CONSUMER CONFIDENCE - Nielsen · Q4-2014 NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX *Survey is based on...
Transcript of CONSUMER CONFIDENCE - Nielsen · Q4-2014 NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX *Survey is based on...
C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C ECONCERNS AND SPENDING INTENTIONS AROUND THE WORLDQUARTER 4, 2014
2014 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SERIES | 4TH EDITION
2 QUARTER 4 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT2
• Globalconsumerconfidencedeclinedtwoindexpointsto96,aseveryregionregressedslightlyinthefourthquarterof2014
• NorthAmericaandAsia-Pacific—theonlyregionswithconfidencescoresabovethe100-baselinereading—eachdeclinedoneindexpoint
• ConfidenceinLatinAmericadeclinedmost,fallingthreeindexpoints;Europedeclinedtwopoints,andAfrica/MiddleEastdeclinedonepoint
• Theglobaljoboutlookfellthreepercentagepoints,whilepersonalfinanceperspectivesandimmediatespendingintentionsdeclinedonepercentagepointeach
• RecessionarysentimentfellsharplyinNorthAmerica,butroseinLatinAmericaandEurope
• ConfidencefelltwopointsintheU.S.,andChinaposteditsfirstdeclinein2014
GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE:DOWN TWO POINTS IN THE FOURTH QUARTER 2014; UP TWO POINTS YEAR OVER YEAR
Globalconsumerconfidenceended2014withanindexscoreof96—a
declineoftwoindexpointsfromthepreviousquarter,whichcomesafter
severalquartersofpositivemomentum.Whileconfidencefellslightlyin
everyregioninthefourthquarterfromthepreviousquarter,theglobal
indexclosedtheyearuptwopointsfromlastyear(94inQ42013).The
index,whichhasbeenonaslowandsteadyriseforabouttwoyears,is
stillaboveapre-recessionlevelof94fromthird-quarter2007.
3Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company 3
ABOUT THE GLOBAL SURVEY METHODOLOGY
Thefindingsinthissurveyare
basedonrespondentswith
onlineaccessin60countries
(unlessotherwisenoted).While
anonlinesurveymethodology
allowsfortremendousscale
andglobalreach,itprovidesa
perspectiveonlyonthehabits
ofexistingInternetusers,not
totalpopulations.Indeveloping
marketswhereonlinepenetration
isstillgrowing,audiencesmay
beyoungerandmoreaffluent
thanthegeneralpopulationof
thatcountry.Inaddition,survey
responsesarebasedonclaimed
behaviorratherthanactual
metereddata.
ConsumerconfidencedeclinedonepointinNorthAmerica(106)and
Asia-Pacific(106)inthefourthquarter—theonlyregionstoscoreabove
thebaselinereadingof100.Confidencealsodecreasedonepointin
theMiddleEast/Africa(95),threepointsinLatinAmerica(88)andtwo
pointsinEurope(76)fromthepreviousquarter.
Amongtheworld’sbiggesteconomies,consumerconfidencedecreased
twopointsintheU.S.(106),fourpointsinChina(107)andfourpoints
inJapan(73).Conversely,confidenceroseonepointeachinGermany
(98)andintheU.K.(94).
“Confidenceinmorethanhalfoftheglobalmarketsmeasuredretreated
slightlyinthefourthquarterwithcontinuedgeopoliticaltensionsand
someslowinginemerging-marketgrowth,”saidLouiseKeely,senior
vicepresident,Nielsenandpresident,TheDemandInstitute.“Latin
Americanmarkets,suchasBrazil,sawparticularlylargedeclinesin
confidencecomparedtolastquarterandayearago,reflectiveofthe
economicslowdownthere.WhilerecoveryinEuropecontinuestobe
weak,andthereisrecentspeculationofquantitativeeasingbythe
EuropeanCentralBank,confidenceisstillupslightlyinmosteconomies
fromayearago,suggestingthatfearsofyetanothereurozonerecession
havenotyethitoverallconsumers’outlook.IntheU.S.,wherelabor
marketshavecontinuedtorecover,confidenceisupsignificantlyfrom
itslevelayearago.”
Inthelatestonlinesurvey,conductedNov.10-28,2014,consumer
confidenceincreasedin17of60marketsmeasuredbyNielsen(28%),
comparedwith39markets(65%)inthethirdquarter.India’sscore
of129,thehighestindexamong60markets,increasedthreepoints
fromthethirdquarter.Italyreportedthelowestscoreof45,aquarterly
declineoftwopoints.Ireland(90)showedthebiggestimprovement,
asconfidencethererosesixpercentagepoints.Malaysia(89)logged
thebiggestdecline,asconfidencetherefell10pointsfromtheprevious
quarter.
TheNielsenconsumerconfidenceindexmeasuresperceptionsoflocal
jobprospects,personalfinancesandimmediatespendingintentions.
Consumerconfidencelevelsaboveandbelowabaselineof100indicate
degreesofoptimismandpessimism,respectively.TheNielsenGlobal
SurveyofConsumerConfidenceandSpendingIntentions,established
in2005,measuresconsumerconfidence,majorconcernsandspending
intentionsamongmorethan30,000respondentswithInternetaccessin
60countries.
4 QUARTER 4 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
60 COUNTRIES – 3-MONTH TRENDQ4-2014 NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
*SurveyisbasedonrespondentswithInternetaccess.Chinasurveyresultsreflectamixedmethodology.Indexlevelsaboveandbelow100indicatedegreesofoptimism/pessimism.
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q42014
-5+5
+2-2
-40
-2
+4
-1
-1
-3
-1
-2
+4
-3
+1
-3
-6
-4
+1
-4
-3+6
+5+2
-10+2+1-7-3-4-5+4
-4+3
0-8
+4
-2
-5
-1
-4
-1
-2
0
-1
-2
-3
-2
-2
+2
-2
-3-5
+1
-5
85 ISRAEL
87 LITHU
ANIA
88 SO
UTH AFRICA
89 M
ALAYSIA 89 N
ETHERLANDS
90 EGYPT
SERBIA 52
90 IRELAND
UKRAINE 52
92 NORWAY
GREECE 53
HUNGARY 54
93 AUSTRALIA
PORTUGAL 55
94 UNITED KINGDOM
SLOVENIA
56
94 COLOMBIA
FRANCE 57
95 BRAZIL
FINLAND 61
97 SWITZERLAND
SPAIN 63
98 GERMANY
ARGENTINA 67
100 SINGAPORE
VENEZUELA 70 101 PERUSLOVAKIA 70 101 PAKISTAN
POLAND 72
101 NEW ZEALAND
JAPAN 73
102 SAUDI ARABIA
BULGARIA 75
102 CANADA
BELGIUM 76
103 DENMARK
TAIWAN 77
106 VIETNAM
ROMANIA 77
106 UNITED STATES
RUSSIA 79
107 HONG KONG
CZECH REPUBLIC 8
0
107 C
HINA
LATV
IA
81
111
THAILA
ND
CHILE
81
114
UNITED A
RAB EM
IRATE
S
TURK
EY
82
120
PHIL
IPPI
NES
ESTO
NIA
8
4
120
IN
DON
ESIA
SWED
EN
85
AUST
RIA
85
MEX
ICO
8
5
0
CROATIA
49
+3
129
IN
DIA
IND
EX
COU
NTR
Y
LESS
CONFIDENT
MORE CONFIDENT
-4
SOUTH
KOREA
48
-2
ITALY45
NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA EUROPE AFRICA, MIDDLE EAST ASIA-PACIFIC
96 ( -2 change from Q3-2014 )
GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY – 60 Countries – 3-Month TrendQ4-2014 Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index
Index levels above and below 100 indicate degrees of optimism/pessimism.
INDEXES ABOVE 100 INDICATE OPTIMISM
GLOBALAVERAGE
5Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company
60 COUNTRIES – 3-MONTH TRENDQ4-2014 NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
5
YEAR-OVER-YEAR PERFORMANCE IS POSITIVEProgressisslow,butitisindeedtakingplaceinmorethanhalfofglobalmarketsmeasured.Confidencescoresin39of60marketsimprovedyearoveryear.Elevenmarketsreporteddouble-digitconfidenceclimbs,includingtheU.S.andtheU.K.,whichrose12and10points,respectively.OthernotableincreasesfromthepreviousyearincludeRomania(+15),India(+14),Egypt(+14)Ireland(+13)andBulgaria(+13).
Whileallglobalconsumerconfidenceindicatorsdeclinedinthefourthquarter—jobprospects(-3percentagepoints),personalfinances(-1pp)andimmediatespendingintentions(-1pp)—year-over-yearperformancewaspositive.Justunderhalfofglobalrespondents(49%)believedthejobmarketwouldbegoodorexcellentinthenext12months,upfrom47%infourth-quarter2013.Likewise,perceptionsofpersonalfinancesslightlyimprovedto56%(from55%thepreviousyear)andimmediatespendingintentionsroseto40%(from38%).
Year-over-yearkeyindicatorperformancemetricsimprovedmostdramaticallyinNorthAmerica.Jobprospectexpectationsrose12percentagepointsto50%,thestateofpersonalfinancesincreasedsixpercentagepointsto64%andimmediatespendingintentionsjumpedeightpercentagepointsto51%inthe12-monthperiod.SignificantimprovementswerealsoreportedintheMiddleEast/Africaregion:Jobprospectsincreasedfourpercentagepoints,personalfinancesrosesevenpointsandimmediatespendingintentionsjumpedeightpoints,comparedtofourth-quarter2013.
LatinAmericawastheonlyregiontoreportdecliningyear-over-yearperformanceforallthreemetrics.Jobprospectexpectationsdeclined12percentagepointsto31%,thestateofpersonalfinancesdroppedthreepercentagepointsto58%andimmediatespendingintentionsdeclinedtwopercentagepointsto35%,fromfourth-quarter2013.
“Therewasasmallstepbackinthefourthquarterreflectingsomeincreasedconsumerapprehension,followingimprovementsacrossthewholeof2014,”saidKeely.“Someregionsoftheworldarestillnotoutofthewoods,includingtheeurozone,whileothers—likeChinaandsomeLatinAmericancountries—maybeenteringaperiodofslowergrowthin2015.”
6 QUARTER 4 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q42014
COUNTRIES WITH BIGGEST YEAR-ON-YEAR CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX INCREASES
CONFIDENCE INDICATORS IMPROVE MOST IN NORTH AMERICA
Q4 2014
ChangefromQ4 2013
ROMANIA 77 +15
EGYPT 90 +14
INDIA 129 +14
BULGARIA 75 +13
IRELAND 90 +13
NETHERLANDS 89 +12
UNITED STATES 106 +12
SLOVENIA 56 +12
PORTUGAL 55 +11
ESTONIA 84 +11
UNITED KINGDOM
94 +10
LATIN AMERICA
Change fromQ4 2013Q4 2014
ASIA-PACIFIC
64%62%
42%
+2N/C
+1
EUROPE28%
38%30%
MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA
43%60%
39%
31%
35%
NORTH AMERICA
50%
51%
PERCENT SAYING THE NEXT 12 MONTHS WILL BE GOOD/EXCELLENT
+3+1+2
+4+7+8
58%-12-3-2
64%
JOB PROSPECTS
PERSONAL FINANCES
IMMEDIATE SPENDING INTENTIONS
+12
+6
+8
7Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company
RECESSIONARY SENTIMENT IMPROVED FOR MOST IN 2014Justoverhalfofglobalrespondents(53%)believedtheywereina
recessioninthefourthquarter,aone-percentagepointimprovementfrom
thepreviousquarterandafour-pointimprovementfromthepreviousyear
(Q42013).Regionally,arecessionarysentimentimprovedmostinNorth
America,declining10percentagepointsfromthepreviousquarterand15
percentagepointsfromthepreviousyearto53%.
Asia-Pacificrespondentsshowedthelowestrecessionarysentimentat
41%,aone-pointdeclinefromthepreviousquarterandathree-point
declinefromthepreviousyear.LatinAmericanrespondentsreportedthe
highestrecessionarysentimentat73%,anincreaseofthreepercentage
pointsfromthepreviousquarterandariseof12pointsfromtheprevious
year.Additionally,two-thirdsofEuropean(66%)andMiddleEast/Africa
(69%)respondentsstillbelievedtheywereinrecession.
Intotal,58%ofglobalmarketsmeasuredreportedayear-over-year
recessionary-sentimentimprovement.Irelandreportedthebiggest
21-percentagepointimprovementfrom87%infourth-quarter2013to
66%infourth-quarter2014.Othernotableyear-over-year,double-digit
improvementswereintheU.S.andtheU.K.(16pp),andIndiaimproved
by15percentagepoints.Conversely,arecessionarysentimentworsenedin
Brazilby22percentagepoints,from51%infourth-quarter2013to73%in
fourth-quarter2014andinChileby45percentagepoints.
China(22%),Norway(25%)andSingapore(27%)hadthelowest
recessionarysentiment,whilemorethan90%ofrespondentsinCroatia
(97%),Italy(96%),Ukraine(94%),Venezuela(92%)andSerbia(91%)
stillbelievedtheyweremiredinrecessioninthefourthquarter.
Globaldiscretionaryspending/savingintentionswereeitherflator
declinedslightlyinthefourthquarter.Almosthalf(48%)plantosavetheir
sparecash,aboutthree-in-10expecttospendonholiday/vacations(34%),
newclothes(34%)andout-of-homeentertainment(30%).One-fourthof
globalrespondentsplantobuynewtechnology(24%)andpayoffdebts
(25%).One-fifthexpecttospendonhomeimprovements(21%)and
investinstocks(21%),andone-in-10plantosaveforretirement(10%).
Globally,13%ofrespondentssaytheyhavenosparecash.
8 QUARTER 4 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
RECESSIONARY SENTIMENT IMPROVES FOR MANY
BIGGEST YEAR-ON-YEAR RECESSIONARY SENTIMENT IMPROVEMENTS
PERCENT BELIEVING THEY ARE IN RECESSION AND CHANGE FROM LAST YEAR
IRELAND
VIETNAM
CZECH REPUBLIC
UNITED STATES
UNITED KINGDOM
LATVIA
NETHERLANDS
SLOVAKIA
POLAND
NEW ZEALAND
ROMANIA
66% -21
-19
-18
-16
-16
-15
-15
-14
-13
-13
-12
-11
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q42014
NORTH AMERICA
MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA
EUROPE
ASIA-PACIFIC
LATIN AMERICA
53%
69%
66%
41%
73%
NORTH AMERICA IMPROVED MOST, LATIN AMERICA WORSENED
-15
-6
-4
-3
+12
Change fromQ4 2013Q4 2014
58%
50%
55%
55%
55%
47%
48%
67%
65%
34%
64%
INDIA
9Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company
BIGGEST YEAR-ON-YEAR RECESSIONARY SENTIMENT IMPROVEMENTS
PERCENT BELIEVING THEY ARE IN RECESSION AND CHANGE FROM LAST YEAR
NORTH AMERICAN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IS STILL STRONG U.S.consumerconfidencedecreasedtwoindexpointsinthefourth
quartertoascoreof106—thefirstdeclinein2014,buta12-point
improvementfromthepreviousyear.Confidencealsodeclinedin
Canada,fallingonepointtoanindexlevelof102fromtheprevious
quarter.
WhileallU.S.consumerconfidenceindicatorsdecreasedslightlyinthe
fourthquarter,thereweresignificantyear-over-yearimprovements:Job
prospectconfidenceincreased13percentagepointsto50%,personal
financeconfidenceincreasedsixpercentagepointsto64%andthe
percentageofrespondentswhobelievenowisagoodtimetospend
increasedninepercentagepointsto52%,fromfourth-quarter2013.
“DespitethemostrecentdeclinesintheU.S.forjobprospectsand
personalfinances,consumersappeartobemoreupbeatthanother
regionsgoinginto2015,”saidKeely.“Decliningunemployment,falling
oilpricesandthecontinuedlowinterestratestogetherplaceconsumers
intheworld’slargesteconomyinabetterpositiontospendthanin
recentyears.”
Intheregion,quarter-on-quarterdiscretionaryspendingintentions
decreasedfivepercentagepointsforbuyingnewclothes(27%)andfour
percentagepointsforspendingonout-of-homeentertainment(18%).
Thoseplanningtosaveforretirementalsodeclinedsixpercentage
pointsto13%.Four-in-10respondents(40%)plantoputmoneyinto
savingsaccounts,downfrom42%thepreviousquarter.
10 QUARTER 4 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
PERCENT SAYING THE NEXT 12 MONTHS WILL BE GOOD/EXCELLENT
U.S. REPORTS STRONG YEAR-ON-YEAR IMPROVEMENTS FORALL CONFIDENCE INDICATORS
JOB PROSPECTS
PERSONAL FINANCES
IMMEDIATE SPENDING INTENTIONS
+13
+6
+9
+3
+4
N/C
54%
52% 43%
Q4 2014 Q4 2014CHANGE
FROM Q4 2013
CHANGE FROM
Q4 2013
CANADAUNITED STATES
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q42014
50%
64% 62%
11Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company
PERCENT SAYING THE NEXT 12 MONTHS WILL BE GOOD/EXCELLENT
U.S. REPORTS STRONG YEAR-ON-YEAR IMPROVEMENTS FORALL CONFIDENCE INDICATORS
PROGRESS IN EUROPE REMAINS SLOW Cloudsofpessimismreturnedtotheeurozoneinthefourthquarter,
withconfidencedecliningin20of32markets.OnlyDenmark,with
aconsumerconfidencescoreof103,hadanoptimisticreading,and
GermanyandSwitzerlandweretheonlytwocountrieswherehalfof
respondents(49%and56%,respectively)wereoptimisticaboutjob
prospectsinthenext12months.
ConfidenceinGermany,thebiggesteconomyintheregion,increased
oneindexpointtoascoreof98—acontinuationofsmallupticksthat
haveoccurredoverthepastseveralquarterstoanear-baselinescore,
whichstandsinstarkcontrasttotheregion’saverageindexscoreof76.
“Lookingbackoverthelast12months,thestableGermanlabormarket
likelyhadabiginfluenceonthecountry’sconsumerconfidencescore,”
saidIngoSchier,managingdirector,NielsenGermany.“Acombination
offactorsinGermanyboostedconfidenceinEurope’slargesteconomy
in2014.Asteadilydecliningunemploymentratecombinedwithlow
interestratesandrisingincomesliftedconsumersentimentand
willingnesstospend.Inthelongrun,whilethegeopoliticalcrisesin
theUkraineorSyriaaretopofmind,theyarenotyetaffectingGerman
consumerconfidence.”
Thebiggestregionalindexincreasecomparedtothethirdquartercame
fromIreland(+6to90).Conversely,Russia’sindexdeclinedeightpoints
toascoreof79afterthreeconsecutivequartersofincreases.Italy(45)
andFrance(57)alsodeclined,droppingtwopointseach,comparedto
thethirdquarter.
“InIreland,2014hasbeenayearofrecovery,”saidMattClark,
commercialdirector,NielsenIreland.“InNovember,unemployment
figuresfellforthe36thconsecutivemonthandlatestannualized
GDPgrowthisahealthy3.5%,whichisout-performingtherestofthe
eurozone.Whilefast-movingconsumergoodssalesarestillsluggish,
thesepositiveindicatorstogetherwithanOctoberbudgetthatputa
littlemoremoneyinpeople’spocketshasliftedconfidenceandeaseda
strongcultureofsaving.”
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q42014
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX DECREASES IN 63% OF EUROPEAN MARKETS IN Q4
Denmark
Germany
Switzerland
UnitedKingdom
Norway
Ireland
Netherlands
Lithuania
Israel
Austria
Sweden
Estonia
Turkey
Latvia
CzechRepublic
Russia
Romania
Belgium
Bulgaria
Poland
Slovakia
Spain
Finland
France
Slovenia
Portugal
Hungary
Greece
Ukraine
Serbia
Croatia
Italy
INDEXQ4 2014
CHANGE FROMQ3 2014
INCREASE
DECREASENO CHANGE
-1
+1
-3
+1
-3
+6
+2
+1
-7
-4
-5
+4
-5
+3
0
-8
+4
-5
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-2
-2
+2
-2
-3
-5
+1
0
-2
103 |
98 |
97 |
94 |
92 |
90 |
89 |
87 |
85 |
85 |
85 |
84 |
82 |
81 |
80 |
79 |
77 |
76 |
75 |
72 |
70 |
63 |
61 |
57 |
56 |
55 |
54 |
53 |
52 |
52 |
49 |
45 |
12 QUARTER 4 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
“InRussia,theeconomicandpoliticaltensionshadafairlylimited
impactpriortoNovemberandDecember,butthesituationdramatically
changedwiththenationalcurrencyconsiderablylosingitsvalueand
inflationreachingnewheights,”saidKyriakosKyriakou,managing
director,NielsenEasternEurope.“Purchasingpoweranddisposable
incomeofRussianconsumerswillcontinuetoshrink,andweexpectthe
situationtoworseninthefirsthalfof2015whenpricesforconsumer
goodswillgrowreflectingtherubledevaluation.Priceasapurchase
motivatorwillbecomestrongerasconsumersswitchtocheaperbrands
andcutdownonnon-essentials.”
13Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company
CONFIDENCE IN ASIA-PACIFIC IS STILL HIGH DESPITE RECENT DECLINESConsumerconfidenceinAsia-Pacificincreasedinonlythreeof14marketsmeasuredinthefourthquarter,butnineof14countriesremainatorabovethe100-optimismbaseline.ConfidenceinIndia(129)increasedthreepoints,postingthehighestindexintheregionandofthe60countriesmeasured.China’sindexfellfourpointsto107inthefourthquarter,whichcomesafterfourconsecutivequartersat111.
“Despitethefour-pointdecline,Chineseconsumersremainoptimisticabouttheirjobprospects,personalfinancesandtheirdesiretospendinthecomingyearrelativetotheirglobalpeers,”saidYanXuan,president,NielsenChina.“ThankstotheconcentrationofanumberofshoppingholidaysinthefourthquartersuchasSingles’Day,ChristmasandNewYear,consumerpurchaseintentionsforbothonlineandofflineregisteredstrongreadings,especiallyinhighertiercities,provingagainthatonlineshoppingfestivalscreatednewvitalityintheretailmarket,notonlyforonlinemerchants,butforofflinechannelsaswell,”YanXuanadded.
Malaysiareportedthemostdramaticconsumerconfidencedeclineintheregion,falling10pointsto89—thelowestscoresince2009.ConfidencealsodeclinedfivepointsinIndonesia(120)andfourpointseachinAustralia(93),Japan(73)andSouthKorea(48).
“InIndia,2014endedwiththeencouragingnoteofincreasedconsumerconfidencelevelsacrossallkeyindicators,”saidPiyushMathur,president,NielsenIndiaRegion.“Thetrendsinthefinancesectoralsoreflectthisuptickinconfidence,withcreditcardpenetrationrising,homeloandisbursementhigherthaninthethirdquarter,andimprovedautosales.Theoverallfast-movingconsumergoodsindustryislookingtogrowbydoubledigitsin2015basedonlowerinflationratesandincreasedconsumersentiment.Consumersarealsohopefulforanimprovedeconomicenvironmentwithpoliciesandreformsbeingsetinplacebythenewgovernment.”
“InMalaysia,thedeclineinconfidencewasexpected,buttheseveritywasmorethananticipated,”saidRichardHall,countrymanager,NielsenMalaysia.“ItappearsthatconsumersareturningtheirattentiontothegoodsandservicetaxintroductiondueforimplementationinApril2015anditspotentialimpactonpricesandcostofliving.Thisiscontributingtouncertaintyinamarketwhereconsumergoodsalesareflatandsomeretailersarestatingnegativelike-for-likegrowthsinstores.”
India
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
China
HongKong
Vietnam
NewZealand
Singapore
Australia
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
129
120
120
111
107
107
106
101
100
93
89
77
73
48
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX DECREASES IN 71% OF ASIA-PACIFIC MARKETS IN Q4
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q42014
INCREASE
DECREASENO CHANGE
INCREASE
DECREASENO CHANGE
INCREASE
DECREASENO CHANGE
3
-5
5
-2
-4
0
4
-1
-3
-4
-10
-2
-4
-4
INDEXQ4 2014
CHANGE FROMQ3 2014
14 QUARTER 4 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
LATIN AMERICAN CONFIDENCE CONTINUES A DOWNWARD TRENDConfidenceintheLatinAmericaregiondecreasedthreeindexpoints
toascoreof88inthefourthquarter,asscoresfellinfiveoftheseven
countriesmeasured.Peruwastheonlycountryintheregionwithan
improvedscore,risingfourpointsto101—thehighestscoreintheregion
andoutperformingBrazil(95)forthefirsttimesince2011.Confidencein
Brazildroppedsixpointsquarterly—thebiggestdeclineandlowestscore
forthecountrysince2011.Mexico(85)decreasedthreepoints,Colombia
(94)andChile(81)decreasedfourpointseachandArgentina(67)dropped
onepointinthefourthquarter.Venezuela’s(70)scorewasflatfromthe
previousquarter.
TheoutlookforjobprospectsdeclinedinthreeofsevenLatinAmerican
countriesandperceptionsofpersonalfinancesfellineverycountryexcept
Peru.Arecessionarysentimentworsenedbysevenpercentagepointsin
bothBrazil(73%)andChile(59%)—thehighestlevelssincethestartof
trackingthissentimentin2008.
“Brazil’sconfidencescoreisareflectionofhighlevelsofuncertainty
abouttheeconomicenvironment,”saidLuisArjona,clusterleader,
NielsenBrazil.“Inadditiontotheexpectedlowgrowthlevelsin2015,
inflationhasremainedabovetheofficialtargets,andtherearegrowing
concernsaboutincreasingunemploymentrates.Ontheotherhand,a
newly-appointedeconomicteamhasrecentlytakenmeasurestorestore
confidencebyincreasinginterestratestosubdueinflationandpromising
torestoregreaterfiscaldiscipline.ReportsofcorruptionatPetrobras,the
largestBraziliancompany,andthesteepdropinoilprices,havelikely
furthercontributedtomarketuncertaintyandoverallconsumersentiment.
Relativelylowconsumerconfidencescoresshouldremaininthenear
futureuntiltheregionembarksonaclearpathtoeconomicrecovery.”
Discretionaryspendingintentionsshowedthemostdramaticpullbackof
alltheregions,withdecreasesoffivepercentagepointsfornewclothes
(24%)andhomeimprovements(15%),fourpointsfornewtechnology
(16%),threepointsforsaving(28%)andtwopointsforout-of-home
entertainment(30%).Almostone-in-fiverespondents(18%)saidtheyhave
nosparecash,aquarterlyincreaseoftwopercentagepoints.
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX DECREASES IN 71% OF LATIN-AMERICAN MARKETS IN Q4
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q42014
PERU
ARGENTINA
VENEZUELA
101
70
67
4
0
-1
COLOMBIA
94-4
CHILE
81-4
BRAZIL
95-6
MEXICO
85-3
INDEXQ4 2014
CHANGE FROM Q3 2014
INCREASE DECREASE NO CHANGE
15Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company
INDEXQ4 2014
CHANGE FROM Q3 2014
THE MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA REGION SHOWS SLOW BUT STABLE PROGRESSConsumerconfidenceincreasedinthreeoffivecountriesmeasured
intheMiddleEast/Africaregioninthefourthquarter.At114,United
ArabEmirateshadthehighestindexintheregion,anincreaseoftwo
pointsfromthethirdquarter.Confidencealsoincreasedfivepointsin
Egyptto90andtwopointsinSouthAfricato88.Conversely,confidence
decreasedthreepointsinSaudiArabiato102andtwopointsinPakistan
to101.
“Egypt’sconsumerconfidencescorehasbeenclimbingforthelasttwo
quarters,andweseeadirectcorrelationtothecountry’seconomic
growthduringthatsameperiod,”saidTamerElAraby,managingdirector
forEgypt,LevantandNorthAfrica.“AsEgyptapproachestheconfidence
baselinescoreof100,thenextchallengewillbetoimprovehowpeople
perceivetheirpersonalfinances.Thiscouldleadtoapointwhen
Egyptianconsumersnolongerfocusonimmediatelivingrequirements,
butratherlookforwardtopotentialfuturegrowth.”
Regionally,quarter-on-quarterdiscretionaryspendingintentionsinthe
fourthquarterincreasedfourpercentagepointseachfornewclothes
(27%)andout-of-homeentertainment(23%),twopercentagepoints
eachforpayingoffdebts(20%)andhomeimprovements(17%)and
onepercentagepointforretirement(6%).Twenty-twopercentofMiddle
East/Africarespondentssaidtheyhavenosparecash,whichwasflat
fromthepreviousquarterandthehighestpercentageofanyregion.
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IN UAE REMAINS STRONG IN Q4
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q42014
2
-3
-2
2
5
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
SAUDI ARABIA
PAKISTAN
SOUTH AFRICA
EGYPT
114
102
101
88
90
INCREASE DECREASE NO CHANGE
16 QUARTER 4 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
CONFIDENCE RISES IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAConsumerconfidenceincreasedfourindexpointsinNigeriainthe
fourthquartertoascoreof127—thehighestscoreofthethreecountries
measuredinNielsen’smobilesurveyforsub-SaharanAfrica.Confidence
alsoincreasedeightpointsinKenya(113)andfivepointsinGhana(102)
fromthethirdquarter.
ThethreecountrieswereaddedtoNielsen’smeasurementof
consumerconfidenceinthefirstquarterof2014usingamobilesurvey
methodology,whichdiffersfromtheonlinemethodologyusedtoreport
consumerconfidenceandspendingintentionsfortheother60countries
outlinedinthisreport.Assuch,thethreesub-SaharanAfricanmarkets
arenotincludedintheglobalorMiddleEast/Africaaveragesdiscussed
throughoutthisreport.
Theperceivedoutlookforjobprospectsincreased12percentagepoints
inKenya(62%),sixpercentagepointsinNigeria(64%)andremained
flatinGhana(42%).Eighty-twopercentofNigerianrespondents
wereconfidentabouttheirpersonalfinances,butjustoverhalf(56%)
believednowwasagoodtimetospend.InKenya,69%ofrespondents
believedmoneymattersweregoodorexcellent,and41%wereconfident
intheircurrentspendingcapacity—anincreaseoffivepercentagepoints
fromthethirdquarter.Likewise,66%ofrespondentsinGhanawere
optimisticabouttheirfinances,and36%wereconfidentaboutspending.
Themajorityofrespondentsinthethreecountries(70%inGhana,
61%inNigeriaand59%inKenya)didnothavesparecash,alevelthat
decreasedinKenyaandNigeriafromthethirdquarter.Amongthose
whodidhavediscretionaryfunds,savingwasapriorityfor89%in
Kenya,86%inNigeria,and85%inGhana,followedbyspendingon
homeimprovementprojects(73%inKenya,73%inNigeriaand71%
inGhana).
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA IN 2014
17Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA IN 2014
Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q42014Sub-SaharanAfricacountriesuseamobilemethodolgy
GHANA
KENYA
NIGERIA
97
110
120
103
111
121
97
105
123
102
113
127
18 QUARTER 4 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
Source:InternetWorldStats,December31,2013
MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION
Australia 87%
China 46%
HongKong 75%
India 16%
Indonesia 22%
Japan 86%
Malaysia 67%
NewZealand 87%
Philippines 41%
Singapore 73%
South Korea 85%
Taiwan 80%
Thailand 30%
Vietnam 44%
MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION MARKET INTERNET
PENETRATION
MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION
Austria 81%
Belgium 82%
Bulgaria 53%
Croatia 71%
CzechRepublic 74%
Denmark 95%
Estonia 80%
MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION
Egypt 50%
Pakistan 15%
SaudiArabia 61%
SouthAfrica 49%
UnitedArabEmirates
88%
MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION
Canada 91%
UnitedStates 84%
MARKET MOBILE PENETRATION*
Ghana 99%
Kenya 68%
Nigeria 64%
COUNTRIES IN THE STUDY
ASIA-PACIFIC
EUROPE
MIDDLE EAST / AFRICA
NORTH AMERICA
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
LATIN AMERICAEUROPE
Finland 92%
France 83%
Germany 86%
Greece 60%
Hungary 73%
Ireland 78%
Israel 71%
Italy 59%
Latvia 75%
Lithuania 69%
Netherlands 94%
Norway 95%
Poland 65%
Portugal 62%
Romania 50%
Russia 61%
Serbia 57%
Slovakia 79%
Slovenia 73%
Spain 75%
Sweden 95%
Switzerland 87%
Turkey 46%
UnitedKingdom 90%
Ukraine 42%
Argentina 75%
Brazil 54%
Chile 67%
Colombia 62%
Mexico 44%
Peru 39%
Venezuela 45%
*BasedonmobilehandsetsdividedbypopulationSource:CIAWorldFactbook,2012
19Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company
ABOUT NIELSEN NielsenN.V.(NYSE:NLSN)isaglobalinformationandmeasurement
companywithleadingmarketpositionsinmarketingandconsumer
information,televisionandothermediameasurement,online
intelligenceandmobilemeasurement.Nielsenhasapresencein
approximately100countries,withheadquartersinNewYork,USA
andDiemen,theNetherlands.
Formoreinformation,visitwww.nielsen.com.
Copyright©2015TheNielsenCompany.Allrightsreserved.Nielsenand
theNielsenlogoaretrademarksorregisteredtrademarksofCZT/ACN
Trademarks,L.L.C.Otherproductandservicenamesaretrademarksor
registeredtrademarksoftheirrespectivecompanies.15/8379
ABOUT THE NIELSEN GLOBAL SURVEY TheNielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidenceandSpending
IntentionswasconductedNov.10-28,2014andpolledmorethan
30,000onlineconsumersin60countriesthroughoutAsia-Pacific,
Europe,LatinAmerica,theMiddleEast/AfricaandNorthAmerica.
Thesamplehasquotasbasedonageandsexforeachcountrybased
onitsInternetusersandisweightedtoberepresentativeofInternet
consumers.Ithasamarginoferrorof±0.6%.ThisNielsensurveyis
basedonlyonthebehaviorofrespondentswithonlineaccess.Internet
penetrationratesvarybycountry.Nielsenusesaminimumreporting
standardof60%Internetpenetrationoranonlinepopulationof10
millionforsurveyinclusion.TheChinaConsumerConfidenceIndex
iscompiledfromaseparatemixedmethodologysurveyamong3,500
respondentsinChina.Thesub-SaharanAfricancountriesinthisstudy
arecompiledfromaseparatemobilemethodologysurveyamong1,600
respondentsinGhana,KenyaandNigeria.TheNielsenGlobalSurvey,
whichincludestheGlobalConsumerConfidenceIndex,wasestablished
in2005.
20 QUARTER 4 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT