SEPTEMBER 2020

Impacts to the urbanism next framework

urbanismnext.org

COVID-19 –Impacts on Cities and suburbs

AcknowledgementsThis report was written by:

Grace Kaplowitz Urbanism Next/UO

Nico Larco, AIA Urbanism Next /UO

Amanda Howell Urbanism Next/UO

TiffanySwift UrbanismNext/UO

Graphic design by:

MatthewStoll UrbanismNext/UO

URBANISM NEXT CENTER TheUrbanismNextCenterattheUniversityofOregonfocusesonunderstandingtheimpactsthatnewmobility,autonomousvehicles,e-commerce,andurbandeliveryarehavingandwillcontinuetohaveoncityform,design,anddevelopment.TheCenterdoesnotfocusontheemergingtechnologiesthemselves,butinsteadonthemulti-levelimpacts—howtheseinnovationsareaffectingthingslikelanduse,urbandesign,buildingdesign,transportation,andrealestateandtheimplicationstheseimpactshaveonequity,healthandsafety,theeconomy,andtheenvironment.Weworkdirectlywithpublicandprivatesectorleaderstodevisestrategiestotakeadvantageoftheopportunitiesandmitigatethechallengesofemergingtechnologies.UrbanismNextbringstogetherexpertsfromawiderangeofdisciplinesincludingplanning,design,development,business,andlawandworkswiththepublic,private,andacademicsectorstohelpcreatepositiveoutcomesfromtheimpendingchangesandchallengesconfrontingourcities.Learnmoreatwww.urbanismnext.org.

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Intro PriortoCOVID-19,UrbanismNextdevelopeda Framework*todescribethemulti-levelimpactsofemergingtechnologies–namely,newmobility,autonomousvehicles(AVs),ande-commerce–onthebuiltenvironment.WebelievethatCOVID-19hasdisruptedthetrajectoryoftheseemergingtechnologiesandwill,inturn,changesomeoftheassumptionsincludedinouroriginalframework.ThispaperoutlinesthespecificCOVID-19disruptionswehaveidentifiedandthepotentialchangestheywillcause.

This is the second paper in a series Urbanism NextisreleasingfocusedontheCOVID-19pandemic.ThefirstpapersummarizesourinitialfindingsontheimpactsofCOVID-19onthebuiltenvironment,providingbackgroundfortheCOVID-19disruptionsidentifiedinthispaper.

*www.urbanismnext.org/resources/urbanism-next-framework

2|COVID-19—ImpactsonCitiesandSuburbs|ImpactstotheUrbanismNextFramework

INCREASED DEMAND/PREVALENCE + Work from home (WFH). + Driving alone. + Goods and meal delivery. + Maturity of delivery business models. + E-commerce. + Bicycle purchases and use. + Tactical urbanism. + Fear of crowded public space. + Interest in automated

delivery devices.

DECREASED DEMAND/PREVALENCE - Transportation and travel. - Economic activity. - Dining out and number of

open restaurants. - Number of brick-and-mortar stores. - Number of small businesses. - Public transit ridership. - Public transit services and revenues. - Demand for transportation

network companies (TNCs). - E-scooter ridership and availability. - Interest in passenger AV technology. - Venture capital funding.

COVID DisruptionsThefollowingCOVID-19disruptionsaretrendsthatareinfluencing–andhavethepotentialtocontinueinfluencing–thepredictionsmadeandquestionsraisedintheUrbanismNextFramework.WebelievethatsomeoftheseCOVID-relatedchangescouldpersistbeyond

the“in-crisis”timeframeofthepandemicduetohabits,necessity,innovation,structuralshifts(e.g.theclosingofsmallbusinesses)orshiftsintrustbetweenthepublicorprivatesector.

TheCOVID-19disruptionswehaveidentifiedincludethefollowing:

INCREASED DEMAND/PREVALENCE + Increased work from home (WFH).StayathomeordersandeffortstoslowthespreadofCOVID-19haveledtolargeincreasesinthenumberofpeopleworkingfromhome1 with some companiesannouncingtheiremployeescanworkremotelyindefinitely.2

+ Increased driving alone. As travel began tobouncebackafterinitialshutdowns,peoplehaveshiftedawayfrompublictransit to avoid crowds and the possibility ofcatchingorspreadingCOVID-19.TheCDC also recommended driving alone intheirinitialguidanceforreopening.3 Thesefactorshaveledtoanincreaseinsingle-occupancyvehicle(SOV)trips.4

1 A.;Sun,Hugette,“AbilitytoWorkfromHome”;Zojceska,“COVID-19&WorkFromHomeStats.”2 UriBerliner,“GetAComfortableChair:PermanentWorkFromHomeIsComing,”NPR.org,June22,2020,https://www.npr.org/2020/06/22/870029658/get-a-comfortable-chair-permanent-work-from-home-is-coming.3 CamilaDomonoske,“CDCNowRecommendsDrivingAlone.ButWhatIfYouDon’tHaveACar?,”NPR.org,June16,2020,https://www.npr.org/2020/06/16/874750935/cdc-now-recommends-driving-alone-but-what-if-you-dont-have-a-car.4 SominiSenguptaandBradPlumer,“HowCitiesAreTryingtoAvertGridlockAfterCoronavirusLockdowns,”TheNewYorkTimes,June26,2020,sec.Climate,https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/climate/cities-cars-traffic-congestion.html.

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+ Increased goods and meal delivery. Goods and meal delivery have increased inpopularityaspeoplehaveshelteredat home and tried to avoid crowded places.5Inaddition,curbsidepickuphasskyrocketedforretailpurchases.6

+ Increased maturity of delivery business models.Asdemandfordeliveryhasincreased and many more companies havejumpedonboard,companiesareworkingonstreamliningandperfectingtheirbusinessmodelsandoperations.7

+ Increased e-commerce. There has been a rapid increase in online shopping as people have been staying home to reducetheirexposuretoCOVID-19.8

+ Increased bicycle purchases and use.9 Ratesofcyclinghaveincreasedandsalesareup,whichmaybeduetoseveralfactors:peoplemaybechoosingbicyclesforfunctionaltripssuchascommutinganderrandsratherthantakingpublictransit;peoplemaybeincreasingtheirtimeridingbicyclesasasafewayto

recreateandexercise;andmanycitieshavecreatedtemporaryorpermanentbikeinfrastructurethatcouldbeencouragingmorepeopletogetonbikes.10

+ Increased tactical urbanism. COVID-19hasinspiredcitiesgloballytousetacticalurbanismmethodsandquick-buildprinciplesforright-of-wayadaptations.11 Many cities have reallocatedstreetandsidewalkspaceforrestaurantsandretailbusinessestoexpandoutdoorsandforadditionalpublicspaceforwalking,biking,androlling.

+ Increased fear of crowded public space. TherapidtransmissionofCOVID-19hascreatedanincreasedfearofcrowdedspacesandpublictransit.12

+ Increased interest in automated delivery devices.Intheeraofsocialdistancing, there has been a renewed interestinautomateddeliverydevices(orpersonal delivery devices) that can deliver goodsandfoodwithouthumancontact.13

5 Statista,“GroceryDeliveryAppGrowthDuetoCoronavirusU.S.2020,”Statista,March2020,https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104519/grocery-delivery-app-growth-coronavirus-us/.6 AdobeAnalytics,“CurbsidePickupatRetailStoresIncrease208%DuringCoronavirusPandemic,”SupplyandDemandChainExecutive,May1,2020,https://www.sdcexec.com/transportation/press-release/21131320/adobe-curbside-pickup-at-retail-stores-increase-208-during-coronavirus-pandemic.7 Marc-AndréKameletal.,“HowtoRampUpOnlineGrocery—withoutBreakingtheBank,”Bain,July9,2020,https://www.bain.com/insights/how-to-ramp-up-online-grocery-without-breaking-the-bank/.8 StephanieCrets,“OnlineSalesTaperoffinJulyasRetailStoresReopen,”DigitalCommerce360,August11,2020,https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/article/coronavirus-impact-online-retail/.9 ChristinaGoldbaum,“ThinkingofBuyingaBike?GetReadyforaVeryLongWait-TheNewYorkTimes,”May18,2020,https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/18/nyregion/bike-shortage-coronavirus.html.10 SandraCaballeroandPhilippeRapin,“COVID-19MadeCitiesMoreBike-Friendly–HowtoKeepThemThatWay,”WorldEconomicForum,June19,2020,https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/06/covid-19-made-cities-more-bike-friendly-here-s-how-to-keep-them-that-way/.11 BeckySteckler,TiffanySwift,andCarlosPardo,“HowAreCommunitiesReallocatingtheStreetRight-of-WaytoSafelyAccommodateRecreationalandSocialActivitiesduringtheCOVID-19Pandemic?,”2020,https://www.covidmobilityworks.org/insights/how-are-communities-reallocating-the-street-right-of-way-to-safely-accommodate-recreational-and-social-activities-during-the-covid-19-pandemic.

4|COVID-19—ImpactsonCitiesandSuburbs|ImpactstotheUrbanismNextFramework

DECREASED DEMAND/PREVALENCE - Decreased transportation and travel. Stayathomeorders,increasedworkfromhome,remoteeducation,andclosed borders have all led to decreases intransportationandtraveloverall.14

- Decreased economic activity. Temporary andpermanentbusinessclosuresandtravelreductionshaveresultedindecreasedeconomic activity overall triggering widespreadrecessions.15IntheU.S.,thepandemichasledtomassiveunemploymentandbusinessclosuresaswell.16

- Decreased dining out and decreased number of open restaurants. RestaurantswereinitiallyshutdowninmanystatestoslowthespreadofCOVID-19andhavesincestruggledtostayafloatwithstrictphysicaldistancingandreducedhoursinplace.17

- Decreased number of brick-and-mortar stores. The temporary government economicshutdownmeasuresusedtoslowthespreadofCOVID-19andtheoverall decrease in economic activity paired with an increase in e-commerce haveledtomanybrick-and-mortarstoresshuttingtheirdoors.18

- Decreased number of small businesses. Smallbusinessesthatregularlyoperateat the margins have been hit the hardestintermsofbusinessclosuresduringtheCOVID-19pandemic.19

- Decreased public transit ridership. Publictransitridershiphasseendrasticdecreases as people are traveling less,workingfromhomemore,andafraidofcrowdedpublicplaces.20

12 FeargusO’Sullivan,“LondonersHaveBecomeAfraidofPublicTransit,”Bloomberg.Com,June12,2020,https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-12/fear-of-public-transit-remains-high-in-london.13 NACS,“COVID-19SpeedsRoboticDeliveryImprovements,”May21,2020,https://www.convenience.org/Media/Daily/2020/May/21/6-COVID-19-Robotic-Delivery-Improvements_Tech.14 JeremySungandYannickMonschauer,“ChangesinTransportBehaviourduringtheCovid-19Crisis,”IEA,May27,2020,https://www.iea.org/articles/changes-in-transport-behaviour-during-the-covid-19-crisis.15 TheWorldBank,“TheGlobalEconomicOutlookDuringtheCOVID-19Pandemic:AChangedWorld,”WorldBank,June8,2020,https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2020/06/08/the-global-economic-outlook-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-a-changed-world.16 BenCasselman,“ACollapseThatWipedOut5YearsofGrowth,WithNoBounceinSight,”TheNewYorkTimes,July30,2020,sec.Business,https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/30/business/economy/q2-gdp-coronavirus-economy.html.17 Yelp,“IncreasedConsumerInterestinMayCorrelateswithCOVID-19HotSpotsinJune,AccordingtotheYelpEconomicAverage,”YelpEconomicAverage,2020,https://www.yelpeconomicaverage.com/yea-q2-2020.18 JenniferA.Kingson,“TheCoronavirusIsCausingaSlow-MotionRetailApocalypse,”Axios,July6,2020,https://www.axios.com/retail-apocalypse-coronavirus-stores-closing-77b8adf0-2cd1-499c-9375-fb3e05af0730.html.19 EmilyFlitter,“‘ICan’tKeepDoingThis:’Small-BusinessOwnersAreGivingUp,”TheNewYorkTimes,July13,2020,sec.Business,https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/13/business/small-businesses-coronavirus.html.20 AlejandroDeLaGarza,“COVID-19HasBeen‘Apocalyptic’forPublicTransit.WillCongressOfferMoreHelp?,”Time,July21,2020,https://time.com/5869375/public-transit-coronavirus-covid/.

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- Decreased public transit services and revenues.21 Transit providers have hadfarlessrevenueduetodecreasedridershipandsomeagenciesmakingfarestemporarilyfreetolimittheriskofspreadingCOVID-19.Atthesametime,theircostshaveincreasedsignificantlyinordertoaddadditionalsafetymeasurestotransitservices.Thishasleftmanytransitagencieswithbudgetdeficitsandreducedservices.

- Decreased demand for transportation network companies (TNCs). The decrease in transportation overall has decreased ridership across modes includingTNCs.22 In addition, there are uncertaintiesassociatedwiththeriskofshared ride models and TNC rides are generally more expensive than other modes, so as people have less disposable incomedemandhasdecreased.

- Decreased e-scooter ridership and availability.E-scooterridershiphadskyrocketedin201923beforeCOVID-19andthendrasticallyfellduringthepandemic.ItisgraduallyincreasingagainbutremainsatlowerlevelsthanbeforeCOVID-19.Manycompanieshavepulledtheirvehiclesfromcitystreets,laidoffstaff,orshutdownoperationsentirely.24

- Decreased interest in passenger AV technology. Themomentumfortestinganddeploying passenger AV technology has beenreducedasaresultofthepandemicanddeclininginterestinridesharing.25

- Decreased venture capital funding. New mobility companies have historically dependedonventurecapitalandhaveyettoproveprofitability.SincetheonsetoftheCOVID-19pandemic,fundinghasbecomelessavailable.26

21 RegionalTransportationDistrict(RTD),“FinancialImpactsofCOVID-19WillReshapeAgencies’FutureTransitService,”RTD-Denver,August19,2020,https://www.rtd-denver.com/news-stop/news/financial-impacts-of-covid-19-will-reshape-agencies-future-transit-service.22 ShannonBond,“HowUberAndItsRidersAreAdaptingToTheNew‘Social,’”NPR.org,June10,2020,https://www.npr.org/2020/06/10/873499410/how-uber-and-its-riders-are-adapting-to-the-new-social.23 NACTO,“SharedMicromobilityintheU.S.:2019,”NationalAssociationofCityTransportationOfficials,2020,https://nacto.org/shared-micromobility-2018.24 KerstenHeineke,BenediktKloss,andDariusScurtu,“TheFutureofMicromobility:RidershipandRevenueafteraCrisis,”July16,2020,https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/the-future-of-micromobility-ridership-and-revenue-after-a-crisis.25 KaleaHall,“CoronavirusPresentsObstaclesforAutonomousVehicles,”May26,2020,https://www.govtech.com/fs/transportation/Coronavirus-Presents-Obstacles-for-Autonomous-Vehicles.html.26 PaulLienert,“U.S.MobilityStartupsFeeltheChillfromtheCOVID-19Crisis,”Reuters,March18,2020,https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-autos-mobility-idUSKBN2153C9.

6|COVID-19—ImpactsonCitiesandSuburbs|ImpactstotheUrbanismNextFramework

Forces of Change COVID-19 DisruptionsPriortoCOVID-19,UrbanismNextidentifiednew mobility and AVs, mobility as a service, ande-commerceandurbandeliveryas“forcesofchange”thatcouldwidelyimpactthebuiltenvironmentincities.COVID-19hasdisruptedthepre-pandemictrajectoryofthese“forcesofchange”,drasticallyacceleratingthe

adoptionofe-commerceandurbandeliverywhile new mobility, AVs, and mobility as a servicefacegreateruncertaintythaneverbefore.ThissectionoutlineshowCOVID-19couldinfluencethecontinueddevelopmentandtrajectoryoftheforcesofchange.

NEW MOBILITY/AVSPriortoCOVID-19,newmobilityservicesincludingmicromobility,microtransit,andTNCswerebeingrapidlypilotedanddeployed.WhileTNCshaveyettoturnaprofit,theyhavebecomeubiquitousoncitystreets.E-scootershaveseentremendousgrowthinthemicromobilityspaceinthepastfewyears,withdevicescrowdingsidewalksandstreets,andmultipleoperatorsvyingformarket

share.Carmanufacturersandautonomoustechnology companies have received large sumsofventurecapitalfundingtoinnovateandtestAVtechnologies.Sincethestartofthepandemic,however,theoutlookhaschangedandthefollowingfactorscouldchangethetrendsandoutcomesofnewmobility/AVsthatweprojectedpre-COVID-19:

New mobility / Avs

Mobility as a Service

E-commerce /

Urban delivery

Forces of change

Factors that could increase demand for new mobility/AVs:

decreasedpublictransitservices decreasedtransitrevenues.

Factors that could decrease demand for new mobility/AVs:

decreased transportation and travel, increasedworkfromhome,increaseddrivingalone.

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Factors that could shift TNC company business models:

Decreased TNC ridership and increased goods and meal delivery and e-commerce mayfurtheracceleratetheshiftawayfrompassengerservicestowardsdelivery.Thedevelopmentofsharedridemodels(e.g.,UberPool,LyftLine)islikelytobediminished, at least in the short-term, as peopleshyawayfromsharingenclosedspaceswithstrangers.Areductionintheavailabilityofventurecapitalcouldmeanlessexperimentation and investment in models thatmaylosemoneyintheshortterm.Ontheflipside,fundersmaymovecompaniestowardsnarrowermodelsandusecasesthathaveagreateropportunityforprofitability.

Factors that could shift micromobility:

Decreased e-scooter ridership and availability couldposechallengestoe-scooterbusinessmodelsbutcouldalsoleaveafewcompanieswithopportunitiesforacquisitions,marketconsolidation, and less competition in the long-term.Anincreaseintemporary,tacticalurbanismcyclinginfrastructurecouldbecomepermanentandmakemicromobilitysaferandmoreinvitingtoawiderrangeofusers.

Factors that could shift AV development:

Decreased interest in passenger AV technologywilllikelyextendthetimelinesforpassengerAVdeploymentswhilemoreinterestinautomateddeliverydevicesmayshiftthefocusofAVcompaniestowardsdeliveryvehicles.

8|COVID-19—ImpactsonCitiesandSuburbs|ImpactstotheUrbanismNextFramework

MOBILITY AS A SERVICE (MAAS)MobilityasaService(MaaS)platformsallowsriderstoroute,reserveandpayfortrips,acrossavarietyofmodes,viaasingleapp.Priortothepandemic,multiplepublicand private sector entities were testing MaaSplatformsinternationally.Now,manyoftheCOVID-19disruptionsarecreatinganuncertainfutureforMaaSandthenewmobilitycompaniesthatcouldpotentiallyoperateunderMaaSumbrellas.ThefollowingfactorscouldchangetheoutcomeofMaaS:

E-COMMERCEPriortoCOVID-19,e-commercewasbecomingincreasinglypopularandwidespread.Theconditionsofthepandemichaveacceleratedtheadoptionofe-commercealongsidethereductioninnumberofbrick-and-mortarstores.Thefollowingfactorscouldchangetheoutcomeofe-commerce:

Factors that could increase MaaS interest/demand:

AlthoughseenasaminorforceinincreasingMaaSinterest,decreasedpublictransitservices and/or increased driving alone couldpropelpotentialriderstosearchforalternativetransportationoptions.

Factors that could decrease MaaS interest/demand:

Decreased transportation and travel, decreasedpublictransitridership,decreasedservicesandrevenues,decreased TNC ridership, decreased e-scooter ridership and availability, and decreased interest in passenger AV technologyareallfactorsthatcouldposebarrierstoMaaSplatformsandintegratedmobilitysolutions.Inaddition,increasedworkfromhome,drivingalone,andbicyclepurchasescouldindicatethat people are changing their travel behaviors to avoid options where they sharevehiclesorspacewithothers.

Factors that could increase demand for e-commerce:

decreased transportation, travel, andnumberofbrick-and-mortarstores,increasedworkfromhome,increaseddemandforgoodsandmealdelivery,increasedfearofcrowdedpublicspace,andincreasedinterestinautomateddeliverydevices.

Factors that could decrease demand for e-commerce:

reducedeconomicactivity.

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URBAN DELIVERYLikee-commerce,urbandeliverypatternswerealreadyshiftingbeforeCOVID-19ase-commercecontinuedtoexpandandgoods/mealdeliveryincreasedinpopularity.COVID-19hasquicklyacceleratedtheurbandeliverytrendbringinghigherratesofgoods/meal delivery associated with increased online ordering and desire to maintain physical distancing.Thefollowingfactorscouldchangetheoutcomeofurbandelivery:

Factors that could increase demand for urban delivery:

decreased transportation and travel, decreasednumberofbrick-and-mortarstoresandsmallbusinesses,increasedworkfromhome,e-commerce,andincreasedmaturityofdeliverybusinessmodels(duetovastlyincreaseduse)that allow companies to provide better,moreprofitableservice.

Factors that could decrease demand for urban delivery:

reducedeconomicactivity.

10|COVID-19—ImpactsonCitiesandSuburbs|ImpactstotheUrbanismNextFramework

First Order Impacts COVID-19 Disruptions ThissectionoutlinesthefirstorderimpactsintheUrbanismNextFrameworkandCOVID-19disruptionsthatcouldincreaseordecreasethedemand/salienceoftheseimpacts.PriortoCOVID-19,weprojectedthattheForcesofChange(newmobility/AVs,e-commerce,urbandelivery,MaaS)wouldleadtothefollowing

firstorderimpacts.WecurrentlybelievethatCOVID-19hasaccelerated,altered,orhaltedthesepreviouspredictions.WhilewedonotyetknowwhatdirectionCOVID-19willultimatelypushthefirst-orderimpactstowards,wehaveidentifiedvariablesthatwilllikelydisruptthetrajectoryofeachoftheseareas.

first order impactsCHANGE IN GOODS & MEAL DELIVERY

CHANGE IN VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED

SHIFT IN MODES

REDUCTION OF BRICK-AND-MORTAR STORES

CHANGE IN CONGESTION

CHANGE IN EASE OF TRAVEL

COMPETITION FOR THE RIGHT-OF-WAY

SHIFTING NATURE OF FREIGHT

CHANGE IN DEMAND FOR WAREHOUSING SPACE

INCREASING INTEREST IN EXPERIENTIAL RETAIL

CHANGE IN PARKING DEMAND

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Work from home (WFH)

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E-scooters and number of companies

Public transit services and revenues

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TNC ridership

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COVID-19 DISRUPTION EFFECTS ON FIRST ORDER IMPACTS

12|COVID-19—ImpactsonCitiesandSuburbs|ImpactstotheUrbanismNextFramework

Factors that could increase VMT:

-Publictransitridershipandservices+ Driving alone+ Goods and meal delivery

Factors that could decrease VMT:

- Transportation and travel -Economicactivity-Diningoutandnumberofrestaurants- TNC ridership +Workfromhome+Bicyclepurchasesanduse.

Factors that could increase demand for parking:

-Publictransitridership-Publictransitservicesandrevenues+ Driving alone +Tacticalurbanism

Factors that could decrease demand for parking:

- Transportation and travel-Economicactivity-Diningoutandnumberofrestaurants-Numberofsmallbusinesses+Workfromhome+Bicyclepurchasesanduse

CHANGE IN PARKING DEMAND Parkingisoneofthemostprominentlandusesinurbanareasandamajorsourceofrevenueforcities.PriortoCOVID-19,wewereconsideringafuturewhereAVsandNewMobilitydrasticallyreducedtheneedforparking.Thepandemichasdisruptedtravel,shopping,andworkhabitswhichcouldinturnshiftthedemandforparking.

CHANGE IN VEHICLE MILES TRAVELEDVehicle miles traveled (VMT) are among the largestcontributingfactorstogreenhousegas(GHG) emissions and climate change in the UnitedStates.VMTarealsoamajorcauseofcongestionandvehiclecrashes,injuries,andfatalities.COVID-19couldfurtherincreaseorreduceoverallVMTdependingonwhichdisruptivetrendstakeholdinthelong-term.

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Factors that could increase ease of travel:

+Workfromhome+Tacticalurbanism

Factors that could decrease ease of travel:

-Publictransitridership-Publictransitservicesandrevenues- TNC ridership -E-scooterridershipandavailability+ Driving alone + Goods and meal delivery

Factors that could increase congestion:

-Publictransitservices+ Driving alone + Goods and meal delivery

Factors that could decrease congestion:

- Transportation and travel-Economicactivity-Diningoutandnumberofrestaurants- TNC ridership +Workfromhome+Bicyclepurchasesanduse

CHANGE IN CONGESTIONCongestion has become commonplace in urbanareasandoftengoeshandinhandwithcommuting.Congestionisalsoknowntocausechronicstress,increasedpollutionandenvironmentaljusticeissues.Itremainstobeseenhowlevelsofcongestionwillbeimpactedinthelong-termasaresultofCOVID-19.

CHANGE IN EASE OF TRAVELTheaccessibilityofdifferentdestinationsandtheamountpeopletravelisdirectlytiedtotheease–andcost–ofthattravel.COVID-19couldstructurallyshifttransportationoptionswhichwouldhaveasignificant,andpotentiallyinequitable,impactontravelease.

14|COVID-19—ImpactsonCitiesandSuburbs|ImpactstotheUrbanismNextFramework

SHIFT IN MODESItiswidelyacknowledgedthatsingleoccupancyvehicles(SOVs)arecontributingtocongestion,pollution,andautomobilecrashes,injuries,andfatalitiesacrossthecountry.COVID-19temporarilyputapauseonmuchtransportationasawholeandcouldprovideimpetusforpeopletoshifttheirtravelbehaviors(SOVs,transit,micromobility,etc)asweadjustto“in-crisis”and“post-crisis”life.

COMPETITION FOR THE RIGHT-OF-WAY

Theright-of-wayisahugepublicassetthathasbeenpredominantlydedicatedtoautomobilesforthepastcentury.COVID-19hashighlightedtheimportanceofoutdoor,publicspaceandthe ability to physically distance which is oftenimpossibleinlimitedsidewalkspaces.COVID-19hasincreasedthedemandforactivetransportationinfrastructureandreclaimingright-of-wayforrestaurants/retail/publicspace.Therehasalsobeenincreasedneedforcurbmanagementtoaccommodatepick-up/drop-offzonesandno-contactdeliveries.

Factors that could increase mode shift:

-Publictransitservices- TNC ridership - E-scooterridershipandavailability+ Bicyclepurchasesanduse+ Workfromhome+ Tacticalurbanism

Factors that could decrease mode shift:

- Transportation and travel - Publictransitridership+ Driving alone

Factors that could increase competition for the right-of-way:

+ Goods and meal delivery+Bicyclepurchasesanduse+Tacticalurbanism+Interestinautomateddeliverydevices+ Driving alone

Factors that could decrease competition for the right-of-way:

- Transportation and travel -Numberofbrick-and-mortarstores-Smallbusinesses- TNC ridership -E-scooterridershipandavailability,- Interest in passenger AV technology

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CHANGE IN GOODS & MEAL DELIVERYThedemandforgoodsandmealdeliverieswasalreadyincreasingbeforethepandemicandone-andtwo-daydeliverieshaveaccustomedmanycustomerstotheconveniencedeliveryservicescanoffer.COVID-19hasrapidlyacceleratedthepre-pandemictrendofincreasingdemandfordeliveryservices.

SHIFTING NATURE OF FREIGHTThedevelopment/possibilityofautonomoustruckingcouldradicallyshiftthewaygoodsaretransportedanddeliveredonlong-haultrips.COVID-19hasrenewedinterestinautonomoustruckingandinvestmentasdevelopers have come to learn that highways aremucheasiertonavigatethancitystreets,thedemandforautonomouspassengervehiclesiscurrentlydown,andthepandemichasremindedpeopleaboutthevalueandimportanceofsupplychains.Truckdeliverydrivershelpedkeepstoresstockedduringtheinitialwaveofpanicbuyingandwhennearlyeverythingelsewasshutdown.

Factors that could increase goods & meal delivery:

- Transportation and travel -Diningoutandnumberofrestaurants-Numberofbrick-and-mortarstores-Smallbusinesses+Workfromhome+ Goods and meal delivery +E-commerce+Fearofcrowdedpublicspace

Factors that could decrease goods & meal delivery:

-Economicactivity

Factors that could increase changing nature of freight:

+ Goods and meal delivery +Maturityofdeliverybusinessmodels+E-commerce+Interestinautomateddeliverydevices- Interest in passenger AV technology

Factors that could decrease changing nature of freight:

-Economicactivity-Numberofbrick-and-mortarstores-Smallbusinesses-Venturecapitalfunding

16|COVID-19—ImpactsonCitiesandSuburbs|ImpactstotheUrbanismNextFramework

CHANGE IN DEMAND FOR WAREHOUSING SPACE

PriortoCOVID-19,thedemandforwarehousingspace,typeofspace,andlocationwaschanging alongside e-commerce and delivery patterns.Fulfillmentcentersareneededclosertocitycenterstoprovidecustomerswithshortdeliverywindows.Sincetheonsetofthepandemic, some big box stores have closed brick-and-mortarlocationsinfavorofconvertingthemtoe-commercefulfillmentcenters.

REDUCTION OF BRICK-AND-MORTAR STORES

Duetotheaccelerationofe-commerceandbusinessessuchasAmazonandWalmartthatofferaone-stop(online)shopforahugevarietyofconsumergoods,wewerealreadyprojectingareductionofbrick-and-mortarstorespriortoCOVID-19.Theeconomicdevastationofthepandemicandincreaseddesireforsocialdistancinghasquicklyexacerbatedthistrend.

Factors that could increase demand for warehousing space:

-Numberofbrick-and-mortarstores-Smallbusinesses+ Goods and meal delivery+E-commerce.

Factors that could decrease demand for warehousing space:

-Economicactivity.

Factors that could increase the number of brick-and-mortar stores:

ItisunlikelythatanyoftheCOVID-19factorsoutlinedintheintroductionofthispapercouldincreasethenumberofbrick-and-mortarstores.However,additionalfactorsthatcouldstillbeadoptedtoincreasethenumberofbrick-and-mortarstoresincludegovernmentintervention(e.g.funding,vaccineproduction)oruniversalmaskadoption(tomakepeoplefeelmorecomfortablegoingintostores).

Factors that could decrease the number of brick-and-mortar stores:

- Transportation and travel -Economicactivity-Diningoutandnumberofrestaurants-Numberofbrick-and-mortarstores-Smallbusinesses+ Workfromhome+ Goods and meal delivery + E-commerce+ Fearofcrowdedpublicspace

September2020|UrbanismNext|UniversityofOregon|17

INCREASING INTEREST IN EXPERIENTIAL RETAIL

PriortotheonsetoftheCOVID-19pandemicthere was an increased interest in experiential retail.Businesseswerefindingcreativewaystoattractcustomerstotheirstorestocompetewiththeconvenienceofe-commerceandone-andtwo-daydeliveries.InthecontextofCOVID-19,thistrendhasbeenhaltedasstay at home orders and physical distancing areenforced.Itremainstobeseenwhetherthistrendwillpickbackup“post-crisis”.

Factors that could increase the interest in experiential retail:

Therearenofactors,asidefromapent-updesireforsocialinteraction,thatwillincreaseexperientialretailduringthepandemic.

Factors that could decrease the interest in experiential retail:

+ Goods and meal delivery +E-commerce+Fearofcrowdedpublicspace-Diningoutandnumberofrestaurants,-Numberofbrick-and-mortarstores

18|COVID-19—ImpactsonCitiesandSuburbs|ImpactstotheUrbanismNextFramework

Multi-Level ImpactsThissectiondetailsthemulti-levelimpactsoftheUrbanismNextFrameworkandthewaystheyhaveshiftedduetoCOVID-19.ItfollowstheoriginalFrameworkstructurecommentsoneachsectionoftheFramework.Italsoincludes

additionalconsiderationsforrespondingtoCOVID-19,whichareobservationsthatwerenotincludedintheoriginalFrameworkandthatwebelieveareessentialforrespondingtoandrecoveringfromthepandemic.

MUL

TI-L

EVEL

Impa

cts

URBAN DESIGN

parking (urban form)

Street Design

metropolitan footprint

centers & corridors

densification

Sense of place

• need for flexiblity• street space• open space• commercial streets• urban v. suburban

development• semi-public space

LAND USE

Retail/Commercial/Office

Housing

Parks & open space

Warehouse/industrial

auto-oriented uses

• need for flexibility• long-term

rebalancing

Building design

+

++

September2020|UrbanismNext|UniversityofOregon|19

TRANSPORTATION

Parking (transportation)

biking & micromobility

walking

vehicle ownership

• short-term decisions have long-term consequences

• decreased TNC ridership

TRANSIT

real estate

quality

buzz/vitality

project feasibility

land value

Location & context

Building design

parking (Building Design)

• More space needed• increased ventilation

& air filtration• home office• elevators

& high-rise buildings• private yards

& balconies

Programmatic shifts

Street relationship

delivery management

• eviction prevention

• shifts in demand

• development stagnation

• loss of rent (and cascading impacts)

++

20|COVID-19—ImpactsonCitiesandSuburbs|ImpactstotheUrbanismNextFramework

COVID-19 DISRUPTION EFFECTS ON MULTI-LEVEL IMPACTS

reta

il/co

mm

erci

al/o

ffic

e

Multi-Level IMPACTSLand Use urban design building design

hous

ing

park

s & o

pen

spac

e

war

ehou

se/i

ndus

tria

l

auto

-ori

ente

d us

es

met

ropo

litan

foot

prin

t

cent

ers &

cor

rido

rs

stre

et d

esig

n

park

ing

(ura

n fo

rm)

dens

ifica

tion

sens

e of p

lace

Stre

et r

elat

ions

hip

prog

ram

mat

ic sh

ifts

deliv

ery

man

agem

ent

park

ing

COVI

D-19

Dis

rupt

ions

park

ing

(tra

nspo

rtat

ion)

KEY

vehi

cle o

wne

rshi

p

land

valu

e

proj

ect f

easi

bilit

y

buzz

/vita

lity

qual

ity

loca

tion

& c

onte

xt

transportation real estate

wal

king

biki

ng &

mic

rom

obili

ty

tran

sit

COVI

D-19

Dis

rupt

ions

+ IN

CR

EASE

D- D

ECR

EASE

D

Tactical urbanism

Work from home (WFH)

Transportation and travel

Economic activity

Bicycle purchases and use

Driving alone

Fear of crowded public space

Goods and meal delivery

Maturity of delivery business model

E-scooters and number of companies

Public transit services and revenues

Public transit ridership

Venture capital funding

TNC ridership

Interest in passenger AV technology

Number of brick-and-mortar stores

Small businesses

Dining out and number of restaurants

Interest in automated delivery devices

E-commerce

more impact

most impact

no/minimal impact

some impact

September2020|UrbanismNext|UniversityofOregon|21

park

ing

(tra

nspo

rtat

ion)

KEY

vehi

cle o

wne

rshi

p

land

valu

e

proj

ect f

easi

bilit

y

buzz

/vita

lity

qual

ity

loca

tion

& c

onte

xt

transportation real estate

wal

king

biki

ng &

mic

rom

obili

ty

tran

sit

COVI

D-19

Dis

rupt

ions

+ IN

CR

EASE

D- D

ECR

EASE

D

Tactical urbanism

Work from home (WFH)

Transportation and travel

Economic activity

Bicycle purchases and use

Driving alone

Fear of crowded public space

Goods and meal delivery

Maturity of delivery business model

E-scooters and number of companies

Public transit services and revenues

Public transit ridership

Venture capital funding

TNC ridership

Interest in passenger AV technology

Number of brick-and-mortar stores

Small businesses

Dining out and number of restaurants

Interest in automated delivery devices

E-commerce

more impact

most impact

no/minimal impact

some impact

22|COVID-19—ImpactsonCitiesandSuburbs|ImpactstotheUrbanismNextFramework

LAND USERETAIL/COMMERCIAL/OFFICE

Thechangingnatureoftravel,employment,andshoppingbroughtaboutbytheforcesofchangeareonlybeingexasperatedbyCOVID-19disruptions.Therecouldbelargedropsindemandforretail,commercial,andofficespaceasbusinessesfaceclosures,demandfore-commerceincreases,andofficesremainvacantasmorepeopleworkfromhome.Thiscouldleadtoasurplusintheamountoflandzonedfortheseuses.

HOUSINGQuestionsaboutwhetherpeoplewhocanchoosewheretheylivewillcontinuetolocateincitiesormovefartheroutintothesuburbshave been reignited as many people can workremotelyandarelessphysicallytiedtotheirplacesofemploymentthaneverbefore.COVID-19couldalsodecreasetheviabilityofincreasinghousingthroughinfillduetofearsofdensity/crowdingor,conversely,couldeventuallyincreasetheviabilityduetoincreaseddemandsforaffordablehousing.

PARKS & OPEN SPACECOVID-19hashighlightedtheimportanceofopenspacetocommunityhealthandwellbeing.Manycitiesaroundtheworldhaveusedtacticalurbanismmethodsto(atleasttemporarily)convertparkingspacesandright-of-wayforotherpublicandquasi-publicuses.Thishaslikelyonlybeguntounlockthepotentialofopportunitiestoreclaimparkingspacesandstreetright-of-wayforotheropenspaceuses.

WAREHOUSE/INDUSTRIALCOVID-19hasincreaseddemandfore-commercewhichislikelytoalsoacceleratedemandforwarehousinganddistributioncenters.Itremainstobeseenwhetherthisdevelopmentwillprimarilyoccuronindustriallandoroccupymoretypesoflandusesmovingforward.Somecloseddepartmentstores and malls are already being converted intofulfillmentcenters,raisingthepossibilitythatwarehouseswilloccupymorecommercialandotherlandusesmovingforward.

AUTO-ORIENTED USESCOVID-19hasincreaseddrivingaloneandaddedtotheuncertaintyofthefutureofAVs.Itisunlikelythatlanddedicatedtoauto-orienteduseswillbecomeavailableforredevelopmentintheshort-term.

Additional Land Use topics to consider in responding to COVID-19:

NEED FOR FLEXIBILITYAsCOVID-19hascausedquickdemandchanges(suchasuseofpublicspaceforrestaurants),zoningwillneedtobeflexibletohelpaddresseconomicrecession,assistsmallbusinesses,andaddresshousingneeds.

LONG TERM REBALANCING Reduceddemandsforofficeandretailspacecouldleadtoalong-termrebalancingintheamountoflanddedicatedtotheseuses.

September2020|UrbanismNext|UniversityofOregon|23

24|COVID-19—ImpactsonCitiesandSuburbs|ImpactstotheUrbanismNextFramework

URBAN DESIGNMETROPOLITAN FOOTPRINT

COVID-19hasincreasedworkfromhomeandgoodsdeliveryandpausedorshutdownmanyoftheartsandentertainmentattractionsthatdrawpeopletourbanareas.Theseshiftscouldinfluencethefootprintofcitiesasproximitytoworkplacesandgoods/servicesmaynolongerbeenoughtoattractpeopletodensecitycenters.

CENTERS & CORRIDORSCOVID-19hasthreatenedtransitsystemsacrossthecountryduetodecreasedridershipandrevenues.Thiscouldnegativelyimpactwhethernewmobilitysupportstransittostrengthencurrentnodesandcorridors.Thiscouldleadtolong-termissuesofdispersalandcontinuouslow-densitydevelopment.Conversely,ashifttoworkfromhomecouldspuraneedforvibrantneighborhoodcentersasworkerslookforamenitiesandservicesneartheirhomes.

STREET DESIGNCOVID-19hashighlightedtheimportanceofmultimodalstreetsandmanymunicipalitieshave accelerated their experimenting with temporarysolutionstopromotewalkingandbiking.Ascitiesmakeplansforfutureexpansions,changestotheirstreetnetwork,andoverallstreet-design,theyshouldconsiderthelessonslearnedduringthepandemicregardingdemandformultimodalinfrastructureandthecontinuedgeographicinequitiesandaccessibilityconsiderations.

PARKING (URBAN FORM)Wepreviouslypredictedtheforcesofchangewouldleadtoareducedneedforparking,whichisnowunlikelyduetoCOVID-19iftheshareofpeopledrivingaloneincreases.Inaddition,someparkinglotshavebeenconvertedintorestaurantspacetokeepbusinessesafloatwhichreducesparkingsupply.Thesecompetingtrendswillmostprobablyplayoutdifferentlyindifferentgeographiesandurbanforms.

DENSIFICATIONCOVID-19hasraisedquestionsaboutthehealthandsafetyofurbandensificationandcrowding(twoseparateissuesthathavebeencombinedinmuchofthepublicdiscourseonthistopic).InadditiontohowandwhereAVsand new mobility will increase or decrease development density, it remains to be seen howCOVID-19couldshiftpublicperceptionofdensityandtheviabilityofinfilldevelopment.

SENSE OF PLACESenseofplaceiscomingintoquestioninnewwaysasmanyofthebusiness,shoppingdistricts, and neighborhood amenities that tiecommunitiestogetherhavebeenforcedtoshutdownorreducetheirservices.Theincreaseine-commerceandworkfromhomehavemadeiteasierforsomepeopletobeabletoshop,liveandtravelfromanywhere,buthavesimultaneouslydiminishedtheidentityandvitalityofmanyurbanareas.

September2020|UrbanismNext|UniversityofOregon|25

Additional Urban Design topics to consider in responding to COVID-19:

NEED FOR FLEXIBILITYEspeciallyinordertoincreasetheamountandequitabledistributionofparksandopenspaces.

STREET SPACEQuestionsremainabouttheequitableapplicationofincreaseduseofpublicright-of-wayforprivatebusinessesandactivetransportationinfrastructure,andthelongevityofthechanges

SEMI-PUBLIC SPACETheareabetweenbuildingsandthestreetisincreasinglybeingusedasaspaceforsociallydistancedinteraction.

OPEN SPACEIncreaseddemandforopenspaceinurbanareasasareleaseforapartmentliving.

COMMERCIAL STREETSIfworkfromhomecontinues,theremaybeariseindemandforneighborhoodcommercialareasandhavingwalkingaccesstothem.

URBAN VS. SUBURBAN DEVELOPMENT

Ifremoteworkand/ortheneedtostayathomepersists,theremaybeafurtherdemandforsuburbanareasthatofferyardsandlargerhousesforthosewhocanaffordit.

BUILDING DESIGNSTREET RELATIONSHIP

PriortoCOVID-19,wepredictednewmobilitywouldleadtoareducedneedforparkingwhichcouldallowbuildingstodirectlyaddressandframethestreet.However,COVID-19hasslowedanychangesinparkingdemand,socurrentconditionsarelikelytoremainconstant.Inaddition,COVID-19hascreatedconditionswheremorebusinessessuchasrestaurantsandretailwanttoexpandintosidewalksandstreetsasoutdoorextensionsoftheirspacestoallowforphysicaldistancingandairflow.

PROGRAMMATIC SHIFTSPriortoCOVID-19,wepredictednewmobilitywouldleadtoreducedneedforparkingwhichcouldshifthowgroundfloorsareused.However,COVID-19hasslowedanychangesinparkingdemand,socurrentconditionsarelikelytoremainconstant.However,therecouldbechangestospaceswithinthehome(numberandsizeofrooms)andhowtheyareutilizedwithincreaseddemandforhomeofficesandoutdoorspacestoaccommodatepeoplespendingmoretimeintheirhouses.

26|COVID-19—ImpactsonCitiesandSuburbs|ImpactstotheUrbanismNextFramework

Additional Building Design topics to consider in responding to COVID-19:

MORE SPACE NEEDEDIftheneedforsocialdistancingwithinbuildingspersists,officespaceswillneedtoberedesignedtoincludemorespaceperpersonandreducedcommonareas.

HOME OFFICEWiththeincreaseofworkfromhome,thedemandfordedicatedhomeofficespaces(increasednumberofroomsinhousing)couldincrease.

ELEVATORS & HIGH-RISE BUILDINGSAs elevators and shared hallways pose increasedriskforinfection,thedemandforhigh-risebuildingscoulddiminish.

INCREASED VENTILATION & AIR FILTRATION

Tolimitexposurewithinbuildings,spaces can adopt higher ventilation ratesandincreasedairfiltering.

PRIVATE YARDS & BALCONIESAccesstooutdoorspacehasbecomeahighervaluedcommodityandthedemandforprivateoutdoorspacecouldincreaseaspeoplespendmoretimeathome.

DELIVERY MANAGEMENTCOVID-19hasquicklyacceleratedtheadoptionofe-commerceandurbandelivery.Increasesinpackagedeliveryfrome-commercecouldacceleratechangestothegroundfloorofbuildingincludingtheincorporatingofdeliverylockers,andtheenlargingandmoreprominentlocationofmailroomsandstorageareas.

PARKINGCOVID-19hasdisruptedourpreviouspredictionsthatnewmobilitywouldcauseareductionintheneedforparking.Therecouldbeanincreaseddemandforparkingifpeopledonotreturntopublictransitanddrivingaloneaccelerates.However,ifworkfromhomecontinuesandoveralltravelandtransportationremainslowered,therecouldbeareductionintheneedforparkingandmoreparkingspotscouldbeadaptedtomeetthedemandforoutdoorpublicandprivatespace.

September2020|UrbanismNext|UniversityofOregon|27

TRANSPORTATIONWALKING

Theimportanceofsafewalkinginfrastructurehasbeenhighlightedas,duringthepandemic,manypeoplewalkintheirneighborhoodsforexercise,errandsandrelaxation.ThedeploymentofpassengerAVsislikelytobedelayedduetoCOVID-19,butconsiderationssurroundingregulatingpedestrian/AVcollisionscouldremainfordeliveryAVsifthetechnologyacceleratesalongsidedemand.

BIKING & MICROMOBILITYE-scootercompanieswereyettoproveprofitabilitybeforethepandemicandtheirserviceshavebeenwidelydisrupted,facinguncertaindemandandremovalofvehiclesfromsomemarkets.Atthesametime,citiesareprioritizingactivetransportationinfrastructure,cyclingusehasrisendramatically,andpeoplearesearchingforalternativestopublictransit.Itremainstobeseenifsharedmicromobilitysystemsfeaturingbikes,e-bikes,ande-scooterswillcontinuetheircurrentratesofgrowthandhowtheymightcontinuetointegratewithothertransportationmodes.

TRANSITDecreasedridershipduetofearofCOVID-19transmission, overall decreased travel, and increasedworkfromhomecouldleadtoongoingreducedserviceprovisionandfinancialchallengesfortransitagencies.Thiswillseverelychallengecities’abilitiestokeeptransit,whichisessentialformeetingequityand environmental transportation goals, afloat.Thefutureoftransitserviceavailabilitycouldlargelydependongovernmentrecoveryprioritiesandhowitallocatesaidfunds.

PARKING (TRANSPORTATION)AVshavebeenpredictedtocauseparkingdemandtodropdramatically.COVID-19seemstohaveputawrenchinquickAVdevelopments,anditisunlikelythatparkingdemandwilldeclinedrasticallyintheshort-term.Ifautouseincreases,demandforofficeparkingcouldincreasesubstantially,particularlyincentralcities.Forrestaurantsandlocalretail,parkingmaybeconvertedtooutdoorseatingandretailspace.Parkingcouldalsobedesignatedfore-commercepickup/dropoffzones.

VEHICLE OWNERSHIPNewmobility(includingAVs)mightplayaroleinreducingthedemandforvehicleownershipinthelong-term,especiallyifAVsrolloutinsharedfleets.However,intheshort-termCOVID-19couldincreasethedemandforvehicleownershipifpeopleremainafraidtotakepublictransitandTNCusebecomesmorelimited.

28|COVID-19—ImpactsonCitiesandSuburbs|ImpactstotheUrbanismNextFramework

Additional Transportation topics to consider in responding to COVID-19:

SHORT-TERM DECISIONS HAVE LONG-TERM CONSEQUENCES

Immediateactionssuchascriticalcarpurchasesduringthepandemicwillaffectbehaviorinthelong-term.Influencingtheseshort-termdecisionstoshapelong-termoutcomeswillbeacriticalroleofthepublicsector.

TNCSDecreasedridershipduetofearofCOVID-19transmission, decreased transportation and travel,andincreasedworkfromhomecouldfurtherstrainprofitabilityofTNCcompaniesandinfluencebusinessmodelshiftstowardsgoodsandmealdelivery.Inaddition,thereisanincreasedriskofinfectionforTNCdriversandCOVID-19hasfurtherexposedthevulnerabilitiesofgig-economyworkerssuchasTNCpassengeranddeliverydrivers.

REAL ESTATELAND VALUE

Withunprecedentedvolatility,estimatingthenear-andlong-termvalueofpropertiesisdifficulttoascertain.This,initself,couldlimitrealestatedevelopmentandinvestment.

PROJECT FEASIBILITY ThepredicteddecreaseinparkingneedandimpactstoprojectfeasibilitywilllikelybedelayedduetoCOVID-19.Newdisruptionstoprojectfeasibilityhaveemergedincludinguncertaintiesinoveralleconomy,demandforcommercialandoffice,andapotentialshiftinhousinglocationandamenitypreferences.

BUZZ/VITALITYThefeaturesandamenitiesthatoncedrewpeopletoliveinurbanareashavebeendisruptedandmayfacelong-termconsequencesasthepandemicspecificallylimitssocialinteraction.Theentertainmentindustrycouldbeinfluxforsometime,

and it remains to be seen how important this is in determining where people want to congregate (when congregating is perceived assafe).Creating“buzz”intheworldofCOVID-19posesanewrealmofchallenges.

QUALITYAs people spend more time in their homes and in neighborhood centers, the design qualityoftheseareascouldbecomeincreasinglyimportantinattractingactivity.

LOCATION & CONTEXTWithincreasedworkfromhomeande-commerceaswellasdecreasednumberofsmallbusinesses,diningoutandnumberofrestaurants,andeconomicactivity,COVID-19couldleadtoareductionintheimportanceofproximitytocitycenters.Atthesametime,anincreaseinworkingfromhomecouldincreasetheimportanceofproximitytoactiveandattractiveneighborhoodcenters.

September2020|UrbanismNext|UniversityofOregon|29

Additional Real Estate topics to consider in responding to COVID-19:

SHIFTS IN DEMAND (BY SECTOR)COVID-19couldleadtoshiftsinhousingdemand–particularlyrelatedtohousingtypes(singlefamilyvsmultifamily,low-risevshigh-rise)andtenure(ownershipvsrental).Hotels,office,retail/restaurant,indoormallscouldallseereduceddemandduetoshiftsinwherewework,shopandtravel.Conversely,warehousescouldseeincreaseddemandduetotheshiftine-commerce.

SHIFTS IN DEMAND (BY GEOGRAPHY)

Wecouldseeshiftsindemandinurbanversussuburbanversusruralareasifyoungpeopleleavebigcitiesorifthereislessactivityandfewervisitsduetoworkfromhome.Smalltownandruralhousing/retaildemandcouldincreasesubstantially.

STAGNATION OF DEVELOPMENTDuetocontinueduncertaintyastothelengthandseverityofCOVID-19impacts,therecouldbeseverereductionofnewdevelopmentandinvestment.

EVICTION PREVENTIONThere is an increased need to prevent an accelerationoftheevictioncrisis,whilealsobalancingthestabilityoftheoverallrealestateinvestmentmarket.Governmentinterventionmaybeoneofthefewwaystodothis.

LOSS OF RENT (AND ITS CASCADING IMPACTS)

Economicrecessioncouldhaveacascadingimpactasjoblossesleadtoreducedrentpayments,evictions,lossestopropertyownersandeventuallylossesforbanksandREITs.

30|COVID-19—ImpactsonCitiesandSuburbs|ImpactstotheUrbanismNextFramework

Considerations Outside Scope of FrameworkWhileUrbanismNextfocusesonthetopicsaboveandinourFramework,wewouldliketoacknowledgeadditionalimpactsofCOVID-19outsidethescopeofourtypicalworkthatwethinkareimportanttoconsidertogainaholisticunderstandofCOVID-19anditspotentiallywidespreadimpacts.Thissectionoutlinesthesetopics.

SYSTEMIC RACISMTheCOVID-19pandemichasuncoveredandexacerbatedmanyofthehealth,income,accesstoparksandopenspace,andpolicinginequitiesBIPOCcommunitiesalreadyfacedduetosystemicracism.

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTSReducedtravelandmanufacturinghadimmediate,positiveimpactsonairqualityin metropolitan areas internationally, butastravelandmanufacturinghavereturnedsohasthepollutiontheycreate.Thiscouldbeexacerbatedifmoreenvironmentallyfriendlytravelmodes,suchastransit,aregreatlydiminished.

ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICEEnvironmentaljusticeissuessuchasheatislands,airpollution,andurbannoisehavesurfacedaspeopleareforcedtospendmoretimeathomeandintheirneighborhoods.

TRAVEL/TOURISMThefutureoftravel/tourismremainsuncertainand places that have historically depended economicallyontourismarefacingmajorchallenges.RecreationandbusinesstravelcouldcontinuetobeseverelyreducedaspeopleadapttonewCOVID-19routines.

INTERNATIONAL BORDERSMany international borders have closed throughoutthepandemicandcouldremainclosedforunknownlengthsoftime.Thiswilllikelyhavelong-termimpactsonmanysectorsandoninternationalrelations.

DIGITAL DIVIDECOVID-19hasmadeaccesstotechnologyandinternetevenmoreintegraltodailylifeandmeetingourbasicneeds.ThishasputaspotlightontheunevenaccesstotechnologyintheUSandthroughouttheworld/

PARENTINGClosedschoolsandchildcarefacilitieshaveleftmanyparentsstrugglingtomanageworking(remotelyornot)whilecaretakingfortheirchildrenandtryingtoprovidethemwitheducation.

REMOTE EDUCATIONRemoteeducationdidn’tgooververywellinthespringof2020,andnowitlooksmoreandmorelikeitwillcontinueinmanyplacesintothe2020-2021schoolyear.Thiscouldhavelastingandun-equalimpacts.

UNSAFE LIVING CONDITIONSHomeisnotalwaysasafeplaceformanypeople(whohavetheprivilegeofhavingahome)duetophysical,verbal,oremotionalabuseorunsafelivingconditions.Peopleexperiencinghomelessnessareuniquelyvulnerable,especiallywhentheylackaccesstohealthorsanitationservices.

September2020|UrbanismNext|UniversityofOregon|31

ConclusionNot knowing everything about the future does not mean we do not know anything about the future.WhilewecannotpredictexactlywhatthefuturewillholdintermsoftheareasweresearchandthedegreeofimpactCOVID-19willhaveonthem,itisclearthatthispandemicwillshapethefutureofhowweliveincitiesinsomeways.ThispaperismeanttoserveasaframeworkforunderstandingtheCOVID-19disruptionswehaveidentifiedandthepotentialchangestheymaycausetotheforcesofchangeandfirst-andmulti-levelimpactswestudy.

Wehopethispapercanhelptoillustratetheconnectionsbetweenareassuchaslanduse,transportation,andurbandesignanddemonstrate the cascading impacts that eachoftheCOVID-19disruptionscouldhave.Policymakerswillhavevaryinglevelsofinfluenceovertheoutcomesofeachofthesedisruptions,andwehopethiscanbeusedasatoolkittohelpshapethefuturetowardsoutcomesthatpromotethepublicgood.

image credits:

1. cover: Photoholgic, Unsplash. 2. pg 1: Kate Trifo, Unsplash. 3. pg 7: Ben Garratt, Unsplash.

4. pg 9: Clay Banks, Unsplash. 5. pg 13: Osman YunusBekcan, Unsplash. 6. pg 17: Victor Xok, Unsplash.

7. pg 23: Anastase Maragos, Unsplash. 8. pg 31: Sand Crain, Unsplash.

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