Crisis Action Planning & the Commander’s Estimate Process 23 February 2001.
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Transcript of Crisis Action Planning & the Commander’s Estimate Process 23 February 2001.
Crisis Action Planning & the Commander’s Estimate
Process
23 February 2001
PurposePurpose
To present MPAT doctrine for crisis action To present MPAT doctrine for crisis action planning and the Commander’s Estimateplanning and the Commander’s Estimate
JP 3-0 JP 3-0 Doctrine for Joint OperationsDoctrine for Joint OperationsJP 5-00.2 JP 5-00.2 JTF Planning Guidance & Procedures JTF Planning Guidance & Procedures
CJCSM 3122.01CJCSM 3122.01 Joint Operation Planning & Execution Joint Operation Planning & Execution System (JOPES), Volume I (Planning System (JOPES), Volume I (Planning Policies & Procedures)Policies & Procedures)
CJCSM 3122.03CJCSM 3122.03 JOPES, Volume II (Planning Formats & JOPES, Volume II (Planning Formats & Guidance)Guidance)
ReferencesReferences
Six phase processSix phase process Key DocumentsKey Documents
– Warning & Alert OrdersWarning & Alert Orders– Commander’s EstimateCommander’s Estimate
Requires Concurrent andRequires Concurrent and Collaborative Planning Collaborative Planning
Key PointsKey Points
Develop a Military Course of Action
Crisis Action Planning (CAP) Procedures:Crisis Action Planning (CAP) Procedures:
Threat to national interestThreat to national interest
Develops rapidlyDevelops rapidly
MayMay require military response require military response
What is a Crisis?What is a Crisis?
Over 70 crisis events in past 10 yearsOver 70 crisis events in past 10 years
No OPLANs apply No OPLANs apply
Why CAP?Why CAP?
Rapid exchange of informationRapid exchange of information
Analysis of situations affecting possible COAsAnalysis of situations affecting possible COAs
Development of feasible COAsDevelopment of feasible COAs
Decisionmaking process to select best COAsDecisionmaking process to select best COAs
Coordination of plans and orders to implement Coordination of plans and orders to implement decisions madedecisions made
CAP Process FeaturesCAP Process Features
Crisis Action Planning ProcessCrisis Action Planning ProcessSTRAT. CDR/NCA Level
IISituationSituation
DevelopmentDevelopment
IIIICrisisCrisis
AssessmentAssessment
IVIVCOACOA
SelectionSelection
VIExecution
CTF Level CAP crisis action planningCOA course of action
Deployment Employment Transition Redeployment
PlanningPlanning Execution
IIIIIICOACOA
DevelopmentDevelopment
VVExecutionExecutionPlanningPlanning
FormJTF HQ CAPCAP
SITUATIONSITUATIONDEVELOPMENTDEVELOPMENT
CRISISCRISISASSESSMENTASSESSMENT
COACOADEVELOPMENTDEVELOPMENT
COACOASELECTIONSELECTION
EXECUTIONEXECUTIONPLANNINGPLANNING EXECUTIONEXECUTION
II IIII IIIIII IVIV VV VIVI
CTFCTFOPERATIONALOPERATIONAL
CTF HQCTF HQFORMATIONFORMATION
EXECUTEORDER
ALERT/PLANNINGORDER
AugmentationAugmentation
WARNING ORDER
CAT/OPTCAT/OPT
COMMANDER’SESTIMATE
WARNING ORDER
CJTF’sOPORD
HIGHCON/NCA’sASSESSMENT
COMMANDER’SESTIMATE
CINC’sOPORD
CAP ProcessCAP Process
Phase I: Situation DevelopmentPhase I: Situation Development
CRISISSTRAT CDR’S ASSESSMENTSTRAT CDR’S ASSESSMENT
Nature of the CrisisNature of the CrisisForces AvailableForces AvailableMajor ConstraintsMajor ConstraintsAction Being TakenAction Being TakenCOAs Being ConsideredCOAs Being Considered
NCA
STRAT COM
CTF Tasks in CAP, Phase ICTF Tasks in CAP, Phase I
IISituationSituation
DevelopmentDevelopment
• If CTF If CTF established, established, monitor situationmonitor situation• Prep to Prep to participate in the participate in the CAP processCAP process
Phase II: Crisis AssessmentPhase II: Crisis Assessment
CTF
WARNORD National InterestsNational InterestsNational ObjectivesNational ObjectivesCrisis DeterminationCrisis Determination
WARNORD
STRAT COM
NCA
II
SituationSituationDevelopmentDevelopment
IIIICrisisCrisis
AssessmentAssessment
• If CTF If CTF established, established, monitor situationmonitor situation• Prep to Prep to participate in the participate in the CAP processCAP process
• If CTF If CTF established, established, monitor situationmonitor situation• Review existing Review existing plans & area plans & area studiesstudies
CTF Tasks in CAP, Phase IICTF Tasks in CAP, Phase II
Warning Order Warning Order
• Guidance and Instructions Guidance and Instructions
• SituationSituation• C2 RelationshipsC2 Relationships
• Mission, Objective, and AssumptionsMission, Objective, and Assumptions• Allocate Forces and Trans AssetsAllocate Forces and Trans Assets
Phase III: COA DevelopmentPhase III: COA Development
NCA
COMMANDER’S COMMANDER’S ESTIMATEESTIMATE
COMMANDER’S COMMANDER’S ESTIMATEESTIMATE
WARNORDWARNORD
ACTIVATION / WARNING ACTIVATION / WARNING ORDERORDER
CTF
STRAT CDR
II
SituationSituationDevelopmentDevelopment
IIIICrisisCrisis
AssessmentAssessment
IIIIIICOACOA
DevelopmentDevelopment
FormFormCTF HQCTF HQ
STRAT CDR’S STRAT CDR’S WARNORDWARNORD
• If CTF If CTF established, established, monitor situationmonitor situation• Prep to Prep to participate in the participate in the CAP processCAP process
• If CTF If CTF established, established, monitor situationmonitor situation• Review existing Review existing plans & area plans & area studiesstudies
• Commence participation in the Commence participation in the CAP process as directed by STRAT CAP process as directed by STRAT CDRCDR
(CTF components may be activated (CTF components may be activated for planning)for planning)
CTF WARNORD to CTF CTF WARNORD to CTF componentscomponents• Conduct Commander’s Estimate Conduct Commander’s Estimate processprocess
CTF Tasks in CAP, Phase IIICTF Tasks in CAP, Phase III
CAP & The Commander’s CAP & The Commander’s Estimate ProcessEstimate Process
CCRRIISSIISS
IISituationSituation
DevelopmentDevelopment
IIIICrisisCrisis
AssessmentAssessment
IVIVCourse of Course of
ActionActionSelectionSelection
VVExecutionExecutionPlanningPlanning
WarningWarningOrderOrder
PlanningPlanningOrderOrder
AlertAlertOrderOrder
ExecuteExecuteOrderOrder
OPORD OPORD & &
TPFDDTPFDD
VIVIExecutionExecution
AND/ORAND/ORII
Mission Analysis/Mission Analysis/Restated MissionRestated Mission IIII
Course of ActionCourse of ActionDevelopmentDevelopment IIIIII
Analysis of OpposingAnalysis of OpposingCourses of ActionCourses of Action
IVIVComparison of OwnComparison of OwnCourses of ActionCourses of Action V
Commander’s
Decision
IIICourse of
ActionDevelopment
Commander’s Estimate ProcessCommander’s Estimate Process
Commander’s EstimateCommander’s EstimateThe The Commander’s EstimateCommander’s Estimate submitted by the supported submitted by the supported commander in response to a STRAT CDR’S Warning commander in response to a STRAT CDR’S Warning Order, provides the STRAT CDR with Order, provides the STRAT CDR with time-sensitive time-sensitive informationinformation for consideration by the NCA in meeting a for consideration by the NCA in meeting a crisis situation. Essentially, it reflects the supported crisis situation. Essentially, it reflects the supported commander’s commander’s analysisanalysis of the various COAs that may be of the various COAs that may be used to accomplish the mission and containsused to accomplish the mission and contains recommendationsrecommendations as to the best COA.as to the best COA.
Commander’s EstimateCommander’s Estimate
• COA Recommendation• Remarks
• MissionMission• Situation and Courses of Action (COA)Situation and Courses of Action (COA)
• Analysis of Opposing COAsAnalysis of Opposing COAs• Comparison of own COAsComparison of own COAs
Paragraph 1: Mission Statement
CTF Commander’s Restated Mission CTF Commander’s Restated Mission StatementStatement
List Essential TasksList Essential Tasks
Paragraph 2:Situation and Courses of Action
3 Subparagraphs(A) Considerations Affecting the Possible COAs(B) Crisis/Threat Analysis(C) Own COAs
Include Only Minimum Information Necessary to Support the
Recommendation
The STRAT CDR is Primarily Concerned With the Results, Not the Analysis
Considerations Affecting Considerations Affecting Possible COAsPossible COAs
AssumptionsAssumptions
Factors that effect Crisis•Weather•Terrain•Medical Conditions•NGO/PVO Support•Logistics•Time/Space Factors
Characteristics of the Combined Opns Area
• Topography• Hydrography• WX/Climate• Transportation• Telecommunications• Politics, Economics, etc.
Threat/Crisis FactorsThreat/Crisis Factors
These factors are those events that could These factors are those events that could occur and, if they do occur, will affect the occur and, if they do occur, will affect the accomplishment of the mission...accomplishment of the mission...
Development of Threat/Crisis Factors KeyDevelopment of Threat/Crisis Factors Key• What events can occur that will worsen the What events can occur that will worsen the
crisis?crisis?• Would these materially affect mission Would these materially affect mission
accomplishment?accomplishment?
Own COAsOwn COAs Normally limited to two or three COAsNormally limited to two or three COAs Forces requiredForces required Force providerForce provider DestinationDestination Required delivery datesRequired delivery dates Coordinated deployment estimateCoordinated deployment estimate Employment estimateEmployment estimate Strategic lift requirements, if appropriateStrategic lift requirements, if appropriate
Suitable, Feasible, Acceptable, & DistinguishableSuitable, Feasible, Acceptable, & Distinguishable
Paragraph 3:Paragraph 3:Analysis of Opposing COAsAnalysis of Opposing COAs
Paragraph 3 describes in some detail the results of Paragraph 3 describes in some detail the results of wargaming COAs during Crisis Action Planning. wargaming COAs during Crisis Action Planning. Description should illustrate that the commander Description should illustrate that the commander considered the most significant and influential factors, considered the most significant and influential factors, events, and consequences.events, and consequences.
MDCOAMDCOA MPCOAMPCOA
Normally the supporting tools (decision matrix) Normally the supporting tools (decision matrix) used in the analysis are not included in the final used in the analysis are not included in the final documentdocument
For the submission to the STRAT CDR, include For the submission to the STRAT CDR, include only the final statement of conclusionsonly the final statement of conclusions
Advantages and disadvantages if significant in Advantages and disadvantages if significant in assisting the STRAT CDR in arriving at a assisting the STRAT CDR in arriving at a decisiondecision
Paragraph 4:Paragraph 4:Comparison of Own COAsComparison of Own COAs
Comparison CriteriaComparison Criteria
May give the rationale used May give the rationale used by the commander in the by the commander in the
decision processdecision process
Supported Commander’s Supported Commander’s recommended COArecommended COA
Paragraph 5:Paragraph 5:Recommended COARecommended COA
Miscellaneous comments that bear Miscellaneous comments that bear directly on the operation planningdirectly on the operation planning
Paragraph 6: RemarksParagraph 6: Remarks
Forces required for a COA that are not Forces required for a COA that are not yet officially apportionedyet officially apportioned
Caveats to COAs if strategic or Caveats to COAs if strategic or operational situation changes operational situation changes
– Intervention of a third partyIntervention of a third party– Impact of a major disaster (volcano, flood, Impact of a major disaster (volcano, flood,
hurricane, etc.)hurricane, etc.)– Impending refugee problemImpending refugee problem
Recommended changes to ROERecommended changes to ROE
Commander’s EstimateCommander’s EstimateLessons LearnedLessons Learned
Don’t parrot the STRAT CDR’s Mission Don’t parrot the STRAT CDR’s Mission in the Mission Paragraphin the Mission Paragraph– Tailor to operational level missionTailor to operational level mission– Use to clarify and narrow the missionUse to clarify and narrow the mission
Avoid a complete historical discussion Avoid a complete historical discussion of the problem in Paragraph 2of the problem in Paragraph 2– Concentrate on recent or unfolding eventsConcentrate on recent or unfolding events– Don’t forget political or societal events that affect Don’t forget political or societal events that affect
the missionthe mission– Highlight approaching trigger events that would Highlight approaching trigger events that would
dramatically alter or accelerate eventsdramatically alter or accelerate events
Lessons Learned (Cont.)Lessons Learned (Cont.)
Keep COAs at operational levelKeep COAs at operational level– Avoid tactical details; work at component and Avoid tactical details; work at component and
major force levelmajor force level– Omit detail not critical to the general conceptOmit detail not critical to the general concept
Give each COA a short, descriptive Give each COA a short, descriptive namename– Massive force option, air option, low vis optionMassive force option, air option, low vis option
Don’t forget the end state and conflict Don’t forget the end state and conflict terminationtermination
Phase IV: COA SelectionPhase IV: COA SelectionCRISIS ACTION PROCEDURESCRISIS ACTION PROCEDURES
Begins: Recommended COA Begins: Recommended COA presented to the NCApresented to the NCA
Ends: NCA Decision in a Ends: NCA Decision in a Planning or Alert OrderPlanning or Alert Order
CTF ACTIONSCTF ACTIONS
• Staff Prepares PlanStaff Prepares Plan
• Force PreparationForce Preparation
• Deployability Posture Deployability Posture ReportsReports
• React to NCA/STRAT CDR React to NCA/STRAT CDR Modifications and ChangesModifications and Changes
• Refine Estimates and Refine Estimates and Resolves Identified ShortfallsResolves Identified Shortfalls
Major Focus of Activity is NCAMajor Focus of Activity is NCA
UNCLASSIFIEDUNCLASSIFIED
IISituationSituation
DevelopmentDevelopment
IIIICrisisCrisis
AssessmentAssessment
IVIVCOACOA
SelectionSelection
IIIIIICOACOA
DevelopmentDevelopment
FormFormCTF HQCTF HQ
STRAT CDR’s STRAT CDR’s WARNORDWARNORD
• If CTF If CTF established, established, monitor situationmonitor situation• Prep to Prep to participate in the participate in the CAP processCAP process
• If CTF If CTF established, established, monitor situationmonitor situation• Review existing Review existing plans & area plans & area studiesstudies
• Commence participation in the Commence participation in the CAP process as directed by STRAT CAP process as directed by STRAT CDRCDR
(CTF components may be activated (CTF components may be activated for planning)for planning)
CTF WARNORD to CTF CTF WARNORD to CTF componentscomponents• Conduct Commander’s Estimate Conduct Commander’s Estimate processprocess
• Prep for Prep for execution execution planningplanning•CTF CTF PLANORD PLANORD &/or &/or ALERTORD ALERTORD to CTF to CTF componentscomponents
STRAT CDR’s STRAT CDR’s PLANORD &/orPLANORD &/or
ALERTORDALERTORD
CTF Tasks in CAP, Phase IVCTF Tasks in CAP, Phase IV
CRISIS ACTION PROCEDURES CTF ACTIONSCRISIS ACTION PROCEDURES CTF ACTIONS
Begins: Receipt of Begins: Receipt of Planning or Alert OrderPlanning or Alert Order
Ends: Decision to ExecuteEnds: Decision to Execute(Execution Order)(Execution Order)
• Identify and Assign Tasks to Identify and Assign Tasks to Units Units
• Converts COA into OPORDConverts COA into OPORD• TPFDD UpdatedTPFDD Updated• Units May Begin DeploymentUnits May Begin Deployment• Service ReportingService Reporting• Review Force Support Review Force Support
Requirements Requirements• Resolve Shortfalls and Resolve Shortfalls and
Limitations Limitations• Complete country clearancesComplete country clearances
Phase V: Execution PlanningPhase V: Execution Planning
UNCLASSIFIEDUNCLASSIFIED
IISituationSituation
DevelopmentDevelopment
IIIICrisisCrisis
AssessmentAssessment
IVIVCOACOA
SelectionSelection
IIIIIICOACOA
DevelopmentDevelopment
VVExecutionExecutionPlanningPlanning
FormFormCTF HQCTF HQ
STRAT CDR’s STRAT CDR’s WARNORDWARNORD
• If CTF If CTF established, established, monitor situationmonitor situation• Prep to Prep to participate in the participate in the CAP processCAP process
• If CTF If CTF established, established, monitor situationmonitor situation• Review existing Review existing plans & area plans & area studiesstudies
• Commence participation in the Commence participation in the CAP process as directed by STRAT CAP process as directed by STRAT CDRCDR
(CTF components may be activated (CTF components may be activated for planning)for planning)
CTF WARNORD to CTF CTF WARNORD to CTF componentscomponents• Conduct Commander’s Estimate Conduct Commander’s Estimate processprocess
• Prep for Prep for execution execution planningplanning•CTF CTF PLANORD PLANORD &/or &/or ALERTORD ALERTORD to CTF to CTF componentscomponents
• Develop Develop OPORDOPORD•Develop Develop TPFDD reqtsTPFDD reqts• Validate Validate TPFDD reqts TPFDD reqts to STRAT to STRAT CDRCDR• Monitor Monitor TPFDD buildTPFDD build•Issue Issue OPORDOPORD
STRAT CDR’s STRAT CDR’s PLANORD &/orPLANORD &/or
ALERTORDALERTORD
STRAT CDR’s STRAT CDR’s OPORDOPORD
JTF Tasks in CAP, Phase VJTF Tasks in CAP, Phase V
CRISIS ACTION PROCEDURES CTF ACTIONSCRISIS ACTION PROCEDURES CTF ACTIONS
Begins: NCA Decision to Begins: NCA Decision to execute OPORDexecute OPORD
Ends: Crisis ResolvedEnds: Crisis Resolved
• NCA Publishes Execute Order, NCA Publishes Execute Order, STRAT CDR Transmits to CTFSTRAT CDR Transmits to CTF• CTF Executes OPORDCTF Executes OPORD• TPFDD MaintainedTPFDD Maintained• Evaluate Reception & Onward Evaluate Reception & Onward
Movement Capabilities Movement Capabilities• Continuous ReportingContinuous Reporting
Phase VI: ExecutionPhase VI: Execution
Crisis Action Planning ProcessCrisis Action Planning ProcessNCA/STRAT CDR Level
IISituationSituation
DevelopmentDevelopment
IIIICrisisCrisis
AssessmentAssessment
IVIVCOACOA
SelectionSelection
VIExecution
CTF Level CAP crisis action planningCOA course of action
Deployment Employment Transition Redeployment
PlanningPlanning Execution
IIIIIICOACOA
DevelopmentDevelopment
VVExecutionExecutionPlanningPlanning
FormJTF HQ CAPCAP
By definition, an environment of rapidly changing events– Planning time varying from hours to months
CAP intended to be flexible– Six phases “conducted sequentially,
concurrently, compressed, or eliminated altogether”
CAP FlexibilityCAP Flexibility
CAP Orders in CAP Orders in Recent OperationsRecent Operations
WARNORDWARNORD PLORDPLORD ALORDALORD DEPORDDEPORD EXORDEXORDPROVIDE RELIEF PROVIDE RELIEF (Somalia)(Somalia) XX XX XX
PROVIDE COMFORT PROVIDE COMFORT (N. Iraq)(N. Iraq) XX XX XX XX
PROVIDE HOPE PROVIDE HOPE (Russia)(Russia) XX XX
PROVIDE PROMISE PROVIDE PROMISE (Yugo)(Yugo) XX XX XX XX
ABLE SENTRY ABLE SENTRY (Macedonia)(Macedonia) XX XX
Haiti Advisory Group Haiti Advisory Group (Haiti)(Haiti) XX XX
VIGILANT WARRIOR VIGILANT WARRIOR (Iraq)(Iraq) XX XX
UPHOLD DEMOCRACY UPHOLD DEMOCRACY (Haiti)(Haiti) XX X X XX XXXX
DESERT STRIKE DESERT STRIKE (Iraq)(Iraq) XX X XX X
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