Contribution of land use change models to REDD Process in the Congo Basin
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Transcript of Contribution of land use change models to REDD Process in the Congo Basin
Contribution of land use change models to REDD Process in
the Congo Basin
GLOBAL LANDSCAPES FORUM/WARSAW16TH NOVEMBER 2013
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Martin TADOUM,Deputy Executive Secretary /COMIFAC
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Commission des Forêts d’Afrique Centrale
Background
• Congo Basin: 2nd largest tropical rainforest, low deforestation rate
• Strong interest for REDD+ expressed by COMIFAC countries
• Different stages of the development of REDD in the region
Phase 1 Readiness
Phase 2 Demonstration
activities
Phase 3 Positive incentives
for verified performance
Capacity Development
Partial NFMS
Fully-operational
NFMSEquatorial Guinea
ChadBurundiRwanda
Sao Tome & Principe
Central African Republic
Cameroon
Democratic Republic of Congo
Gabon
Republic of Congo
Current situation on REDD
One of the current challenges of REDD+ focus on the abilities of countries to define the reference leval and establish a consensual and sustainable MRV system
The adoption of a specific methodology to estimate the Reference level involves important technical ramifications
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REDD Methodological issues
Launch a study on modeling impact of development trajectories by 2030
Commission des Forêts d’Afrique Centrale
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Nat
iona
l for
est
cove
r
South Amazon Basin Europe North America
North East AsiaSouth Asia
Time
Atlantic forest
South East Asia
Oceania
West Africa
Congo BasinHFLD profile
Stage 1: undisturbed/little disturbed forests
Stage 2: forest frontiers(high deforestation)
Stage 3: forest mosaic with stabilized cover (low deforestation)
Stage 4: increasing forest coverthrough afforestation and
reforestation
Forest transition curve
Annual deforestation/forest degradation rates 1990-2000 and 2000-2005
Source: Authors, derived from de Wasseige et al. , 2012
Interest of the study
Congo Basin countries may be entering the second stage, with
accelerated forest losses.
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.0900000000000001
0.05
0.17
0.0900000000000001 1990-2000
2000-2005
Commission des Forêts d’Afrique Centrale
Development of Congobiom model and its application
Congobiom is an economic model for the Congo Basin, derived from GLOBIOM developed by IIASA
This modelling tool can strengthen the better understanding of the potentiel future trends of deforestation in the Congo Bassin by
Providing a depth analysis of the major drivers of deforestation for the next decades in the countries of the Congo Basin by analyzing internal pressures (population growth, development needs, etc…) but also external pressures (commodity prices for example)
Commission des Forêts d’Afrique Centrale
Development of Congobiom model and its applications (cont.)
providing the countries and their decision makers with scientifically sound analytical tools that can help them better understand how the development of economic sectors can affect the forest cover and how the impact of policy choices made by governments can affect forest cover and income that could be generated through REDD +
Modelling could be a support planning decision tool
Commission des Forêts d’Afrique Centrale
• Congobiom is now extended to all 10 countries of COMIFAC and should then be refined
• Training of national experts from the pilot countries for REDD-PAC project is ongoing
• The development of a national model in each pilot countries by the end of December is one of the resolution set at the regional worshop for the REDD-PAC project in October.
Current phase of the Project and next steps in the Congo Basin
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Commission des Forêts d’Afrique Centrale
Thank You
Tél : (+237) 22 21 35 11 (+237) 22 21 35 12 Fax: (+237) 22 20 48 03 BP. 20818 Yaoundé Cameroun Email : [email protected] - [email protected] Site web : www.comifac.org
Une dimension régionale pour la conservation et la gestion durable des écosystèmes forestiers
COMMISSION DES FORETS D’AFRIQUE CENTRALE