Copia de Promedio Movil
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Transcript of Copia de Promedio Movil
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numero de periodo k = 4
Semana Error |Error|
1 17
2 21
3 19
4 23 23 23
5 18 20.00 -2 2
6 16 20.25 -4.25 4.25
7 20 19.00 1 1
8 18 19.25 -1.25 1.25
9 22 18.00 4 4
10 20 19.00 1 1
11 15 20.00 -5 5
12 22 18.75 3.25 3.25
13 21 19.75 18.94 0.81
14 20 19.75
MAD 5.0 19.5
MSE 8.2
A!"ua#A"
$ro%e!!ion&"
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529
4
18.0625
1
1.5625
16
1
25
10.5625
3.31
Error2
0 2 4 6 8 10 120
5
10
15
20
25
$romedio M'(i#
A!"ua#A"
$ro%e!!ion&"
Semana
)en"a* +,a#one*
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14
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k = 5
Semana Error |Error|
1 17
2 21
3 19
4 23
5 18
6 16 19.9 3.87 3.87 14.95
7 20 18.7 -1.33 1.33 1.78
8 18 18.9 0.87 0.87 0.75
9 22 18.5 -3.53 3.53 12.48
10 20 19.5 -0.53 0.53 0.28
11 15 19.9 4.87 4.87 23.68
12 22 18.5 -3.53 3.53 12.48
13 19.47
MAD 2.6 $eriodo )a#or $e*o
MSE 3.1 "-4 1 0.07
"-3 2 0.13
"-2 3 0.20
"-1 4 0.27
" 5 0.33
15
A!"ua#A"
$ro%e!!ion&"
Error2
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20 0.2
10 0.3
30 0.5
20 22.00
10
0 2 4 6 8 100
5
10
15
20
25
$romedio M'(i# $onderado
A!"ua#A"
$ro%e!!ion&"
Semana
)en"a* +,a#one*
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12 14
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CON K IMPAR
k = 3
Semana Error |Error|
1 17
2 21 19 2.00 2.00 4.00
3 19 21 -2.00 3.00 4.00
4 23 20 3.00 1.00 9.00
5 18 19 -1.00 2.00 1.00
6 16 18 -2.00 2.00 4.00
7 20 18 2.00 2.00 4.00
8 18 20 -2.00 2.00 4.00
9 22 20 2.00 1.00 4.00
10 20 19 1.00 4.00 1.00
11 15 19 -4.00 0.00 16.00
12 22
13
MAD 1.9
MSE 2.3
CON K PAR
k = 4
Semana Error |Error|
1 17
2 21
3 19 20.125 -1.13 3.38 1.27
4 23 19.625 3.38 1.13 11.39
5 18 19.125 -1.13 2.63 1.27
6 16 18.625 -2.63 1.50 6.89
7 20 18.5 1.50 1.50 2.25
8 18 19.5 -1.50 2.63 2.25
9 22 19.375 2.63 0.75 6.89
10 20 19.25 0.75 0.00 0.56
11 15
12 22
13
MAD 1.7
MSE 2.0
A!"ua#A"
$ro%e!!ion&"
Error2
A!"ua#A" $ro%e!!ion&" Error2
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0 2 4 6 8 100
5
10
15
20
25
$romedio M'(i# .en"rado
A!"ua#A"
$ro%e!!ion&"
Semana
)en"a* +,a#one*
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12 14
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a#p/a 0.2
Semana Error |Error|
1 17 17.00
2 21 17.00 4.0 4.0 16.0
3 19 17.80 1.2 1.2 1.4
4 23 18.04 5.0 5.0 24.6
5 18 19.03 -1.0 1.0 1.1
6 16 18.83 -2.8 2.8 8.0
7 20 18.26 1.7 1.7 3.0
8 18 18.61 -0.6 0.6 0.4
9 22 18.49 3.5 3.5 12.3
10 20 19.19 0.8 0.8 0.7
11 15 19.35 -4.4 4.4 18.9
12 22 18.48 3.5 3.5 12.4
13 19.18
MAD 2.6
MSE 3.0
A!"ua#A"
$ro%e!!ion&"
Error2
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0 2 4 6 8 100
5
10
15
20
25
Sua(i0amien"o E1ponen!ia#
A!"ua#A"
$ro%e!!ion&"
Semana
)en"a* +,a#one*
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12 14
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x y
Semana A!"ua# %
1 21.6 21.6 1
2 22.9 45.8 4
3 25.5 76.5 9
4 21.9 87.6 16
5 23.9 119.5 256 27.5 165 36
7 31.5 220.5 49
8 29.7 237.6 64
9 28.6 257.4 81
10 31.4 314 100
Formulas Excel
$endien"e 1.1
n"er!ep"o 20.4
Manual n 10
$endien"e 1.1 promedio 5.5
n"er!ep"o 20.4 % promedio 26.45
2
)en"a* i!i!#e
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0 2 4 6 8 10 120
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
= 1.1 20.4
Ao
"a* +1000*
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A#p/a 0.250
e"a 0.100
t A(t) a^(t) b^(t) F(t)
:anuar% 1 28 28.00 1.35
&e;ruar% 2 27 28.76 1.29 29.35
Mar!/ 3 30 30.04 1.29 30.05Apri# 4 34 32.00 1.36 31.33
Ma% 5 32 33.02 1.32 33.35
:une 6 33 34.00 1.29 34.34
:u#% 7 32 34.47 1.21 35.29
Au,u*" 8 36 35.76 1.22 35.68
Sep"em;er 9 33 35.98 1.12 36.97
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2 4 6 8 10 12
ME>
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