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Transcript of Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 World Population Growth.
Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002
World Population Growth
Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002
Population Dynamics
Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002
Recall a Point Made by Malthus: Population always has the potential to increase more rapidly than the production of food supplies. Boserup’s Theory: Historically within human populations production tends to Expand to the level demanded by population
Population Dynamics
Population Growth: Birthrate minus mortality Population Pressure: The tendency for population levels to expand to the carrying capacity. This is often translated into social pressure to increase production Fertility Rate: Live Births per 1000 women aged 15-44 in a given year.
Birth Rate: The number of live births per thousand in a given year.
Fecundity: The physiological capacity to produce a live child.
Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002
Comparison of pelvic apertures in five primates
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Human, Australopithecine, and Chimpanzee Birth Processes
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Key Points of Natural Selection in The Human Life Cycle
Implantation of the Zygote ~ first three weeks Early development of the embryo ~ first
trimester Birth ~ infants Birth ~ mothers 14 ~ 30 years First two years ~ disease in infants Late Adulthood ~ cumulative disease load,
dental decay
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Avenues of Pre-industrial Population Regulation
Care of infants and children– Heavy work loads and restricted diets
for pregnant women– Direct Abortion (universal phenomena)– Infanticide
• Indirect• Direct
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Avenues of Pre-industrial Population Regulation
Treatment of women and girls– Forced or incidental malnutrition– Polygyny– Surgical mutilation
Intensity and duration of breast-feeding
– Extended Amenorrhea due to breast feeding
– Lowered Fucundity
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Avenues of Pre-industrial Population Regulation
Frequency of, and prohibitions against, intercourse
– Social proscriptions against sexual intercourse
– Restrictions on the age of marriage
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Important Factors Governing Fertility Rates Age at first menses
Age of marriage/sexual activity
Disease Load
Nutritional Health
Mortality
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Foraging Reproduction
Moderate death and birth rates Value of children: moderate Birth control
• low fat diet for women• prolonged breastfeeding• induced abortion
Few reproduction specialists
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Agricultural Reproduction
High growth rate Value of children: high Increased reliance on direct means of
birth control• herbs• induced abortion
Midwives, herbalists
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Industrial Reproduction
Negative growth for industrialized countries
Value of children: mixed High growth in developing countries Birth control grounded in science
• in vitro fertilization
Highly developed reproduction specialists
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Culture’s affect on Reproduction
Family traditions….
Government policies….
International organizations….
….influence:
• when to start having sex• how often• who with• how many children to have
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450 plant species worldwide contain natural substances that can be used to control fertility
Religious, economic andsocial factors affect decisions to induce abortion
Fertility Control
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Peas as Birth Control?
• Historically population growth in Tibet has been stable
• Tibetans subsisted on barley and peas
• When mice were fed a diet of 20% peas, litter sizes dropped by half
• When mice are fed a diet of 30% peas, they failed to reproduce at all
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Culture and Death
Infanticide
The deliberate killing of an offspring
• due to child deformity or sickness• if child fails to meet parental expectation• because of poverty
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Culture and Death
Suicide....
Catholicism
….is a sin
Buddhism
….has been used to make political statements
Asia and S Pacific
….is a noble act
Social changes, brought about by industrialization, are often not matched by people’s ability to attain new goals leading to high suicide rates (especially among youth).
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Culture and Death
Spousal Abuse Warfare
– accounts for high proportion of male deaths in some horticultural societies
Ethnocide– destruction of a culture
Genocide– physical extermination of a cultural group
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A.D.2000
A.D.1000
A.D.1
1000B.C.
2000B.C.
3000B.C.
4000B.C.
5000B.C.
6000B.C.
7000B.C.
1+ million years
8
7
6
5
2
1
4
3
OldStoneAge New Stone Age
BronzeAge
IronAge
MiddleAges
ModernAge
Black Death —The Plague
9
10
11
12
A.D.3000
A.D.4000
A.D.5000
18001900
1950
1975
2000
2100
Future
Billions
World Population Growth Through History
Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998).
Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002
Number of years to add each billion (year)
Ninth
Eighth
Seventh
Sixth
Fifth
Fourth
Third
Second
First Billion All of Human History (1800)
123 (1930)
33 (1960)
14 (1974)
13 (1987)
12 (1999)
14 (2013)
15 (2028)
26 (2054)
World Population Growth, in Billions
Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. Third through ninth billion: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision (medium scenario).
Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002
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Population of the United States, by Age and Sex,
1950-2050 (millions)
male female
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Population Structures by Age and Sex, 2005 Millions
300 100 100 300300 200 100 0 100 200 300
Less Developed Regions
More Developed Regions
Male Female Male Female
80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 17-19 10-16
5-90-4
Age
Age Distribution of the World’s Population
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.
Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002
Desire for Smaller FamiliesWomen With Two Children Who Say They Want No More Children
Percent
22
13
52
29
50
2933
38
5960
Bangladesh Egypt Guatemala Kenya Zimbabwe
Late 1980s Late 1990s/Early 2000s
Source: ORC Macro, Demographic and Health Surveys, 1988-2000.
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Diverging Trends in Fertility ReductionAverage number of children per woman
6.7
6.0
6.67.0
5.5
6.9
6.35.8
8.2
3.5
7.0
5.1
3.33.0
2.4 2.3 2.4
4.3
Bangla-desh
Egypt India Indo-nesia
Iran Nepal Pakistan Turkey Yemen
1950-1955 2000-2005
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.
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Billions
Growth in More, Less Developed Countries
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Less Developed Countries
More Developed Countries
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.
Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002
© 2 0 0 3 P o p u la t io n R e fe re nc e B u re a u
D e c lin e o r G ro w th , 2 0 0 2 -2 0 2 5P e rc e n t
3
12
-17
-14
-8
6
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Trends in Aging, by World RegionPopulation Ages 65 and Older
Percent
7
3
6 6
14
11
4
10 10
21
World Africa Asia Latin America/Caribbean
MoreDeveloped
Regions
2000 2025
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.
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Trends in Population Growth Worldwide
Population Increase and Growth Rate, Five-Year Periods
7987
82 79 77 75 7369
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-1995
1995-2000
2000-2005
2005-2010
2010-2015
2015-2020
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
Net population added per year Annual population growth rate
Mill
ions
Per
cen
t in
crea
se p
er y
ear
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.
Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002
30
15 17
55
47
37 38
75
60
53 54
84 83
41
75
World Africa Asia Latin America/Caribbean
MoreDeveloped
Regions
1950 2000 2030
Urban PopulationPercent
Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2001 Revision (medium scenario), 2002.
Trends in Urbanization, by Region
Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002
Number of Women 15 to 49Billions
0.62
0.86
1.31
1.75
1.972.05
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Women of Childbearing Age
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.
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U.S. Population Density per Square Mile
Regional HIV/AIDS statistics and features, end of 2002
* The proportion of adults (15 to 49 years of age) living with HIV/AIDS in 2002, using 2002 population numbers ** Hetero: heterosexual transmission – IDU: transmission through injecting drug use – MSM: sexual transmission among men who have sex with men
Sub-Saharan Africa
North Africa & Middle East
South and South-East Asia
East Asia & Pacific
Latin America
Caribbean
Eastern Europe & Central Asia
Western Europe
North America
Australia & New Zealand
TOTAL
late ’70searly ’80s
late ’80s
late ’80s
late ’80s
late ’70searly ’80s
late ’70searly ’80s
early ’90s
late ’70searly ’80s
late ’70searly ’80s
late ’70searly ’80s
29.4 million
550 000
6.0 million
1.2 million
1.5 million
440 000
1.2 million
570 000
980 000
15 000
42 million
8.8%
0.3%
0.6%
0.1%
0.6%
2.4%
0.6%
0.3%
0.6%
0.1%
1.2%
58%
55%
36%
24%
30%
50%
27%
25%
20%
7%
50%
Hetero
Hetero, IDU
Hetero, IDU
IDU, Hetero, MSM
MSM, IDU, Hetero
Hetero, MSM
IDU
MSM, IDU
MSM, IDU, Hetero
MSM
Epidemic
started
Adults & childrenliving with HIV/AIDS
Adult prevalenc
erate *
% of HIV-positive
adults who are
women
Main mode(s) of transmission for those living with
HIV/AIDS **
Adults & children newly
infected with HIV
3.5 million
83 000
700 000
270 000
150 000
60 000
250 000
30 000
45 000
500
5 million
Adults and children estimated to be living Adults and children estimated to be living with HIV/AIDS as of end 2002with HIV/AIDS as of end 2002
Total: 42 million
Western Europe
570 000570 000North Africa & Middle East
550 000550 000Sub-Saharan
Africa
29.4 29.4 millionmillion
Eastern Europe & Central Asia
1.2 million1.2 million
South & South-East Asia
6 million6 million
Australia & New Zealand
15 00015 000
North America
980 000980 000Caribbean
440 000440 000
Latin America
1.5 1.5 millionmillion
East Asia & Pacific
1.2 million1.2 million
Estimated number of adults and childrenEstimated number of adults and childrennewly infected with HIV during 2002newly infected with HIV during 2002
Total: 5 million
Western Europe
30 00030 000North Africa & Middle East
83 00083 000Sub-Saharan
Africa
3.5 3.5 millionmillion
Eastern Europe & Central Asia
250 000250 000East Asia & Pacific
270 000270 000South & South-East Asia
700 000700 000
Australia & New Zealand
500500
North America
45 00045 000Caribbean
60 00060 000
Latin America
150 000150 000
Estimated adult and child deaths Estimated adult and child deaths from HIV/AIDS during 2002from HIV/AIDS during 2002
Total: 3.1 million
Western Europe
8 0008 000North Africa & Middle East
37 00037 000Sub-Saharan
Africa
2.4 2.4 millionmillion
Eastern Europe &Central Asia
25 00025 000East Asia & Pacific
45 00045 000South & South-East Asia
440 000440 000
Australia & New Zealand
<100<100
North America
15 00015 000Caribbean
42 00042 000
Latin America
60 00060 000
Children Children (<15 years)(<15 years) estimated to be living estimated to be living with HIV/AIDS as of end 2002with HIV/AIDS as of end 2002
Western Europe
5 0005 000North Africa & Middle East
40 00040 000sub-Saharan
Africa
2.8 2.8 millionmillion
Eastern Europe &Central Asia
16 00016 000East Asia & Pacific
4 0004 000South & South-East Asia
240 000240 000
Australia & New Zealand
< 200< 200
North America
10 00010 000Caribbean
20 00020 000
Latin America
45 00045 000
Total: 3.2 million