Cost-Effective Interventions Cost-Effective Interventions for Juvenile Offendersfor Juvenile Offenders

Dr. Peter W. GreenwoodDr. Peter W. GreenwoodAcademy of Experimental CriminologyAcademy of Experimental Criminology

Association for the Advancement of Evidence-Based Association for the Advancement of Evidence-Based PracticePractice

University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at IrvineVisionQuestVisionQuest

Greenwood & AssociatesGreenwood & Associates

The Good NewsThe Good News

• There are proven program strategies and models that consistently improve outcomes, when implemented correctly

• They cover full range of child development

• Several pay for themselves, many times over, in reduced corrections costs

What WorksWhat Works

• Functional Family Therapy (FFT)• Multi-systemic Therapy (MST)• Treatment Foster Care (TFC)• Nurse-Family Partnerships (NFP)• Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT)• Aggression Replacement Training (ART)• Program Accountability (QA)

Costs & Taxpayer Benefits by Program

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000

NFP

PP

SSDP

BBBS

QOP

MTFC

MST

FFT

Costs and Savings

Taxpayer benefits/savings

Cost per youth

2005 Legislative Direction (ESSB 6094): “Study options to stabilize future prison populations.”

“Study the net short-run and long-run fiscal savings to state and local governments of implementing…

evidence-based treatment human service and corrections programs and policies, including prevention and intervention programs,

sentencing alternatives, and the use of risk factors in sentencing.”

“Project total fiscal impacts under alternative implementation scenarios.”

WSIPP published report in October, 2006 WSIPP published report in October, 2006 2 of 7

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

*Incarceration Rate

Adult Prison Incarceration Rates:Adult Prison Incarceration Rates:

1930 to 2005

*The incarceration rate is defined as the number of inmates in state prisons per 1,000 18- to 49-year-olds in Washington or the United States.

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Forecast for WA

UnitedStates

Washington

In 2005, crime rates were 26% lower than they were in 1980.

In 1980, taxpayers spent $589 per household on the Criminal Justice System. Today they spend $1,125: a 91% increase.

All Data are for Washington State: 1980 to 2005All Data are for Washington State: 1980 to 2005

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-40%

-20%

0%

+20%

+40%

+60%

+80%

+100%Percent Change Since 1980

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Taxpayer Costs Are Up(Inflation-Adjusted Criminal Justice

Dollars Per Household)

$

$

$$$$ $

$

$$$

$$ $

$ $$

$ $ $

$ $ $ $

Crime Rates and Taxpayer CostsCrime Rates and Taxpayer Costs

2010 2015

?

?

?

?

Crime Rates Are Down (Violent and Property Crimes

Reported to Police, Per 1,000 People)

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Results for Three Example Portfolios of Evidence-Based OptionsResults for Three Example Portfolios of Evidence-Based Options

Long-run benefits minus costs

$1.1 billion $1.7 billion $2.4 billion

Benefit-to-cost ratio $2.45 $2.55 $2.60Return on investment 24% 27% 28%

Crime Rate in 2020 (2005 rate = 52) 48 48 49

Current Level AggressiveModerateTaxpayer Summary Statistics

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

28,000

30,000

CFC prison forecast and WSIPP extensionForecast with Current Level Portfolio

Forecast with Moderate Implementation PortfolioForecast with Aggressive Implementation Portfolio

Existing Prison Supply& Rented Jail Beds

Prison Supply & Demand in Washington: 2008 to 2030

02008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 20300

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

28,000

30,000

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Prison Beds

Current Prison Bed ForecastCurrent Level Portfolio“Moderate” Expansion Portfolio“Aggressive” Expansion Portfolio

Existing Prison Supply& Rented Jail Beds

2 prison shortfall

3

Annual cost of portfolio $41 million $63 million $85 million

Expected ChangeIn Crime

(# of EB Studies)

Benefits minus Costs (per-person,

life cycle)

Adult Drug Courts -8.0% (57) $4,767

Education Prms., Prison -7.0% (17) $10,669

Evidence-Based Programs, Crime OutcomesEvidence-Based Programs, Crime Outcomes

Cog-Behavioral Treatment -6.3% (25) $10,299

ISP: surveillance -0.0% (23) -$3,747 ISP: treatment -17.1% (11) $11,563

Family Int. Transitions -13.0% (1) $40,545 Aggression Repl. Trng. -7.3% (4) $14,660 Restorative Justice (low risk) -8.7% (21) $7,067

Adult OffendersAdult Offenders

Juvenile OffendersJuvenile Offenders

Pre-School* (low income) -14.2% (8) $12,196 Nurse Family Partnership* -36.3% (2) $27,105

PreventionPrevention

SelectedSelected Results Results

Functional Family Thpy. -15.9% (7) $31,821

Drug Tx in Prison (TC or out-patient) -5.7% (20) $7,835

What does this mean for What does this mean for ConnecticutConnecticut

• State has been leader in implementing E-B programs

• Evidence suggests these investments have high pay-off

• But these programs are not available to youth at highest risk

For further informationFor further information

• Greenwood, P.W., Changing Lives: Delinquency Prevention as Crime Control Policy,, University of Chicago Press (2006)

• Greenwood, P. W. Promising Solutions in Juvenile Justice in Dishion, T. and K. Dodge (eds.) Deviant Peer Influences in Programs for Youth, Guilford Press (2006)

• www.greenwoodassociates.org• peter.greenwood@sbcglobal.net• www.wsipp.org