Credit Suisse 2014 Industrials ConferenceCredit Suisse 2014 Industrials Conference Union Pacific...

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1 Credit Suisse 2014 Industrials Conference Union Pacific Corporation Rob Knight, CFO December 3, 2014 2 Cautionary Information This presentation and related materials contain statements about the Corporation’s future that are not statements of historical fact, including specifically the statements regarding the Corporation’s expectations with respect to economic conditions; the potential impact of weather on its operations; and its ability to generate record financial returns, improve network performance and fluidity, provide quality customer service, and provide returns to its shareholders. These statements are, or will be, forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements also generally include, without limitation, information or statements regarding: projections, predictions, expectations, estimates or forecasts as to the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ business, financial, and operational results, and future economic performance; and management’s beliefs, expectations, goals, and objectives and other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts. Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of the times that, or by which, such performance or results will be achieved. Forward-looking information, including expectations regarding operational and financial improvements and the Corporation’s future performance or results are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in the statement. Important factors, including risk factors, could affect the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ future results and could cause those results or other outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Information regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for 2013, which was filed with the SEC on February 7, 2014. The Corporation updates information regarding risk factors if circumstances require such updates in its periodic reports on Form 10-Q and its subsequent Annual Reports on Form 10-K (or such other reports that may be filed with the SEC). Forward-looking statements speak only as of, and are based only upon information available on, the date the statements were made. The Corporation assumes no obligation to update forward-looking information to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking information. If the Corporation does update one or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be drawn that the Corporation will make additional updates with respect thereto or with respect to other forward-looking statements. References to our website are provided for convenience and, therefore, information on or available through the website is not, and should not be deemed to be, incorporated by reference herein.

Transcript of Credit Suisse 2014 Industrials ConferenceCredit Suisse 2014 Industrials Conference Union Pacific...

Page 1: Credit Suisse 2014 Industrials ConferenceCredit Suisse 2014 Industrials Conference Union Pacific Corporation ... Mexico Produce Dairy, Poultry Cattle Cattle, Poultry Dairy Dairy Cattle

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Credit Suisse 2014 Industrials Conference Union Pacific Corporation

Rob Knight, CFO – December 3, 2014

2

Cautionary Information This presentation and related materials contain statements about the Corporation’s future that are not

statements of historical fact, including specifically the statements regarding the Corporation’s expectations with respect to economic conditions; the potential impact of weather on its operations; and its ability to generate record financial returns, improve network performance and fluidity, provide quality customer service, and provide returns to its shareholders. These statements are, or will be, forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements also generally include, without limitation, information or statements regarding: projections, predictions, expectations, estimates or forecasts as to the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ business, financial, and operational results, and future economic performance; and management’s beliefs, expectations, goals, and objectives and other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts.

Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of the times that, or by which, such performance or results will be achieved. Forward-looking information, including expectations regarding operational and financial improvements and the Corporation’s future performance or results are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in the statement. Important factors, including risk factors, could affect the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ future results and could cause those results or other outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Information regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for 2013, which was filed with the SEC on February 7, 2014. The Corporation updates information regarding risk factors if circumstances require such updates in its periodic reports on Form 10-Q and its subsequent Annual Reports on Form 10-K (or such other reports that may be filed with the SEC).

Forward-looking statements speak only as of, and are based only upon information available on, the date the statements were made. The Corporation assumes no obligation to update forward-looking information to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking information. If the Corporation does update one or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be drawn that the Corporation will make additional updates with respect thereto or with respect to other forward-looking statements. References to our website are provided for convenience and, therefore, information on or available through the website is not, and should not be deemed to be, incorporated by reference herein.

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• Excellent Network • Strategic Terminal Locations • Broad Port Access • Border and Interchange

Coverage

A Unique Franchise

Ag 17%

Autos 9%

Chem 16%

Coal 18%

IP 20%

Intmdl 20%

Business Mix Jan – Sep 2014 Revenue

Automotive Distribution Centers

Intermodal Terminals

Manifest Terminals

Border Crossings, Gateways and Interchanges

Ports

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Union Pacific Value Proposition

• Franchise Provides Opportunity • Population and

Economy are Favorable • Diverse Market

Opportunities • Regulatory Uncertainty • Focus on Business

Development • Price to the Value We

Provide

Strategic Investments

The Best Franchise

Strong Relationships

Innovative Products

Excellent Service

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Operating Ratio

2004* 2013 2004* 2013

The Last Decade 2004 to 2013

87.5%

66.1%

2004* 2013

$0.71

$4.71

5.3%

14.7%

* 2004 adjusted for asbestos pre-tax charge of $247.4 million.

7 Day Volume @ 184K

7 Day Volume @ 176K

EPS ROIC**

-21.4 points

+23% CAGR

+9.4 points

** See Union Pacific website under Investors for a reconciliation to GAAP.

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2014 YTD Record Results Positives • Best-Ever Records

• Operating Revenue

• Operating Income

• Operating Ratio

• Earnings

• Franchise Diversity Challenges • Network Performance

2012 2013 2014

$3.04 $3.44

$4.14

Best-Ever YTD

+20%

Earnings Per Share* (September YTD)

2012 2013 2014

68.0 66.5

64.2

Operating Ratio (%) (September YTD)

Best-Ever YTD

-2.3 pts

*Adjusted for June 6, 2014 Stock Split

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1 24 47

35.7 31.7

1 24 47

27.6

22.8

Network Performance Key Drivers for Improvement

• Leverage UP Franchise

• Workforce Additions

• New Locomotive Acquisitions

• Infrastructure Investments

• Positioned for Improvement

4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14

28.0 30.7 29.8 29.7

4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14

25.8 24.5 23.9 23.8

UP Velocity (As reported to the AAR, in mph)

Good

UP Terminal Dwell (As reported to the AAR, in hours)

Good

2014 Weekly Trend

2014 Weekly Trend

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7 Day Volume Trends Through November 25, 2014

20,000

24,000

28,000

32,000 Industrial Products

(+10%)*

Jan Dec

2014

2013

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000 Agricultural (+12%)*

Jan Dec

2014

26,000

30,000

34,000

38,000 Coal (+4%)*

Jan Dec

2014

55,000

60,000

65,000

70,000

75,000 Intermodal (+8%)*

Jan Dec

2014

2013 2013

2013

WY Blizzard

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000 Automotive (+3%)*

Jan Dec

2014 2013

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000 Chemicals (+1%)*

Jan Dec

2014

2013

*2014 YTD vs 2013

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Agricultural Trends Volume Mix*

Major Grain & Grain Products

Region

Grain Exports Mexico

Produce

Dairy, Poultry

Cattle

Cattle, Poultry

Dairy

Dairy

Cattle

Grain Exports

Produce

Grain Products

34%

Food & Refrigerated

24% Grain 42%

Origination

Domestic Markets

Export Markets

Mexico

*Based on YTD Volume Through September 30, 2014

Grain (Year-over-Year Volume Change)

4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 0%

15% 8%

31%

93%

73%

133%

39%

Export* Domestic*

*Excludes equipment shipments.

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Shale Related Volumes

• Frac Sand Opportunity • Potential, Continued Shale

Energy Growth • Potential for Additional

Production Sources • Opportunity to Grow with

Industry

• Crude Oil By Rail Market Drivers • Price Spreads • Production Growth

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E

72

116 150

189

Eagle Ford Permian CO/WY Marcellus/Utica Bakken Haynesville Other

Sand Volume by Shale (000s)

CAGR >30% 2010-2014

2011 2012 2013 2014E Bakken Eagle Ford Permian Niobrara Canadian Other

Crude Oil Volume by Shale (000s)

37

138 163

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Intermodal Growth Opportunities • Comprehensive Network

• Significant Domestic Truck-Load Conversion Opportunity

• Truckload Opportunity Originating from Mexico

• Strong Value Proposition • Competitive Service at an

Affordable Price • Environmental Friendliness

• Truck’s Traditional Advantage is Eroding • Regulations & Rising Costs • Highway Congestion &

Infrastructure

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1,159 1,250

1,452 1,475 1,526 1,575

Domestic Volumes (Units in 000’s)

+36%

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Chicago

Monterrey

LA

Portland

Oakland

Santa Teresa (El Paso)

New Domestic Intermodal Services

New/Improved Service

New U.S./Mexico Rail Service

St. Louis

Houston Laredo

New Orleans

Memphis

• Expansion of Premium Service into New Markets

• Seamless Service between Mexico & U.S.

• Santa Teresa, NM Facility opened April 1, 2014

• Truck-Competitive Service

• Access to the largest Rail-owned Container Fleet

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North American Production Growth Union Pacific is Well Positioned to Handle Mexico Automotive

Manufacturing Locations

Expansion or Planned Expansion

New Plant or Planned New Plant *Source: IHS Global Insight October 2014

2017

MONTERREY 2016

RAMOS ARIZPE SALTILLO 2013 SALTILLO RAMOS ARIZPE CHIHUAHUA HERMOSILLO

TIJUANA

AGUASCALIENTES 2017

AGUASCALIENTES

AGUASCALIENTES 2013

SALAMANCA 2013

CELAYA 2013 SILAO SILAO 2013 TOLUCA TOLUCA CUATITLAN

PUEBLA 2016

PUEBLA MORELOS SAN LUIS POTOSI

EL SALTO 2019

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Fcst.

2015 Fcst.

2016 Fcst.

2017 Fcst.

2018 Fcst.

2019 Fcst.

Mill

ions

Canada Mexico United States

North American Light Vehicle Production Forecast*

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$2.71

$3.35

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O

• Colder than Normal ‘13-14 Winter

• Low Coal Stockpiles

• October PRB Stockpiles ~ 17 Days Below 5 year Average

• Gas Above Conversion Range

• Eastern Conversion

SPRB Conversion Range

Natural Gas Prices* (NYMEX)

Powder River Basin Coal Stocks* (Days of Burn)

Normal Days of Burn

Days of Burn

‘14 ‘13 ‘12

$3.80 $4.54

2014

* Energy Ventures Analysis

* EIA

Current Coal Demand Drivers

76

80

52 51

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O ‘14 ‘13 ‘12

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Point Comfort, TX

Joffre, AB

Sarnia, ON

Coatzacoalcos, VL

Plaquemine, LA

Monaca, PA

Expansions under construction *Publicly announced expansions

Parkersburg, WV

Plaquemine, LA

Odessa, TX

Point Comfort

VL Corpus Christi, TX

Decatur, AL

Montreal, PQ Badlands NGL LLC

North Dakota

La Porte, TX

La Porte, TX

Odessa, TX

La Porte, TX

La Porte, TX

Baytown, TX

Freeport, TX

Sweeny, TX

Lake Charles, LA

Lake Charles, LA

North American Chemical Expansions* Plastic Resin

16 *Source: Company public announcements

Mexico Opportunities for Union Pacific Important FDI Announcements

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Strengthening the Franchise Replacement, Growth & Productivity, and PTC

• Safe and Resilient Infrastructure

• Continued Capacity Spending – Southern Region – Network Strategies

• Equipment Purchases – 261 New Locomotives – More than 400 Freight Cars – 5,000 Domestic Containers

Capital Spend of 16% - 17% of Revenue for 2014 - 2019

* Includes cash capital, leases and other non-cash capital.

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E

Locomotives / Equipment Infrastructure Replacement

$2.5

$3.2

$3.7 $3.6 ~$4.0

Capacity / Commercial Facilities Technology / Other Positive Train Control

ROIC**

Investments* & Returns** (Capital in Billions)

10.8%

14.7%

** See Union Pacific website under Investors for a reconciliation to GAAP.

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Cash from Ops

Investing Dividends

$4.9

($2.6)

($1.0)

$5.4

($3.3)

($1.2)

Strong Financial Position Nine Month Period Ending September 30 ($ In Billions)

• Solid Cash from Operations ‒ Cash Headwind from Prior Years’

Bonus Depreciation

• Increase in Capital Investment & Dividends

• Strong Balance Sheet ‒ Investment Grade Credit Rating ‒ Adjusted Debt Balance Increase of

$1.7 Billion ‒ Long Term Capital Structure Targets

‒ Low to Mid 40’s Adj. Debt-to-Cap ‒ 1.5x+ Adj. Debt / Adj. EBITDA

Free Cash Flow*

Total Debt* (Adjusted)

37.6% 40.2%

* See Union Pacific website under Investors for a reconciliation to GAAP. Adjusted Debt to Capital

12/31/2013 9/30/2014

$12.8 $14.5

2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013

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3Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

8.75

19 23.75

30 34.5

39.5 45.5

50 50

Delivering Value to Shareholders

Future Allocation Cumulative Share Repurchases ($ In Billions) ($ In Billions)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

$1.5 $3.0 $3.0

$4.2 $5.7

$7.1

$9.3

$11.7

Declared Dividend Per Share* (cents)

2007

+5.7x

2011 2012 2013 2014

Dividends: • Declared Dividend increase of 15% in

1Q14 and 10% in 3Q14 • Dividend Payout Target of 35% Share Repurchases: • Continue Opportunistic Approach • Share Repurchase Program

• Expires Dec. 31, 2017 • 95.7M Shares Remain*

*As of September 30, 2014

*Through September

2014*

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Growing Shareholder Value

KEY DRIVERS

Moderate Economy Diverse Franchise Opportunities

Volume + Pricing + Productivity

Strong Value Proposition - Reinvestability

Replacement & Productivity Growth with High Returns

Increasing Cash Generation Low to Mid 40’s Adj. Debt / Cap 1.5x+ Adj. Debt / Adj. EBITDA Strong Investment Grade

Positive Volume Growth

Operating Ratio 60%+/-

Real Core Price Gains

CapEx of 16% - 17% of Revenue

Dividend Payout Target: 35% Opportunistic Share Repurchases

2015 2019

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Question & Answer Session

Rob Knight, CFO – December 3, 2014