 95.9 0.0 2.5

Pcp/Temp Critical

Same is true in southwestern Russia, where timely showers benefited reproductive to

filling winter wheat.

Data courtesy of OGIMET

NWS/WMONWS/WMO

August 12, 2014

Pcp/Temp Critical

Little – if any – heat stress was noted in the key winter wheat Krasnodar Oblast in sw Russia

August 12, 2014

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production

Area Output Yield

Are

a (M

ha) a

nd O

utpu

t (M

MT)

Yiel

d (T

/Ha)

Estimated production is increased this from 53 to 59 million tons based on an outstanding winter-

wheat harvest. Yield is estimated at a record level.

August 12, 2014

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING 8/14/2014 New Crop Weekly Prev Weekly Sales Unshipped Total Year Sales Unshipped --GRAINS-- (in million bushels) Corn 3.9 151.4 1,918.0 752.2 28.3 364.3 Sorghum 0.3 30.0 197.5 63.7 4.2 42.3 Soybeans -3.3 68.0 1,693.5 1,366.1 52.2 717.0 All Wheat 7.7 7.9 399.4 536.6 0.0 1.4 Durum 0.0 0.2 6.9 5.7 0.0 0.0 Hard Red Spring 2.1 2.5 126.0 90.0 0.0 0.0 Hard Red Winter -0.9 57.9 120.6 182.7 0.0 0.7 Soft Red Winter 5.3 46.8 81.1 196.6 0.0 0.7 White 1.2 37.6 64.7 61.6 0.0 0.0 --OTHER-- (in thousand metric tons) Soyoil 15.7 108.0 821.6 922.2 5.0 41.7 Soymeal 99.8 849.4 10,403.8 9,984.7 78.6 4,373.7 Rice 47.8 449.5 555.5 461.1 3.5 19.2 (in thousand bales) Upland Cotton 155.6 4,516.7 4,716.8 3,309.9 0.0 374.0

World Wheat Supply and Use

August 12, 2014

2013/14 estimate

2014/15 forecast

Change from July 11

Change from 2013/14


Beginning stocks 175.6 183.7 -0.3 4.6Production 714.1 716.1 1.5 0.3Total Supply 889.7 899.8 1.2 1.1

Feed use 132.4 134.6 4.0 1.7Total use 706.0 706.8 1.0 0.1

Trade 165.3 151.8 0.1 -8.2Ending Stocks 183.7 193.0 1.8 5.1

U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand

August 12, 2014

2013/14 estimate

2014/15 forecast

Change from July 11

Change from 2013/14

Percent PercentPlanted area (million acres) 56.2 56.5 0.0 0.6Harvested area (million acres) 45.2 46.2 0.0 2.4Yield (bushels per acre) 47.2 43.9 1.9 -7.0

Million bushelsBeginning stocks 718 590 0.0 -17.9Production 2,130 2,030 1.9 -4.7Imports 169 160 0.0 -5.1Total supply 3,016 2,779 1.4 -7.9

Food use 950 960 0.0 1.1Seed 77 76 0.0 -1.0Feed and residual 223 155 6.9 -30.6Domestic use 1,250 1,191 0.8 -4.7

Exports 1,176 925 2.8 -21.4Total use 2,426 2,116 1.7 -12.8

Ending stocks 590 663 0.4 12.5Percent


Average market price 6.87 5.80/6.80 -4.5 -8.3

Est. Proj.2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014-2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

(Million Acres)Acres Planted 62.1 59.7 57.2 57.3 60.5 63.2 59.2 53.6 54.4 55.7 56.2 56.5Acres Harvested 53.1 50.0 50.1 46.8 51.0 55.7 49.9 47.6 45.7 48.9 45.2 46.2Bu./Harvested Acre 44.2 43.2 42.0 38.6 40.2 44.9 44.5 46.3 43.7 46.3 47.2 43.9

(Million Bushels)Beginning Stocks 491 546 540 571 456 306 657 976 862 743 718 590Production 2345 2158 2105 1808 2051 2499 2218 2207 1999 2266 2130 2030Imports 68 71 82 122 113 127 119 97 112 123 169 160

Total Supply 2904 2775 2727 2501 2620 2932 2993 3279 2974 3131 3016 2779Use:Food 907 910 915 938 948 927 919 926 941 945 950 960Seed 80 78 78 82 88 78 69 71 76 73 77 76Feed and Residual 212 182 160 117 16 255 150 132 162 384 223 155

Total Domestic 1194 1169 1152 1137 1051 1260 1138 1128 1180 1401 1250 1191 Exports 1159 1066 1003 908 1263 1015 879 1289 1051 1012 1176 925

Total Use 2353 2235 2155 2045 2314 2275 2018 2417 2231 2414 2426 2116

Ending Stocks 546 540 571 456 306 657 976 862 743 718 590 663Ending Stocks, %of Use 23.2 24.2 26.5 22.3 13.2 28.9 48.3 35.7 33.3 29.7 24.3 31.3

U.S. Loan Rate $2.80 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75

U.S. Season Ave U.S. $/Bu. $3.40 $3.40 $3.42 $4.26 $6.48 $6.78 $4.87 $5.70 $7.24 $7.77 $6.87 $6.30 Michigan $/Bu. $3.35 $3.01 $3.13 $3.41 $5.01 $5.63 $4.25 $5.72 $6.70 $7.75 $6.70 $5.35

Source: USDA/WASDE and Jim Hilker (8 - 12 - 2014)

TABLE 2SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE SHEET FOR WHEAT

@W - WHEAT - CBOT


Sep 14 551'6 -0'2 551'0 553'0 546'4 552'0

Dec 14 562'4 0'2 560'2 565'0 556'6 562'2

Mar 15 581'0 0'6 575'2 582'4 575'2 580'2

May 15 591'4 2'2 587'6 592'4 587'6 589'2

Jul 15 599'4 3'4 592'6 600'6 592'2 596'0

Sep 15 610'0 4'2 610'0 610'0 610'0 605'6

@KW - HARD RED WINTER WHEAT - KCBT


Sep 14 634'6 1'2 632'0 635'4 629'2 633'4

Dec 14 644'0 0'0 643'0 646'4 639'0 644'0

8/21/14 Dec 2014 Wheat Futures

Dec 2014 Wheat Futures

SOYBEAN OUTLOOK

Monthly Soybean Futures

Nov 2014 Soybean Futures

Est. Proj.2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014-2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

(Million Acres)Acres Planted 74 73.4 75.2 72 75.5 64.7 75.7 77.5 77.4 75.0 77.2 76.5 84.8Acres Harvested 72.5 72.3 74.0 71.3 74.6 64.1 74.7 76.4 76.6 73.8 76.2 75.9 84.1Yield/Bushels 38.0 33.9 42.2 43.0 42.9 41.7 39.7 44.0 43.5 41.9 39.8 43.3 45.4

(Million Bushels)Beginning Stocks 208 178 112 256 449 574 205 138 151 215 169 141 140Production 2756 2454 3124 3063 3197 2677 2967 3359 3329 3094 3034 3289 3816Imports 5 6 6 3 9 10 13 15 14 16 41 80 15

Total Supply 2969 2638 3242 3322 3656 3261 3185 3512 3495 3325 3243 3509 3971

Use:Crushings 1615 1530 1696 1739 1808 1803 1662 1752 1648 1703 1689 1725 1755Exports 1045 885 1097 940 1116 1159 1279 1499 1501 1365 1317 1640 1675Seed 89 92 88 93 80 93 90 90 87 90 89 99 92Residual 41 19 105 101 77 0 16 20 43 -2 8 -94 19

Total Use 2791 2526 2986 2873 3081 3056 3047 3361 3280 3155 3103 3369 3541


U.S. Loan Rate $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00

U.S. Season AveFarm Price, $/Bu. $5.53 $7.34 $5.74 $5.66 $6.43 $10.10 $9.97 $9.59 $11.30 $12.50 $14.40 $13.00 $10.35


SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE SHEET FOR SOYBEANS

USDA-NASS 8-12-14

Crop UnitAugust

2014

% Change from

Previous Forecast

% Change from

Previous Season

Soybeans

Planted Mil Ac 84.8 NC +10.9

Harvested Mil Ac 84.1 NC +10.8

Yield Bu/Ac 45.4 --- +4.8

Production Bil Bu 3.82 --- +16.0


USDA-NASS 8-12-14

U.S. Soybean Yield

45.4

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Bushels/Acre

USDA-NASS 8-12-14

Soybean Yields, August 1, 2014Bushels and Change From Previous Year

41-2

46#2.5

422

37-3

54#5

51NC

505.5

36NC 40

-9.5

50#2

445

44NC

421

48#3

448.5

52-1

401

49#1

374

322

49#NC

311

49#NC

291

U.S. 45.4#

2.1

# Record High

NC = No Change

40NC

44-2

272

402

435

USDA-NASS 8-12-14

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0

3.12 3.07

3.20

2.68

2.97

3.36 3.33

3.093.03

3.29

3.82

U.S. Soybean Production

Billion bushels

Est. Proj.2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014-2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015



Total Supply 2969 2638 3242 3322 3656 3261 3185 3512 3495 3325 3243 3509 3971


Total Use 2791 2526 2986 2873 3081 3056 3047 3361 3280 3155 3103 3369 3541


U.S. Loan Rate $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00




2012/13

2013/14 Est. 2014/15 Proj.Jul

Ju ly

F ille r F ille r F ille r

Million Pounds

2540 1705 163519820 20215 20270

196 165 16022555 22085 2206518687 18750 18200

4689 4800 480013998 13950 13400

2164 1850 210020850 20600 20300

1705 1485 176547.13 38.5 36.00 - 40.00

T o ta l

Use, Total 20300Ending stocks 1615Avg. Price (c/lb) 2/ 35.00 - 39.00

Biodiesel 3/ 4800 Food, Feed & other Industrial 13400Exports 2100

Imports 160 Supply, Total 21915Domestic Disappearance 18200

Beginning Stocks 1485Production 4/ 20270

SOYBEAN OIL

A u g u st

F ille r

F ille r

Aug

2014/15 Proj.

August 2014WASDE - 532 - 15

U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/

2012/13

2013/14 Est. 2014/15 Proj.Jul

1 2 3

Thousand Short Tons300 275 300

39875 41010 41685245 265 165

40420 41550 4215028969 29600 3010011176 11650 1175040145 41250 41850

275 300 300468.11 470 350.00 - 390.00Avg. Price ($/s.t.) 2/ 340.00 - 380.00

T o ta l

Exports 11750 Use, Total 41850Ending Stocks 300

Imports 165 Supply, Total 42150Domestic Disappearance 30100

Beginning Stocks 300Production 4/ 41685

F ille r

4

SOYBEAN MEALAug

2014/15 Proj.

August 2014WASDE - 532 - 15

U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/

December 2014 Soybean Meal Futures

Est. Proj.2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014-2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015



Total Supply 2969 2638 3242 3322 3656 3261 3185 3512 3495 3325 3243 3509 3971


Total Use 2791 2526 2986 2873 3081 3056 3047 3361 3280 3155 3103 3369 3541


U.S. Loan Rate $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00




World Soybean Production

August 12, 2014

Country or Region

2013/14 estimate

2014/15 forecast

Change from July 11

Change from 2013/14


World 283.9 304.7 0.0 7.3United States 89.5 103.8 0.4 16.0

Foreign 194.4 200.8 -0.3 3.3Argentina 54.0 54.0 0.0 0.0Brazil 87.5 91.0 0.0 4.0Paraguay 8.1 8.2 0.0 1.2Ukraine 2.8 3.5 0.0 26.2India 11.0 11.0 -5.2 0.0China 12.2 12.0 0.0 -1.6

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING 8/14/2014 New Crop Weekly Prev Weekly Sales Unshipped Total Year Sales Unshipped --GRAINS-- (in million bushels) Corn 3.9 151.4 1,918.0 752.2 28.3 364.3 Sorghum 0.3 30.0 197.5 63.7 4.2 42.3 Soybeans -3.3 68.0 1,693.5 1,366.1 52.2 717.0 All Wheat 7.7 7.9 399.4 536.6 0.0 1.4 Durum 0.0 0.2 6.9 5.7 0.0 0.0 Hard Red Spring 2.1 2.5 126.0 90.0 0.0 0.0 Hard Red Winter -0.9 57.9 120.6 182.7 0.0 0.7 Soft Red Winter 5.3 46.8 81.1 196.6 0.0 0.7 White 1.2 37.6 64.7 61.6 0.0 0.0 --OTHER-- (in thousand metric tons) Soyoil 15.7 108.0 821.6 922.2 5.0 41.7 Soymeal 99.8 849.4 10,403.8 9,984.7 78.6 4,373.7 Rice 47.8 449.5 555.5 461.1 3.5 19.2 (in thousand bales) Upland Cotton 155.6 4,516.7 4,716.8 3,309.9 0.0 374.0

Brazil Soybean Supply and Use

2012/13 2013/14 2014/15Est. Proj.

Beginning Stocks 13.02 15.33 17.11Production 82.00 87.50 91.00Imports 0.40 0.55 0.50 Total Supply 95.42 103.38 108.61

Domestic Crush 35.24 37.00 37.10DomesticTotal 38.19 39.98 40.10Exports 41.90 46.30 45.00 Total Use 80.09 86.28 85.10

Ending Stocks 15.33 17.10 23.51

Aug. 2014

ArgentinaSoybean Supply and Use

2012/13 2013/14 2014/15Est. Proj.



Ending Stocks 22.40 28.62 32.23

Aug. 2014

BeginningStocks

Production Imports DomesticTotal

Exports EndingStocks

9.65 180.95 53.76 177.3 57.82 9.240.27 36.17 0.22 26.28 10.14 0.259.37 144.78 53.54 151.02 47.68 8.996.25 61.2 0.04 19.33 41.26 6.892.92 26.09 0 1.6 23.67 3.743.2 27.31 0.03 14.2 13.24 3.1

0.13 7.8 0.01 3.53 4.35 0.051.48 13.9 31.18 45.05 0.57 0.930.37 10.19 16.94 26.89 0.54 0.080.9 2.26 12.47 14.81 0.04 0.78

B e g i n n i n g

S t o c k s P r o d u c t i o n I m p o r t s

D o m e s t i c

T o t a l E x p o r t s

E n d i n g

S t o c k s

9.24 189.7 57.64 184.93 61.45 10.20.25 37.2 0.24 26.85 10.57 0.278.99 152.5 57.4 158.07 50.88 9.936.89 64.21 0.03 20.13 43.7 7.33.74 28.83 0 1.8 27 3.773.1 28.5 0.03 14.5 13.8 3.33

0.05 6.88 0.01 3.83 2.9 0.210.93 13.91 34.09 47.22 0.42 1.30.08 9.94 18.7 27.97 0.35 0.40.78 2.47 13.35 15.73 0.07 0.81

Brazil India Major Importers 4/ European Union Southeast Asia 5/

World 2/United StatesTotal Foreign Major Exporters 3/ Argentina

India Major Importers 4/ European Union Southeast Asia 5/

2013/14 Est.

World 2/United StatesTotal Foreign Major Exporters 3/ Argentina Brazil

World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/

(Million Metric Tons)

2012/13

BeginningStocks

Production Imports DomesticTotal

Exports EndingStocks

3.87 42.89 8.43 42.33 9.32 3.55

1.15 8.99 0.09 8.48 0.98 0.77

2.71 33.9 8.34 33.85 8.34 2.77

0.88 15.44 0.4 9.47 6.51 0.74

0.32 6.36 0.09 2.28 4.24 0.26

0.41 6.76 0.01 5.54 1.25 0.38

0.15 2.32 0.3 1.65 1.01 0.1

1.08 13.78 3.88 17.15 0.16 1.43

0.62 11.63 1.41 12.55 0.08 1.02

0.36 1.74 1.09 2.91 0 0.28

0.1 0.41 1.39 1.69 0.08 0.13

B e g i n n i n g

S t o c k s P r o d u c t i o n I m p o r t s

D o m e s t i c

T o t a l E x p o r t s

E n d i n g

S t o c k s

3.55 44.96 8.88 44.57 9.53 3.27

0.77 9.17 0.08 8.51 0.84 0.67

2.77 35.79 8.81 36.07 8.7 2.6

0.74 16.4 0.32 10.07 6.64 0.75

0.26 7.03 0 2.62 4.42 0.25

0.38 7.1 0 5.68 1.42 0.38

0.1 2.27 0.32 1.77 0.8 0.12

1.43 14.3 4.23 18.5 0.18 1.28

1.02 12.32 1.25 13.51 0.1 0.99

0.28 1.54 1.55 3.22 0 0.15

0.13 0.44 1.43 1.77 0.08 0.15 North Africa 5/

Argentina

Brazil

European Union

Major Importers 4/

China

India

2013/14 Est.

World 2/

United States

Total Foreign

Major Exporters 3/

European Union

Major Importers 4/

China

India

North Africa 5/

World 2/

United States

Total Foreign

Major Exporters 3/

Argentina

Brazil

August 2014

WASDE - 532 - 30

World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/

(Million Metric Tons)

2012/13

China Soybean Supply and Use

2012/13 2013/14 2014/15Est. Proj.


Domestic Crush 64.95 68.75 73.50DomesticTotal 76.18 80.05 84.90Exports 0.27 0.24 0.30

Total Use 76.45 80.29 85.20Ending Stocks 12.38 13.29 13.09

Aug. 2014

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use

2012/13 2013/14 2014/15Est. Proj.



Ending Stocks 3.82 3.82 11.71

World Soybean Supply and Use

2012/13 2013/14 2014/15Est. Proj.


Domestic Crush 229.57 240.80 250.90DomesticTotal 259.89 269.80 283.40Exports 100.53 112.73 113.32

Total Use 360.42 382.53 396.72

Ending Stocks 56.82 67.10 85.61

Aug. 2014

Est. Proj.2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014-2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015



Total Supply 2969 2638 3242 3322 3656 3261 3185 3512 3495 3325 3243 3509 3971


Total Use 2791 2526 2986 2873 3081 3056 3047 3361 3280 3155 3103 3369 3541


U.S. Loan Rate $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00




Soybean Futures 8/25/14

S - SOYBEANS - CBOT

Month Last Change Open High Low Close Time

Sep 14 1172'6 6'6 1161'4 1173'0 1159'4 1166'0 06:22A

Nov 14 1036'2 -5'6 1035'2 1037'0 1032'4 1042'0 06:23A

Jan 15 1042'0 -6'6 1043'0 1043'6 1039'4 1048'6 06:23A

Mar 15 1048'4 -6'4 1050'2 1050'2 1046'0 1055'0 06:22A

May 15 1052'4 -7'0 1054'0 1054'0 1050'6 1059'4 06:23A

Jul 15 1058'0 -4'4 1059'0 1059'0 1054'2 1062'4 06:22A

Aug 15 1055'6 -5'4 1053'6 1055'6 1053'6 1061'2 06:22A

Sep 15 1053'2

1051'2

Nov 15 1044'0 -4'0 1043'4 1045'0 1040'0 1048'0 06:22A

Jan 16 1051'4 2'2 1051'4 1051'4 1051'4 1052'6s 06:22A

Nov 2014 Soybean Futures

Nov 2014 Soybean Futures 8/21/14

July 2015 Soybean Futures 8/21/14

Jim Hilker’s Web Pagehttp://www.msu.edu/user/hilker/

Thanks

Questions/Discussion

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