Credit Suisse 4th Annual Industrials Conference · November 30, 2016 Alan H. Shaw Executive Vice...
Transcript of Credit Suisse 4th Annual Industrials Conference · November 30, 2016 Alan H. Shaw Executive Vice...
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Credit Suisse 4th Annual Industrials Conference
November 30, 2016
Alan H. Shaw
Executive Vice President
and Chief Marketing Officer
2
Certain statements in this presentation are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provision of
the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, as amended. In some cases, forward-looking statements may be
identified by the use of words like “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “estimate,” “plan,” “consider,” “project,” and similar
references to the future. Forward-looking statements are made as of the date they were first issued and reflect the
good-faith evaluation of Norfolk Southern Corporation’s (NYSE: NSC) (“Norfolk Southern” or the “Company”)
management of information currently available. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and
uncertainties, many of which are beyond the Company’s control. These and other important factors, including those
discussed under “Risk Factors” in the Company’s Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2015, as well as the
Company’s other public filings with the SEC, may cause our actual results, performance or achievement to differ
materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are not,
and should not be relied upon as, a guarantee of future performance or results, nor will they necessarily prove to be
accurate indications of the times at or by which any such performance or results will be achieved. As a result, actual
outcomes and results may differ materially from those expressed in forward-looking statements. We undertake no
obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, the occurrence of
certain events or otherwise, unless otherwise required by applicable securities law.
Forward-Looking Statements
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Norfolk Southern’s Footprint Aligned for Growth
~20,000
Route Miles of Track
22 States
Served by Network
40+ Ports
240+ Short Lines
Note: (1) Over 550 miles
Norfolk Southern’s network
interfaces with:
More than 50% of the US
population, manufacturing
activity, and energy
consumption
Estimated 50M+ long-haul(1)
truck shipments in our service
area
Extensive network reach supports future growth
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First 9 Months 2016
$7.4 billion USD
Agriculture15%
Metals and Construction
13%
Paper8%
Chemicals17%
Auto10%
Intermodal22%
Coal15%
Agriculture14%
Metals and Construction
11%
Paper7%
Chemicals14%
Auto 7%
Intermodal19%
Coal28%
Full Year 2010
$9.5 billion USD
Adapting to Changing Markets
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First 9 Months Highlights
% vs. PY
Railway operating
revenues (7%)
Railway operating
expenses (12%)
Railway operating ratio (5%)
Income from railway
operations 3%
EPS 8%
$5,751
$236
$163
$139
$128
$--$5,085
Net decrease of $666 / 12%
Fuel Depr.Purchased
Svcs & Rents2015Comp &
Benefits 2016Materials
& Other
Expense Improvement ($ in millions)
Solid performance despite economic headwinds
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Railway Operating RevenuesNine Months 2016 vs. 2015
1. Please see reconciliation to GAAP posted on our website.
Revenue RPU RPU Less Fuel (1) Volume
$7.4 Billion $1,365 $1,334 5.4 Million units
down (7%) down (3%) flat down (5%)
Revenue $ in million & Y-o-Y Percent Change
Merchandise
$4,678
(2%)
Coal
$1,085
(22%)
Intermodal
$1,635
(11%)
$7,993
$7,398
($269)
($229)
($169)
($1)$73
YTD 2015 Coal ex.
Fuel
Fuel TCS ex.
Fuel
Merch ex.
Fuel
IM
ex.TCS
ex. Fuel
YTD 2016
Revenue Change $ in millions (1)
Low energy prices and the Triple Crown restructure decreased 2016 revenue
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Changing Economic Backdrop
Indicator2016 Projection as of:
Dec 2015 May 2016 Nov 2016
GDP (IHS Markit) +2.7% +1.7% +1.5%
GDP (Wells Fargo) +2.4% +1.6% +1.5%
Housing Starts (millions) 1.23 1.17 1.15
U.S. Vehicle Production (millions) 12.2 12.4 12.2
Industrial Production +1.0% (1.2%) (1.1%)
Real Consumer Spending +3.1% +2.7% +2.6%
TL Dry Van Rates (rev/mi) without FSC +2.0% (2.6%) (3.3%)
EIA WTI Crude Oil Price ($/barrel) $50.89 $40.19 $42.84
EIA Henry Hub Nat Gas Price ($/mmBtu) $2.88 $2.25 $2.50
USD Exchange Rate With Major Trading Partners +4.7% (0.3%) +0.3%
Inventory/Sales ratio actual (not a
projection):
Most recent updated available as of:
Dec 2015 Mar 2016 Sep 2016
Inventories/Sales Ratio* (total business, adjusted) 1.40 1.41 1.38
Positive for NS Revenue Negative for NS Revenue
Source: IHS Markit; WardsAuto Forecast; EIA; FTR; Census Bureau
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Merchandise Drivers
Source: EIA; WardsAuto; IHS Markit
Merchandise, excluding
automotive, aligns closely with low
tech manufacturing
Automotive strongly correlates to
US vehicle production80
100
120
140
Jan
-00
No
v-0
0
Sep
-01
Ju
l-02
May-0
3
Mar-
04
Jan
-05
No
v-0
5
Sep
-06
Ju
l-07
May-0
8
Mar-
09
Jan
-10
No
v-1
0
Sep
-11
Ju
l-12
May-1
3
Mar-
14
Jan
-15
No
v-1
5
Sep
-16
Ind
ex
: Ju
ly 2
009 =
100
Low-Tech Manufacturing
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Ind
ex
: 2010 =
100
US Vehicle Production
51.9
46.0
48.0
50.0
52.0
54.0
56.0
58.0
60.0
2014 2015 2016
Ind
ex (
seaso
nally
ad
juste
d)
ISM PMI
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0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
1Q 2014 2Q 2014 3Q 2014 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 2Q 2015 3Q 2015 4Q 2015 1Q 2016 2Q 2016 3Q 2016 4Q 2016(F)
Consumer Spending (Sequential Change vs. Preceding Period)
Source: BEA
Steady Growth in Consumer Spending
Consumer continues to drive economy
10 Source: Truckstop.com
Though market demand levels are above 2015 in second half, overall market capacity is loose
Truck Market Capacity Remains Relatively Loose
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
24.0
26.0
28.0
30.0
32.0
34.0
36.0
Truckstop.com Market Demand Index (MDI)(available loads vs. available trucks)
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Dry Van
Even Market
Total Even
Market
Tightening Capacityavailable loads>available trucks
Loosening Capacityavailable loads<available trucks
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Coal Drivers
Utility:
‒ Weather
‒ Natural gas prices
‒ Stockpiles
Export:
‒ Market prices
‒ Production availability0
20
40
60
80
100
Da
ys
of
Bu
rn
Total Stockpiles
Source: EVA; EIA; NYMEX
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
Do
lla
rs p
er
MM
Btu
Natural Gas Prices - Henry Hub
Forward curve 11.29.16
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(40%)
(35%)
(30%)
(25%)
(20%)
(15%)
(10%)
(5%)
0%
5%
10%
15%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47
Yo
YC
han
ge
in
We
ekly
Vo
lum
e
Merchandise
2016 Weekly Volume by Market
Merchandise volume stable
13
(40%)
(35%)
(30%)
(25%)
(20%)
(15%)
(10%)
(5%)
0%
5%
10%
15%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47
Yo
YC
han
ge
in
We
ekly
Vo
lum
e
Intermodal Merchandise
2016 Weekly Volume by Market
Intermodal volume growth as we clear comparisons
14
(40%)
(35%)
(30%)
(25%)
(20%)
(15%)
(10%)
(5%)
0%
5%
10%
15%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47
Yo
YC
han
ge
in
We
ekly
Vo
lum
e
Coal Intermodal Merchandise
2016 Weekly Volume by Market
Sequential improvement in Coal volume
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Current Railway VolumeFourth Quarter through Week 47 (ended November 26, 2016)
Total Units (000’s)1.3% Increase in Units 4QTD 2016 vs. 2015
30,056; 5%
5,678; 6%
2,903; 3%
(2,831);(4%)
(3,681);(8%)
(8,880); (11%)
(9,108);(6%)
Automotive
Paper
Chemicals
Coal
Intermodal
MetCon
Agriculture
1,129.5 1,143.7
2015 2016
Growth in Intermodal and steel offset by energy declines
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Fourth Quarter 2016 Revenue Outlook
Volume Pricing
Fourth quarter year-over-year, flat to
moderate growth expected, despite
continued challenges
− Excess capacity in the trucking market
− Stockpiles and weather impact coal
volumes
− Crude oil and Automotive declines
− Stronger intermodal as we clear Triple
Crown comparison
− Metals market laps fourth quarter 2015
declines
Fourth quarter volumes stabilize, solid pricing leveraging value of service, mix headwinds continue
Focus on Pricing
− 2016 pricing remains strong
− Domestic truck rates lower
− Leveraging value of service product
Long-term view of markets and pricing
Volume and Resource Alignment
Flexibility to adapt to changing market
conditions and volume expectations
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Fourth Quarter 2016 Expense Outlook
3Q16 Actualvs. 3Q15
4Q16 Outlookvs. 4Q15
Compensation and benefits:
Headcount ~ 2,400 ~ 2,200
Wage and H&W rates $26M ~ $26M
Incentive compensation $39M ~ $39M
Triple Crown – purchased services $37M ~ $20M
Fuel $40M Price and consumption driven
Depreciation $17M ~ $25M
Materials $15M ~ $15M
Improving efficiencies and reducing costs to drive shareholder value
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NS well positioned to achieve 2016 financial and operational targets
‒ Operating ratio below 70%
‒ Productivity savings of ~ $250 million
‒ Capital spending of ~ $1.9 billion
‒ On track for $800M in share repurchases
Dedicated team focus on delivering long-term shareholder value
‒ $650M of annual productivity savings by 2020
‒ Top line growth
‒ Operating ratio below 65% by 2020
‒ EPS double digit compound annual growth rate by 2020
‒ Returning capital to shareholders
Agile NS team reliably delivers shareholder value in the near- and long- term
Strategic Plan Enhancing Shareholder Value
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NS well positioned to achieve 2016 financial and operational targets
− Operating ratio below 70%
− Productivity savings of about $250 million
− Capital spending of $1.9 billion
− On track for $800M in share repurchases
Dedicated team focus on delivering long-term shareholder value
− $650M of annual productivity savings by 2020
− Top line growth
− Operating ratio below 65% by 2020
− EPS double digit compound annual growth rate by 2020
− Returning capital to shareholders
Agile NS team reliably delivers shareholder value in near- and long- term
Thank You