Credit Research - Jernhusen...portfolio value of about 25% 2005-2011, following the 2012 disposal of...
Transcript of Credit Research - Jernhusen...portfolio value of about 25% 2005-2011, following the 2012 disposal of...
IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS REPORT
24 November 2012
Credit Research
Andreas Zsiga +46 8 514 6203 [email protected]
www.nordeamarkets.com
Jernhusen
Chugging on in the right direction Q3 2013
Like-for-like revenues and NOI improving. Jernhusen reported a
3% decline in 9M revenues YoY (2% Q3 YoY), while the NOI-
margin weakened to 41% (45%), reflecting previous portfolio dis-
posals (Kungsbron in Stockholm) as well as the hotel closure at the
Central Station Stockholm City. On a comparable basis, sales in-
creased 8%, and NOI improved to 39% (37%).
Continued strong underlying demand. Jernhusen refers to in-
creased sales in the Swedish retail sector, with its core customer seg-
ment fast food growng 4% YoY and translating into higher sales
among rental customers. Additionally, underlying demand is sup-
ported by further gains in rail passanger and freight volumes.
Project investments increases LTV. Continued investments boost-
ed property values by some 5% to SEK10.6 bn, while the LTV level
increased slightly to 56% (53% by YE12). Major development pro-
jects involving the Stockholm City Station and the Malmö Central
Station has been initiated, while the new Depot in Boxholn has been
completed, with the Stockholm Årsta Kombiterminal close to com-
pletion..
Refinancing now completed. The company has printed four SEK
bonds totaling SEK1.8bn, while signing two secured credit facilities
totaling SEK1.65 bn (SEK1 bn maturing 2015, SEK650m 2016),
replacing the 2013 RCF maturitiy.
Key credit drivers — stable with a positive twist
Performance trend looks robust. We take comfort from the strong
like-for-like improvement in revenues and NOI. The ongoing project
development is a risk incorporate into the credit profile., and has
solid long term potential.
Refinancing and lower LTV improves financial risk profile. The
refinancing extends debt maturities, hence addressing one of our
previous concerns regarding Jernhusens financial profile. The con-
tained LTV levels, and reduced secured debt to some 10% of LTV
is positive for senior unsecured lenders.
We see no changes to strategy or ownership risks.
We are firm on our A corporate rating (BBB standalone).
Recommdendation We remain market perform on Jernhusen’s SEK bonds, but note
that Rikshem (-/A-) and Fortum offers interesting comparable
at slightly wider spreads at the 4.5 year point. We think that
Vasakronan’s new issue curve should carry a premium compared to
airport operator Swedavia and real-estate company Jernhusen, re-
flecting the direct state ownership in the two latter entities by the
Ministry of Finance.
Corporate family ratings
Long Outlook
S&P n.r n.r
Moody’s n.r n.r
Nordea Markets A Stable
Rental revenues and PMP (SEKm)
Unsecured bond ratings
Long Outlook
S&P n.r n.r
Moody’s n.r n.r
Nordea Markets A Stable
Debt and debt/EBITDA (SEKm, x)
Recommendation
Market perform
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2
48%
50%
52%
54%
56%
58%
60%
62%
64%
66%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Q3LTM
2013E2014E2015E
Loan-to-value Debt/equity
Source: Company reports
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Q3LTM
2013E 2014E 2015E
Total income NOI PMP NOI-margin
Source: Company reports
Jernhusen 24 October 2013
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Relative value comparison
-5,0
15,0
35,0
55,0
75,0
95,0
115,0
-1,0 0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 5,0 6,0 7,0
Vasakronan Akademiska Hus Specialfastigheter Swedavia Jernhusen
SHYP Hemsö Rikshem Fortum
Jernhusen 24 October 2013
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Shadow rating approach and rationale
Applied rating methodology
Based on S&P
methodology
In line with S&P, we base our shadow rating on Jernhusen on the company’s stand-alone
credit profile, adding ratings uplift for potential extraordinary ownership support, reflect-
ing the likelihood for timely, extraordinary support by its key shareholder in a situation of
financial distress.
BBB stand-alone Stand alone rating profile BBB
Our shadow rating is based on a “Strong” business risk profile, and a “Significant” finan-
cial risk profile.
Supported by
attractive portfolio
Credit supportive Centrally and strategically located properties throughout the Swedish national railroad
network
Portfolio value concentrated to the three largest regions in Sweden
Dversified earnings base, with a meaningful share of revenue from state-owned or public entities
Good prospective growth in passenger volumes to support
Potential for divestments of non-core properties to balance planned investments
Solid financial risk management framework, including adequate liquidity profile fol-lowing the H113 refinancing.
Capped by
commercial property
and financial profile
Credit challenges Relatively moderate debt leverage with loan-to-value at 56% at Q3 2013 (YE 2012
53%)
Exposure to commercial tennats within the retail and office segment, with some tenant concentration risk
Smaller size compared to larger rated peers
Growing project development activities, which carries higher risk than ordinary prop-erty management
Uplift to A given ownership support
Full state ownership
and transport policy
role
In our view, Jernhusen would benefit from a “High” likelihood of extraordinary support, providing a 2 notch uplift to A given the following factors:
100% owned by the Kingdom of Sweden, with no political agenda to be privatized. According to the shareholder, Jernhusen has “an important strategic function without any specific public policy role”.
In our understanding, the shareholder views Jernhusen as a vehicle for promoting com-muting and regional passenger traffic (through development of train stations and maintenance depots) and therefore plays a role in executing the national/regional transport policy
Jernhusen’s significant development projects are supported by the shareholder as they will further promote commuting/regional & national passenger traffic, thereby ena-bling further growth of the largest Swedish city regions.
Even though these development projects could theoretically be assumed by a private entity/investor, our impression is that the government would like to remain “in control” of and ripe the benefits of these major projects.
Jernhusen 24 October 2013
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Group Profile
100% state owned Jernhusen was incorporated in 2001 as part of a wider restructuring of the Swedish nation-
al railway sector, separating train operations, infrastructure management, and property
management. The company is 100% owned by the Kingdom of Sweden, and the owner-
ship is managed by the Ministry of Finance. The portfolio value was SEK10.6 bn at Q313.
Focus on rail related
properties
The company owns, manages and develops railway related properties throughout the main
lines in the Swedish railway network, including a number of train stations, maintenance
depots and cargo terminals. Jernhusen owns land in attractive locations, mainly close to
train stations, which the company develop over time.
Commerically
operated & financed
Jernhusen’s key objective is to contribute to an increased use of public and sustainable
transport. The company is operated and financed on commercial terms, and is organized in
four business areas:
Business dominated
by Stations
Significant project
development
Stations. A key area constituting 52% of portfolio value, 50% of rental revenues and 44%
of NOI (2012). It is dominated by retail outlets and resturants, and some offices, in 60
locations. Rental contracts normally include a fixed and a turnover based element.
City projects. Manages and develops projects close to stations, mainly in major cities.
Projects are typically divested at completion. It significantly reduced from an average
portfolio value of about 25% 2005-2011, following the 2012 disposal of Kungsbrohuset in
Stockholm, but is now on the rise given investments in the Stockholm City Station area.
Depots. 20 depots across Sweden with a YE12 market value of SEK2.8bn. Customers are
train operators and regional public transport authorities. Demand is growing on the back
of increased traffic volumes.
Cargo terminals. 13 cargo terminals with customers in the intermodal freight business. It
is relatively marginal to the overall business, and has lost traffic volumes to direct truck
operations for several years.
Figure 1: Business area composition 2012 (%) Figure 2: Revenue per property type 2012 (%)
Figure 3: Segment revenue and NOI-margin Figure 4: : Geographical revenue composition 2012
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Property value Rental revenues NOI
Stations City projects Depots Cargo terminalSource:Source:
0 10 20 30
Resturants and retail
Maintenance
Transport related offices
Construction
Office
Storage
Other
Source: Company report
0 20 40 60
Stockholm
Gothenburg
Malmö
Helsingborg
Örebro
Uppsala
Västerås
Other
Source: Company report
0
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200
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600
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1400
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 LTM Q2
2013
Stations City projects Depots
Cargo terminals EBIT-marginSource: Company report
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Business Operations
Credit supportive
portfolio structure
Low vacanies
Less cyclicality than
commercial properties
in general
We consider the overall composition of Jernhusens property portfolio as credit supportive.
In the Station, Depot and Cargo terminal segments, the specialty nature of the properties
means that entry barriers are very high, and that tennats have a high strategic interest in
maintaining long-term relationships (balancing short lease maturities of about one year in
Depots). In addition, the long-term trend is for increased traffic flow on the main lines of
the Swedish railway sector, especially in terms of passanger volumes, is underpinning
demand in the Station and Depot business. This is also illustrated by low vacancy levels
of about 5%.
We think that Jernhusens rental revenues are less cyclical than in the commercial property
sector in general. Rents in the Station business is partially linked to turnover, but given the
nature (low-cost fast food, newspapers, etc.), the demand is fairly stable, underpinned by
steadily growing passanger volumes. This balance the relatively short lease contracts.
Concentration to
major cities
The geographical location of Jernhusen’s portfolio is positive from a credit perspective.
As of year-end 2012 the vast part, or 84%, of Jernhusen’s portfolio value is concentrated
to the three largest regions in Sweden: Stockholm (48%), Gothenburg (18%) and Malmö
(8%). The properties are generally strategically located in city centres. Over the past years,
Jernhusen has divested a number of station buildings located in smaller cities to concen-
trate development in the major, growing urban areas.
Managable tennat
concentration risk
Jernhusen is exposed to some tennat concentration risk. The five largest tennats provide
about 45% of rental value (of which the state-owned railway operator SJ AB proving
20%). Meanwhile, the operations of the largest tennants are intristically linked to the
railway infrastructure, with basically no or few alternatives.
The project business
carries higher risks
The City project business overall increases Jernhusen’s business risk. A few projects are
of significant scale and long term horizon (e.g. the Stockholm and Gothenburg Central
stations). The main risks are related to project execution and letting at completion. Balanc-
ing this, Jernhusen requires certain level of pre-letting (depending on the project size), and
all major investment projects are subject to a board decision. Furthermore, the attractive
locations of the properties reduces letting risk considerably, in our view.
Figure 5: Tennant structure 2012 (%) Figure 6: Yield vs. 5-yr swap rate (%)
Figure 7: Lease expiery (% of total) Figure 8: Vacancy rates (%)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-
Share of rental revenuesSource: Company report
6%
20%
5%
9%
4%
56%
Reitan Servicehandel
SJ
Scandic Hotels
Euromaint Rail
ISS Facility Services
Övriga
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 LTM Q3
2013
Yield SEK 5 year swap rateSource: Company reports , Bloomberg
0
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4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0
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10
15
20
25
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 LTM Q3
2013
Area based vacancy rate Economic vacancy rateSource: Company reports
Jernhusen 24 October 2013
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Financial Profile
Figure 1: LTV (%) Figure 2: Rental income and earnings (SEKmn, %)
Figure 1: Capitalization ratios (%, x) Figure 2: EBITDA ICR (x)
Solid capital structure and financial performance
Moderate gearing
ratios
Jernhusen’s capital structure and leverage has fluctudated a bit over the years, reflecting
the impact from project development and portfolio adjustments. Meanwhile, the credit
measures are fair for a BBB credit. This includes an equity ratio of 35-43%, and a net
debt/equity averaging 135% over the last five years (40% and 120% by Q32013).
LTV fair for a BBB
credit
The LTV ratio has varied in the range of 53-60% in the 2008-2012 period (56% Q32013),
This is fair for a mid-BBB credit considering the stability of the business. LTV levels
could increase above 60% in the 2014-2016 given high investments. We are not concerned
given the stability of the business and attractiveness of properties development, and the
capacity to reduce LTV once projetcs are completed.
Moderate but stable
NOI-margins
Weak cash flow
measures is a sector
characteristic
Interest management
compares favorably
The NOI-margin has fluctuated between 43-50% since 2008. The trend has been declin-
ing, reducing to 41% LTM Q3 2013. The level is comparatively moderate in a peer group
perspective including commercial real estate companies, and reflect the more stable busi-
ness as well as considerable development features in the portfolio. Yield levels in Jern-
husens portfolio is average in our view at about 5-6% considering the strength of the port-
folio. Meanwhile, the company has struggled to meet its return on equity target of 12%,
reflecting significant developing activities in the magnitude of 10-15% of total portfolio
values and the high equity capitalization.
FFO/Net debt has fluctuated between 5% and 7% (5.4% 2012). This is weak compared to
most other sectors, but reflective of the real estate sector funding and cash generation pro-
file and hence constitute no major concern in our view.
The declining EBITDA ICR trend 2009-2012 has reversed, reaching a reported 3.1x at
Q22013 (3.2x 2012). This compares well to sector peers. The improvement reflects fairly
stable EBITDA levels combined with significantly reduced interest expenses given the
declining interest rate environment. Jernhusen has a well extended average interest rate
maturity of 4 years at Q3 2013, which will provide protection in a potentially raising inter-
est rate environment.
0,0x
1,0x
2,0x
3,0x
4,0x
5,0x
6,0x
7,0x
8,0x
0,0x
1,0x
2,0x
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8,0x
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q3
LTMSource: Company report
0%
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60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q3
LTM
Source: Company reportsSource:
48%
50%
52%
54%
56%
58%
60%
62%
48%
50%
52%
54%
56%
58%
60%
62%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q3
LTMSource: Company reports , Nordea
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q3
LTM
Total income NOI PMP
Source: Company reports
Jernhusen 24 October 2013
www.nordeamarkets.com 7
Funding and Liquidity on an improving trend
H1 2012 refinanicng
credit positive
A well diversified
funding structure
Jernhusen has traditionally relied on secured bank financing. During 2012, the company
has shifted towards market based funding, reducing the level of bank debt substantially
and lowering the utilization of bank facilities. Overall, we view the refinancing, including
debt maturity extension and lower secured LTV, as credit supportive
During H113, the company agreed several credit facilities totaling SEK4.65bn, replacing
the SEK6.7bn facility maturing H22013. Out of the new facilities, SEK3 bn is unsecured
(average maturity about 2 years), and aimed for back-up of the SEK3 bn CP program,
which was fully utilized at Q22013. A SEK1.65bn facility remain secured.
As part of the refinancing, the company has issued a total of SEK1.6 bn of bonds under its
SEK3 bn MTB-program. The refinancing has reduced the share of secured debt to a LTV
equivalent of 16% by Q22013, well in line with the company’s financial targets.
Change of control
protection
Jernhusen’s bonds contain change of control clauses should the Kingdom of Sweden re-
duce its ownership below 100% of shares and votes.
Adequate liquidity
bordering strong
Liquidity is adequate bordering strong, and one of our major, previous credit concerns
have now been addressed. The maturity profile has been extended by Q22013 to 2.8 years.
Short term debt maturities largely consist of CPs. Liquid assets consist of some SEK25-
100 mn in cash (seasonally fluctuating) and unutilized committed credit lines of
SEK4.65bn at Q2 2013).
. Financial policy provides adequate risk management
Financial policy is
balanced
Jernhusen has recently updated its financial policy. We generally consider the require-
ments as adequate and credit protective, even if the interest maturities policy allows for an
opportunistic application. Meanwhile, we understand that the company has historically
maintained considerable headroom to its policy levels, which is positive.
Figure 9: Debt and interest maturity profile Q313 (yrs) Figure 10: Loan portfolio Q313 (SEK bn)
Area Policy requirement Comment
Average debt maturity Minimun 2 years Positive, limits refinancing risk
Unutilized credit facility and liquidity/ST debt Minimum 100% Adequate
Secured funding LTV Maximum 200% Positive for bond holders
Average interest rate maturity 1-5 years Fairly generous/opportunistics
Interest maturities within 12 months Max 60% Fairly generous/opportunistic
ICR Minium 2x Adequate, sector standard
Equity ratio 35-45% Adequate, provide good tolerance
guidance
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000
Secured bank facilities
Unsecured bank facilities
Bonds (MTN)
CP
Overdraft facility
Other loans
Utilized FrameSource: Company reports
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 > 5
Interest DebtSource: Company report
Jernhusen 24 October 2013
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LTV and ICR Rental revenues and profitability
Key Financials
Key Financial Ratios and forecast
2013-2015 reflect a
peak in investments
Our 2013-2015 forecast incorporates a significant net investment level (SEK3.7 bn), with
a gradual increase in rental revenues and earnings (about 10% a year). Interest rates are
expected to trend up slightly towards 3% on average. We see significant room to trim
down gearing ratios, including LTVs once projects have been completed, as well as tem-
per investment activity to weakening market conditions.
0%
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100%
0
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800
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1 800
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Q3LTM
2013E 2014E 2015E
Total income NOI PMP NOI-margin
Source: Company reports
0,0x
1,0x
2,0x
3,0x
4,0x
5,0x
6,0x
7,0x
8,0x
48%
50%
52%
54%
56%
58%
60%
62%
64%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Q3LTM
2013E 2014E 2015E
Loan-to-value EBITDA interest coverage
Source: Company reports
Income statement (SEKm) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q3 LTM 2013E 2014E 2015E
Total income 868 1 014 1 094 1 161 1 140 1 140 1 277 1 430 1 601
Net operating income 405 453 498 549 508 471 541 606 678
Depreciation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Capital gains 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Central administration (37) (40) (46) (42) (41) (36) (40) (40) (40)
Items distorting comp. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Operating income 166 103 739 392 523 407 631 696 769
Property management profit (PMP) 368 414 452 507 468 435 338 371 397
Net financial expenses (124) (55) (99) (163) (182) (140) (163) (195) (241)
Pre-tax profit 42 48 641 229 341 267 468 501 528
Tax (paid) 11 (4) (151) (54) 222 3 100 100 100
Deferred tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit 53 43 490 175 564 270 568 601 628
Balance sheet (SEKm)
Properties 7 186 8 946 9 502 10 829 9 896 10 622 12 359 13 889 14 919
Other assets 651 768 900 744 744 680 744 744 744
Cash and bank 31 11 6 10 8 186 8 8 8
Total assets 7 868 9 726 10 407 11 583 10 648 11 488 13 111 14 641 15 671
Equity 3 121 3 618 4 011 4 088 4 555 4 669 4 556 5 056 5 197
Interest-bearing liabilities 4 042 5 279 5 347 6 484 5 268 5 931 7 093 8 491 9 380
Non-interest liabilities 401 520 591 498 526 529 1 162 794 794
Total liabilities and equity 7 868 9 726 10 407 11 583 10 648 11 488 13 111 14 641 15 671
Debt 4 042 5 279 5 347 6 484 5 268 5 931 7 093 8 491 9 380
Cash flow statement (SEKm)
FFO 204 345 357 349 282 267 338 371 398
Cash flow from operations 276 480 347 343 343 301 338 371 398
Investments (properties) (609) (2 129) (1 401) (1 161) (1 060) (1 188) (1 500) (1 500) (1 500)
Disposals (properties) 48 73 1 086 5 2 114 149 100 100 600
Dividends (100) (100) (100) (100) (100) (100) (100) (100) (100)
DPS 25 25 25 25 25 25 33 33 34
No of shares (m) 4 4 4 4 4 4 40 40 40
Discretionary cash flow (385) (1 676) (68) (913) 1 297 (838) (1 162) (1 129) (602)
Key ratios
Loan-to-value 56% 59% 56% 60% 53% 56% 57% 61% 63%
Equity ratio 40% 37% 39% 35% 43% 41% 35% 35% 33%
Debt/equity 130% 146% 133% 159% 116% 127% 156% 168% 180%
Debt/debt+equity 56% 59% 57% 61% 54% 56% 61% 63% 64%
EBITDA interest coverage 4,0x 7,1x 4,5x 3,0x 2,5x 2,9x 3,1x 2,9x 2,6x
EBITDA/(net interest plus dividends) 2,2x 2,5x 2,2x 1,9x 1,6x 1,7x 1,9x 1,9x 1,9x
FFO/debt 5,1% 6,5% 6,7% 5,4% 5,3% 4,5% 4,8% 4,4% 4,2%
FFO less dividends/debt 2,6% 4,6% 4,8% 3,8% 3,4% 2,8% 3,4% 3,2% 3,2%
Net rental income/interest 4,4x 10,6x 7,2x 4,7x 4,5x 5,0x 7,8x 7,3x 6,6x
Debt/EBITDA 8,2x 13,4x 12,1x 13,1x 11,5x 14,4x 14,2x 15,0x 14,7x
NOI-margin 46,6% 44,7% 45,5% 47,3% 44,6% 41,3% 42,4% 42,4% 42,4%
Property yield (actual) 11,3% 5,6% 5,4% 5,4% 5,2% 4,4% 4,9% 4,6% 4,7%
Jernhusen 24 October 2013
www.nordeamarkets.com 9
Peer Group Comparison
Government related property companies provide good peers
Jernhusen’s mix of commercial and transportation infrastructure policy related properties
with governent ownership implies that the most relevant peer group is found among other
government owned or related property companies.
Rikshem
Rikshem is a somewhat larger company focusing on residential, student and elderly
housing in Sweden, which carries lower business risk. Meanwhile, the financial profile is
weaker given a higher LTV (above 60%) and more aggressive funding (short debt and
interest maturities. The ownership support is weaker (50/50 by State Pension Fund 4
(AP4) and the AMF pension fund), but it has no government policy role.
Vasakronan
Vasakronan is a significantly larger company, focusing on CBD office and retail property
in the three major urban areas in Sweden. We see business risk as slightly higher than
Jernhusen. The financial profile is at par, with LTV and debt and interest maturities
roughly equal. We notch up the shadow rating on Vasakronan given the 100% ownership
by State Pension Funds 1-4, but consider that there is less room for an uplift given lack of
direct government ownership and absence of any government policy role.
Akademiska Hus
Fully government owned, Akademiska Hus provides facilities for Swedish universities
and colleges under long term contracts. The business risk is significantly lower than
Jernhusen, and financial risk is also lower given LTV levels. S&P’s standalone rating on
Akademiska Hus is aa-, with a one notch uplift.
Specialfastigheter
Fully government owned, Specialfastigheter provides offices and special property
facilities to the Swedish law enforcement sector (police and prisons), as well as some
military related facilities. This renders a significantly lower business risk, while financial
risk is comparable (e.g. similar LTV levels).
Hemsö Jernhusen Rikshem Vasakronan Akademiska Hus Special-fastigheter
Rating (S&P) -- -- A- -- AA AA+
Nordea shadow rating BBB+ A A- BBB+
Nordea (stand alone) BBB+ BBB A- BBB
Ownership 85% AP3,15% Sagax 100% Gov 50% AP,50% AMF 25% each AP1-4 100% Gov 100% Gov
CoC MTN <50% AP1-4 ownership 100% Gov 97% combined, 50/50
(no MTN, different in the
2 PPs)
51% AP1-4 50% Gov 100% Gov
Program MTN SEK6bn MTN SEK6bn MTN SEK25bn MTN SEK8bn MTN SEK10bn
(SEKm) (SEKm) (SEKm) (SEKm) (SEKm) (SEKm)
Gross rental income 1998 1161 1277 5 969 5 625 1 767
Net operating income 1369 508 672 4 272 3 585 1 354
Net income 635 564 -21 3 923 3 147 1 381
Funds from op. 415 282 116 2 432 2 588 934
Net investments 363 -1047 3054 435 2 388 1 094
Dividends 116 100 1 273 1 245 17
BV Properties 21518 9896 17100 84 074 54 677 19 169
Debt incl- shareholder loans 16686 5268 14091 43 217 24 301 9 584
Op. performance
Weighted avg lease mat (years) 7,5 2,9 13,2 4,3 5,1
Weighted avg debt mat (years) 3 2,8 1,2 2,7 6,5 3,3
Weighted avg interest mat (years) 2,8 4,8 3,6 4,5 3,4 2,4
Weighted avg cost of debt service 3,2% 3,2% 3,3% 2,8% 3,0%
Key ratios
Yield 6,4% 5,9% 3,9% 5,7% 7,1% 7,2%
NOI-margin 69% 44% 53% 72% 64% 77%
EBITDA interest cov 2,3x 3,2x 1,9x 2,7x 6,7x 6,3x
FFO/debt 2,5% 5,4% 0,8% 5,6% 10,6% 9,7%
Debt/EBITDA 12,2 10,4 21,0 13,1x 11,5x 13,2x
LTV incl. Shareholder loans 78% 49% 82% 51% 44% 50%
LTV excl. Shareholder loans 64% 49% 66% 51% 44% 50%
LTV secured debt 51% 16%* 41% 16% 0% 0%
RoE 22% 13% 12% 7% 24%
Disclaimer
Disclaimer and legal disclosures
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“Group Companies” or “Nordea Group”) acting through their unit Nordea Markets.
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Content of the publication or report This publication or report has been prepared solely by Nordea Markets.
Opinions or suggestions from Nordea Markets may deviate from recommendations or opinions presented by other departments or companies in the Nordea Group.
The reason may typically be the result of differing time horizons, methodologies, contexts o other factors.
Opinions and price targets are based on one or more methods of valuation, for instance cash flow analysis, use of multiples, behavioural technical analyses of under-lying market movements in combination with considerations of the market situation and the time horizon. Key assumptions of forecasts, price targets and projections in research cited or reproduced appear in the research material from the named sources. The date of publication appears from the research material cited or repro-duced. Opinions and estimates may be updated in subsequent versions of the publication or report, provided that the relevant company/issuer is treated anew in such
later versions of the publication or report.
This report has been reviewed, for the purpose of verification of fact or sequence of facts, by the Issuer of the relevant financial instruments mentioned in the report
prior to publication. The review has led to changes of facts in the report.
Validity of the publication or report All opinions and estimates in this publication or report are, regardless of source, given in good faith, and may only be valid as of the stated date of this publication or
report and are subject to change without notice.
No individual investment or tax advice The publication or report is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as the basis for any investment deci-sion. This publication or report has been prepared by Nordea Markets as general information for private use of investors to whom the publication or report has been distributed, but it is not intended as a personal recommendation of particular financial instruments or strategies and thus it does not provide individually tailored in-vestment advice, and does not take into account the individual investor’s particular financial situation, existing holdings or liabilities, investment knowledge and expe-rience, investment objective and horizon or risk profile and preferences. The investor must particularly ensure the suitability of an investment as regards his/her
financial and fiscal situation and investment objectives. The investor bears the risk of losses in connection with an investment.
Before acting on any information in this publication or report, it is recommendable to consult one’s financial advisor.
The information contained in this publication or report does not constitute advice on the tax consequences of making any particular investment decision. Each inves-
tor shall make his/her own appraisal of the tax and other financial merits of his/her investment.
Sources This publication or report may be based on or contain information, such as opinions, recommendations, estimates, price targets and valuations which emanate from:
Nordea Markets’ analysts or representatives,
Publicly available information,
Information from other units of the Group Companies or other companies in the Nordea Group, or
Other named sources.
To the extent this publication or report is based on or contain information emanating from other sources (“Other Sources”) than Nordea Markets (“External Infor-mation”), Nordea Markets has deemed the Other Sources to be reliable but neither the companies in the Nordea Group, others associated or affiliated with said
companies nor any other person, do guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the External Information.
The perception of opinions or recommendations such as Buy or Sell or similar expressions may vary and the definition is therefore shown in the research material or
on the website of each named source.
Limitation of liability Nordea Group or other associated and affiliated companies assume no liability as regards to any investment, divestment or retention decision taken by the investor on the basis of this publication or report. In no event will entities of the Nordea Group or other associated and affiliated companies be liable for direct, indirect or
incidental, special or consequential damages resulting from the information in this publication or report.
Risk information The risk of investing in certain financial instruments, including those mentioned in this document, is generally high, as their market value is exposed to a lot of differ-ent factors such as the operational and financial conditions of the relevant company, growth prospects, change in interest rates, the economic and political environ-ment, foreign exchange rates, shifts in market sentiments etc. Where an investment or security is denominated in a different currency to the investor’s currency of reference, changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of or from that investment to the investor. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Estimates of future performance are based on assumptions that may not be realized. When investing in individual shares, the investor
may loose all or part of the investments.
Conflicts of interest Companies in the Nordea Group, affiliates or staff of companies in the Nordea Group, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in,
or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives) of any company mentioned in the publication or report.
To limit possible conflicts of interest and counter the abuse of inside knowledge, the analysts of Nordea Markets are subject to internal rules on sound ethical con-duct, the management of inside information, handling of unpublished research material, contact with other units of the Group Companies and personal account deal-ing. The internal rules have been prepared in accordance with applicable legislation and relevant industry standards. The object of the internal rules is for example to ensure that no analyst will abuse or cause others to abuse confidential information. It is the policy of Nordea Markets that no link exists between revenues from capi-tal markets activities and individual analyst remuneration. The Group Companies are members of national stockbrokers’ associations in each of the countries in which the Group Companies have their head offices. Internal rules have been developed in accordance with recommendations issued by the stockbrokers associations.
This material has been prepared following the Nordea Conflict of Interest Policy, which may be viewed at www.nordea.com/mifid.
Important disclosures of interests regarding this research material are available at:
http://www.nordea.com/sitemod/upload/Root/www.nordea.com%20-%20uk/AboutNordea/Markets_Discloser_Disclaimer.pdf
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Disclaimer
Nordea Markets analysts do not hold shares in the companies that they cover.
No holdings or other affiliations by analysts or associates.
Recommendations definitions
Outperform
Over the next three months, the fixed income instrument's total
return is expected to exceed the total return of the relevant
benchmark.
Market perform
Over the next three months, the fixed income instrument's total
return is expected to be in line with the total return of the rele-
vant benchmark.
Underperform
Over the next three months, the fixed income instrument's total
return is expected to be below the total return of the relevant
benchmark.
All research is produced on an ad hoc basis and will be updat-
ed when the circumstances require it.
Distribution of recommendations
Market-making obligations and other significant
financial interests
Nordea has no market making or other significant obligations in
Jernhusen.
Corporate Finance transactions
Nordea Markets has no ongoing or completed public invest-
ment banking transactions with Jernhusen. In view of Nordea’s
position in its markets, readers should however assume that
the bank may currently (or may in the coming three months
and beyond) be providing or seeking to provide confidential
investment banking services to the company/companies re-
ferred to in this report.
Material interest held by the issuer in shares issued
by Nordea
Nordea Markets Credit Sales and Research Institutional Sales Sweden Ted Karlsson [email protected] +46 8 614 78 98 Tomas Köhlberg [email protected] +46 8 614 6702 Utta Wester [email protected] +46 8 614 6916 Cecilia Tannerfeldt [email protected] +46 8 614 8753 Martin Andersson [email protected] +46 8 614 82 14 Philip Erlandsson [email protected] +46 8 614 67 09 Institutional Sales Finland Jani Lindholm [email protected] +358 9 36950242 Henrik Haakana [email protected] +358 9 369 50214 Patrik Grönfors [email protected] +358 9 396 50354 Institutional Sales Finland Henrik Nielsen [email protected] +45 3333 1637 Lisbeth Rosendal [email protected] +45 3333 1869 Palle Lund Hansen [email protected] +45 3333 1635
Institutional Sales Norway Julie Ellneby [email protected] +47 22 48 77 06 Erich Normann [email protected] +47 2248 7782 Espen Froyn [email protected] +47 2248 7747 Kristian Sørensen [email protected] +47 2248 7846 John Hoel [email protected] +47 2248 7785 Petter Hermansen [email protected] +47 2248 7719 Hege M. Schuessler [email protected] +47 2248 7806 Morten Frimann-Dahl [email protected] +47 22 48 77 84 Stein Morten Sæther [email protected] +47 2248 7876 Kristoffer Johansen [email protected] +47 2248 7717 Christian Malde [email protected] +47 2248 7863 Kristoffer Solem Sletten [email protected] +47 22 48 79 50
Credit Research Mark Schindele [email protected] +46 8614 8201 Industrials & Utilities Andreas Zsiga [email protected] +46 8614 6203 Industrials Elina Kaltie [email protected] +358 9 369 59009 Pulp & Paper, Finnish Industrials Lars Kirkeby [email protected] +47 2248 4264 Norwegian Industrials Lars Husby Erichsen [email protected] +47 2248 7951 Norwegian Financials Nadia Bendriss nadia. [email protected] +47 2248 7956 Offshore & Oil Services Kristoffer B. Pedersen [email protected] +47 22 48 79 80 Offshore & Oil Services Anders R. Karlsen [email protected] +47 2248 4119 Shipping Morten Heiner Pedersen [email protected] +45 3333 1620 Credit Strategy & DK Industrials Michael Sandfort, CFA [email protected]
+45 3333 1621
Nordic Financials
Josefine Lund Christiansen
Nordea Markets is the name of the Markets departments of Nordea Bank Norge ASA, Nordea Bank Sverige AB (publ), Nordea Bank Finland Plc and
Nordea Bank Danmark A/S. Copyright Nordea Markets, 2001. Not approved for publication in the United States.
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