Cosmic rays and climate change Henrik Svensmark, Center for Sun Climate Research Space DTU.
-
Upload
martin-cross -
Category
Documents
-
view
220 -
download
0
Transcript of Cosmic rays and climate change Henrik Svensmark, Center for Sun Climate Research Space DTU.
![Page 1: Cosmic rays and climate change Henrik Svensmark, Center for Sun Climate Research Space DTU.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062322/5697c01b1a28abf838ccf4a0/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Cosmic rays and climate change
Henrik Svensmark,
Center for Sun Climate Research
Space DTU
![Page 2: Cosmic rays and climate change Henrik Svensmark, Center for Sun Climate Research Space DTU.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062322/5697c01b1a28abf838ccf4a0/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Cosmic rays and climate change
• Cosmic rays and climate – Definitions– Empirical evidence
• Experimental efforts and results
• Does is work in the real atmosphere?
![Page 3: Cosmic rays and climate change Henrik Svensmark, Center for Sun Climate Research Space DTU.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062322/5697c01b1a28abf838ccf4a0/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Evolution of SN1993JSN 1993J VLBI. III. The Evolution of the Radio Shell
M. F. Bietenholz , N. Bartel , and M. P. RupenThe Astrophysical Journal, 597:374-398, 2003
8.4 GHz, from t = 50d to t = 2787d5000 AU
![Page 4: Cosmic rays and climate change Henrik Svensmark, Center for Sun Climate Research Space DTU.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062322/5697c01b1a28abf838ccf4a0/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
What are Cosmic Rays?Heliosphere, Cosmic Rays and Solar Activity
![Page 5: Cosmic rays and climate change Henrik Svensmark, Center for Sun Climate Research Space DTU.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062322/5697c01b1a28abf838ccf4a0/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Cosmic ray shower (Movie)
About 70 muons/s /m2 at the Earths surface In 24 hours about 12 million muons goes through a human body
![Page 6: Cosmic rays and climate change Henrik Svensmark, Center for Sun Climate Research Space DTU.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062322/5697c01b1a28abf838ccf4a0/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
6
Cosmic rays and climate over the last 10.000 years
Bond et al, Science 294, 2001
Last 1000 yearsLittle Ice Age
• Little Ice Age is merely the most recent of a dozen such events during the last 10.000 years
Adapted from Kirkby
According to icecores CO2 levels has been constant ~280 ppm
![Page 7: Cosmic rays and climate change Henrik Svensmark, Center for Sun Climate Research Space DTU.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062322/5697c01b1a28abf838ccf4a0/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Strong coherence between solar variability and the monsoon in Omanbetween 9 and 6 kyr ago
The formation of stalagmites in northern Oman has recorded past northwardshifts of the intertropical convergence zone3, whose northward migration stops near the southern shoreline of Arabia in thepresent climate
U. Neff et al., Nature 411, 290 - 293 (2001)
![Page 8: Cosmic rays and climate change Henrik Svensmark, Center for Sun Climate Research Space DTU.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062322/5697c01b1a28abf838ccf4a0/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
”Since everybody thought that the continous crop faliure was caused by witches from devilish hate, the whole contry stood up for their eradication” Johann Linden Travis ca. 1590
Cosmic rays and climate over the last millennium
![Page 9: Cosmic rays and climate change Henrik Svensmark, Center for Sun Climate Research Space DTU.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062322/5697c01b1a28abf838ccf4a0/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
How can STARS influence Climate?
Net effect of clouds is to cool the Earth by about 30 W/m2
![Page 10: Cosmic rays and climate change Henrik Svensmark, Center for Sun Climate Research Space DTU.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062322/5697c01b1a28abf838ccf4a0/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Svensmark & Friis-Christensen, JASTP 1997, Svensmark, PRL 1998, Marsh & Svensmark, PRL, 2000. (update 2005)
Link between Low Cloud Cover and Galactic Cosmic Rays?Solar cycle variation
ISCCP IR Low cloud data
Calibration?
10
0
-10
-20
![Page 11: Cosmic rays and climate change Henrik Svensmark, Center for Sun Climate Research Space DTU.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062322/5697c01b1a28abf838ccf4a0/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
If the link is between cosmic rays and clouds, what would the mechanism be?
Empirical evidence for a relation between cosmic rays and climate
![Page 12: Cosmic rays and climate change Henrik Svensmark, Center for Sun Climate Research Space DTU.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062322/5697c01b1a28abf838ccf4a0/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Cloud Drop
CCN(Cloud Condensation Nuclei)
CN(Condensation Nuclei)
UCN(Ultra Fine Condensation Nuclei)
0.1 m 10 m0.01 m0.001 m
Aerosol formation and growth
Size
H2SO4 &
Water&
OrganicVapors
Possible link between clouds and cosmic rays
Nucleation processis unsolved
![Page 13: Cosmic rays and climate change Henrik Svensmark, Center for Sun Climate Research Space DTU.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062322/5697c01b1a28abf838ccf4a0/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Cloud Drop
CCN(Cloud Condensation Nuclei)
CN(Condensation Nuclei)
UCN(Ultra Fine Condensation Nuclei)
0.1 m 10 m0.01 m0.001 m
Aerosol formation and growth
Size
H2SO4 &
Water
Vapors
What is the importance of IONS ?
-
+
Cosmic Ray Ionization &
![Page 14: Cosmic rays and climate change Henrik Svensmark, Center for Sun Climate Research Space DTU.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062322/5697c01b1a28abf838ccf4a0/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Gamma source Gamma source
Muon detector Radon detectorSO2
O3
H2O
Atmospheric conditions!SKY experiment2002 - 2006
![Page 15: Cosmic rays and climate change Henrik Svensmark, Center for Sun Climate Research Space DTU.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062322/5697c01b1a28abf838ccf4a0/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Steady state experiment
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 q (cm-3 s-1)
H2SO4 concentration ~ 2*108 (cm-3)
O3 ~ 25 ppbSO2 ~ 300 pptRH ~ 35%
Svensmark et al. Proc. R. Soc. A (2007) 463, 385–396
![Page 16: Cosmic rays and climate change Henrik Svensmark, Center for Sun Climate Research Space DTU.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062322/5697c01b1a28abf838ccf4a0/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Does it work in the real atmosphere?
Statements
1. There are always plenty of CCN in the atmosphere a few more will not matter.
2. It is not important.
![Page 17: Cosmic rays and climate change Henrik Svensmark, Center for Sun Climate Research Space DTU.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062322/5697c01b1a28abf838ccf4a0/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Coronal Mass EjectionsNatural experiments for testing the GCR-atmosphere link
![Page 18: Cosmic rays and climate change Henrik Svensmark, Center for Sun Climate Research Space DTU.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062322/5697c01b1a28abf838ccf4a0/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
A Classic Forbush Decrease
![Page 19: Cosmic rays and climate change Henrik Svensmark, Center for Sun Climate Research Space DTU.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062322/5697c01b1a28abf838ccf4a0/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Cosmic ray energy change during Forbush Decrease
Local interstellar Spectrum
Heliosphere
Forbushdecrease
Neutron monitorsSouth Pole
ClimaxHuncayo
![Page 20: Cosmic rays and climate change Henrik Svensmark, Center for Sun Climate Research Space DTU.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062322/5697c01b1a28abf838ccf4a0/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
120 Neutron monitors ( Pm range 10 GV – 47 GV)
Nagoya Muon monitors ( Pm range 60 GV – 119 GV)
Change in COSMIC RAY Spectrum 0- 120 GeV
at 1 AU (Distance of Earth)
Monte Carlo Simulation with CORSIKAof 104 Cosmic ray Showers in the atmosphere.
Change in IONIZATION 0-3 km
Ranking the Forbush events
For each Forbush decrease
Ranking
![Page 21: Cosmic rays and climate change Henrik Svensmark, Center for Sun Climate Research Space DTU.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062322/5697c01b1a28abf838ccf4a0/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Twenty-six FD events in the period 1987-2007
Ranked according to their depression of ionization in the Earth’s lower atmosphere (< 3 km)
Svensmark, Bondo and Svensmark 2008
![Page 22: Cosmic rays and climate change Henrik Svensmark, Center for Sun Climate Research Space DTU.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062322/5697c01b1a28abf838ccf4a0/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
5 strongest Forbush decreases: SSM/I dataLiquid water content of clouds over oceans
NOTE: SSM/I data
Ionization change ~ 10%
Liquid water change ~ 6%
Suggest that a large fraction of clouds are influenced by ionization
M ~ 3 Gton
![Page 23: Cosmic rays and climate change Henrik Svensmark, Center for Sun Climate Research Space DTU.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062322/5697c01b1a28abf838ccf4a0/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
AERONET, SSM/I, MODIS and ISCCP data for 5 strongest Forbush decreases
Aerosols Clouds
Liquid water Liquid cloud fraction Low Clouds
![Page 24: Cosmic rays and climate change Henrik Svensmark, Center for Sun Climate Research Space DTU.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062322/5697c01b1a28abf838ccf4a0/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
The presence of aerosols in the atmosphere affect the color of the sun as seen from the ground.
A hint from observations of a mechanism
![Page 25: Cosmic rays and climate change Henrik Svensmark, Center for Sun Climate Research Space DTU.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062322/5697c01b1a28abf838ccf4a0/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
AERONET data
Angström exponent: is the aerosol optical thickness dependence of wavelength . The Angström exponent is inversely related to the average size of the particles: the smaller the particles, the larger the exponent. For shorter wave lengths (340,380,440,500 nm) a decrease will mean fewer small particles.
5 strongest events
Fewersmall particles
An
gstr
öm e
xpon
ent
Svensmark, Bondo and Svensmark 2008
![Page 26: Cosmic rays and climate change Henrik Svensmark, Center for Sun Climate Research Space DTU.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062322/5697c01b1a28abf838ccf4a0/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Cloud Drop
CCN(Cloud Condensation Nuclei)
CN(Condensation Nuclei)
UCN(Ultra Fine Condensation Nuclei)
0.1 m 10 m0.01 m0.001 mSize
H2SO4 &
Water
Vapors
Ion induced formation of aerosols
-
+
Typical gas phase Aerosol Cloud formation and growth
![Page 27: Cosmic rays and climate change Henrik Svensmark, Center for Sun Climate Research Space DTU.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062322/5697c01b1a28abf838ccf4a0/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
PredictionThe near future: Cooling
The sun will show how important it is
![Page 28: Cosmic rays and climate change Henrik Svensmark, Center for Sun Climate Research Space DTU.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062322/5697c01b1a28abf838ccf4a0/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Conclusion
Variation in cosmic rays are associated with changes in Earths Variation in cosmic rays are associated with changes in Earths climate. Strong empirical evidence. (not discussed: long time climate. Strong empirical evidence. (not discussed: long time scales e.g. million of years)scales e.g. million of years)
Evidence suggest that clouds are the key player.Evidence suggest that clouds are the key player.
New insight to the physical mechanism has been demonstrated New insight to the physical mechanism has been demonstrated experimentally and observationallyexperimentally and observationally• Involving ions and aerosol formationInvolving ions and aerosol formation• Linking to clouds and thereby the energy budget of the EarthLinking to clouds and thereby the energy budget of the Earth•Observations further suggest that a large fraction of clouds Observations further suggest that a large fraction of clouds are influenced by ionization. (6% change in liquid water for a are influenced by ionization. (6% change in liquid water for a 10 % change in ionization)10 % change in ionization)
Understanding the cosmic ray climate link could have large Understanding the cosmic ray climate link could have large implications in our understanding of climate changes. implications in our understanding of climate changes.
The theory ”Cosmic rays and climate” is alive and strong The theory ”Cosmic rays and climate” is alive and strong
![Page 29: Cosmic rays and climate change Henrik Svensmark, Center for Sun Climate Research Space DTU.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062322/5697c01b1a28abf838ccf4a0/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Thanks:
Torsten Bondo
Jacob Svensmark
Martin Enghoff
Nigel D. Marsh
Nigel Calder
Jens Olaf Pedersen
Ulrik I. Uggerhøj
Sean Paling
Center for
Sun-Climate Research
DTU-space