COPA Market & Industry Data December 12 th , 2012
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Transcript of COPA Market & Industry Data December 12 th , 2012
COPA
Market & Industry DataDecember 12th, 2012
Domtar Market & Industry Data
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North American UFS Industry Data
• UFS demand decreased 4.3% in YTD Oct. 2012 vs. YTD Oct. 2011
• UFS mill inventory ended Sept. 2012 at 26 days of supply, same as Sept. 2011
• UFS operating rates were 89% MTD Oct. 2012 & 90% Oct. YTD
Source: PPPC
Domtar Market & Industry Data
UCF DEMAND
3
000’s tonsYTD Oct.-12 YTD Oct.-11 %
change
Uncoated woodfree
Operating rate (Oct. MTD: 89%) 90% 90%
Total UFS demand 8,189 8,559 -4.3%
Cut-size demand 3,760 3,890 -3.3%
Offset & Opaque demand 2,012 2,135 -5.8%Envelope demand 814 871 -6.5%
Forms Bond demand 617 654 -5.7%
Other UFS demand 988 1,010 -2.2%
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UFS Industry Demand
700,000
750,000
800,000
850,000
900,000
950,000
2010
2012
Oct. YTD demand is 4.3% below 2011
Source: PPPC
2011
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North American Cut-Size* Shipments
300,000
350,000
400,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
10 shipments 11 shipments 12 shipments
Source: PPPC
• Cut-size includes colors multipurpose
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N.A. UFS Share by Capacity - 2012
Source: RISI Capacity Report
Total Capacity* = 11,096,000 short tons
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10,50011,00011,50012,00012,50013,00013,50014,00014,50015,00015,500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
N.A. UFS History of Capacity
• UFS capacity declined 6.2% in 2010, 2.4% in 2011, and -1.4% so far in 2012
‘000 of tons
-6.2%-2.4%
Source: PPPC
-6.0%
*Capacity numbers include the following: Mohawk’s, Wausau’s & Appleton closures, scheduled maintenance shutdowns, and scheduled UFS annual capacity of coated producers. Also added are the reopenings of Gorham & Gray’s Harbor paper
machines
-1.4%
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N.A. UFS Demand Forecast
in ’000 of tons
Source: PPPC/RISI
-3%-4%
-12%
-1%-1.0%
-12% -0% -1.0% -4% -4%
• %’s from past years may differ due to different calculation methologies (Imports, exports, ITB etc.)
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
PPPC Forecast RISI Forecast
-4.0%
-3.5% -3.8% -2.8%0.1%-12.7%-7.6%-5.3%
-3.2%-3.8% -2.8%
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0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Forms Bond
Copy
-5.5% in 2012
-4.8 % in 2013
In‘000 tons
Envelope
Forecast
-2.7% in 2012
-2.0% in 2013
Offset & Opaque
-5.7% in 2012
-3.8% in 2013
-6.8% in ’12
-3.8% in ‘13
Source: PPPC
UFS Demand Forecast by Grade
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Printing & Writing N.A.Operating Rate YTD 2012 vs. 2011(Operating rates %)
Source: PPPC
90%
93%
92%
91%
90%
93%
89%
94%
86%
87%
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
UCFS Unc. Mech CWF CM
Oct. 2011 Oct. 2012
Domtar Market & Industry Data
Distribution Channel – Market Share
Source: PPPC
Distribution Channel
2011 Tons
2010 % Market Share
2011 % Market Share
Merchants 869,000 25.2% 21.9%
OEM 232,000 5.5% 5.9%
Office Store – Retail 400,000 8.2% 10.1%
Office Store - Contract 1,774,000 46.8% 44.7%
Food/Drug/Mass 28,000 .7% .7%
Club Stores 17,000 .8% .4%
Wholesalers 329,000 7% 8.3%
Online/Direct 315,000 5.9% 8.0%
Total 3,965,000 100%
Merchants21.9%
OEM5.9%
Office Store – Retail10.1%
Office Store –Contract
44.7%
Food/Drug/Mass.7%
Club Stores.4%
Wholesalers8.3%
Online/Direct8%
Domtar Market & Industry Data
Brand – Market Share
Private Label59.2%
Mill Brand29.3%
OEM8.7%
All Others2.8%
Source: PPPC
Brand2011Tons
2010 % Market Share
2011 % Market Share
Mill Brand 1,163,000 30.5% 29.3%
OEM 344,000 9.2% 8.7%
Private Label 2,347,000 57.9% 59.2%
All Others 111,000 2.6% 2.8%
Total 3,965,000 100%