Cover Headline on Two Lines Lorem Ipsum Dorem Lorem Nu · 2018-07-19 · including timing thereof....

Market Update

July 2018

Forward Looking Statements

Certain statements and other information included in this presentation constitute "forward-looking information" or "forward-looking statements" (collectively, "forward-

looking statements") under applicable securities laws (such statements are often accompanied by words such as "anticipate", “forecast”, "expect", "believe", "may", "will",

"should", "estimate", "intend" or other similar words). All statements in this presentation, other than those relating to historical information or current conditions, are

forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to: our market outlook for 2018, including potash, nitrogen and phosphate outlook and including anticipated pricing of

and supply and demand for our products and services, expected market and industry conditions with respect to crop nutrient application rates, planted acres, crop mix,

prices and the impact of currency fluctuations and import and export volumes; and the expected synergies associated with the merger of Agrium and PotashCorp,

including timing thereof. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control, which

could cause actual results to differ materially from such forward-looking statements. As such, undue reliance should not be placed on these forward-looking statements.

All of the forward-looking statements are qualified by the assumptions that are stated or inherent in such forward-looking statements, including the assumptions referred to

below and elsewhere in this document. Although Nutrien believes that these assumptions are reasonable, this list is not exhaustive of the factors that may affect any of

the forward-looking statements and the reader should not place an undue reliance on these assumptions and such forward-looking statements. The additional key

assumptions that have been made include, among other things, assumptions with respect to Nutrien's ability to successfully integrate and realize the anticipated benefits

of its already completed (including the merger of Agrium and PotashCorp) and future acquisitions, and that we will be able to implement our standards, controls,

procedures and policies at any acquired businesses to realize the expected synergies; that future business, regulatory and industry conditions will be within the

parameters expected by Nutrien, including with respect to prices, margins, demand, supply, product availability, supplier agreements, availability and cost of labor and

interest, exchange and effective tax rates; the completion of our expansion projects on schedule, as planned and on budget; assumptions with respect to global economic

conditions and the accuracy of our market outlook expectations for 2018 and in the future; the adequacy of our cash generated from operations and our ability to access

our credit facilities or capital markets for additional sources of financing; our ability to identify suitable candidates for acquisitions and divestitures and negotiate acceptable

terms; our ability to maintain investment grade rating and achieve our performance targets; assumptions in respect of our ability to sell equity positions, including the

ability to find suitable buyers at expected prices and successfully complete such transactions in a timely manner; the receipt, on time, of all necessary permits, utilities and

project approvals with respect to our expansion projects and that we will have the resources necessary to meet the projects’ approach.

Events or circumstances that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to: general global

economic, market and business conditions; the failure to successfully integrate and realize the expected synergies associated with the merger of Agrium and PotashCorp,

including within the expected timeframe; weather conditions, including impacts from regional flooding and/or drought conditions; crop planted acreage, yield and prices;

the supply and demand and price levels for our products; governmental and regulatory requirements and actions by governmental authorities, including changes in

government policy, government ownership requirements, changes in environmental, tax and other laws or regulations and the interpretation thereof; political risks,

including civil unrest, actions by armed groups or conflict and malicious acts including terrorism; the occurrence of a major environmental or safety incident; innovation

and security risks related to our systems; the inability to find suitable buyers for our equity positions and counterparty and transaction risk associated therewith; regional

natural gas supply restrictions; counterparty and sovereign risk; delays in completion of turnarounds at our major facilities; gas supply interruptions at our Egyptian and

Argentinian facilities; any significant impairment of the carrying value of certain assets; risks related to reputational loss; certain complications that may arise in our mining

processes; the ability to attract, engage and retain skilled employees and strikes or other forms of work stoppages; and other risk factors detailed from time to time in

Agrium, PotashCorp and Nutrien reports filed with the Canadian securities regulators and the Securities and Exchange Commission in the United States, including those

relating to Nutrien’s business disclosed in our business acquisition report dated February 20, 2018, related to the merger of Agrium and PotashCorp.

Nutrien disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements in this document as a result of new information or future events, except as

may be required under applicable U.S. federal securities laws or applicable Canadian securities legislation.

2

July 17, 2018

Nutrien Has a Unique Global Footprint

LEGEND:

RETAIL

POTASH

NITROGEN

PHOSPHATE

ESN®

GRANULATION

LOVELAND PRODUCTS AND AFFILIATED FACILITIES

AGRICHEM

INVESTMENTS AND JV’S

OFFICES

South AmericaNorth American Integrated Footprint

Australia

>26MmtCombined sales tonnes of potash,

nitrogen, phosphate & sulfate1

1,700+North American

distribution touch points

~1,600Retail locations

worldwide

29Production facilities in

North America and Trinidad

July 17, 2018NOTE: European distribution and our ownership stakes in Sinofert and the MOPCO nitrogen facility are not included on these maps.

1 2017 proforma sales tonnes (excluding Conda phosphate and North Bend nitric acid facilities). Refers to manufactured product.

3

Selected Crop Prices(As at July 10, 2018)

Agriculture Fundamentals: Supportive into 2018

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence

$8.55$9.73

$8.72

Soybean (US$/bu)

2018 Futures3-Year Average Current

$3.69$3.48 $3.59

Corn (US$/bu)

$0.11

$0.16

Sugar (US$/lbs)

$0.11

Palm Oil (MYR/mt)

2,5592,2822,268

Regional Highlights

• Palm oil prices remain

at supportive levels

• Plantations

implemented yield

recovery programs

following drought in 2016

• Population and income

growth support demand

for a wide-range of crops

• Increased crop support

prices and normal

monsoon forecast should

support fertilizer demand

• Government

implemented higher

import duty on several

crops including oilseeds,

wheat and pulses

• Total US crop planted

acreage is up yr/yr in

2018 despite changes in

crop mixes

• Strong fertilizer

affordability supports

application rates

• Acreage expansion

expected to continue

although at slower pace

• Unfavorable weather

conditions affected crop

production in Argentina

• The recent dispute on

road freight in Brazil has

slowed the pace of grain

and fertilizer movement

• Farm consolidation

supporting fertilization

practices; continued shift

to high-value, nutrient-

intensive crops

• Government reduced

subsidized corn prices,

but proposed new ethanol

(E10) target by 2020

India Other AsiaNorth

America

Latin

AmericaChina

Dec’1

8

Oct’1

8

Nov’1

8

No

v’1

8

July 17, 2018

4

Robust Global Grain and Oilseed Demand Growth

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

Annual Growth 5-Yr. CAGR

Global Grain & Oilseed Demand GrowthPercentage

Five-year grain & oilseed demand growth CAGR of 2.7%, which is the highest since the

early 1980s

Source: USDA, FAO, Nutrien July 17, 2018

* 2017F represents the 2017/18 crop year

5

US Major Crop Acreage

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F

Corn 95.3 90.6 88.4 94.0 90.2 89.1

Soybeans 76.5 83.7 83.2 83.4 90.1 89.6

Wheat 56.2 56.8 54.6 50.2 46.0 47.8

Cotton 10.3 11.0 8.6 10.1 12.6 13.5

Sorghum 8.1 7.2 8.7 6.7 5.6 6.0

Rice 2.5 2.9 2.6 3.2 2.5 2.8

Total US Major 249 252 246 248 247 249

US Major Crop AcreageMillion Acres

Latest USDA report suggested higher US crop planted acreage in 2018, which should

support a relatively strong crop input demand outlook

July 17, 2018Source: USDA, FAO, Nutrien


6

Canadian Major Crop Acreage

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F

Canola 20.1 20.6 20.5 20.2 22.8 22.6

Wheat 24.8 23.0 23.1 21.8 21.2 23.4

Barley 6.6 5.5 6.2 6.0 5.4 6.2

Peas 3.3 4.0 3.7 4.2 4.0 3.6

Lentils 2.7 3.1 4.0 5.9 4.4 3.8

Soybeans 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.9 3.1 2.5

Western Canada Major Crop AcreageMillion Acres

July 17, 2018

Eastern Canada Major Crop AcreageMillion Acres

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F

Corn 3.3 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.1

Soybeans 3.4 4.0 3.9 3.7 4.1 3.8

Barley 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.4

Source: USDA, FAO, Nutrien


Increased cereal acreage in place of pulses supported 2018 nutrient demand in W. Canada

7

US Grower Margins Have Weakened

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450Corn Soybeans Wheat Cotton

US Cash Grower Margins1

US$/Acre

Prospective 2018 grower margins have declined since late-May, driven by trade war fears

and favorable crop conditions

Source: USDA, Green Markets, CME Group, Nutrien1 2017/18 margins are based on marketing year average crop prices and estimated average fertilizer costs; 2018/19 margins are based on new crop 2018 futures prices

less estimated basis and estimated spot retail fertilizer prices

July 17, 2018

8

Mixed Grower Margins in W. Canada

Canola HRS Wheat Peas Lentils

W. Canadian Cash Grower Margins1

US$/Acre

Improvement in growing conditions have pressured some prices; pulse crop margins

remain low

Source: USDA, Green Markets, CME Group, Nutrien1 2017/18 margins are based on marketing year average crop prices and estimated average fertilizer costs; 2018/19 margins are based on new crop 2018 futures prices

less estimated basis and estimated spot retail fertilizer prices

July 17, 2018

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

9

Chinese Soybean ImportsMillion Tonnes

Growing Chinese Soybean and Corn Demand

Source: USDA, Nutrien

Chinese Corn Production less Consumption*Million Tonnes

July 17, 2018

Chinese soybean imports have grown at 8.5% CAGR; the gap between corn

production and domestic consumption is expected to increase

1319 22 24 24 22

28 30 3036 36

2422

2828

36 38

43

4953

57 61

Other U.S.

(100)

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

Potential added

demand from

Chinese ethanol

mandate

* Forecasts based on flat corn acreage in China with trend yields while consumption excluding ethanol is expected to continue to grow at historical rates.

10

Selected Potash Prices

Global Potash Prices

Near-term

Themes

International US Midwest

Normal potash demand

supported by affordable

prices and the need to

replace nutrients removed

by last year’s harvest.

US NOLA

Offshore imports remain at

elevated levels but import

pace has slowed in 2018

from a year ago.

150

200

250

300

350

MarJanNovSepJulMayMarJanNovSepJulMayMarJan May Jul

US NOLA FOB ($/mt)US Midwest FOB ($/mt)Brazil CFR ($/mt)

2016 2017 2018

Stocks are flat-to-down in

most major international

markets. Consumption

has remained strong in

key markets.

July 17, 2018Source: Fertilizer Week, Nutrien

11

Potash Fertilizer Consumption Growth2013-2018F CAGR*

Potash Consumption Trend Expected to Continue

Source: CRU, Fertecon, Industry Publications, Nutrien

Potash Shipment Growth2013-2018F Million Tonnes KCl

* Based on CRU potash fertilizer consumption forecast as at August 2017 ** Based on global shipment forecast for 2018 as at May, 2018

8.6%

5.6%5.1%

3.6%

0.7%

4.0%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

China India OtherAsia

LatinAmerica

NorthAmerica

World

4.5

1.6

2.4

2.2

1.1

China

53.3

2018F**

65.5

Latin

America

Other

Asia

North

America

0.4

Rest of

World

India2013

Affordable prices and agronomic need expected to drive strong potash consumption

growth, particularly in offshore markets

July 17, 2018

12

Global Potash Shipments by RegionMillion Tonnes KCl

Record Global Potash Demand Projected in 2018

0

5

10

15

20

15 16 17E 18F 15 16 17E 18F 15 16 17E 18F 15 16 17E 18F 15 16 17E 18F 15 16 17E 18F

2018

Hig

hlig

hts

India

4.5 – 5.0Mmt

• Expect modest

demand growth in

line with positive

consumption trends

despite reduced

subsidy rates for

2018/19 FY

10.0 – 10.5Mmt

• Demand supported

by record palm oil

production and

robust crop

economics for a wide

range of key crops

Other

9.5 – 10.0Mmt

• Steady demand

supported by strong

affordability and

significant removal

of nutrients following

consecutive large

harvests

12.0 – 12.5Mmt

• Improved crop

economics and

acreage growth in

nutrient deficient

regions has

supported strong

potash demand

15.5 – 16.0Mmt

• Strong consumption

trends supported by

affordability and a

shift to more

potassium-intensive

crops like fruits and

vegetables

12.5 – 13.0Mmt

• Good affordability

and growing demand

for NPK fertilizers,

including in Africa,

are expected to

boost potash

demand

Other Asia Latin America ChinaNorth America

Previous Record:

6.3mmt (2010)

Previous Record:

10.0mmt (2017)

Previous Record:

11.1mmt (1997)

Previous Record:

12.2mmt (2017)

Previous Record:

15.8mmt (2015)

Previous Record:

13.7mmt (1997)

July 17, 2018Source: CRU, Fertecon, IFA, Nutrien

13

North America Potash Market Profile

N:K Ratio 2.5 : 1 2.9 : 1 2.5 : 1

Potash Usage Profile (2014/15)Percentage

KCl Supply Profile (2017)Percentage

10.4Mmt10.2Mmt9.6Mmt

2017E20102000

25%

Cotton 3%

Wheat5%

Soybean

24%

Corn43%

Other

44%

17%

Other

North

American39%Nutrien

Imports

July 17, 2018

Potash Demand Million Tonnes KCl

Source: CRU, Fertecon, IFA, Nutrien

Expect moderate demand growth going forward as high percentage of soils

continue to test below critical potassium levels

14

History of World Potash Mine Closures

Average of more than 7 million tonnes of capacity closed each decade

Potash Capacity Closures(Million Tonnes)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1980s 1990s 2000s 2010-2020F

Water Inflow Ore Depletion/Other

July 17, 2018Source: CRU, Fertecon, IFA, Nutrien

15

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

Relatively Tight Potash Supply & Demand

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Demand Growth @ 3.0%/yr

Demand Growth @ 2.8%/yr

Operational Capability

Global Potash S&DMillion Tonnes KCl

Global Utilization Rate1

Percent

Expect demand growth and capacity closures to offset capacity additions;

operating rates expected to be at or above historical average

Demand Growth @ 2.8%/yr*


Source: CRU, Fertecon, IFA, Nutrien1 Based on estimated operational capability * Demand growth based on 20 year CAGR 2002 to 2022

July 17, 2018

16

Selected Urea Prices

Global Urea Prices

Near-term

Themes

China

Domestic availability is

tight after significant

shutdowns and higher

feedstock prices.

India

Indian inventories began

2018 at historically low

levels, supporting robust

imports in 1H 2018.

US NOLA

Reduced supply

availability as a result of

slow import pace more

than offsetting increased

domestic production.

150

200

250

300

350

NovSep JulJan Mar May Jul Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May

2016 2017 2018

US NOLA FOB ($/mt) US Midwest FOB ($/mt)China FOB ($/mt)


17

Ammonia: Key Regional Trade Balances

Source: Fertecon, CRU, Nutrien

Key Ammonia Importing Regions Million Tonnes

Key Ammonia Exporting RegionsMillion Tonnes

5.0

0.3

1.00.9

2.1

4.2

3.7

0.7

1.31.4

2.3

4.3

1

0

4

3

2

6

5

+56%

W. E

uro

pe

-26%

+1%

India

US

Moro

cco

S. K

ore

a

Chin

a

+142%

+8%

+31%

0.8

0.5

1.1

3.6

1.21.3

0.2

0.7

1.3

4.5

0.6

0.1

1.0

3.2

1.31.5

0.70.9

1.9

4.5

5

1

2

0

6

4

3

S. A

rabia

Canada

Ukra

ine

+2%

+49%

Qata

r

+375%+30%

+6%+10%

-7%

-12%

-27%

-72%

Trinid

ad

US

Alg

eria

SE

. A

sia

Iran

Russia

2017EPrev. 3 year Avg

July 17, 2018

New US capacity has reduced net import demand and global trade flows; however marginal

capacity closures and growth in non-US imports have offset US reductions

Increase due to Ma’aden

ammonia, much of which

will feed future

DAP/MAP production

Ammonia imports in China

nearly doubled in the last

3 years and are expected

to further increase in 2018

18

Tight Chinese Urea Supplies Reduce Exports

Chinese Urea ExportsMillion Tonnes

4.7

8.9

13.813.6

8.3

2013

-36%

2.0-3.0

20172016

-36%

-47%

2018F20152014

$175$151

$127$106

$149

$192

2013 2018

Current

20172014 2015 2016

Chinese

Energy

Costs(US$/MT)

China Anthracite Coal

(55% of Urea Production)

Chinese

Port Urea

Inventories(mid-June)

Chinese urea operating rates have increased, but port inventories remain low

Source: CRU, Fertecon, Profercy, Nutrien

0.73 0.70

0.17

20182016 2017

July 17, 2018

19

US Ammonia ProductionMillion Tonnes

14.6

12.511.711.4

+45%

2018F

15.5-16.5

2017201620152014

US Urea ProductionMillion Tonnes

US UAN ProductionMillion Tonnes

12.1

11.2

10.010.3

+31%

2018F

12.5-13.5

2017201620152014

4.9

3.4

2.62.4

2014

+171%

2018F

5.5-6.5

201720162015

Source: TFI, CRU, Fertecon, Nutrien

Increased US Domestic Nitrogen Production

The US has added significant nitrogen capacity in recent years, reducing its net import

requirement and leading to increased export volumes when netbacks are favorable

July 17, 2018

20

Relatively Tight North American Urea Supplies

13.4 13.212.4

2015/16 2016/17 2017/18E

North American Urea Supply1

Million Tonnes Urea (Jul-Jun)

Tight North American urea supplies entering the summer fill season;

While UAN supplies are relatively flat to the past 2 years

Source: TFI, US Department of Commerce, Piers, Nutrien

1. Supply is equal to cumulative fertilizer year to date North American production plus offshore imports less offshore exportsJuly 17, 2018

14.1 14.2 14.1

2015/16 2016/17 2017/18E

North American UAN Supply1

Million Tonnes Urea (Jul-Jun)

21

Tightening Global Nitrogen Supply & Demand

Global Nitrogen S&DMillion Tonnes Nitrogen

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180 Demand Operational Capability

Forecast improvement in nitrogen capacity utilization expected over the medium-term


Percent

Source: CRU, Nutrien1 Based on estimated operational capability. Adjusted for idled capacity in China and Eastern Europe. * Demand growth based on 20 year CAGR 2002 to 2022


July 17, 2018

22

Selected Phosphate Prices

Global Phosphate Prices

Near-term

Themes

China

Significant environmental

and production economics

pressure.

US Midwest Brazil

Strong Latin American

demand expected to

continue into 2018.

250

300

350

400

450

MarJanNovSepJulMayMarJanNovSep MayJulMayMarJan Jul

2016 2017 2018

China DAP FOB ($/mt)Tampa DAP FOB ($/mt) Brazil MAP CFR ($/mt)


US slow to recover

relative to other markets.

Capacity curtailments

helping to support prices.

23

Phosphate Raw Material Costs

Selected Raw Material PricesUS$/Tonne

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

JanNov MayNov Jan Mar May Jul SepJan Mar May Jul Sep JulMar

Tampa Ammonia

Tampa Liquid Sulfur FOB

2016

Production costs continue to be impacted by higher year-over-year sulfur prices

2018

Source: Fertilizer Week, Nutrien

2017

July 17, 2018

24

Expect Lower China DAP/MAP Exports

China P2O5 Capacity Operating RateMillion Tonnes Percent

Chinese DAP/MAP ExportsMillion Tonnes

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

60

65

70

75

80

85

2018F201720162015201420132012

CapacityOperating Rate

8.98.8

10.8

7.2

4.54.5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2018F

7.5-8.5

201720162015201420132012

Environmental pressures are expected to continue to impact Chinese production

and future export capabilities

July 17, 2018Source: CRU, Nutrien

25

Select Region Phosphate Trade

US DAP/MAP TradeMillion Tonnes

-3.2

-4.2-4.4-4.7

-5.2

-6.0-6.6-6.4

-3.8

2.41.8

1.41.20.80.6

0.90.5

0.1

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

2016 2018F201420122010

Imports Exports

India DAP Phosphate ImportsMillion Tonnes

5.0

4.04.3

5.8

3.63.5

6.26.4

7.6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2018F2012 20142010 2016


* 2017 inventory estimate is from December 2017

Inventory*Imports

US and Chinese production reductions and tight inventories in India supportive of

stronger DAP imports in 2018

July 17, 2018

26

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F

China Morocco Middle East Latin America Others Closures Net Additions

Global Phosphoric Acid Supply Additions (pro-rated for start-up)Million Tonnes

Limited Global Phosphate Projects Beyond 2018

Note: Does not include all smaller debottleneck projects and capacity is pro-rated for startup timing in the year.


Capacity additions slow post 2018, which combined with closures and demand

growth should lead to a rapid tightening of the S&D balance

July 17, 2018

27

Expect Improvement in Global Phosphate Market

Source: CRU, Nutrien

1 Based on estimated operational capability

Global Phosphate Operational Capability & DemandMillion Tonnes P2O5

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%


Percent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60Demand Operational Capability

Low operating rates in China projected to balance the market in the short-term; demand

growth projected to exceed capacity additions from 2020-forward

July 17, 2018

28

Thank you!

MARKET OUTLOOK PRESENTATION July 17, 2018

For further information please visit Nutrien’s website at: www.nutrien.com

Follow Nutrien on:

twitter.com/nutrienltd

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linkedin.com/company/nutrien

Cover Headline on Two Lines Lorem Ipsum Dorem Lorem Nu · 2018-07-19 · including timing thereof....

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