V章 物価と金融 - esri.go.jp · 数(wpi)と消費者物価指数(cpi)をプロッ トしたものである。図を見ると、1970代初頭ま では明らかにcpiの上昇率がwpiの上昇率を上
Cpi wpi and iip
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Dr Archana P i l l a i
IMT Hyderabad
Inflation Measures, Money Demand and Production
Linkages
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Inflation
Outside a shop where Christmas trees are being sold…
“Is it going to be the same size as last year or the same price as last year?”
Sustained increase in the general price levelGeneral Price Level – measured as consumer
prices and wholesale prices/industrial goods prices
More about value of money than about value of goods
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Related concepts
Velocity of money (P *Q)/M = V MV = PY (Fisher Equation)
Money Neutrality Assumes no role of money in the effect on real output Short run changes do happen Assumes no effect on production, wages and interest
rates Weak concept
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Types of inflation
CreepingCrawlingGallopingHyperinflationStagflation
Cost pushDemand pullHeadline vs Core (WPI – food and fuel)
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Cost push Inflation
Comes through increases in factor prices Wages Raw materials Affects the Aggregate supply Affects productivity
Wage push inflation Profit push inflation
By oligopolists or monopolists – greed to get more Wage price spiral
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Demand pull Inflation
Comes through increased goods demand Change in the Aggregate Demand function Changes in interest rates can affect demand Govt expenditure shifts AD Excessive foreign inflows affect AD
Inflationary gap The amount by which AD exceeds aggregate output at
full employment level Causes inflationary spiral
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Effects of Inflation
Income distribution Producers – profit earners gain
Wage Earners Depends on bargaining power
Retired/Aged Suffer from low value of savings
Investors Equity – gain; Interest earners – lose
Debtors/Creditors Debtors – gain; creditors - lose
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Effects…
Rent earners Fixed contracts – hurt
Effect on Wealth distributionEffect on Output and Employment
Leads to improvement in resource allocation Negative in terms of productivity losses
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Deflation
Persistent and appreciable fall in pricesWhere AD falls short of available outputPessimismLeads to idle capacity in various sectorsReverse multiplier gets into actionMEC falls
Inflation vs Deflation – former preferred (Why??)
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Stagflation
Unemployment, lack of growth and inflationRise in prices – causes fall in outputExpectations of future prices – also downwardNo incentive to borrow – since costs are highNo incentive to produce – since demand is lowNo incentive to consume – since prices are high
Kind of very low economic equilibrium – experienced by developed economies – US and Germany
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Other costs..
Shoeleather Costs Resources wasted when inflation encourages people
to reduce their money holdings and keep more money in banks (interest bearing assets)
Menu costs Costs of changing prices Printing, informing – customer annoyance costs
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Consumer Price Index
CPI – IW The CPI-IW purports to measure the temporal change in the
retail prices of fixed basket of goods and services being consumed by the target group i.e. an average working class family and thus, is an important indicator of the retail price situation in the country.
Used for determination of DACPI – AL/RW – to be done away withCPI – UrbanCPI – RuralCPI - combinedBase year 2013-14 = 100 (New)http://labourbureau.nic.in/indexes.htm
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CPI - Weights
Food, Beverages and tobacco (49.71)Fuel and light (9.49)Clothing, bedding and footwear (4.73)Housing (9.77)Misc (26.31)
Conduct of Income and Expenditure Survey (NSSO)
Organisation of price collection workHouse Rent surveys – rented and self-owned
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CPI..
Base year fixationMethod – Base year price * Base year
quantity; Current year price* Base year quantity
New base year 2010 – released in Feb 2011310 towns – 1114 price schedules – on
average 250 items per monthCPI (Rural) – 1181 villagesPrice collectors – Post officials
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Wholesale Price Index (2004-05)
Rationale to Compute WPIConcept of wholesale price
Agricultural commodities Non – agricultural (ex-factory gate price)
Wholesale price vs producer price – latter includes taxes and transport charges
Selection of items (total number of items – 676 in basket) Agricultural items (M/O Agriculture), National Horticulture
Board, Spices Board, Tea board, Coffee Board and Rubber Board, Silk Board, Directorate Of Tobacco, Cotton Corporation of India )
Organized manufacturing
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WPI…
ASI PricesUnorganized/unregistered manufacturing -
Own Account Enterprise (OAE), Directory Manufacturing Establishment (DME) and Non-Directory Manufacturing Establishment (NDME), Economic Census and its follow up surveys and Census of Registered SSI units
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WPI groups
Primary ArticlesFuel, Power, Light and LubricantsManufactured Products
Weightages – 20.11, 14.91 and 64.97Refer doc WPI weights - observations
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WPI vs CPI
Why different measuresImportance of bothMeasurement in India
Need for a consolidated indexCPI (Rural + Urban)
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Index of Industrial Production
Index of Industrial Production (IIP) is an abstract number, the magnitude of which represents the status of production in the industrial sector for a given period of time
Basic goodsCapital goodsIntermediate goodsConsumer durablesConsumer non-durables
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IIP..
543 itemsMethod of data collection – ASI dataWPI deflators – 2004-05 usedIndex of 6 core industries
26.7% weight – growth of 6.8% over previous year Crude Oil, Petroleum Refinery Products, Coal,
Electricity and Cement and Finished SteelRelevance of measureUsefulnessDrawbacks
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Relevant websites
www.labourbureau.gov.inwww.data.gov.inwww.indiabudget.nic.inwww.eaindustry.nic.inwww.rbi.org.inFor class tomorrow – readings on the RBI
website – money supply