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Crisis of mobility

What the Union budget should do

Centre for Science and Environment

January 16, 2008

2

In the beginning of this winter we said Delhi has taken major steps to clean up its air……….

…..and yet its air is getting dirty again

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2000-04: Delhi made the first quantum leap but it is still struggling…

On fuel qualityIntroduced low sulphur fuels and petrol with 1 per cent benzene Mandated pre-mix petrol to two- and three-wheelers

On vehicle technologyEnforced Bharat staae II emissions standards in 2000, five years ahead of schedule (BS III in 2005)

On alternative fuelsImplemented largest ever CNG programmeLargest ever public transport bus fleet on natural gas

Other cross cutting policy measuresCapped the number of three-wheelersPhased out 15 year old commercial vehiclesStrengthened vehicle inspection programme (PUC)Efforts made to bypass transit trafficSet up independent fuel testing laboratories to check fuel adulteration

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Winter of 2007. Its smog. Still air, dust, smoke, low visibility…lungs are choked again…

Source: CSEi

240.5

338.1

104070

100130160190220250280310340

Aug 07 - Oct 07

mic

rogr

am/c

ubic

met

re

PM2.5 NO2 SO2

Daily average levels Monitoring at ITO, Delhi (Aug to October 2007)

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Deadly particles: After a short respite the curve turns upward

Source:CSE

RSPM

0

60

120

180

Res. Areas Ind. Areas

mic

rogr

am/ c

ubic

met

re

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

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NOx levels: rising steadily

Source:CSE

NOx

0

10

20

30

40

50

Res. Areas Ind. Areas

mic

rog

ram

/ cu

bic

me

tre

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

NAAQS (R) 60 microgram per cubicmetre

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Air pollution is now a national crisis

96

70

4

30

19

23

57

10%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

SO2 NO2 PM10

Num

ber

of c

ities

in p

er c

ent

Critical Pollution Level* (More than 90 microgramme per cubic metre)

High Pollution Level* (60 to 90 microgramme per cubic metre)

Moderate Pollution Level* (30 to 60 microgramme per cubic metre)

Low Pollution Level* (0 to 29 microgramme per cubic metre)

Air Quality Classification:

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It is time…

…we understood the crisis of numbers……

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Our tax proposal for sustainable mobility……..

Our proposal to the Finance Minister………

1) Remove central excise duty on buses and provide guidance to the state governments to correct the current distortions which tax the bus more than the cars…

2) Do not reduce the current excise duty on cars and SUVs and also maintain the differential between small and big vehicles

3) Increase the excise duty on diesel cars to provide the needed disincentive for the growth of personal vehicles on cheap diesel

4) Revise the central excise duties to link to fuel efficiency and advanced clean emissions norms once the fuel economy standards for vehicles are in place

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1) Why zero excise on buses?

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0.2

0.2 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.8 3

.8

8.0

17

.2

27

.5

45

.6

61

.4

0.1

0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.6 2.6 4

.2 6.3

9.4 1

1.3

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

1951, 1956, 1961, 1966, 1971, 1976, 1981, 1986, 1991, 1996, 2001, 2004,

in m

illio

ns

Two wheelers, car, jeeps and taxis Other vehicles

It took 30 years to reach the first million mark for personal vehicles in 1971.

Another 20 years to add two more million

Then in 10 years (1981-91) increased by 14 million

Another 10 years (1991-2001) – jumped by 28 million

This decade just in four years (2001 to 2004) we have added 16 million

Explosive numbers

Source: Computed on the basis of MOSRTH motor vehicle registration data

Vehicle registration in India: India’s urban population has grown 4.6 times, vehicle numbers have increased 158 times

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In 1951, buses were 11 per cent of total registration. By 2004 roughly 1 per cent

and dropping each day…Share of Tw o - w heelers, Cars and jeeps (1991-2004)

66.44 68.82 68.92 69.24 69.81 69.83 70.11 70.57 70.92 71.40

13.82 12.44 12.51 12.42 12.38 12.57 12.83 12.92 12.83 13.00

1.55

1.33 1.30 1.301.20 1.15 1.15

1.08 1.08 1.06

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

1991 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

valu

es in

per

cent

age

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

valu

es in

per

cent

age

Tw o w heelers Cars and Jeeps Buses

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Take Delhi: adds 1000 vehicles each day on its roads..Builds new roads; then expands old; then flyovers, now planning flyovers over flyovers…..

Source: Teri

231333

564 580

308

654

963 994

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Cars Tw o w heelers Total privatevehicles

Total vehicles(private

+commercial)

No

of r

egis

tere

d ve

hicl

es p

er d

ay

2000-01 2005-06

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Where is the space for more cars?

Availability of Road Length in Delhi

1922 1922

20702087

2103 21038.457.88 7.9

7.446.98

6.46

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004 - 2005 2005 - 2006

in k

ilom

eter

s

1800

1850

1900

1950

2000

2050

2100

2150

in k

ilom

eter

s

Average length of road per 100 square kilometers Road length per thousand vehicles ( in kilometers)

Between 1996 and 2006 total road length in Delhi has increased by about 20 per cent. But cars increased by 132 per cent

Delhi has 21 per cent of its area under roads; only quarter of its population own cars; cars and two-wheelers together drive less than 20 per cent of its people -- and yet roads are choked

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0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000

Dhola Kuan to Raja Garden

Raja Garden to Azadpur

Azadpur to I.S.B.T.

I.S.B.T. to B.S.Gurudwara

B.S.Gurudwara to AIIMS

AIIMS to Dhola Kuan

PCU per hour

1990 2004

Peak volume traffic has increased phenomenally Nearly 123 per cent growth on many roads (in PCU/hour)

Source: Based on City Development Plan of Delhi, 2006, Eco Smart

Choked…..Choked…..

Other road segments

Peak designed capacity (PCU per hour)

Actual Peak volume (PCU per hour) in 2002

Dhaula Kuan to Raja Garden

8004 10726

B. S Gurudwara to AIIMS

10959 12493

AIIMS to Dhaula Kuan

10981 13617Source: IL&FS 2004 as quoted in CDP Delhi

Traffic volume exceeds the designed capacity of most of the capital’s key arterial roads.

NH8 (Delhi-Gurgaon) is designed for a peak traffic volume of 160,000 vehicles by 2015. There are already 130,000 vehicles fighting for space!

Crawling traffic in Delhi: Average vehicular speed drops from 20-27 km/hr in 1997 to only 15 km/hr in 2002.

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Result congestion….

Peak hour traffic speed plummets…It can be as low as 10 hours per hour in Delhi, or 7 km per hour in Kolkata…

Congestion costs can be as high as Rs 3000 to 4000 per year.

ASSOCHAM study: the commuting population could be losing Rs 420 million human hours in congestion. Each day 2.5 hours are lost in commuting to destinations.

………But Budget does not reflect these costs

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Vehicle Emissions vis-à-vis Speed

Vehicles caught in congestion emit several times more

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Why this crisis?

Public transport marginalised…….

Over the years share of public transport buses in the total vehicle fleet dwindles drastically from 11 per cent to 1.1 per cent.

But buses meet 60 per cent of the travel demand while they use up less than 5 per cent of the road space

Cars occupy 75 percent of the road space but meet less than 20 per cent of the commuting demand. Half of our population are too poor, young, disabled, and old to use cars.

It hurts poorer households that spend greater share of their income on transport. Also overall, greater share of household income is being spent on transport…

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MODAL SHARE BY VOLUME AND PASSENGERS CARRIED AT AMBEDKAR NAGAR

8

61

75

20

17 19

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

% PCU % of Passengers carried

NMV

MVBus

Volume of bus and bicycle traffic is significant and growing

Non Non motorised motorised vehiclesvehicles

Motorised Motorised vehiclesvehicles

BUSBUS

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Public transport marginalised…….Impact of motorisation can be severe in smaller cities where public transport is inadequate

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Ahm

edab

ad

Kolka

ta

Delh

i

Hyde

raba

d

Luck

now

Chen

nai

Pune

Bus Car, Taxi, two-wheelers Three-wheelers Rickshaw Cycle

Share of public transport in different cities

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Wrong policies discourage buses

2,90,431

30,521

2,725

5.69

2.39

0.44

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

Two wheeler Cars Bus0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Total annual tax per vehicle Total tax per vehicle-km

Tax per vehicle-km

Annual tax

Total tax burden per vehicle kilometer is 2.6 times higher for buses than cars in India, says the World Bank.

Tax correction can encourage buses

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Subsidy for the rich car owners…

State taxes are even harsher…..

In Delhi if lifetime tax is amortised for the life of the vehicles then the owner pays roughly Rs 300 as taxes per year. But buses pay for more for carrying passengers. They pay about Rs 13000 per year – 43 times more than cars. .

In Mumbai bus occupies one tenth of the road space per passenger compared to personal cars. Cars pay one time registration fee which is only 3.5 per cent of the value. Buses pay hefty annual passenger tax. Cars pay Rs 9000 for life and bus pays Rs 41000 every year.

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Bus-car policies in states: taxing the poor to subsidise the rich?

Name of the state

Estimated tax paid annually by two - wheelers

Estimated tax paid annually by cars (only petrol cars)

Estimated taxes paid annually by buses

Number of times the tax paid by buses exceeds a car

Haryana 33 100 27,000 270

Punjab 67 267

Delhi 53 533 13,765 26 Himachal Pradesh 80 533 27,000 50

Uttar Pradesh 107 667 1,970 30

Rajasthan 133 800 12,000 15

West Bengal 260 1980

Goa 187 933 12,420 13

Maharashtra 187 1067

Gujarat 100 1333

Chattisgarh 107 1333 97,200 73

Karnataka 187 2400 1,08,000* 45

Andhra Pradesh 240 2400

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Make it zero excise on buses……Make it zero excise on buses……

A complete waiver on central excise duty will stimulate investment and growth in the bus sector

This should go with the guidance to the state governments that they should also make similar moves to waive off the state taxes

State governments should be encouraged to raise funds through dedicated cess for public transport

Public transport can enable significant fuel savings. ADB study projects – Bangalore can save 21 per cent of the fuel consumption public share is increased from 62 per cent to 80 per cent.

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2) Do not reduce the current excise duty on cars and SUVs Maintain the differential between small and big vehicles….

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No further sops….

Already car owners are enjoying enormous hidden subsidies…

Paying pittance for road space and parking… If parking charges begin to reflect true cost of investments, parking fee could be as high as Rs 30 to 40 per hour. But actually pay Rs 10 at most. Most cities do not even charge for parking.

Do not reduce the current excise duties on cars and SUVs – 16 per cent on the small cars and 24 per cent on big cars and SUVs.

This differential in taxes for small and big cars must continue. Higher tax on big; lower on small cars.

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3) Increase the excise duty on diesel cars as disincentive for the growth of personal vehicles on cheap and toxic diesel

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DieselisedDiesel cars, jeep and vans in Delhi

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Num

bers

Diesel car Diesel Jeep Diesel Van

Agency Red alert on diesel exhaust

US EPA (2002)

Likely human carcinogen

CARB (1998) Toxic air contaminant

HEI (1995) Potential to cause cancer

NIOSH (1988) Potential occupational carcinogen

IARC (1989) Probable human carcinogen

WHO IPCS (1996)

Probable human carcinogen

1999: Diesel cars only 2% of the new car sales in Delhi. 2007: Diesel cars are 30% of new car sales2010: It is projected to be 50% of the sales

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Diesel cars: More losses

One diesel car emits as much NOx as 3 to 5 petrol cars; PM as much as 7 petrol cars

--- But Central government earns Rs 15.18/litre from every litre of petrol and Rs 5.20 per every litre of diesel.

-- Due to crude oil price hike oil companies lose Rs 3.64 per litre of diesel and Rs 1.72 on petrol

--- Lower excise concession on small diesel cars further adds to the subsidy

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Take away economic incentive for diesel……

Ideally price of diesel and petrol should be equalised…but unrealistic given the constraints of different economic groups…

…….But this is a loophole

Increase excise taxes on diesel cars to 32 per cent.

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4) Link taxes to fuel efficiency and advanced clean emissions norms once the fuel economy standards for vehicles are in place

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Use taxes to build markets for cleaner and efficient technologies

Government is working on mandatory fuel efficiency standards for vehicles. Bureau of Energy Efficiency has the mandate to finalise standards. In the future vehicle taxes should be revised so that they are linked to efficiency.

Grant tax concession to advanced and efficient technologies like hybrids, battery operated, alternative technologies which meet emissions standards before due date of implementation