Cover Headline on Two Lines Lorem Ipsum Dorem Lorem Nu May 2019 Investor...Delivering On Our...

31
Investor Presentation May 2019 May 15, 2019

Transcript of Cover Headline on Two Lines Lorem Ipsum Dorem Lorem Nu May 2019 Investor...Delivering On Our...

Page 1: Cover Headline on Two Lines Lorem Ipsum Dorem Lorem Nu May 2019 Investor...Delivering On Our Strategic Priorities 5 •Achieved $621M of run-rate synergies as at March 31, 2019, 24

Investor PresentationMay 2019

May 15, 2019

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Forward Looking Statements 2

Note: All dollar amounts are stated in US dollars throughout the presentation unless otherwise noted.May 15, 2019

Certain statements and other information included in this presentation constitute "forward-looking information" or "forward-looking statements" (collectively, "forward-looking statements") under applicable

securities laws (such statements are often accompanied by words such as "anticipate", “forecast”, "expect", "believe", "may", "will", "should", "estimate", "intend" or other similar words). All statements in this

presentation, other than those relating to historical information or current conditions, are forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to: Nutrien's 2019 annual and first half guidance, including

expectations regarding our diluted earnings per share and BITDA (both consolidated and by segment); capital spending expectations for 2019; expectations regarding performance of our segments in 2019;

our market outlook for 2019, agriculture and Retail and crop nutrient markets including anticipated supply and demand for our products and services, expected market and industry conditions with respect to

crop nutrient application rates, planted acres, crop mix, prices and the impact of market fluctuation and import and export volume expectations regarding completion of previously announced expansion

projects (including timing and volumes of production associated therewith) and acquisitions and divestitures; and the expected synergies associated with the merger of Agrium and PotashCorp, including

timing thereof. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control, which could cause actual results to differ materially

from such forward-looking statements. As such, undue reliance should not be placed on these forward-looking statements.

All of the forward-looking statements are qualified by the assumptions that are stated or inherent in such forward-looking statements, including the assumptions referred to below and elsewhere in this

document. Although Nutrien believes that these assumptions are reasonable, this list is not exhaustive of the factors that may affect any of the forward-looking statements and the reader should not place

an undue reliance on these assumptions and such forward-looking statements. The additional key assumptions that have been made include, among other things, assumptions with respect to Nutrien's

ability to successfully integrate and realize the anticipated benefits of its already completed (including the merger of Agrium and PotashCorp) and future acquisitions, and that we will be able to implement

our standards, controls, procedures and policies at any acquired businesses to realize the expected synergies; that future business, regulatory and industry conditions will be within the parameters expected

by Nutrien, including with respect to prices, margins, demand, supply, product availability, supplier agreements, availability and cost of labor and interest, exchange and effective tax rates; the completion of

our expansion projects on schedule, as planned and on budget; assumptions with respect to global economic conditions and the accuracy of our market outlook expectations for 2019 and in the future; the

adequacy of our cash generated from operations and our ability to access our credit facilities or capital markets for additional sources of financing; our ability to identify suitable candidates for acquisitions

and divestitures and negotiate acceptable terms; ability to maintain investment grade rating and achieve our performance targets; assumptions in respect of our ability to sell equity positions including the

ability to find suitable buyers at expected prices and successful completion of such transactions in a timely manner; the receipt, on time, of all necessary permits, utilities and project approvals with respect

to our expansion projects and that we will have the resources necessary to meet the projects’ approach.

Events or circumstances that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to: general global economic, market and business

conditions; the failure to successfully integrate and realize the expected synergies associated with the merger of Agrium and PotashCorp, including within the expected timeframe; weather conditions,

including impacts from regional flooding and/or drought conditions; crop planted acreage, yield and prices; the supply and demand and price levels for our products; governmental and regulatory

requirements and actions by governmental authorities, including changes in government policy, government ownership requirements, changes in environmental, tax and other laws or regulations and the

interpretation thereof; political risks, including civil unrest, actions by armed groups or conflict and malicious acts including terrorism; the occurrence of a major environmental or safety incident; innovation

and security risks related to our systems; the inability to find suitable buyers for our equity positions and counterparty and transaction risk associated therewith; regional natural gas supply restrictions;

counterparty and sovereign risk; delays in completion of turnarounds at our major facilities; gas supply interruptions at our Egyptian and Argentinian facilities; any significant impairment of the carrying value

of certain assets; risks related to reputational loss; certain complications that may arise in our mining processes; the ability to attract, engage and retain skilled employees and strikes or other forms of work

stoppages; and other risk factors detailed from time to time in Agrium, PotashCorp and Nutrien reports filed with the Canadian securities regulators and the Securities and Exchange Commission in the

United States. The purpose of our expected adjusted earnings per share and adjusted consolidated EBITDA and EBITDA by segment guidance range is to assist readers in understanding our expected and

targeted financial results, and this information may not be appropriate for other purposes.

Non-IFRS Financial Measures Advisory

We consider adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net earnings per share, Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net earnings per share guidance, Potash Cash cost of product manufactured (COPM), urea controllable

cash COPM, all of which are non-IFRS financial measures, to provide useful information to both management and investors in measuring our financial performance and financial condition. Refer to the

disclosure under the heading “Appendix B - Non-IFRS Measures” included in our news release dated May 9, 2019 announcing our first quarter 2019 results, as filed on SEDAR at www.sedar.com and

EDGAR at www.sec.gov under our corporate profile, for a reconciliation of these non-IFRS financial measures to the most directly comparable measures calculated in accordance with IFRS and for a

further discussion of how these measures are calculated and their usefulness to users including management. Non-IFRS financial measures are not recognized measures under IFRS and our method of

calculation may not be comparable to that of other companies. These non-IFRS financial measures should not be considered as a substitute for, or superior to, measures of financial performance prepared

in accordance with IFRS.

Nutrien disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements in this document as a result of new information or future events, except as may be required under applicable

U.S. federal securities laws or applicable Canadian securities legislation.

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Nutrien Has a Unique Global Footprint 3

LEGEND:

RETAIL

POTASH

NITROGEN

PHOSPHATE

ESN®

GRANULATION

LOVELAND PRODUCTS AND AFFILIATED FACILITIES

AGRICHEM

INVESTMENTS AND JV’S

OFFICES

South AmericaNorth American Integrated Footprint

Australia

~27MmtCombined sales

tonnes1 of potash, nitrogen, phosphate

& sulfate

$621MAnnual synergies at end of March 2019

$1.72Annual dividend

per share2

>1,700Retail locations in 7 countries

~63MShares

repurchased since February 2018

NOTE: European distribution and our ownership stakes in Sinofert and the MOPCO nitrogen facility are not included on these maps.

1. 2018 sales volumes

2. Based on Nutrien quarterly dividend declared December 14, 2018. Future dividends subject to board discretion. Source: Nutrien

May 15, 2019

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~38%

~27%

~7%

~28%

Diversified Portfolio Provides Stability and Growth 4

Retail

Phosphate

and Sulfate

Nitrogen

Potash

Adjusted EBITDA1 Split (2018)Percentage

1. This is a Non-IFRS measure. Refer to the Forward Looking Statements and Non-IFRS Financial Measures in Management's Discussion & Analysis included in Nutrien’s 2018 Annual Report.

2. Based on the mid-point of Nutrien’s adjusted EBITDA guidance range as of February 6, 2019.

Adjusted EBITDA1

US$ Billions

May 15, 2019

3.0

3.94.7

2019F2017

55%

2

Source: Nutrien

2018

18%

Significant earnings growth delivered in 2018 and expect strong growth again in 2019

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Delivering On Our Strategic Priorities 5

• Achieved $621M of run-rate synergies as at March

31, 2019, 24 percent above original target

• $5.3B of net proceeds from required equity

divestments

• Allocated nearly $1B to highly accretive Retail

acquisitions since January 2019

• Investing in digital platform to transform Ag

Retail space

• Evaluating brownfield nitrogen expansionsGrowth

Initiatives

Integration &

Synergies

1 Based on Nutrien’s quarterly dividend declared on November 5, 2018.

Source: Nutrien

May 15, 2019

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Returns to Shareholders is Delivering Value

May 15, 20191 SHAREHOLDER RETURNS BASED ON LTM DIVIDENDS PAID AND SHARES REPURCHASED PER FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FOR NTR AND PEER GROUP AS DEFINED IN 2019 PROXY.

MARKET CAPITALIZATION AS OF MARKET CLOSE AT MARCH 31, 2019.

2. PEER GROUP CONSISTS OF BUNGE LTD., K+S AG, INGREDION INC., INCITEC PIVOT LTD., MOSAIC CO., ARCHER DANIELS MIDLAND CO., AGCO CORP., DEERE & CO., FMC CORP.,

ISRAEL CHEMICALS LTD., YARA INTERNATIONAL ASA, CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS, INC.,

6

Dividends Paid and Share Repurchases

US$ Billions

Return of Capital to Shareholders

Percentage of Market Cap1

$4.5B returned to shareholders since 2018 creating long-term value

2018 2019 YTD Cumulative

2.8

1.7 4.5

Repurchases

Dividends10%

4%

Nutrien Peer Group Average

2

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Market Fundamentals and Performance

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Crop Fundamentals are Improving

US Planted Acreage2

Million Acres

Corn Stocks-to-Use Percent

8

Source: USDA, Nutrien

0

10

20

30

40

50

2017 2018 2019F

Nutrients Seed CPP

US Crop Input Expenditures3

US$ Billions, nominal

1 Represents the 2016/17, 2017/18, and 2018/19 growing year for the World and 2017/18, 2018/19 and 2019/20 for the US2 Based on the USDA March Prospective Planting Report.3 Crop input expenditures shown are on a crop year basis, so not directly comparable with Retail revenues.

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

2017 2018 2019F

Corn Soybeans

Expect higher US corn acreage and crop input expenditures in 2019

May 15, 2019

1

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2017 2018 2019F

US World

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$769

$951$986

$1,119

$1,033$1,091

$1,145$1,206

$1,350

7.5%

8.3% 8.3%8.6% 8.5%

9.3%9.5% 9.5%

$0

$300

$600

$900

$1,200

$1,500

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F

Retail EBITDA (US$ Millions) Retail EBITDA Margin %

$6.01

$6.67$6.15

$4.11$3.71 $3.48 $3.36 $3.47

9

May 15, 2019

Source: USDA, Nutrien

Note: 2011-2016 data is based upon legacy Agrium financials. 2017 comparative figures are the historical combined results of legacy Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. and Agrium Inc. and

are considered to be non-IFRS measures.

1. Based on the mid-point of Retail EBITDA guidance range as of February 6, 2019.

Corn Price US$/Bu

Retail: Delivering Stable Long-term Growth

Retail ProfileUnits of Measure

Resilient Retail EBITDA despite lower crop price environment

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70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

Potash:

Global Supply & Demand Outlook Stable

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Demand*

Operational Capability

Global Potash S&DMillion Tonnes KCl

Global Utilization Rate1

Percent

10

May 15, 20191 Based on estimated operational capability. Forecast utilization rate range based on high and low demand forecast.

* Demand growth range based on 20 year CAGR (2002 to 2022) of 2.8 to 3.0 percent. 5-year forecast range of 2.3 to 3.3 percent.Source: CRU, Fertecon, IFA, Nutrien

Expect demand growth and capacity closures to offset capacity additions; operating

rates expected to be at or above historical average

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Potash: World’s Largest Producer; Lower-Cost Operations

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

10.8Mmt

12.2Mmt

~5Mmt

5.0

2016 2017 2018 ProductionCapability

12.8Mmt

Potash Production1

Million Tonnes KCl

Cost of Goods Sold2

US$/Tonne (Combined1Cash-related)

1. This is a Non-IFRS measure and/or the historical combined results of PotashCorp and Agrium. Refer to the Forward Looking Statements and Non-IFRS Financial Measures in Management's Discussion

& Analysis included in Nutrien’s 2018 Annual Report.

2. Refers to total cost of goods sold less depreciation and amortization.

3. Assuming full ramp up of Saskatchewan mines.

11

3

Source: Nutrien

May 15, 2019

~5 Mmt of incremental production capability in Saskatchewan that we can bring on with

limited capital as global demand grows

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Nitrogen: Global Supply & Demand Supportive

Global Nitrogen S&DMillion Tonnes Nitrogen

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180 Demand* Operational Capability

Global Utilization Rate1

Percent

May 15, 2019

12

1. Based on estimated operational capability.

* Demand growth based on 20 year CAGR (2002 to 2022) of 2 percent.

Source: CRU, Nutrien

Relatively stable near-term capacity utilization followed by potential for rapid tightening

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13

Nitrogen Sales TonnesMillion Tonnes

2017 2018

10.6

10.2

Nitrogen: World-scale Player; Regionally-Advantaged Portfolio

Source: CRU, Fertecon, Argus, Nutrien

May 15, 20191. 2019F represents mid-point of annual guidance previously disclosed in the Q4 2018 results on February 6, 2019.

* Western Canadian cash cost is shown as FOB.

10.8

2019F1

Regional cost & price advantages provide opportunity for high return brownfield projects

Urea Cash Cost & Price ComparisonUS$/Tonne

Evaluating high return

brownfield projects

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

Other Cost Gas Cost

2018 PNW Urea Price

Q1 2019 NOLA Urea Price

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Focus on accretive growth initiatives and returning cash to shareholders

Integrated model provides unique operational and financial advantages

Strong free cash flow and balance sheet provides opportunity to deliver on

capital priorities

Nutrien Provides Unique Investment Opportunity 14

May 15, 2019

Source: Nutrien

Merger completed successfully with strong execution on all priority areas

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Appendix

May 15, 2019

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Achieved synergies in 15-months and 24 percent above initial target

Successful Conclusion of Synergy Program, Expect to Capture Additional Efficiencies Going Forward

$141

$621

$195

$90

$195

$500

Distribution/Optimization

ProductionOptimization

Procurement SG&Aand Other

March 2019Annual Run-rate

Achieved

2019 TotalTarget EOY

(Original)

1

++

Annual Run-Rate SynergiesUS$ Millions

16

May 15, 20191 Other includes synergies related to administrative functions which may not appear in Selling or General & Administrative (SG&A) in the financial statements.

+24%

Source: Nutrien

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Nutrien Retail Provides Full Solutions Offering to the Grower

17

Billions invested to ensure on time delivery & highest level of

service, advice & technology solutions

Bulk Fertilizer Distribution

• >6.2Mmt of storage capacity globally

• Custom blending at many locations

• Unmatched product availability and timeliness

• >2,100 storage and distribution sites across

North America

Seed Solutions

• On-site seed treatment and bulk handling

• Access to a wide selection of brands &

genetics without bias

Application Services

• We apply fertilizer & crop protection products on ~60% of our US customer acreage

• 10th largest rolling stock in the U.S.

Crop Protection Products

• Bulk product handling and blending – can be delivered within hours

• >10,000 products to protect >100 crops• >80% of sales are branded products• >15% of sales are high-margin proprietary

products

Complete Advice & Services

• ~3,300 agronomists and crop advisers• Extensive collective expertise & training• Financial Services and lending

Innovation and Technology

• Launched integrated digital platform in 2018• Access to leading edge new technology• Backward integration with emerging

technology companies

May 15, 2019

Source: Nutrien

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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Proprietary Seed

Proprietary Nutritional Products

Proprietary Crop Protection Products

Retail: A Leading Agricultural Solutions Provider

Gross Margin (2018)US$ Billions

Crop Nutrients 31%

Crop Protection 38%

Seed 11%

Services/Other 17%

$3.0B

Crop inputs & services for over

100 different crops

Corn, 24%

Wheat, 16%

Soybean, 15%

Canola, 8%

Cotton, 7%

Fruits and Vegetables,

17%

All Other, 13%

Providing everything growers need to

maximize yields. ~ 3,300 crop advisors

Broad Crop Diversity Complete Ag Solutions Offering

Merchandise 3%

Proprietary Products

Consistent growth platform of higher

margin products valued by growers

Gross Margin1

US$ MillionsRevenue by Crop (2018)Percent

18

May 15, 2019

Source: Nutrien

1. 2012-2016 data is based upon legacy Agrium financials. 2017 comparative figures are the historical combined results of legacy Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc.

and Agrium Inc. and are considered to be non-IFRS Financial Measures. Excludes Dalgety animal health products.

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Nutrien is Strengthening its Retail Business: Strategic Transactions in Q1’19

19

1 Expected annual run-rate EBITDA two years after close

✓ 42nd largest US Ag retailer

✓ 11 locations

✓ 5,000 customers

✓ Environmentally sustainable soil and

plant health and tech

✓ US $55M EBITDA1

Actagro is aligned with Nutrien’s

strategy to invest in higher-

margin proprietary products that

provide strong value for growers.

Van Horn has built a strong ag

retail business, with a track

record of providing high value

products and service for growers

in Illinois.

✓ 3rd largest Ag retailer in AUS

✓ Expect to close in Q3’19

The combined business will

further strengthen the service

and innovation that Landmark

delivers to Australian growers.

May 15, 2019

Nutrien allocated over $900M to highly accretive Retail acquisitions

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Retail Network Optimization – Tuck-ins, Targeted Builds & Closures

20

1. Does not include revenue from equity positions in joint ventures.

2. 2010 cumulative closures represents the period of 2006 to 2009

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total

# of Locations Acquired 33 59 22 32 26 76 44 53 345

Annual Sales1

(U.S. millions)$210 $477 $128 $192 $190 $500+ ~$300 ~$400 >$2,500

Annual EBITDA (U.S. millions) (Year 1)

$27 $49 $12 $32 $20 ~$35 ~$23 ~$30 >$230

0

200

400

600

800

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Cumulative Store Closures U.S. Canada Australia South America

2

Tuck-in Acquisitions

Cumulative Global Store Closures

& Consolidations

May 15, 2019

Source: Nutrien

38 Major ‘Hub’ Locations Across

the US

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Significant Room for Further US Retail Consolidation

Agrium, 17%

Helena, 7%

Significant market

share held by

independent

retailers in the U.S.

Our share in other

key regions is ~30%

Growmark, 5%

Wilbur-Ellis, 4%

Pinnacle, 4%

CHS, 3%

Simplot Retail, 2%

Independents, 26%

Co-ops, 30%

19%

Helena, 7%

Over 19% market share with only 10% of the facilities

21

May 15, 2019

Source: CropLife, Nutrien

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Retail: Multiple Avenues to Deliver Strong Earnings Growth

22

TUCK-IN/ROLL UP

Continue to acquire farm centers across North America and Australia

PROPRIETARY PRODUCT

Increase our proprietaryproduct offerings & sales

AG CREDIT FINANCE

Expand the credit & finance businessearnings, retain & attract new customers

BRAZILIAN AG-RETAIL

Build the retail business, leveraging ourproven strengths and experience

DIGITAL PLATFORM

Deliver a world-class integrated platformthat supports growers ease of business

Grow

Build

Expand

Increase

Deliver

Nutrien

Ag Solutions

Strategy

May15, 2019

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Crop Nutrient Production: Large and Diverse Asset Base

23

13.02

10.26

3.61

Potash Nitrogen Phosphate &Sulfate

Potash

NitrogenUS 62%

Canada23%

Offshore15%

North America

36%

Offshore64%

, 0 , 0

Phosphate

& Sulfate

US 47%

Canada35%

Offshore18%

Total Combined Sales Volumes1 (2018)Million Tonnes

Geographic Combined Sales Volumes1 (2018)Percent

1. Refers to manufactured product only.May 15, 2019

Nutrien is the largest crop nutrient producer in the world, with 29 potash, nitrogen

and phosphate facilities in North and South America.

Source: Nutrien

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Prices continued to be under

pressure into 2019 as raw

material prices and seasonal

demand declined, but liquid

fertilizers and purified acid

prices remain firm

Prices have been largely

stable and several major

suppliers are reported to be

fully committed well into 1H

2019 as demand continues to

be strong in key markets

Global Crop Nutrient Prices

2019

Drivers

Potash Nitrogen

Prices softened in early 2019

due to seasonally slow demand,

however strong US demand and

limited new capacity has

supported urea prices in-

season, particularly in-market

Phosphate

2017

24

2018

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Nov Jan MarNov May Sep May JulJulJan Mar May Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Jan MarJul

DAP - FOB Tampa ($/mt)Potash - CFR Brazil ($/mt)

Urea – New Orleans Barge FOB ($/mt)

2016

Source: Fertilizer Week, Nutrien

2019

May 15, 2019

US$ per tonne

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Million Tonnes KCl

Source: CRU, Fertecon, IFA, Nutrien

0

5

10

15

20

15 16 17 18E19F 15 16 17 18E19F 15 16 17 18E19F 15 16 17 18E19F 15 16 17 18E19F 15 16 17 18E19F

2019

Fo

recast

India

4.5 – 5.0Mmt

• Expect modest

demand growth in

line with positive

consumption trends

supported by normal

monsoon rainfall

forecast

9.5 – 10.0Mmt

• Weak palm oil prices

are a headwind but

potash remains

affordable for most

growers and for other

crops like rice and

fruits & vegetables

Other

10.2 – 10.7Mmt

• Steady demand

supported by strong

affordability and

significant removal

of nutrients following

consecutive large

harvests

13.3 – 13.8Mmt

• Supportive crop

economics and

acreage growth in

nutrient deficient

regions has

supported strong

potash demand

16.0 – 16.5Mmt

• Strong consumption

trends supported by

affordability and a

shift to more

potassium-intensive

crops like fruits and

vegetables

13.0 – 13.5Mmt

• Good affordability

and growing demand

for NPK fertilizers,

including in Africa,

are expected to

boost potash

demand

Other Asia Latin America ChinaNorth America

25

Record global deliveries forecast at 67-69 million tonnes in 2019 supported by steady

consumption growth and relatively low inventories in key markets

Global Potash Deliveries by Region

May 15, 2019

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Global Potash Producer Sales

North American and FSU producers are anticipated to supply

the majority of demand increase in 2019

Source: CRU, Fertecon, Company Reports, Nutrien

Million Tonnes KCl

26

May 15, 2019

65

66

67

68

69

2018

Producer

Sales

North

America

Middle EastFSU 2019F

Producer

Sales

Asia South

America

Europe

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19F

Combined Sales Volumes Gross Margin % of Net Sales

Nutrien potash margins supported by lower delivered cost position

and favorable market characteristics

Potash: Historically Strong Margins and Volume Growth Throughout the Nutrient Cycle

Sales Volume1 Gross Margin2

Million Tonnes KCl Percent

1 Based on combined historical sales for Agrium and PotashCorp for 1998 to 2017.

2 Historical potash gross margin as a percentage of net sales based on legacy PotashCorp financial information.

3. Based on potash sales volume guidance provided on February 6, 2019

27

May 15, 2019

Source: Nutrien

3

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Chinese Urea Export Supplies Expected to be Tight

Chinese Urea ExportsMillion Tonnes

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

20

14

20

18

E

20

13

20

16

20

15

20

17

20

19

F

China’s

Urea

Capacity

Closures(Million Tonnes)

Chinese

Port Urea

Inventories(As at April:

Million Tonnes)

Chinese exports increased seasonally in late 2018 and early 2019, which tightened inventories

1.16

0.48

0.28

20172016 2018

1.27

2019

28

0

1

2

3

4

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

18

20

17

20

19

F

20

20

F

20

21

F

Source: CRU, Fertecon, Profercy Nutrien

May 15, 2019

Chinese urea

exports were up

significantly year-

over-year in Q1

2019, but supplies

tightened

significantly –

expect exports to

be flat to lower

than 2018 levels

in 2H 2019

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Source: Fertecon, US EIA, Canadian Gas Price Reporter, CRU, Argus, Nutrien

29

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

$9

$10

Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19

Henry Hub

AECO

European Hub

Natural Gas PricesUS$/MMBtu

North American Nitrogen Producers are Well Positioned

May 15, 2019

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

Other Cost Gas Cost

2018 PNW Urea Price

Q1 2019 NOLA Urea Price

1 Western Canadian cash cost is shown as FOB.

Urea Cash Cost & Price ComparisonUS$/Tonne

Lower feedstock prices and proximity to markets benefit North American nitrogen producers

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Expect Improvement in Global Phosphate Supply & Demand Over the Medium Term

1. Based on estimated operational capability.

* Demand growth based on 20 year CAGR (2002 to 2022) of 2 percent

Global Phosphate Operational Capability & DemandMillion Tonnes P2O5

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

Global Utilization Rate1

Percent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60Demand* Operational Capability

Low operating rates in China projected to balance the market in the short-term;

demand growth projected to exceed capacity additions from 2020-forward

May 15, 2019

30

Source: CRU, Nutrien

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For further information, visit:

www.nutrien.com

twitter.com/nutrienltd

facebook.com/nutrienltd

linkedin.com/company/nutrien

youtube.com/nutrien

Thank You!