Credit Suisse 4th Annual Industrials Conference · November 30, 2016 Alan H. Shaw Executive Vice...

19
1 Credit Suisse 4 th Annual Industrials Conference November 30, 2016 Alan H. Shaw Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer

Transcript of Credit Suisse 4th Annual Industrials Conference · November 30, 2016 Alan H. Shaw Executive Vice...

Page 1: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Industrials Conference · November 30, 2016 Alan H. Shaw Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer . 2 Certain statements in this presentation

1

Credit Suisse 4th Annual Industrials Conference

November 30, 2016

Alan H. Shaw

Executive Vice President

and Chief Marketing Officer

Page 2: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Industrials Conference · November 30, 2016 Alan H. Shaw Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer . 2 Certain statements in this presentation

2

Certain statements in this presentation are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provision of

the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, as amended. In some cases, forward-looking statements may be

identified by the use of words like “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “estimate,” “plan,” “consider,” “project,” and similar

references to the future. Forward-looking statements are made as of the date they were first issued and reflect the

good-faith evaluation of Norfolk Southern Corporation’s (NYSE: NSC) (“Norfolk Southern” or the “Company”)

management of information currently available. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and

uncertainties, many of which are beyond the Company’s control. These and other important factors, including those

discussed under “Risk Factors” in the Company’s Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2015, as well as the

Company’s other public filings with the SEC, may cause our actual results, performance or achievement to differ

materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are not,

and should not be relied upon as, a guarantee of future performance or results, nor will they necessarily prove to be

accurate indications of the times at or by which any such performance or results will be achieved. As a result, actual

outcomes and results may differ materially from those expressed in forward-looking statements. We undertake no

obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, the occurrence of

certain events or otherwise, unless otherwise required by applicable securities law.

Forward-Looking Statements

Page 3: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Industrials Conference · November 30, 2016 Alan H. Shaw Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer . 2 Certain statements in this presentation

33

Norfolk Southern’s Footprint Aligned for Growth

~20,000

Route Miles of Track

22 States

Served by Network

40+ Ports

240+ Short Lines

Note: (1) Over 550 miles

Norfolk Southern’s network

interfaces with:

More than 50% of the US

population, manufacturing

activity, and energy

consumption

Estimated 50M+ long-haul(1)

truck shipments in our service

area

Extensive network reach supports future growth

Page 4: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Industrials Conference · November 30, 2016 Alan H. Shaw Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer . 2 Certain statements in this presentation

44

First 9 Months 2016

$7.4 billion USD

Agriculture15%

Metals and Construction

13%

Paper8%

Chemicals17%

Auto10%

Intermodal22%

Coal15%

Agriculture14%

Metals and Construction

11%

Paper7%

Chemicals14%

Auto 7%

Intermodal19%

Coal28%

Full Year 2010

$9.5 billion USD

Adapting to Changing Markets

Page 5: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Industrials Conference · November 30, 2016 Alan H. Shaw Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer . 2 Certain statements in this presentation

5

First 9 Months Highlights

% vs. PY

Railway operating

revenues (7%)

Railway operating

expenses (12%)

Railway operating ratio (5%)

Income from railway

operations 3%

EPS 8%

$5,751

$236

$163

$139

$128

$--$5,085

Net decrease of $666 / 12%

Fuel Depr.Purchased

Svcs & Rents2015Comp &

Benefits 2016Materials

& Other

Expense Improvement ($ in millions)

Solid performance despite economic headwinds

Page 6: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Industrials Conference · November 30, 2016 Alan H. Shaw Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer . 2 Certain statements in this presentation

66

Railway Operating RevenuesNine Months 2016 vs. 2015

1. Please see reconciliation to GAAP posted on our website.

Revenue RPU RPU Less Fuel (1) Volume

$7.4 Billion $1,365 $1,334 5.4 Million units

down (7%) down (3%) flat down (5%)

Revenue $ in million & Y-o-Y Percent Change

Merchandise

$4,678

(2%)

Coal

$1,085

(22%)

Intermodal

$1,635

(11%)

$7,993

$7,398

($269)

($229)

($169)

($1)$73

YTD 2015 Coal ex.

Fuel

Fuel TCS ex.

Fuel

Merch ex.

Fuel

IM

ex.TCS

ex. Fuel

YTD 2016

Revenue Change $ in millions (1)

Low energy prices and the Triple Crown restructure decreased 2016 revenue

Page 7: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Industrials Conference · November 30, 2016 Alan H. Shaw Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer . 2 Certain statements in this presentation

7

Changing Economic Backdrop

Indicator2016 Projection as of:

Dec 2015 May 2016 Nov 2016

GDP (IHS Markit) +2.7% +1.7% +1.5%

GDP (Wells Fargo) +2.4% +1.6% +1.5%

Housing Starts (millions) 1.23 1.17 1.15

U.S. Vehicle Production (millions) 12.2 12.4 12.2

Industrial Production +1.0% (1.2%) (1.1%)

Real Consumer Spending +3.1% +2.7% +2.6%

TL Dry Van Rates (rev/mi) without FSC +2.0% (2.6%) (3.3%)

EIA WTI Crude Oil Price ($/barrel) $50.89 $40.19 $42.84

EIA Henry Hub Nat Gas Price ($/mmBtu) $2.88 $2.25 $2.50

USD Exchange Rate With Major Trading Partners +4.7% (0.3%) +0.3%

Inventory/Sales ratio actual (not a

projection):

Most recent updated available as of:

Dec 2015 Mar 2016 Sep 2016

Inventories/Sales Ratio* (total business, adjusted) 1.40 1.41 1.38

Positive for NS Revenue Negative for NS Revenue

Source: IHS Markit; WardsAuto Forecast; EIA; FTR; Census Bureau

Page 8: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Industrials Conference · November 30, 2016 Alan H. Shaw Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer . 2 Certain statements in this presentation

8

Merchandise Drivers

Source: EIA; WardsAuto; IHS Markit

Merchandise, excluding

automotive, aligns closely with low

tech manufacturing

Automotive strongly correlates to

US vehicle production80

100

120

140

Jan

-00

No

v-0

0

Sep

-01

Ju

l-02

May-0

3

Mar-

04

Jan

-05

No

v-0

5

Sep

-06

Ju

l-07

May-0

8

Mar-

09

Jan

-10

No

v-1

0

Sep

-11

Ju

l-12

May-1

3

Mar-

14

Jan

-15

No

v-1

5

Sep

-16

Ind

ex

: Ju

ly 2

009 =

100

Low-Tech Manufacturing

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Ind

ex

: 2010 =

100

US Vehicle Production

51.9

46.0

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

60.0

2014 2015 2016

Ind

ex (

seaso

nally

ad

juste

d)

ISM PMI

Page 9: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Industrials Conference · November 30, 2016 Alan H. Shaw Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer . 2 Certain statements in this presentation

9

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

1Q 2014 2Q 2014 3Q 2014 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 2Q 2015 3Q 2015 4Q 2015 1Q 2016 2Q 2016 3Q 2016 4Q 2016(F)

Consumer Spending (Sequential Change vs. Preceding Period)

Source: BEA

Steady Growth in Consumer Spending

Consumer continues to drive economy

Page 10: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Industrials Conference · November 30, 2016 Alan H. Shaw Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer . 2 Certain statements in this presentation

10 Source: Truckstop.com

Though market demand levels are above 2015 in second half, overall market capacity is loose

Truck Market Capacity Remains Relatively Loose

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

24.0

26.0

28.0

30.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

Truckstop.com Market Demand Index (MDI)(available loads vs. available trucks)

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Dry Van

Even Market

Total Even

Market

Tightening Capacityavailable loads>available trucks

Loosening Capacityavailable loads<available trucks

Page 11: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Industrials Conference · November 30, 2016 Alan H. Shaw Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer . 2 Certain statements in this presentation

11

Coal Drivers

Utility:

‒ Weather

‒ Natural gas prices

‒ Stockpiles

Export:

‒ Market prices

‒ Production availability0

20

40

60

80

100

Da

ys

of

Bu

rn

Total Stockpiles

Source: EVA; EIA; NYMEX

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

Do

lla

rs p

er

MM

Btu

Natural Gas Prices - Henry Hub

Forward curve 11.29.16

Page 12: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Industrials Conference · November 30, 2016 Alan H. Shaw Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer . 2 Certain statements in this presentation

12

(40%)

(35%)

(30%)

(25%)

(20%)

(15%)

(10%)

(5%)

0%

5%

10%

15%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47

Yo

YC

han

ge

in

We

ekly

Vo

lum

e

Merchandise

2016 Weekly Volume by Market

Merchandise volume stable

Page 13: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Industrials Conference · November 30, 2016 Alan H. Shaw Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer . 2 Certain statements in this presentation

13

(40%)

(35%)

(30%)

(25%)

(20%)

(15%)

(10%)

(5%)

0%

5%

10%

15%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47

Yo

YC

han

ge

in

We

ekly

Vo

lum

e

Intermodal Merchandise

2016 Weekly Volume by Market

Intermodal volume growth as we clear comparisons

Page 14: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Industrials Conference · November 30, 2016 Alan H. Shaw Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer . 2 Certain statements in this presentation

14

(40%)

(35%)

(30%)

(25%)

(20%)

(15%)

(10%)

(5%)

0%

5%

10%

15%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47

Yo

YC

han

ge

in

We

ekly

Vo

lum

e

Coal Intermodal Merchandise

2016 Weekly Volume by Market

Sequential improvement in Coal volume

Page 15: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Industrials Conference · November 30, 2016 Alan H. Shaw Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer . 2 Certain statements in this presentation

15

Current Railway VolumeFourth Quarter through Week 47 (ended November 26, 2016)

Total Units (000’s)1.3% Increase in Units 4QTD 2016 vs. 2015

30,056; 5%

5,678; 6%

2,903; 3%

(2,831);(4%)

(3,681);(8%)

(8,880); (11%)

(9,108);(6%)

Automotive

Paper

Chemicals

Coal

Intermodal

MetCon

Agriculture

1,129.5 1,143.7

2015 2016

Growth in Intermodal and steel offset by energy declines

Page 16: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Industrials Conference · November 30, 2016 Alan H. Shaw Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer . 2 Certain statements in this presentation

16

Fourth Quarter 2016 Revenue Outlook

Volume Pricing

Fourth quarter year-over-year, flat to

moderate growth expected, despite

continued challenges

− Excess capacity in the trucking market

− Stockpiles and weather impact coal

volumes

− Crude oil and Automotive declines

− Stronger intermodal as we clear Triple

Crown comparison

− Metals market laps fourth quarter 2015

declines

Fourth quarter volumes stabilize, solid pricing leveraging value of service, mix headwinds continue

Focus on Pricing

− 2016 pricing remains strong

− Domestic truck rates lower

− Leveraging value of service product

Long-term view of markets and pricing

Volume and Resource Alignment

Flexibility to adapt to changing market

conditions and volume expectations

Page 17: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Industrials Conference · November 30, 2016 Alan H. Shaw Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer . 2 Certain statements in this presentation

17

Fourth Quarter 2016 Expense Outlook

3Q16 Actualvs. 3Q15

4Q16 Outlookvs. 4Q15

Compensation and benefits:

Headcount ~ 2,400 ~ 2,200

Wage and H&W rates $26M ~ $26M

Incentive compensation $39M ~ $39M

Triple Crown – purchased services $37M ~ $20M

Fuel $40M Price and consumption driven

Depreciation $17M ~ $25M

Materials $15M ~ $15M

Improving efficiencies and reducing costs to drive shareholder value

Page 18: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Industrials Conference · November 30, 2016 Alan H. Shaw Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer . 2 Certain statements in this presentation

18

NS well positioned to achieve 2016 financial and operational targets

‒ Operating ratio below 70%

‒ Productivity savings of ~ $250 million

‒ Capital spending of ~ $1.9 billion

‒ On track for $800M in share repurchases

Dedicated team focus on delivering long-term shareholder value

‒ $650M of annual productivity savings by 2020

‒ Top line growth

‒ Operating ratio below 65% by 2020

‒ EPS double digit compound annual growth rate by 2020

‒ Returning capital to shareholders

Agile NS team reliably delivers shareholder value in the near- and long- term

Strategic Plan Enhancing Shareholder Value

Page 19: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Industrials Conference · November 30, 2016 Alan H. Shaw Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer . 2 Certain statements in this presentation

19

NS well positioned to achieve 2016 financial and operational targets

− Operating ratio below 70%

− Productivity savings of about $250 million

− Capital spending of $1.9 billion

− On track for $800M in share repurchases

Dedicated team focus on delivering long-term shareholder value

− $650M of annual productivity savings by 2020

− Top line growth

− Operating ratio below 65% by 2020

− EPS double digit compound annual growth rate by 2020

− Returning capital to shareholders

Agile NS team reliably delivers shareholder value in near- and long- term

Thank You