Credit Suisse 2014 Industrials ConferenceCredit Suisse 2014 Industrials Conference Union Pacific...
Transcript of Credit Suisse 2014 Industrials ConferenceCredit Suisse 2014 Industrials Conference Union Pacific...
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Credit Suisse 2014 Industrials Conference Union Pacific Corporation
Rob Knight, CFO – December 3, 2014
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Cautionary Information This presentation and related materials contain statements about the Corporation’s future that are not
statements of historical fact, including specifically the statements regarding the Corporation’s expectations with respect to economic conditions; the potential impact of weather on its operations; and its ability to generate record financial returns, improve network performance and fluidity, provide quality customer service, and provide returns to its shareholders. These statements are, or will be, forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements also generally include, without limitation, information or statements regarding: projections, predictions, expectations, estimates or forecasts as to the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ business, financial, and operational results, and future economic performance; and management’s beliefs, expectations, goals, and objectives and other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts.
Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of the times that, or by which, such performance or results will be achieved. Forward-looking information, including expectations regarding operational and financial improvements and the Corporation’s future performance or results are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in the statement. Important factors, including risk factors, could affect the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ future results and could cause those results or other outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Information regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for 2013, which was filed with the SEC on February 7, 2014. The Corporation updates information regarding risk factors if circumstances require such updates in its periodic reports on Form 10-Q and its subsequent Annual Reports on Form 10-K (or such other reports that may be filed with the SEC).
Forward-looking statements speak only as of, and are based only upon information available on, the date the statements were made. The Corporation assumes no obligation to update forward-looking information to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking information. If the Corporation does update one or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be drawn that the Corporation will make additional updates with respect thereto or with respect to other forward-looking statements. References to our website are provided for convenience and, therefore, information on or available through the website is not, and should not be deemed to be, incorporated by reference herein.
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• Excellent Network • Strategic Terminal Locations • Broad Port Access • Border and Interchange
Coverage
A Unique Franchise
Ag 17%
Autos 9%
Chem 16%
Coal 18%
IP 20%
Intmdl 20%
Business Mix Jan – Sep 2014 Revenue
Automotive Distribution Centers
Intermodal Terminals
Manifest Terminals
Border Crossings, Gateways and Interchanges
Ports
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Union Pacific Value Proposition
• Franchise Provides Opportunity • Population and
Economy are Favorable • Diverse Market
Opportunities • Regulatory Uncertainty • Focus on Business
Development • Price to the Value We
Provide
Strategic Investments
The Best Franchise
Strong Relationships
Innovative Products
Excellent Service
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Operating Ratio
2004* 2013 2004* 2013
The Last Decade 2004 to 2013
87.5%
66.1%
2004* 2013
$0.71
$4.71
5.3%
14.7%
* 2004 adjusted for asbestos pre-tax charge of $247.4 million.
7 Day Volume @ 184K
7 Day Volume @ 176K
EPS ROIC**
-21.4 points
+23% CAGR
+9.4 points
** See Union Pacific website under Investors for a reconciliation to GAAP.
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2014 YTD Record Results Positives • Best-Ever Records
• Operating Revenue
• Operating Income
• Operating Ratio
• Earnings
• Franchise Diversity Challenges • Network Performance
2012 2013 2014
$3.04 $3.44
$4.14
Best-Ever YTD
+20%
Earnings Per Share* (September YTD)
2012 2013 2014
68.0 66.5
64.2
Operating Ratio (%) (September YTD)
Best-Ever YTD
-2.3 pts
*Adjusted for June 6, 2014 Stock Split
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1 24 47
35.7 31.7
1 24 47
27.6
22.8
Network Performance Key Drivers for Improvement
• Leverage UP Franchise
• Workforce Additions
• New Locomotive Acquisitions
• Infrastructure Investments
• Positioned for Improvement
4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
28.0 30.7 29.8 29.7
4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
25.8 24.5 23.9 23.8
UP Velocity (As reported to the AAR, in mph)
Good
UP Terminal Dwell (As reported to the AAR, in hours)
Good
2014 Weekly Trend
2014 Weekly Trend
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7 Day Volume Trends Through November 25, 2014
20,000
24,000
28,000
32,000 Industrial Products
(+10%)*
Jan Dec
2014
2013
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000 Agricultural (+12%)*
Jan Dec
2014
26,000
30,000
34,000
38,000 Coal (+4%)*
Jan Dec
2014
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000 Intermodal (+8%)*
Jan Dec
2014
2013 2013
2013
WY Blizzard
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000 Automotive (+3%)*
Jan Dec
2014 2013
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000 Chemicals (+1%)*
Jan Dec
2014
2013
*2014 YTD vs 2013
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Agricultural Trends Volume Mix*
Major Grain & Grain Products
Region
Grain Exports Mexico
Produce
Dairy, Poultry
Cattle
Cattle, Poultry
Dairy
Dairy
Cattle
Grain Exports
Produce
Grain Products
34%
Food & Refrigerated
24% Grain 42%
Origination
Domestic Markets
Export Markets
Mexico
*Based on YTD Volume Through September 30, 2014
Grain (Year-over-Year Volume Change)
4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 0%
15% 8%
31%
93%
73%
133%
39%
Export* Domestic*
*Excludes equipment shipments.
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Shale Related Volumes
• Frac Sand Opportunity • Potential, Continued Shale
Energy Growth • Potential for Additional
Production Sources • Opportunity to Grow with
Industry
• Crude Oil By Rail Market Drivers • Price Spreads • Production Growth
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E
72
116 150
189
Eagle Ford Permian CO/WY Marcellus/Utica Bakken Haynesville Other
Sand Volume by Shale (000s)
CAGR >30% 2010-2014
2011 2012 2013 2014E Bakken Eagle Ford Permian Niobrara Canadian Other
Crude Oil Volume by Shale (000s)
37
138 163
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Intermodal Growth Opportunities • Comprehensive Network
• Significant Domestic Truck-Load Conversion Opportunity
• Truckload Opportunity Originating from Mexico
• Strong Value Proposition • Competitive Service at an
Affordable Price • Environmental Friendliness
• Truck’s Traditional Advantage is Eroding • Regulations & Rising Costs • Highway Congestion &
Infrastructure
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
1,159 1,250
1,452 1,475 1,526 1,575
Domestic Volumes (Units in 000’s)
+36%
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Chicago
Monterrey
LA
Portland
Oakland
Santa Teresa (El Paso)
New Domestic Intermodal Services
New/Improved Service
New U.S./Mexico Rail Service
St. Louis
Houston Laredo
New Orleans
Memphis
• Expansion of Premium Service into New Markets
• Seamless Service between Mexico & U.S.
• Santa Teresa, NM Facility opened April 1, 2014
• Truck-Competitive Service
• Access to the largest Rail-owned Container Fleet
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North American Production Growth Union Pacific is Well Positioned to Handle Mexico Automotive
Manufacturing Locations
Expansion or Planned Expansion
New Plant or Planned New Plant *Source: IHS Global Insight October 2014
2017
MONTERREY 2016
RAMOS ARIZPE SALTILLO 2013 SALTILLO RAMOS ARIZPE CHIHUAHUA HERMOSILLO
TIJUANA
AGUASCALIENTES 2017
AGUASCALIENTES
AGUASCALIENTES 2013
SALAMANCA 2013
CELAYA 2013 SILAO SILAO 2013 TOLUCA TOLUCA CUATITLAN
PUEBLA 2016
PUEBLA MORELOS SAN LUIS POTOSI
EL SALTO 2019
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Fcst.
2015 Fcst.
2016 Fcst.
2017 Fcst.
2018 Fcst.
2019 Fcst.
Mill
ions
Canada Mexico United States
North American Light Vehicle Production Forecast*
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$2.71
$3.35
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O
• Colder than Normal ‘13-14 Winter
• Low Coal Stockpiles
• October PRB Stockpiles ~ 17 Days Below 5 year Average
• Gas Above Conversion Range
• Eastern Conversion
SPRB Conversion Range
Natural Gas Prices* (NYMEX)
Powder River Basin Coal Stocks* (Days of Burn)
Normal Days of Burn
Days of Burn
‘14 ‘13 ‘12
$3.80 $4.54
2014
* Energy Ventures Analysis
* EIA
Current Coal Demand Drivers
76
80
52 51
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O ‘14 ‘13 ‘12
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Point Comfort, TX
Joffre, AB
Sarnia, ON
Coatzacoalcos, VL
Plaquemine, LA
Monaca, PA
Expansions under construction *Publicly announced expansions
Parkersburg, WV
Plaquemine, LA
Odessa, TX
Point Comfort
VL Corpus Christi, TX
Decatur, AL
Montreal, PQ Badlands NGL LLC
North Dakota
La Porte, TX
La Porte, TX
Odessa, TX
La Porte, TX
La Porte, TX
Baytown, TX
Freeport, TX
Sweeny, TX
Lake Charles, LA
Lake Charles, LA
North American Chemical Expansions* Plastic Resin
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Mexico Opportunities for Union Pacific Important FDI Announcements
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Strengthening the Franchise Replacement, Growth & Productivity, and PTC
• Safe and Resilient Infrastructure
• Continued Capacity Spending – Southern Region – Network Strategies
• Equipment Purchases – 261 New Locomotives – More than 400 Freight Cars – 5,000 Domestic Containers
Capital Spend of 16% - 17% of Revenue for 2014 - 2019
* Includes cash capital, leases and other non-cash capital.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E
Locomotives / Equipment Infrastructure Replacement
$2.5
$3.2
$3.7 $3.6 ~$4.0
Capacity / Commercial Facilities Technology / Other Positive Train Control
ROIC**
Investments* & Returns** (Capital in Billions)
10.8%
14.7%
** See Union Pacific website under Investors for a reconciliation to GAAP.
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Cash from Ops
Investing Dividends
$4.9
($2.6)
($1.0)
$5.4
($3.3)
($1.2)
Strong Financial Position Nine Month Period Ending September 30 ($ In Billions)
• Solid Cash from Operations ‒ Cash Headwind from Prior Years’
Bonus Depreciation
• Increase in Capital Investment & Dividends
• Strong Balance Sheet ‒ Investment Grade Credit Rating ‒ Adjusted Debt Balance Increase of
$1.7 Billion ‒ Long Term Capital Structure Targets
‒ Low to Mid 40’s Adj. Debt-to-Cap ‒ 1.5x+ Adj. Debt / Adj. EBITDA
Free Cash Flow*
Total Debt* (Adjusted)
37.6% 40.2%
* See Union Pacific website under Investors for a reconciliation to GAAP. Adjusted Debt to Capital
12/31/2013 9/30/2014
$12.8 $14.5
2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013
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3Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
8.75
19 23.75
30 34.5
39.5 45.5
50 50
Delivering Value to Shareholders
Future Allocation Cumulative Share Repurchases ($ In Billions) ($ In Billions)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
$1.5 $3.0 $3.0
$4.2 $5.7
$7.1
$9.3
$11.7
Declared Dividend Per Share* (cents)
2007
+5.7x
2011 2012 2013 2014
Dividends: • Declared Dividend increase of 15% in
1Q14 and 10% in 3Q14 • Dividend Payout Target of 35% Share Repurchases: • Continue Opportunistic Approach • Share Repurchase Program
• Expires Dec. 31, 2017 • 95.7M Shares Remain*
*As of September 30, 2014
*Through September
2014*
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Growing Shareholder Value
KEY DRIVERS
Moderate Economy Diverse Franchise Opportunities
Volume + Pricing + Productivity
Strong Value Proposition - Reinvestability
Replacement & Productivity Growth with High Returns
Increasing Cash Generation Low to Mid 40’s Adj. Debt / Cap 1.5x+ Adj. Debt / Adj. EBITDA Strong Investment Grade
Positive Volume Growth
Operating Ratio 60%+/-
Real Core Price Gains
CapEx of 16% - 17% of Revenue
Dividend Payout Target: 35% Opportunistic Share Repurchases
2015 2019
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Question & Answer Session
Rob Knight, CFO – December 3, 2014