Sexual Offenders: What the Research Reveals Franca Cortoni, Ph.D., C.Psych. School of Criminology...

Sexual Offenders: What the Sexual Offenders: What the Research RevealsResearch Reveals

Franca Cortoni, Ph.D., C.Psych.Franca Cortoni, Ph.D., C.Psych.School of Criminology School of Criminology University of MontrealUniversity of Montreal

Association Paroling Authorities International Association Paroling Authorities International Audio ConferenceAudio Conference

May 28, 2008May 28, 2008

Sexual OffendersSexual Offenders

Understanding RecidivismUnderstanding Recidivism

Risk AssessmentRisk Assessment

TreatmentTreatment

Circles of Support & Circles of Support & AccountabilityAccountability

Female Sexual OffendersFemale Sexual Offenders

ConclusionsConclusions

Understanding RecidivismUnderstanding Recidivism

(aka - Not all male sexual (aka - Not all male sexual offenders are the same!!!)offenders are the same!!!)

Average International Average International Recidivism Rates – Male S.O.Recidivism Rates – Male S.O.

13.5% sexual (13.5% sexual (NN = 23,494) = 23,494)

25.5% any violent (25.5% any violent (NN = 13,427) = 13,427)

35.5% any recidivism (35.5% any recidivism (NN = 18,167) = 18,167)

Hanson & Morton (2003)Hanson & Morton (2003)

Average follow-up of Average follow-up of 5 years years

Sexual Recidivism by Type of VictimsSexual Recidivism by Type of Victims

Follow-up = Follow-up = 1515 yearsyears

Adult Victims Adult Victims ((N=1,038)

24%24%

Intrafamilial Intrafamilial (N = 1,099)

vs. vs.

Extrafamilial Extrafamilial (N = 2,798)

13%13%

25%25%

Girl Victims Girl Victims (N = 1,572)

vs. vs.

Boy Victims Boy Victims (N = 706)

16%16%

35%35%Harris & Hanson (2004)Harris & Hanson (2004)

Evaluation of Risk of Sexual Evaluation of Risk of Sexual RecidivismRecidivism

““The prototypical sexual The prototypical sexual recidivistrecidivist is not upset or lonely; is not upset or lonely; instead he leads an unstable, instead he leads an unstable,

antisocial lifestyle and ruminates antisocial lifestyle and ruminates on sexually deviant themes”on sexually deviant themes”

(p.1158; Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2005)(p.1158; Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2005)

Why Risk Assessment?Why Risk Assessment?

Evaluation informs on the level of risk Evaluation informs on the level of risk posed by the offender & informs on posed by the offender & informs on when the offender may be most at when the offender may be most at risk of reoffendingrisk of reoffending

Informs on treatment needsInforms on treatment needs

Provide strategies for supervision to Provide strategies for supervision to promote the effective management of promote the effective management of the offender’s risk.the offender’s risk.

Types of Risk of RecidivismTypes of Risk of Recidivism

General recidivism (i.e., non-violent General recidivism (i.e., non-violent and non-sexual)and non-sexual)

Violent recidivism (may or may not Violent recidivism (may or may not include sexual recidivism)include sexual recidivism)

Sexual recidivismSexual recidivism

Evaluation of Risk of Sexual Evaluation of Risk of Sexual RecidivismRecidivism

Evaluation of risk of sexual recidivism Evaluation of risk of sexual recidivism always take into consideration static always take into consideration static & dynamic risk factors& dynamic risk factors

Risk factors are individual Risk factors are individual characteristics that increase or characteristics that increase or decrease the probability of recidivismdecrease the probability of recidivism

Static Risk FactorsStatic Risk Factors

Historical factors that have been Historical factors that have been demonstrated to relate to demonstrated to relate to recidivism potential. recidivism potential.

These are non-changeable aspects These are non-changeable aspects of the offender.of the offender.

Dynamic Risk FactorsDynamic Risk Factors

Factors associated with recidivism Factors associated with recidivism but that are amenable to change. but that are amenable to change.

These are the issues that are These are the issues that are addressed in treatment.addressed in treatment.

Dynamic Risk Factors (cont.)Dynamic Risk Factors (cont.)

StableStable: Enduring changeable characteristics : Enduring changeable characteristics linked to the offending behavior. linked to the offending behavior.

AcuteAcute: Rapidly changing changeable : Rapidly changing changeable characteristics; may indicate that a characteristics; may indicate that a reoffensereoffense will occur within a short period of will occur within a short period of timetime

Some factors may be Some factors may be bothboth stable and stable and acuteacute

Established Static Risk Factors for Established Static Risk Factors for Sexual and ViolentSexual and Violent Recidivism Recidivism

among Sexual Offenders among Sexual Offenders

YoungYoung SingleSingle

No current romantic No current romantic relationshiprelationship

Total criminal history Total criminal history

Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 20042004


Established Risk Factors for Established Risk Factors for ViolentViolent Recidivism among Sexual OffendersRecidivism among Sexual Offenders

Antisocial orientationAntisocial orientation History of rule violationHistory of rule violation History of violent crimeHistory of violent crime Lifestyle instabilityLifestyle instability Substance abuse Substance abuse Cluster B Personality Disorders Cluster B Personality Disorders

(antisocial, narcissistic, borderline)(antisocial, narcissistic, borderline)



Factors Factors UnrelatedUnrelated to to ViolentViolent Recidivism Recidivism among Sexual Offendersamong Sexual Offenders

Psychosis, major mental illnessPsychosis, major mental illness

Internalizing psychological Internalizing psychological disordersdisorders

Depression; anxietyDepression; anxiety



Established Risk Factors for Established Risk Factors for SexualSexual Recidivism Recidivism

Sexual criminal historySexual criminal history Prior sexual offencesPrior sexual offences

Early onset of sexual crimesEarly onset of sexual crimes Diverse sexual crimesDiverse sexual crimes

Victim characteristicsVictim characteristics UnrelatedUnrelated StrangersStrangers MaleMale

Non-contact sexual offencesNon-contact sexual offences



continued…continued…

Sexual devianceSexual deviance

Any deviant sexual interestAny deviant sexual interest ChildrenChildren ParaphiliasParaphilias

Sexual preoccupationsSexual preoccupations

Attitudes tolerant of sexual assaultAttitudes tolerant of sexual assault




Lifestyle instability / general Lifestyle instability / general criminalitycriminality

History of rule violation (lack of History of rule violation (lack of compliance with supervision)compliance with supervision)

Antisocial attitudesAntisocial attitudes

Antisocial traitsAntisocial traits

Impulsivity, hostilityImpulsivity, hostility




Relationship IssuesRelationship Issues::

Problematic intimate Problematic intimate relationships (conflict with relationships (conflict with intimate partner)intimate partner)

Emotional identification with Emotional identification with childrenchildren



Factors Factors Not RelatedNot Related to Sexual to Sexual RecidivismRecidivism

Victim empathyVictim empathy

Denial/minimization of sexual offenceDenial/minimization of sexual offence

Lack of motivation for treatmentLack of motivation for treatment

Internalizing psychological problemsInternalizing psychological problems Anxiety; depression; low self-esteemAnxiety; depression; low self-esteem

Sexually abused as a childSexually abused as a child

Sexual intrusiveness (e.g., intercourse)Sexual intrusiveness (e.g., intercourse)



Risk Assessment Tools:Risk Assessment Tools:

Specific ExamplesSpecific Examples

The STATIC-99 – Static Factors The STATIC-99 – Static Factors

Young Age (- 25 y.)Young Age (- 25 y.) Never marriedNever married Non-sexual violence Non-sexual violence

in index offencein index offence Prior non-sexual Prior non-sexual

violent convictionsviolent convictions Prior sexual offencesPrior sexual offences

Prior sentencing Prior sentencing datesdates

Non-contact Non-contact sexual offencessexual offences

Stranger victimsStranger victims Unrelated victimsUnrelated victims Male victimsMale victims

Hanson & Thornton, Hanson & Thornton, 19991999

Hanson & Thornton, Hanson & Thornton, 19991999

The STABLE: Dynamic Factors The STABLE: Dynamic Factors

• Intimacy DeficitsIntimacy Deficits

• Significant Social InfluencesSignificant Social Influences

• Attitudes supportive of Sexual AssaultAttitudes supportive of Sexual Assault

• Sexual Self-regulationSexual Self-regulation

• General Self-regulationGeneral Self-regulation

• Lack of Cooperation with SupervisionLack of Cooperation with Supervision

Hanson & Harris (2000 & Hanson & Harris (2000 & ongoing)ongoing)

Hanson & Harris (2000 & Hanson & Harris (2000 & ongoing)ongoing)

The ACUTE: Dynamic FactorsThe ACUTE: Dynamic Factors

Substance AbuseSubstance Abuse Emotional CollapseEmotional Collapse Collapse of Social Supports Collapse of Social Supports Hostility*Hostility* Sexual Preoccupation*Sexual Preoccupation* Victim Access*Victim Access* Rejection of Supervision*Rejection of Supervision*

Hanson & Harris, 2000 & Hanson & Harris, 2000 & ongoingongoing

Hanson & Harris, 2000 & Hanson & Harris, 2000 & ongoingongoing

Are Acute Factors specifically useful in Are Acute Factors specifically useful in predicting recidivism?predicting recidivism?

Yes – Yes – allall acute factors related to acute factors related to recidivism, but most powerful:recidivism, but most powerful:

Sexual PreoccupationSexual Preoccupation

Victim AccessVictim Access

HostilityHostility

Rejection of SupervisionRejection of Supervision

Hanson, Harris, Scott, & Helmus, Hanson, Harris, Scott, & Helmus, 20072007

Hanson, Harris, Scott, & Helmus, Hanson, Harris, Scott, & Helmus, 20072007

TreatmentTreatment

TreatmentTreatment

Current standards:Current standards: • Treatment is based on behavioural strategies, Treatment is based on behavioural strategies,

including cognitive-behavioural, social including cognitive-behavioural, social learning, modelling, and skill building.learning, modelling, and skill building.

Goals of Treatment:Goals of Treatment:

1.1. To address in treatment the dynamic risk To address in treatment the dynamic risk factors leading to the sexually offending factors leading to the sexually offending behaviorbehavior

2.2. To understand the behavioral progression to To understand the behavioral progression to the offensethe offense

3.3. To develop a self-management planTo develop a self-management plan

Treatment TargetsTreatment Targets

• Cognitive issues : Schemas about themselves; Cognitive issues : Schemas about themselves; others; and the world (includes attitudes; beliefs; others; and the world (includes attitudes; beliefs; distortions of the offending behavior & victims)distortions of the offending behavior & victims)

• Sexual Self-Regulation (including arousal Sexual Self-Regulation (including arousal management)management)

• General Self-RegulationGeneral Self-Regulation

• Intimacy & RelationshipsIntimacy & Relationships

• Emotions ManagementEmotions Management

• Social & Interpersonal FunctioningSocial & Interpersonal Functioning

• Understanding of behavioural progression & self-Understanding of behavioural progression & self-management strategiesmanagement strategies

Behavioral ProgressionBehavioral Progression

A predictable series of events & A predictable series of events & situationssituations

Combined with cognitive & Combined with cognitive & emotional statesemotional states

That leads to sexual offendingThat leads to sexual offending

A Self Management Plan Should…A Self Management Plan Should…

……establish positive goals incompatible with offendingestablish positive goals incompatible with offending

……develop management & coping strategies for develop management & coping strategies for internal & external risk factorsinternal & external risk factors

……ensure cognitive & emotional components are ensure cognitive & emotional components are presentpresent

……ensure strategies to deal with deviant arousal are ensure strategies to deal with deviant arousal are included if necessaryincluded if necessary

……include a support networkinclude a support network

……be concrete but generalizable. be concrete but generalizable.

Treatment EffectivenessTreatment Effectiveness

33

Treatment EffectivenessTreatment Effectiveness

In the Canadian correctional system, In the Canadian correctional system, research shows that treated sexual offenders research shows that treated sexual offenders (of all risk levels) consistently demonstrate a (of all risk levels) consistently demonstrate a 50% reduction in reoffending50% reduction in reoffending

International research on the effectiveness of International research on the effectiveness of treatment for sexual offenders also shows treatment for sexual offenders also shows similar reductions when treatment is based similar reductions when treatment is based on current standards.on current standards.

International Findings - ATSA International Findings - ATSA Collaborative DatabaseCollaborative Database

Overall Effect of Treatment

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Sexual Any

Treated

Control

Reductions in both sexual recidivism (17% to 10%) and general recidivism (51% to 32%) found when current treatments are evaluated with credible designs

The Importance of Completing The Importance of Completing TreatmentTreatment

Recidivism & TreatmentRecidivism & Treatment Attrition Attrition

ATSA Collaborative ATSA Collaborative Database (Hanson et Database (Hanson et al., 2002):al., 2002):

18 studies found the same results: 18 studies found the same results:

offenders who start but fail to offenders who start but fail to complete treatment have consistently complete treatment have consistently higher rates of recidivism than those higher rates of recidivism than those who completed or refused treatment.who completed or refused treatment.

Managing the risk in the Managing the risk in the community:community:


(CoSAs)(CoSAs)


Core member Volunteers Professionals

CoSAs Mission CoSAs Mission StatementStatement

To substantially reduce the risk To substantially reduce the risk of future sexual victimization of of future sexual victimization of community members by community members by assisting and supporting assisting and supporting released men in their task of released men in their task of integrating with the community integrating with the community and leading responsible, and leading responsible, productive, and productive, and accountableaccountable lives.lives.

CoSAs (N=60) Control (N=60)

Sexual Recidivism 5.00% (3) 16.67% (10)

Expected sexual recidivism

28.33% (17) 26.45% (16)

Study 1:Study 1: Wilson, Pricheca, & Prinzo (2005)

Are CoSAs Effective?Are CoSAs Effective?

CoSAs (N=47) Control (N=47)

Sexual Recidivism 2.13% (n=1) 12.77% (n=6)

Study 2:Study 2: Wilson, Cortoni & Vermani (2007)

Follow-up= 4.5 years

Follow-up = 3 years


Tremendous advances in the knowledge of risk Tremendous advances in the knowledge of risk assessment for adult male sexual offenders. assessment for adult male sexual offenders.

In contrast, little is known about risk In contrast, little is known about risk assessment & treatment of female sexual assessment & treatment of female sexual offenders.offenders.

Not only are the risk factors unknown, but Not only are the risk factors unknown, but

there has been little research on the recidivism there has been little research on the recidivism base rates for female sexual offenders.base rates for female sexual offenders.

Proportion of Sexual Offenders who Proportion of Sexual Offenders who are Womenare Women

Two general sources of information from 5 countries:Two general sources of information from 5 countries:

1) Official police or Court reports of offender 1) Official police or Court reports of offender gendergender

2) Victimization surveys2) Victimization surveys

Overall, results showed that women appear to be Overall, results showed that women appear to be responsible for approximately 4% to 5% of all responsible for approximately 4% to 5% of all sexual offencessexual offences

These indicate a ratio of approximately 20 male to 1 These indicate a ratio of approximately 20 male to 1 female sexual offenders based on both official female sexual offenders based on both official reports and victimization surveysreports and victimization surveys

Cortoni & Hanson (2005)Cortoni & Hanson (2005)

Average International RecidivismAverage International Recidivism Rates of Female Sexual OffendersRates of Female Sexual Offenders

The The sexualsexual recidivism rate of 1.0% recidivism rate of 1.0% after 5 years (3/306)after 5 years (3/306)

The The violentviolent recidivism rate (including recidivism rate (including sexual) of 6.3% (12/191)sexual) of 6.3% (12/191)

The The generalgeneral recidivism rate (including recidivism rate (including sexual & violent) of 20.2% (68/337)sexual & violent) of 20.2% (68/337)

Cortoni & Hanson (2005)Cortoni & Hanson (2005)

Canadian Recidivism StudyCanadian Recidivism Study

61 women convicted of sexual 61 women convicted of sexual offensesoffenses

7.56 years follow-up (.08 - 22.14 y.)7.56 years follow-up (.08 - 22.14 y.)

32.8% re-offended (N=20)32.8% re-offended (N=20)

7 / 20 committed a violent offense7 / 20 committed a violent offense

2 / 7 committed a new sexual offense2 / 7 committed a new sexual offense

Williams & Nicholaichuk (2001)Williams & Nicholaichuk (2001)

Tentative Risk Factors of Female Tentative Risk Factors of Female Sexual Offenders **Sexual Offenders **

Prior sexual offencesPrior sexual offences Acted alone (Acted alone (no male accomplice no male accomplice )) Unrelated victimUnrelated victim

** Difficult to provide clear empirical ** Difficult to provide clear empirical evidenceevidence

** Must pay attention to general risk factors ** Must pay attention to general risk factors among female offenders in addition to among female offenders in addition to those for sexual recidivism since no other those for sexual recidivism since no other method of risk assessmentmethod of risk assessment

Conclusions:Conclusions:

Putting it all Putting it all Together!Together!

Risk Assessment: Points to RememberRisk Assessment: Points to Remember

Risk is not a static state. It fluctuates with Risk is not a static state. It fluctuates with changes in dynamic risk factors.changes in dynamic risk factors.

Actuarial risk level provides the long term Actuarial risk level provides the long term potential of recidivism.potential of recidivism.

Dynamic risk factors provide indications of Dynamic risk factors provide indications of problematic areas that can be addressed problematic areas that can be addressed to manage the risk.to manage the risk.

Acute risk factors provide indications Acute risk factors provide indications about when sexual recidivism may occur.about when sexual recidivism may occur.

Start with the Right Information:Start with the Right Information:

Gather all relevant facts – look for:Gather all relevant facts – look for:

static risk static risk dynamic riskdynamic risk targeting of dynamic risk factors in targeting of dynamic risk factors in

treatment & outcome re: dynamic risk treatment & outcome re: dynamic risk factors, skillsfactors, skills

indicators of manageability of riskindicators of manageability of risk community supportcommunity support indicators of deteriorationindicators of deterioration

Reviewing Risk Information:Reviewing Risk Information:

Consider long-term (static) riskConsider long-term (static) risk

Consider dynamic risk factors in individual caseConsider dynamic risk factors in individual case

Consider risk for non-sexual recidivism Consider risk for non-sexual recidivism separatelyseparately

Apply weight to actuarial and structured Apply weight to actuarial and structured empirically based assessments - empirically based assessments - notnot to to unstructured clinical judgment of risk (i.e., unstructured clinical judgment of risk (i.e., based on traditional models of based on traditional models of psychopathology)psychopathology)

Reviewing Treatment Results:Reviewing Treatment Results:

Consider treatment outcome:Consider treatment outcome:

successful completion versus drop-outsuccessful completion versus drop-out

consider the offender’s understanding of consider the offender’s understanding of his/her risk his/her risk && of his self-management plan of his self-management plan

consider the offender’s ability to consider the offender’s ability to implement his plan (is his release plan implement his plan (is his release plan congruent with his self-management plan?)congruent with his self-management plan?)

Recommendations - ManagementRecommendations - Management

Consider presence & extent of dynamic risk factors in Consider presence & extent of dynamic risk factors in individual casesindividual cases

Consider the offender’s willingness (look for Consider the offender’s willingness (look for behavioural indicators) to work cooperatively to behavioural indicators) to work cooperatively to manage his/her riskmanage his/her risk

Consider past history with supervision – evidence of Consider past history with supervision – evidence of adherence to conditions?adherence to conditions?

Apply greater weight to presence & extent of acute Apply greater weight to presence & extent of acute risk factors (rather than static risk potential) if risk factors (rather than static risk potential) if purpose is post-suspension review.purpose is post-suspension review.

In this context, pay particular attention to victim In this context, pay particular attention to victim access; hostility; rejection of supervision; & sexual access; hostility; rejection of supervision; & sexual preoccupation.preoccupation.

Thank you!Thank you!

* For full description of the functioning of COSAs, see:* For full description of the functioning of COSAs, see:

Circles of Support & Accountability: An Evaluation of the Circles of Support & Accountability: An Evaluation of the Pilot Project in South-Central Ontario. Wilson, R.J., Picheca, Pilot Project in South-Central Ontario. Wilson, R.J., Picheca, J., & Prinzo (2005). Research Report R-168. Correctional J., & Prinzo (2005). Research Report R-168. Correctional Service Canada.Service Canada.

Available at: Available at: www.csc-scc.gc.cawww.csc-scc.gc.ca (on main page left menu, (on main page left menu, click on Research; select Research Reports; scroll to R-168).click on Research; select Research Reports; scroll to R-168).

Sexual Offenders: What the Research Reveals Franca Cortoni, Ph.D., C.Psych. School of Criminology...

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