CONSUMER CONFIDENCE - Nielsen · • The U.S. posted the biggest quarterly consumer confidence...

1Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company

CONSUMER CONFIDENCEConCerns and spending intentions around the World

Quarter 3, 2015

2015 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SERIES | 3RD EDITION

2 Quarter 3 2015 - GLOBaL COnsumer COnfidenCe repOrt

• TheU.S.postedthebiggestquarterlyconsumerconfidenceincreaseof18points,reachinganindexscoreof119—thecountry’shighestlevelinNielsen’s10-yearconsumerconfidencehistory.

• Confidencelevelsroseintwo-thirdsofEuropeancountries,andtheU.K.exceededtheoptimismbaselinescoreof100forthefirsttimesince2006.

• Consumerconfidencedeclinedineight-of-14Asia-Pacificmarkets,withthesteepestdeclinesinTaiwan,MalaysiaandHongKong.

• LatinAmericanconfidencecontinuedadownwardtrend,droppingtoaregionalscoreof81—thelowestlevelonrecordfortheregion.

• MiddleEast/Africaconfidencedeclinedinthree-of-fivecountriesmeasured.Moroccomadeitsdebutinthissurvey.

• Globally,discretionaryspendingintentionsincreaseddespiteapervasiverecessionarymindsetamongmorethanhalf(56%)ofthosesurveyedaroundtheworld.

AROUND thE wORlD

2

thE U.S. lED All MARkEtS wIth A thIRD-qUARtER SURgE IN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

Globalconsumerconfidenceincreasedthreeindexpointsinthethird

quarterto99,thehighestlevelsince2006.Optimisticsentimentfor

jobprospects,personalfinancesandspendingintentionsincreasedin

nearlyhalf(48%)ofallmeasuredmarkets,butunevengrowthcontinues

aroundtheworldasconfidencestabilizesorgrowsinmanyadvanced

economiesanddeclinesinmanyemergingmarkets.

3Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company 3

ABOUT THE GLOBAL SURVEY METHODOLOGY

Thefindingsinthissurvey

arebasedonrespondents

withonlineaccessin61

countries(unlessotherwise

noted).Whileanonline

surveymethodologyallowsfor

tremendousscaleandglobal

reach,itprovidesaperspective

onlyonthehabitsofexisting

Internetusers,nottotal

populations.Indeveloping

marketswhereonline

penetrationisstillgrowing,

audiencesmaybeyoungerand

moreaffluentthanthegeneral

populationofthatcountry.In

addition,surveyresponsesare

basedonclaimedbehavior

ratherthanactualmetered

data.Culturaldifferencesin

reportingsentimentarelikely

factorsinthemeasurement

ofeconomicoutlookacross

countries.Thereportedresults

donotattempttocontrolor

correctforthesedifferences,

therefore,cautionshouldbe

exercisedwhencomparing

acrosscountriesandregions,

particularlyacrossregional

boundaries.

Regionally,confidenceincreasedsignificantlyinNorthAmerica(U.S.and

Canada)witha16-pointindexsurge,reachingascoreof117—theregion’s

highestlevelinNielsen’s10-yearconsumerconfidencehistory.Confidence

inEuropecontinuedonanupwardtrajectoryforthethirdconsecutive

quarter,as21of32countriespostedindexincreases,resultinginaregional

scoreof81—thehighestlevelsince2008.Conversely,confidenceinthe

Asia-Pacificregiondeclinedoneindexpointto106,andfelltwopointsin

LatinAmerica(81),thelowestscoreonrecordfortheregion.Consumer

confidenceheldsteadyintheMiddleEast/Africaregion1withascoreof94.

Amongtheworld’slargesteconomies,confidenceincreased18points

intheU.S.(119)—thehighestscoreforthecountryinNielsen’s10-year

consumerconfidencehistory.Confidencealsoincreasedfourpointsinthe

U.K.(103)andthreepointsinGermany(100)fromthesecondquarter.

Conversely,confidencedeclinedonepointinChina(106)andthreepoints

inJapan(80).

“Globally,thiscontinuestobeaperiodofeconomicuncertaintyandthus

mixedconfidencetrends,”saidLouiseKeely,seniorvicepresident,Nielsen,

andpresident,TheDemandInstitute.“Despitesomemixedeconomic

signalsfromtheU.S.,consumerconfidencehasstrengthenedand

consumerspendingisdrivingtheeconomy.InEurope,confidenceismore

mixedduetovariationincountry-specificeconomicconditions;stronger

confidenceinItaly,Spain,andtheU.K.reflectsimprovingjobmarkets,

whileRussia’sconfidencehasplummetedinthewakeofaneconomic

downturn.LatinAmericanconfidencealsoismixed,butBrazil’scontinued

confidencedeclineloomslargeasBrazilisthelargesteconomyinthe

region.”

Inthelatestonlinesurvey,conductedAug.10–Sept.4,2015,consumer

confidenceincreasedin29of60marketsmeasuredbyNielsen(48%).

India’sscoreof131wasthehighestlevelamong612markets,followedby

theU.S.(119),thePhilippines(117)andIndonesia(116).TheU.S.showed

thebiggestquarterlyimprovementof18points,andTaiwanshowedthe

biggestquarterlydeclineof12pointsfromthesecondquarter.SouthKorea

reportedthelowestscoreof49,anincreaseoffourpointsfromthesecond

quarter.

TheNielsenconsumerconfidenceindexmeasuresperceptionsoflocal

jobprospects,personalfinancesandimmediatespendingintentions.

Consumerconfidencelevelsaboveandbelowabaselineof100indicate

degreesofoptimismandpessimism,respectively.TheNielsenGlobal

SurveyofConsumerConfidenceandSpendingIntentions,established

in2005,measuresconsumerconfidence,majorconcernsandspending

intentionsamongmorethan30,000respondentswithInternetaccessin61

countries.

1MoroccowasaddedtotheGlobalSurveyinthethird-quarterof2015,andthecountry’sindexisreflectedintheMiddleEast/Africaregionalaverage.2MoroccowasaddedtotheGlobalSurveyinthethird-quarterof2015.


GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

61 Countries – 3-Month trendQ3-2015 nielsen ConsuMer ConfidenCe index*

*SurveyisbasedonrespondentswithInternetaccess.Chinasurveyresultsreflectamixedmethodology.Indexlevelsaboveandbelow100indicatedegreesofoptimism/pessimism.**MoroccoisanewmarketinQ32015.

+18-5

-40

-3+4

-1

-1

+1

+4

+2

-1

+3

-6

-1

+7

-2

0

+7

-5

+2

+4+5

+5-3

+5-1

-1+1+2+6+1

-5+6

+10-2

-3

-2

-5

-11

-3

+4

+3

-4

-5

-12

+9

0

+4

+5

-4

+6-2

-3

86 AU

STRIA 87 SW

EDEN

87 N

ORW

AY 88

LITHUAN

IA

90 COLO

MBIA

90 EGYPT

SERBIA 58

93 IRELAND

VENEZUELA 60

93 AUSTRALIA

HUNGARY 61

FINLAND 62

94 ISRAEL

CROATIA 64

94 NEW ZEALAND

SLOVENIA

65

95 CZECH REPUBLIC

FRANCE 66

95 PERU

PORTUGAL 66

96 SWITZERLAND

TAIWAN 72

97 NETHERLANDS

LATVIA 74

97 CANADARUSSIA 74 99 HONG KONG

SPAIN 75

100 GERMANY

BULGARIA 77

101 PAKISTAN

ARGENTINA 78

101 SINGAPORE

MALAYSIA 78

103 UNITED KINGDOM

CHILE 79

105 VIETNAM

BRAZIL 79

106 CHINA

JAPAN 80

107 UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

ESTONIA

80

109 SAUDI A

RABIA

POLAND

80

109

DENMARK

SLOVAKIA

81

111

THAILA

ND

SOUTH

AFR

ICA

82

116

INDO

NESIA

TURK

EY

84

117

PHIL

IPPI

NES

BELG

IUM

8

4

119

UN

ITED

STA

TES

ROM

ANIA

8

4M

ORO

CCO

**

8

5M

EXIC

O

86

+4

ITALY 57

0

131

IN

DIA

IND

EX

CO

UN

TRY

LESS

CONFID

ENT

MORE CONFIDENT

0

GREECE53

+3

UKRAINE

51

NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA EUROPE AFRICA, MIDDLE EAST ASIA-PACIFIC

99 ( +3 change from Q2-2015 )

GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY – 61 Countries – 3-Month TrendQ3-2015 Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index*

Index levels above and below 100 indicate degrees of optimism/pessimism. **Morocco is a new market in Q3 2015.

+4

SOU

TH KO

REA

INDEXES ABOVE 100 INDICATE OPTIMISM

GLOBALAVERAGE

49

+5


61 Countries – 3-Month trendQ3-2015 nielsen ConsuMer ConfidenCe index*

5

SpENDINg INtENtIONS INCREASED, bUt RECESSIONARy MINDSEt lINgEREDGlobally,immediatespendingintentionshavebeenslowlyincreasing,risingfromalowof30%in2008duringtheGreatRecessiontoahighof43%inthethirdquarterof2015.NorthAmericansshowedthebiggestsurgeinplanstoopentheirwalletswitha14-percentagepointquarterlyincreaseto58%.Mostregionsfollowed,withspendingsentimentuptwopercentagepointsinboththeMiddleEast/Africa(38%)andEurope(34%)anduponepercentagepointinLatinAmerica(33%).SpendingintentionswereflatinAsia-Pacific(47%).

Globaldiscretionarypurchaseintentionshighonthepriorityshoppinglistincludedspendingonnewclothes,holidays/vacations,out-of-homeentertainment,newtechnologyproductsandhomeimprovementprojects.Morethanhalfofglobalrespondents(52%)plannedtosavetheirsparecash,anincreasefrom48%inthesecondquarter.

Global averaGe

NEw ClOThES 38%

hOlIDayS / vaCaTIONS 38%

OUT-OF-hOME ENTERTaINMENT 34%

NEw TEChNOlOgy pRODUCTS 29%

hOME IMpROvEMENTS/DECORaTINg 26%

hoW do you plan to spend your spare Cash?


Despiteariseinspendingconfidence,however,halfofglobal

respondents(56%)stillfeltthattheircountrywasinrecessioninthe

thirdquarter,upfrom54%inthesecondquarter.Infact,recessionary

sentimentincreasedin31of60countriesfromthesecondquarter.

“Manyconsumers,acrossmatureandemergingmarkets,havethe

mindsettospendacrossarangeofconsumercategories,”saidKeely.

“Still,amajorityofconsumerscontinuetobelievetheireconomies

areinrecession,eventhoughmostnolongerare.Sharpadjustments

inrecessionarysentimentusuallyreflectactualchangesinacountry’s

economicprospects,andindicatethatconsumerswillbeeitherpulling

backonormoreinclinedtowardspending.”

RecessionarysentimentlevelswerehighestinVenezuela(98%),Ukraine

(96%)andBrazil(92%)andgrewthemostquarter-on-quarterinCanada

(up25percentagepointsto71%),Latvia(up21ppto70%),HongKong

(up17ppto56%),Malaysia(up16ppto89%)andRussia(up14pp

to79%).Conversely,recessionarysentimentimproved10percentage

pointsinboththeCzechRepublic(33%)andPoland(54%)andnine

percentagepointsinIreland(62%).


RECESSIONARY SENTIMENT:IMpROVES IN pARTS OF EUROpE, wORSENS IN pARTS OF ASIA AND

IS HIGHEST IN pARTS OF LATIN AMERICA

PerCentaGe who think their Country is in an eConoMiC reCession at the MoMentCOUNTRIES wITh ThE hIghEST lEvElS.

Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q32015

DECREASING RECESSIONARY SENTIMENT

Q3 2015

Q3 vS. Q2 percentage-

point Change

EgypT 76% -6

CzECH REpUBLIC 33% -10

pOLAND 54% -10

IRELAND 62% -9

pORTUGAL 70% -6

HUNGARY 69% -5

NETHERLANDS 52% -5

BULGARIA 74% -4

SpAIN 69% -4

aUSTRalIa 40% -4

GROwING RECESSIONARY SENTIMENT

Q3 2015

Q3 vS. Q2 percentage-

point Change

CaNaDa 71% +25

laTvIa 70% +21

RUSSIa 79% +14

NORway 53% +12

ChIlE 66% +11

HONG KONG 56% +17

MALAYSIA 89% +16

TAIwAN 88% +15

INDONESIA 73% +10

TURkEy 84% +10

HIGHEST RECESSIONARY SENTIMENT

VENEzUELA 98%

UkRaINE 96%

BRAzIL 92%

CROaTIa 91%

SOUTh kOREa 89%

MalaySIa 89%

gREECE 89%

ITaly 89%

TaIwaN 88%

SERbIa 87%

Q3 2015

EUROpE

aSIa-paCIFIClaTIN aMERICa


FEARS AbOUt tERRORISM ROSE IN EUROpE, MIDDlE EASt/AFRICA AND ASIA-pACIFICConcernsabouttheeconomyandjobsecurityinthenextsixmonthsremainedthemostpressingissuesfor30%and22%ofglobalrespondents,respectively,butconcernsaboutterrorismgrewaroundtheworld,risingsevenpercentagepointsinEurope(18%)andtwopercentagepointsinboththeMiddleEast/Africa(17%)andAsia-Pacific(7%)regions.FearsaboutterrorismdecreasedonepercentagepointinNorthAmericato13%andwereunchangedinLatinAmerica(2%)fromthesecondquarter.

Morethanone-fifthofrespondentsinTurkey,France,Egypt,SaudiArabia,Germany,theCzechRepublic,Switzerland,AustriaandtheU.K.saidterrorismwastheirbiggestorsecond-biggestconcernwithregardtothenextsixmonths.Quarter-on-quarterterrorismconcernlevelsgrewmostinTurkey(+37pp),Thailand(+11pp),U.K.(+9pp),Israel(+9pp),Slovakia(+9pp),Germany(+8pp)andCroatia(+8pp).

Regionally,concernsaboutcrimewerehighestinLatinAmerica(22%),work-lifebalanceandhealthissueswerehighestinAsia-Pacific(28%and23%,respectively),terrorismfearswerehighestinEurope(18%),debtworrieswerehighestinNorthAmerica(17%)andparents’welfareandhappinessanxietieswerehighestintheMiddleEast/Africa(17%).

biGGest and seCond-biGGest ConCerns in the next six Months


HIGHEST LEVELS OF TERRORISM CONCERNS

biGGest and seCond-biGGest ConCerns in the next six Months

TURkEy

FRaNCE

EgypT

SaUDI aRabIa

gERMaNy

CzECh REpUblIC

SwITzERlaND

aUSTRIa

U.k.

+37

+4

+6

+7

+8

+6

+7

+7

+9

58%

26%

26%

26%

23%

23%

22%

21%

21%

Q2 vS. Q3 pERCENTagE pOINT

DIFFERENCETERRORISM

Q3 2015



U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SOARED tO A 10-yEAR hIgh U.S.consumerconfidencejumped18indexpointsinthethirdquartertoascoreof119,thebiggestquarterlyincreaseandthehighestindexforthecountryinNielsen’s10-yearconsumerconfidencehistory.Allthreeconfidenceindicatorsincreasedbydouble-digitpercentagepointsfromthesecondquarter,asoptimisticperceptionsforjobprospects,personalfinancesandimmediatespendingintentionspostedthehighestlevelsonrecordforthecountrysincethesurvey’sinceptionin2005.

Six-in-10U.S.respondentsbelievedjobprospects(62%)andtheirimmediatespendingcapacity(60%)wouldbegood/excellentinthenext12months,anincreaseof12percentagepointsand16percentagepoints,respectively,fromthesecondquarter.Justunderthree-quarters(74%)wereoptimisticabouttheirpersonalfinancesintheyearahead,aquarterlyincreaseof13percentagepoints.

U.S.discretionaryspendingintentionsalsopostedrecordhighsinthethirdquarter,asplanstobuynewclothes(37%)increased14percentagepoints,spendingonholidays/vacations(37%)increased19percentagepointsandplanstospendonnewtechnology(31%)andhomeimprovementprojects(31%)increased18percentagepointsand16percentagepoints,respectively,fromthesecondquarter.Thosethatsaidtheyhadnosparecashdeclined14percentagepointstothelowestlevelforthecountry(13%)since2005.

“U.S.consumershaveplentytofeelgoodaboutasunemploymentlevelsarelower,wagesarehigherandsavingsfromlowergasolinepricesarereallocatedtootherspendingpriorities,”saidJamesRusso,seniorvicepresident,NielsenGlobalConsumerInsights.“Butwhileyear-over-yearconsumer-packagedgooddollarsalesareup2.6%yeartodatethroughSeptember,wearestillseeingspendingrestraint,asunitsalesareflat(0.2%)andall-outletshoppingtripshavebeenonadownwarddeclinesince2011.Asweheadintotheholidayspendingseason,aNielsenforecastpredictsa2%increaseindollarsales.”


ConsumerconfidenceinCanadadeclinedonepointto97fromthesecondquarter,maintaininganear-baselinescoreforthreeconsecutivequarters.Personalfinancesentimentincreasedsixpercentagepointsinthethirdquarterto60%,andimmediatespendingintentionsalsoincreased,risingtwopercentagepointsto43%.Conversely,jobprospectsentimentdeclinedfivepercentagepointsto40%fromthesecondquarter,andrecessionarysentimentjumpedfrom46%inthesecondquarterto71%inthethirdquarter—thebiggestriseof60countries.

U.S. ECONOMIC CONCERN LEVELS DECLINE; SpENDING INTENTIONS INCREASE

biGGest and seCond-biGGest ConCerns in next six Months, Quarterly averaGe

eConomiC ConCerns

disCretionary spending/saving intentions


*Economicconcernsdataisaquarterlyaverageforeachyear.

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 yTD 2015

28%33%40%41%

42%44%

48%

20%

33%

48%

19%28%

37%31% 31%37%

hOlIDayS/vaCaTIONS

NEw TEChNOlOgy

pRODUCTS

hOME IMpROvEMENTS

NEw ClOThES

OUT-OF-hOME ENTERTaINMENT

payINg DEbTSRETIREMENTSavINgSINvESTINg

+19 +18 +16 +14 +12 +11 +10 +10 +6

Q3 vS. Q2 pERCENTagE-pOINT DIFFERENCE Q3 2015


EUROpEAN CONFIDENCE ShOwED A StEADy, UphIll ClIMb ConsumerconfidencegrewthroughouttheEuropeanregioninthethirdquarter,as21of32markets(66%)showedindexscoreimprovementsfromthesecondquarter.ConfidenceinGermany,theregion’slargesteconomy,increasedthreeindexpointsto100.IntheU.K.,confidenceincreasedfortheseventhconsecutivequarter,risingfourpointsinthethirdquartertoascoreof103—thehighestscoreforthecountrysince2005,thefirstyearofthesurvey,anditsfirstabove-the-baselinescoresince2006.

“Overall,theU.K.economyisinbettershapethanmostotherEuropeancountries,astheunemploymentrateisdownandwageinflationisrisingfasterthangeneralinflation,”saidSteveSmith,marketleader,NielsenU.K.andIreland.“Shoppersarealsoseeingthebenefitoflowerfuelandenergycosts,andhouseholdsareredirectingspendingproportionatelytonon-fooditemssuchasphones,autos,andvacations.Withinfoodandgrocery,thecategorieswiththestrongestvolumegrowthcontinuetobethemoreexpandablecategoriesofbeverages,confectioneryandsnacks,whicharetypicallydrivenbypromotionsandbrandedinnovation.”“InGermany,consumershaveassessedtheirpersonalfinancialsituationmorepositively,astheongoingupbeatdevelopmentsinthelabormarketcontinue,”saidIngoSchier,managingdirector,NielsenGermany.“ThesolidupswingoftheGermaneconomyisalsoreflectedinanincreasedconsumersentimentonspending.Nevertheless,whilethemajorityofGermanconsumersareoptimisticaboutthefuture,currentevents,suchastherefugeeissue,areweighingonGermans,asconcernsaboutterrorismandimmigrationhavegrownnotablyinthethirdquarter.”Regionally,confidenceincreasedmostinPoland(80)andPortugal(66),rising10andnineindexpoints,respectively,fromthesecondquarter.Italy’sscoreof57increasedfourpointsfromthesecondquarterandFranceheldsteadywithascoreof66.Meanwhile,confidenceinallNordiccountriesinthesurveydeclinedinthethirdquarter:Finlanddecreasedfourpointsto62,Denmarkdecreasedthreepointsto109,andNorway(87)andSweden(87)decreasedonepointeachfromthesecondquarter.


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“InPoland,consumerconfidencereachedthehighestscoresince2010,asunemploymentfelltothelowestratesince2008,andarecord-hotsummerboostedtourism,”saidSzymonMordasiewicz,managingdirector,NielsenPoland.“Spendingonfast-movingconsumergoodsalsopickedup,asnominalgrowthincreased1.5%,comparedtosecondquarter2014.Private-labelproductsareperformingbetterthanbrand-nameproducts,drivenbydominanceinthediscountretailchannel.”

“Italy’sconsumerconfidenceimprovementreturnedtotheQ12015level,thehighestsince2011,”saidGiovanniFantasia,marketleader,NielsenItaly.“Wesawincreasesinboththesentimenttowardjobsandpersonalfinances.Totalfast-movingconsumergoodsvaluesalesincreased1.5%inthefirsteightmonthsof2015,drivenbyconsumptionincreasesbymoreaffluentfamiliesintheNorthernpartofthecountry.Signsofhouseholdconsumptionweakness,however,arecomingfrompoorerfamiliesinthesouthernpartofthecountry.”


CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INCREaSES IN 21 OF 32 EUROpEaN MaRkETS IN Q3

Denmark

U.K.

Germany

Netherlands

Switzerland

CzechRepublic

Israel

Ireland

Lithuania

Norway

Sweden

Austria

Turkey

Romania

Belgium

Slovakia

Estonia

Poland

Bulgaria

Spain

Latvia

Russia

France

Portugal

Slovenia

Croatia

Finland

Hungary

Serbia

Italy

Greece

Ukraine

INDExQ3 2015

ChaNgEFROM Q2 2015

INCREaSE

DECREaSENO ChaNgE

109

103

100

97

96

95

94

93

88

87

87

86

84

84

84

81

80

80

77

75

74

74

66

66

65

64

62

61

58

57

53

51

-3

+4

+3

+7

-2

+7

+2

+5

+5

-1

-1

+1

-3

+6

+1

+6

-2

+10

+4

+3

-5

-4

0

+9

+4

+5

-4

+6

+5

+4

0

+3


OvERAll CONFIDENCE IN ASIA-pACIFIC wAS DOwN; RECESSIONARy SENtIMENt wAS ON thE RISE Consumerconfidencedeclinedineightof14countriesintheAsia-Pacificregionforanoverallscoreof106,adeclineofoneindexpointfromthesecondquarter.AustraliaandSouthKoreaeachshowedthebiggestquarterlyconfidenceincreasesintheregionoffourpoints,risingtoscoresof93and49,respectively.Conversely,confidencedeclined12pointsinTaiwan(72),11pointsinMalaysia(78)andsixpointsinHongKong(99),thebiggestdeclinesreportedglobally.ConfidencealsodecreasedonepointinChina(106),threepointsinJapan(80)andwasflatinIndia(131)fromthesecondquarter.

Recessionarysentimentincreasedbydouble-digitpercentagepointsinHongKong(+17pp),Malaysia(+16pp),Taiwan(+15pp)andIndonesia(+10pp),andrecessionarysentimentlevelswereamongthehighestinSouthKorea(89%),Malaysia(89%)andTaiwan(88%).

“InHongKong,arecessionarymindsetpermeatedconsumersentimentformorethanhalfofrespondents(56%)asconsumerconfidencedeclineddramaticallyinthethirdquarter,”saidYanXuan,president,NielsenGreaterChina.“Asprivateconsumptiongrowthslowedby2.8%andexportsdroppedby1.3%,laborforcesarefeelingthepainfromtheeconomicslowdown.Additionally,theplungeinstockandcommoditypricesby30%-40%inAugust-Septemberhastakenatoll.”


“InMalaysia,currencydevaluationofatleast25%haspotentiallyimpactedtheperceptionoftheeconomicstrengthofthecountry,whiletheactualimpactintermsofrisingpricesduetoimportcostshasnotyethitconsumers’pockets,”saidRichardHall,countrymanager,NielsenMalaysia.“Theconcernsoverrisingfoodpricesthatwereprevalentinthesecondquarterhavesubsided,andpoliticalstabilityisnowthesecond-highestconcern,asrecenthigh-profiledemonstrationsandpoliticalheadlinesdominatethemedia.”

“Taiwaneseconsumerconfidencedroppeddramaticallyinthethirdquarter,drivenbydouble-digitdeclinesinbothjobprospectsandspendingwillingness,”saidAndyHuang,managingdirector,NielsenTaiwan.“Risingconcernsaboutthecurrenteconomicenvironmentandwork/lifebalanceissuesdominateconsumersentimentinthecountry.Fast-movingconsumergoodsvaluesalesthroughAugust2015remainedflat,andweexpectconsumerspendingtoremainweakintheshort-term.”

“Indianconsumerscontinuetodeclarearesilientoutlookinthefaceofuncertaintyinthebroadereconomy,”saidRooseveltD’Souza,seniorvicepresident,NielsenIndiaRegion.“Whiletheirconfidenceappearstosustainattheprevioushighlevels,thestateoftheeconomy,deficitmonsoonsandvolatilityinthejobmarketareprevailingissuesintheregion.Thatsaid,thebeliefinthefundamentalprospectsofIndia’seconomicfutureappearunshakenandtheproportionofconsumerswhoseebrighterdaysaheadaregrowingandbeingreflectedinanincreaseinvolumegrowthwithinpackagedconsumergoods.Nevertheless,itispossiblethatanyuptickinconsumerspendingismorelikelytobestimulatedbysmartmarketingandasurgeinactivityledbye-commerceplayersasweapproachthefestiveseason.Withasofterinterestratedirection,inflationundercontrolandtheoutlookthattheeconomyislikelytograduallyrevivetopreviouslevelsoverthenext12months,India’sconsumermarketwillcontinuetoworkitswaytowardsamoregradualbuoyancy.”

India

Philippines

Indonesia

Thailand

China

Vietnam

Singapore

HongKong

NewZealand

Australia

Japan

Malaysia

Taiwan

SouthKorea

131

117

116

111

106

105

101

99

94

93

80

78

72

49

Consumer ConFidenCe deClined in 8 oF 14 asia-paCiFiC marKets in Q3


INCREaSE

DECREaSENO ChaNgE

INCREaSE

DECREaSENO ChaNgE

INCREaSE

DECREaSENO ChaNgE

INDExQ3 2015

ChaNgEFROM Q2 2015

0

-5

-4

0

-1

+1

+2

-6

-5

+4

-3

-11

-12

+4


lAtIN AMERICANS CONtINUED tO FAll DEEpER INtO A RECESSIONARy MINDSEt Consumerconfidencedeclinedinfive-of-sevenLatinAmericanmarketsmeasuredinthethirdquarter,withChile(79)reportingthesteepestdropoffiveindexpointsfromthesecondquarter,followedbyArgentina(78)andColombia(90)withdeclinesofthreepointseachandVenezuela(60)withadeclineoftwopoints.Theregion’slargesteconomy,Brazil,declinedtwopointsto79,thefourthconsecutivequarterofdecliningsentimentandthelowestscoreonrecordforthecountry(i.e.,since2005).Conversely,confidenceincreasedtwopointsinMexico(86)andwasflatinPeru(95).

InBrazil,sentimentfortwoconsumerconfidenceindicatorshitnewlows,asjobprospectsentimentdeclinedfivepercentagepointsto18%,andpersonalfinancesentimentdecreasedtwopercentagepointsto54%.Immediatespendingintentionsincreasedsixpercentagepointsto38%.NearlyallBrazilianrespondentsbelievedtheywereinrecession,asthesentimentincreasedtwopercentagepointsto92%fromthesecondquarter.

“ThechallengingeconomicscenarioinBrazilcontinuestodeteriorate,astheslowdowninGDP,increasinginflation,steepcurrencydevaluationandhigherunemploymentratetakeatoll,”saidLuisArjona,countrymanager,NielsenBrazil.“Tocopewiththesituation,householdsaremodifyingconsumptionhabitsbyseekingstoreformatswithcompetitiveprices,choosingheavilypromoteditemsandbuildingupstockathomebybuyingbulkormulti-packproducts.Purchasesofconsumerproductsarenowincreasinglyplanned,asconsumersareactivelymakingrationalchoicestobuyproductswithanattractivecost-benefittradeoffandcuttingsuperfluousitems.”

Regionally,the12-monthoutlookforgood/excellentjobprospectsdeclinedtwopercentagepointsto24%,andpersonalfinancessentimentfelltwopercentagepointsto53%.Immediatespendingintentionsincreasedonepercentagepointto33%.Recessionarysentimentgrewintheregion,risingfrom81%inthesecondquarterto84%inthethirdquarter—thehighestofalltheregions.

Consumer ConFidenCe deClined in 5 oF 7 latin ameriCan marKets in Q3


pERU

vENEzUEla

aRgENTINa

95

78

60

0

-3

-2

MExICO

86+2

bRazIl

79-2

COlOMbIa

90-3

ChIlE

79-5

INCREaSE DECREaSE NO ChaNgE

INDExQ3 2015

ChaNgEFROM Q2 2015


MOROCCO MADE ItS CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DEbUt MoroccomarkeditsfirstintroductiontotheNielsen’sconsumerconfidencesurveyinthethirdquarterwithascoreof85.Aboutfour-in-10respondentsbelievedtheirjobprospects(38%)andpersonalfinances(42%)wouldbegoodorexcellentinthenext12months,andone-thirdwereoptimisticabouttheirimmediatespendingcapacity(33%).Justoverhalf(51%)believedtheircountrywasinarecession.Jobsecurity(28%),theeconomy(23%)andterrorism(19%)werethebiggestconcernsforrespondentsinthecountry.

“Morocco’seconomyhasbeenabletoachieveeconomicgainsinthelastdecadesandisexpectedtoendtheyearwithgrowth,”saidTamerElAraby,managingdirector,NielsenNorthAfrica&Levant.“However,thisgrowthisn’treflectedintheemploymentrates,whichhaven’tincreasedsubstantiallyandwhichremainlowcomparedtoothermarketsintheregion.ThisexplainswhyjobsecurityisamongthebiggestconcernsforMoroccans.”

Regionally,consumerconfidencedecreasedinthree-of-fivecountriesmeasuredintheMiddleEast/AfricaregionbutincreasedfourpointsinSaudiArabia(109)andfivepointsinEgypt(90)inthesecondquarter.At107,theUnitedArabEmirates(UAE)hadthesecond-highestindexintheregion,butitdecreasedonepointfromthesecondquarter—thesecondconsecutivequarterofdeclinesandthelowestscoreforthecountrysince2013.ConfidencedeclinedfivepointsinSouthAfricato82andonepointinPakistanto101.

“InSouthAfrica,adeclineinconfidencewasnotasurprise,asinterestratesincreasedearlyinthequarterandthevalueoftheRandagainsttheU.S.dollartookasteepdrop,”saidAllenBurch,managingdirector,Nielsensub-SaharanAfrica.“Recessionarysentimentalsoincreasedeightpercentagepointsinthethirdquarter,as81%ofSouthAfricanrespondentsbelievedtheircountrywasinarecession.”

Regionally,sentimentaboutimmediatespendingintentionsincreasedtwopercentagepointsto38%,butsentimentaboutpersonalfinancesandjobprospectsdeclinedtwopercentagepointseachto56%and43%,respectively,fromthesecondquarter.RecessionarysentimentimprovedinEgypt(76%)andPakistan(68%)fromthesecondquarter,butworsenedintheUAE(43%),SaudiArabia(48%)andSouthAfrica(81).

INCREaSE DECREaSE NO ChaNgE

INDExQ3 2015

ChaNgEFROM Q2 2015

Consumer ConFidenCe deCreased in three oF Five middle east/aFriCa marKets in Q3


*MoroccowasaddedtotheNielsenGlobal

SurveyinQ32015.

+4

-1

-1

N/A

-5

+5

SaUDI aRabIa

UNITED aRab EMIRaTES

pakISTaN

MOROCCO*

SOUTh aFRICa

EgypT

109

107

101

85

82

90


CONFIDENCE ROSE IN kENyA AND ghANA, bUt DEClINED IN NIgERIAConsumerconfidenceincreasedfiveindexpointsinKenya(117)andfivepointsinGhana(99)inthethirdquarter.Conversely,confidencedecreasedfivepointsinNigeria(127),thesecondconsecutivequarterofdeclines.

“TheconfidencescoreinNigeria,whilestilloverwhelminglypositive,islikelyareflectionofthemorerecent‘moderateeconomicoutlook’drivenbycurrencydevaluation,risingoilprices,foodinflation,anddwindlingconsumerdisposableincome,”saidAllenBurch.“Thishasledtore-prioritizationofwhereconsumersspendmoney,withagreaterfocusonstaplefoodsandbasicnecessitiesandsavingleftoverNairaforarainyday.InKenya,theincreaseinconfidenceisnosurprise,asthetimingofU.S.PresidentObama’svisitlikelyleftpeoplefeelingverypositiveaboutthefuture.BusinesssentimentasmeasuredinNielsen’sAfricaProspectsindicatoralsoshowsKenyaasthetopcountryforbusinessgrowth.”

Kenya,GhanaandNigeriawereaddedtoNielsen’smeasurementofconsumerconfidenceinthefirstquarterof2014usingamobilesurveymethodology,whichdiffersfromtheonlinemethodologyusedtoreportconsumerconfidenceandspendingintentionsfortheother61countriesoutlinedinthisreport.Assuch,thesethreesub-SaharanAfricanmarketsarenotincludedintheglobalorMiddleEast/Africaaveragesdiscussedthroughoutthisreport.

TheoutlookforjobsincreasedinGhanaandKenya,risingthreeandtwopercentagepoints,respectively,fromthesecondquarter.Likewise,sentimentforpersonalfinancesandimmediatespendingintentionsalsoincreasedinbothcountries.SeventypercentofKenyarespondentsand67%ofGhanarespondentsbelievedthestateoftheirpersonalfinancesweregoodorexcellent,upthreeandfourpercentagepoints,respectively.Conversely,sentimentforallthreeindicatorsdeclinedinNigeria,withimmediatespendingintentionsdecliningeightpercentagepointsto48%inthethirdquarter.


Themajorityofrespondentsinthethreecountriessaidtheydidnothavesparecash(68%inGhana,63%inKenyaand60%inNigeria),levelsthatdecreasedinGhanaandKenyabutincreasedinNigeriafromthesecondquarter.Amongthosewhodidclaimdiscretionaryfunds,savingcontinuedtobeapriorityforthemajority:77%inGhana,87%inKenyaand80%inNigeriaplantoputmoneyintosavingsaccounts.Discretionaryspendingintentionsforhomeimprovementprojectswerethesecond-biggestpriorityamongrespondentsinallthreecountries.

Q3 2015Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015


Sub-SaharanAfricacountriesuseamobilemethodolgy

ghANA9997

10299

94

kENyA

117

105

113

104

112

NIgERIA127

123127 129 132

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN NIGERIA AND KENYA

ConsuMer ConfidenCe index


MaRkET INTERNET pENETRaTION

Australia 94%

China 47%

HongKong 81%

India 20%

Indonesia 28%

Japan 86%

Malaysia 67%

NewZealand 95%

Philippines 41%

Singapore 80%

South Korea 92%

Taiwan 80%

Thailand 30%

Vietnam 44%

MaRkET MObIlE pENETRaTION*

Ghana 99%

Kenya 68%

Nigeria 64%

COUNTRIES IN ThE STUDy

ASIA-pACIFIC


Egypt 53%

Morocco 61%

Pakistan 15%

SaudiArabia 67%

SouthAfrica 52%

UnitedArabEmirates

96%

MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA

Source:InternetWorldStats,June30,2014


Canada 95%

U.S. 87%

NORTH AMERICA

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

EUROpE


Austria 87%

Belgium 90%

Bulgaria 59%

Croatia 71%

CzechRepublic 78%

Denmark 97%

Estonia 83%

Finland 97%

France 83%

Germany 87%

Greece 60%

Hungary 75%

Ireland 79%

Israel 76%

Italy 59%

Latvia 75%

Lithuania 69%

Netherlands 96%

Norway 95%

Poland 67%

Portugal 65%

Romania 51%

Russia 61%

Serbia 65%

Slovakia 82%

Slovenia 76%

Spain 75%

Sweden 95%

Switzerland 89%

Turkey 57%

U.K. 90%

Ukraine 42%


LATIN AMERICA

Argentina 75%

Brazil 54%

Chile 67%

Colombia 62%

Mexico 49%

Peru 42%

Venezuela 50%

*Basedonmobilehandsetsdividedbypopulation.Source:CIAWorldFactbook,2012


abOUT ThE NIElSEN glObal SURvEy TheNielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidenceandSpendingIntentionswasconductedAug.10-Sept.4,2015andpolledmorethan30,000onlineconsumersin61countriesthroughoutAsia-Pacific,Europe,LatinAmerica,theMiddleEast/AfricaandNorthAmerica.ThesampleincludesInternetuserswhoagreedtoparticipateinthissurveyandhasquotasbasedonageandsexforeachcountry.ItisweightedtoberepresentativeofInternetconsumersbycountry.Becausethesampleisbasedonthosewhoagreedtoparticipate,noestimatesoftheoreticalsamplingerrorcanbecalculated.However,aprobabilitysampleofequivalentsizewouldhaveamarginoferrorof±0.6%atthegloballevel.ThisNielsensurveyisbasedonlyonthebehaviorofrespondentswithonlineaccess.Internetpenetrationratesvarybycountry.Nielsenusesaminimumreportingstandardof60%Internetpenetrationoranonlinepopulationof10millionormoreforsurveyinclusion.TheChinaConsumerConfidenceIndexiscompiledfromaseparatemixedmethodologysurveyamong3,500respondentsinChina.Thesub-SaharanAfricancountriesinthisstudyarecompiledfromaseparatemobilemethodologysurveyamong1,600respondentsinGhana,KenyaandNigeria.TheNielsenGlobalSurvey,whichincludestheGlobalConsumerConfidenceIndex,wasestablishedin2005.

abOUT NIElSEN NielsenHoldingsplc(NYSE:NLSN)isaglobalperformancemanagementcompanythatprovidesacomprehensiveunderstandingofwhatconsumerswatchandbuy.Nielsen’sWatchsegmentprovidesmediaandadvertisingclientswithTotalAudiencemeasurementservicesforalldevicesonwhichcontent-video,audioandtext-isconsumed.TheBuysegmentoffersconsumerpackagedgoodsmanufacturersandretailerstheindustry’sonlyglobalviewofretailperformancemeasurement.ByintegratinginformationfromitsWatchandBuysegmentsandotherdatasources,Nielsenalsoprovidesitsclientswithanalyticsthathelpimproveperformance.Nielsen,anS&P500company,hasoperationsinover100countries,coveringmorethan90%oftheworld’spopulation.

Formoreinformation,visitwww.nielsen.com.

Copyright©2015TheNielsenCompany.Allrightsreserved.NielsenandtheNielsenlogoaretrademarksorregisteredtrademarksofCZT/ACNTrademarks,L.L.C.Otherproductandservicenamesaretrademarksorregisteredtrademarksoftheirrespectivecompanies.15/9324

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE - Nielsen · • The U.S. posted the biggest quarterly consumer confidence...

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