Conference Abstract

2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS 2017)

2017 2nd International Conference on Reliability Engineering (ICRE 2017)

December 20-22, 2017

Milan, Italy

Conference Venue: Politecnico di Milano (Leonardo Campus) Piazza Leonardo da Vinci, 32 20133 Milano - Italy

Supported by

3

Preface

ICSRS 2017 is the second international conference on system reliability and safety. The

conference, held in Milan, Italy, in December 2017, provides a forum for scientific and

technical advances in the theory and practice of System Reliability and Safety. It is a highly

selective, single-track meeting based on technical submissions presenting significant, original,

and previously unpublished scientific research and technical developments for industrial

application. Many researchers and practitioners present and discuss their advancements in the

fields of System Reliability and Safety, on topics like Advanced Sensors, Health Monitoring,

Fault Detection, Fault Diagnostics, Fault Prognostics, Prognostics and Health Management,

Condition-Based Maintenance, Predictive Maintenance, Maintenance Decision Support,

Maintenance and Human and Organizational Factors, Big Data and IoT Applications in

Reliability and Maintenance, Design Optimization Using Reliability and Maintenance

Techniques, Business Models for Reliability and Maintenance Equipment, Human Reliability,

Life Data Analysis, Discrete Event Modeling & Simulation, Resilience Engineering, Risk

Assessment, Risk Management, with applications in industries like Aeronautics, Aerospace,

Automotive, Chemical and Process Industry, Information Technology and Telecommunications,

Manufacturing, Maritime Industry, Nuclear Industry, Oil & Gas Industry, Structural

Engineering, Electronics, Energy, Health Care.

The conference is The conference is supported by IEEE Reliability-Italian Section, Laboratory

of Signal and Risk Analysis (LASAR) – Politecnico di Milano, Italy Politecnico di Milano

(Italy), Chair on Systems Science and the Energetic challenge, European Foundation for New

Energy-EDF, Ecole Centrale ParisSupelec (France), European Safety and Reliability

Association (ESRA), Center for REsilience and Safety of Critical Infrastructures (CRESCI),

Beihang University (China) , ARAMIS Srl.

The proceedings of ICSRS 2017 consist of 92 selected papers. The papers are accepted after a

selective peer-review based on the coherence of the topic with the Conference themes and on

the content and quality of the work contained. This Conference Proceedings compile the

accepted papers into this conference proceedings, which represent an important collection of

information on the latest international achievements and developments in the fields of System

Safety and Reliability: these should serve as a good base for inspiration for further

advancements and developments.

On behalf of the organizing committee, I express my heartfelt gratitude to the participants for

their outstanding contributions, to committee members and reviewers for their great

professionalism and efforts and to the sponsors for their valuable contributions support to this

successful conference.

Prof. Enrico Zio Chair on Systems Science and the Energetic Challenge, Foundation Electricité de France (EDF)

Laboratoire Génie Industriel, CentraleSupélec, Université Paris-Saclay

Dipartimento di Energia - Politecnico di Milano

4

Instructions for Oral Workshop

Note: The time arrangement is for reference only. Authors are invited to introduce

themselves to session chairs before your session starts.

Devices Provided by the Conference Organizer:

Laptops (with MS-Office & Adobe Reader)

Projectors & Screen

Laser Sticks

Materials Provided by the Presenters:

PowerPoint or PDF files

Poster Presentation: A1 Size, Portrait Direction

Please copy your slide file to the desktop before session starts

During your poster session, the author should stay by the poster to explain and discuss it

with interested audience.

Duration of Each Presentation:

Regular Oral Session: about 15 Minutes of Presentation including Q&A.

Keynote Speech: 40 Minutes of Presentation including Q&A.

14

Day 1, Wednesday, December 20, 2017

Arrival and Registration

<Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32 - Edificio 3 - Floor: Terra>

14:00pm - 17:00pm Arrival and Registration < Aula De Donato >

Day 2, Thursday, December 21, 2017

Speeches & Authors’ Presentations

08:40am-08:45am

< Aula De Donato > Opening Remarks

Prof. Enrico ZIO, Politecnico di Milano, Italy

08:45am - 09:25am

< Aula De Donato >

Keynote Speech 1

Prof. TANG Loon Ching,

National University of Singapore, Singapore

Speech Title: Systems Resilience: A

Unifying Framework and Associated

Statistical Analysis

09:25am – 10:05am

< Aula De Donato >

Keynote Speech 2

Prof. Enrico ZIO,

Politecnico di Milano, Italy

CentraleSupélec, Paris

Speech Title: Risk Science and

Engineering in Industry 4.0

10:05am-10:25am Group Photo & Coffee Break

10:25am-11:05am

< Aula De Donato >

Keynote Speech 3

Prof. Yi Ding,

Zhejiang University, China

Speech Title: Reliability of Electric

Power Systems with High

Penetration of Smart Demand

Aggregation

15

11:05am-11:35am

< Aula De Donato >

Plenary Speech 1

Prof. Francesca Saglietti,

University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany

Speech Title: Testing for Fault

Detection and for Reliability

Assessment: from Classical Software

Engineering to Robot Cooperation

11:50am-14:00pm Lunch Time < Aula Catering Delta 2 >

Afternoon Sessions

14:00pm-14:20pm

< Aula De Donato >

Invited Speech 1

Assoc. Prof. Rong Pan,

Arizona State University, USA

Speech Title: Design and Analysis

of Accelerated Life Tests with

Constrained Randomization

Topic: Reliability Modeling and Analysis

< Aula De Donato > Reliability Modeling and Analysis---Session1-A

(14:00pm-17:25pm)

< Aula Castigliano> Reliability Modeling and Analysis---Session1-B

(14:00pm-17:25pm)

< Aula Beltrami >

Reliability Modeling and Analysis---Session1-C

(14:00pm-17:40pm)

15:50pm-16:10pm Poster Session & Coffee break

Starting at 18:00pm Dinner Time

16

Day 3, Friday, December 22, 2017

08:30am-09:10am

< Aula De Donato >

Keynote Speech 1

Prof. Emanuele Borgonovo,

Bocconi Business School, Milano

Speech Title: Reliability Importance

Measures

09:10am-09:40am

< Aula De Donato >

Plenary Speech 1

Prof. Jin Wang,

Liverpool John Moores University, UK

Speech Title: Evidential Reasoning

Rule and its Application to Safety and

Reliability Assessment

09:40am-09:50am Coffee break

09:50am-10:10am

< Aula De Donato >

Invited Speech 1

Prof. Xiaoping Du,

Missouri University of Science and Technology,USA

Speech Title: System Reliability

Prediction with Outsourced Components

09:50am-10:10am

< Aula Castigliano>

Invited Speech 2

Prof. Michael Todinov,

Oxford Brookes University, UK

Speech Title: Stochastic Pruning

and Its Application for Fast Estimation

of the Production Availability of

Complex Repairable Networks

Topic: Maintenance Engineering

< Aula De Donato > Maintenance Engineering---Session2-A

(09:50am-12:10pm)

< Aula Castigliano> Maintenance Engineering---Session2-B

(09:50am-12:10pm)

< Aula Beltrami >

Maintenance Engineering---Session2-C

(09:50am-12:05pm)

12:10am-13:30pm Lunch Time < Aula Catering Delta 2 >

Afternoon Sessions

17

Topic: Risk Assessment and Safety Management

< Aula De Donato > Risk Assessment and Safety Management ---Session 3-A

(13:30pm-15:45pm )

< Aula Castigliano > Risk Assessment and Safety Management ---Session 3-B

(13:30pm-16:00pm )

< Aula Beltrami > Risk Assessment and Safety Management ---Session 3-C

(13:30pm-16:00pm )

59

Presentation Quick Review Oral Presentation

Reliability Modeling and Analysis---SESSION 1-A December 21, 2017/14:00pm-17:25pm

< Aula De Donato > PP. 18-22

R28 A Unified Expression of Gompertz and Logistic Curves and Its Discretization

R103 Dynamic reliability by means of measurements data modeling approach and mathematical

modeling approach

R104 Numerical simulation of system dynamical reliability

R96 Preliminary Research of Reactor Protection System Reliability based on Monte Carlo

Methods

R0118-A Tracing the Notion of Reliability in IT Service Management

R0107 Markovian Queue with Multi Stage Service, Finite Capacity and Breakdowns

R0131 Modelling Unexpected Failures with a Hierarchical Bayesian Model

R0109 Analysis of Software Reliability Growth Model under Two Types of Fault and Warranty Cost

R11 myFRAM: an open tool support for the Functional Resonance Analysis Method

R13 Identifying Key Classes of Object-Oriented Software Based on Software Complex Network

R77 A Colored Generalized Stochastic Petri Net Simulation Model for Reliability Evaluation of

Active-active Cloud Data Center Based on IT Infrastructure

Reliability Modeling and Analysis---SESSION 1-B December 21, 2017/14:00pm-17:25pm

< Aula Castigliano > PP.23-27

R0105 Novel Automated Software System for Arcing Simulation in Spacecraft On-Board

Electronics

R39 Failure Mechanism Behavior and Reliability of Non-repairable System with Functional

Dependence

R31-A Towards a Unified Framework for High Reliability Organisations

R33 Reliability Improvements for Automation Systems

R50 Reliability Techniques for MPP SQL Database Product Engineering

R63 Stochastic Programming via Scenario Planning for System Reliability Optimization

R72 Reliability Allocation for Polymer Processing Rheometer Based on Modified Grading

Method

R0124 Fault Tree Analysis of the communication of a fleet formation flight of UAVs

R0116 PM Material Analysis of Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator in Wind Turbines

R19 Reliability analysis of nonrepairable cold-standby system based on the Wiener process

RE06 Towards Generating ECSS-compliant Fault Tree Analysis Results via ConcertoFLA

R23 Stochastic Analysis and Reliability-Cost Optimization of Distributed Generators and Air

Source Heat Pumps

60

Reliability Modeling and Analysis---SESSION 1-C December 21, 2017/14:00pm-17:40pm

< Aula Beltrami > PP. 28-32

R91-A The naked truth about stereo vision based driver assistance systems

R21 Accelerated Acceptance Sampling Plan with Asymmetrical Information

R26 Investigation of Reliability and Fault Tolerance of Multiphase Traction Electric Motor

Supplied with Multi Power Source based on Lz-transform

R90 Analysis of the time between failures of aircrafts

RE201 On circular m-consecutive-k,l-out-of-n:Fsystems

R54 A tri-level programming model based on tsPSO for cabin layout selection in civil airlines

R55 Handling Epistemic Uncertainty in Fault Trees: New proposal Based on Evidence Theory and

Kleene Ternary Decision Diagrams

R0112 Availability Checking of Dynamic Spatial Information for Automobiles

R0101 Epistemic Uncertainty Propagation in a Weibull Environment for a Two-Core System-on-Chip

R29 A New Routing Selection Method Considering Network Capacity and Path cost

R68 Optimization of code lines and time of access to information through object-relational mapping

(ORM) using alternative tools of connection to Database Management Systems (DBMS)

R101 Current Doubler Rectifier for Arc Welding Machines with A Phase-Shift ZVS Three-Level

DC-DC Converter

R87 Reliability modelling and assessment by joint consideration of Petri nets and Gamma

deterioration processes

Maintenance Engineering ---SESSION 2-A December 22, 2017/09:50am-12:10pm

< Aula De Donato > PP. 35-38

RE12 Practical method for estimating lifetime information of newly developed product

RE16 Maintenance of buildings: Italian examples of deviations between planned and incurred costs

R70 Improvement of traffic percolation based on bottlenecks

RE07 Qualitative study on maintenance management in Moroccan industries

RE09 Opportunities of Impact of Project Management Practices on Implementing Management

systems: Qualitative Study of Moroccan Companies

RE19 A bi-objective model for optimizing replacement time of age and block policies with

consideration of spare parts‘ availability

R14 Combined Fuzzy TOPSIS and AHP-based methodology for the prioritization of maintenance

key performance indicators: application to an oil refinery plant

R32 Reliability-centered Asset Management of Wind Turbines – A holistic Approach for a

Sustainable and Cost-optimal -Maintenance Strategy

61

Maintenance Engineering ---SESSION 2-B December 22, 2017/09:50am-12:10pm

< Aula Castigliano > PP. 39-42

R56 Prognostics of Onboard Electrohydraulic Servomechanisms: Proposal of a Novel

Model-Based Fault Detection Neural Technique

R20 Digitalisation of Maintenance

R86 A fleet-level selective maintenance model for long-distance highway transportation

considering stochastic repair quality

R0126 Maximum likelihood ensemble filter state estimation for power systems fault diagnosis

R60 Neuro-Fuzzy System Identification for Remaining Useful Life of Electrolytic Capacitors

R99 A Study on the Estimation of Bearing Life of Electric Motor Using ISO 281 and Accelerated

Life Test

R48 A Computational Intelligence Method to Estimate Capacitance Loss of Electrolytic

Capacitors based on Equivalent Series Resistance

R89 Model ensemble-based prognostic framework for fatigue crack growth prediction

Maintenance Engineering ---SESSION 2-C December 22, 2017/09:50am-12:05pm

< Aula Beltrami > PP. 43-46

R0103 Applying cognitive computing to maintainer-collected data

R71-A Accelerated life testing of complex network

R36 Physics-Based Predictive Assessment and Domination of Uncertainties

RE10 Steel Bar Corrosion Monitoring Based on Encapsulated Piezoelectric Sensors

R73 Vibrational Simulation Analysis for an Audio System of Automobiles

RE13 Effect of Tooth Profile Modification on Wear in Internal Gears

R74 Thermal Simulation Analysis for an Audio System of Automobiles

R09 Uncertainty-Based Test Planning Using Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence

R108 A Dynamic Weighting Ensemble Approach for Wind Energy Production Prediction

Risk Assessment and Safety Management ---SESSION 3-A December 22, 2017/13:30pm-15:45pm

< Aula De Donato > PP. 47-50

R76 The First Function Of Engineering Management: Planning

R0120 Audit of ageing management in plants at major accident hazard

R0113 Vulnerability Analysis of Storage Elements inHLS-Generated Designs using High-Level

Profiling

R0117 Optimizing the Resilience of Interdependent Infrastructure Systems against Intentional

Attacks

62

R88 Evaluation of FPGA Design Tools for Safety Systems with on-Chip Redundancy Referring

to the Standard IEC 61508

R92 Toward a reliable main engine lubricating oil system for a safe operation of autonomous ship

R43 An Ontological Approach to Identify the Causes of Hazards for Safety-Critical Systems

R0102 A Framework for Multi-Hazards Risk Aggregation Considering Risk Model Maturity Levels

R0104-A A Bayesian approach for dynamic portfolio optimization of safety barriers

Risk Assessment and Safety Management ---SESSION 3-B December 22, 2017/13:30pm-16:00pm

< Aula Castigliano > PP. 51-54

R10 System Reliability-redundancy Allocation by Evolutionary Computation

R65 Barrier Status Panel - Tool For Barrier Management

RE01 Probabilistic Framework for Product Design Optimization and Risk Management

RE15 QUANTIFICATION OF SAFETY OF CYCLING TRANSPORT

R80 Quantification and compensation of systematic errors in pressure measurements applied to oil

pipelines

R0130 A Hybrid Monte Carlo and Possibilistic Approach to Estimate Non-Suppression Probability

in Fire Probabilistic Safety Analysis

R22 Mechanical integrity for atmospheric tanks

R0127 Task human reliability analysis for a safe operation of autonomous ship

R93 Modeling and Analysis of Cluster of Failures in Redundant Systems

R0125 Locating distribution power system fault employing Bayes Theorem with Subjective Logic

Risk Assessment and Safety Management ---SESSION 3-C December 22, 2017/13:30pm-16:00pm

< Aula Beltrami > PP. 55-58

R30 PASSIVE SYSTEM RELIABILITY ESTIMATIOIN WITH THE ACCIDENT

DEVELOPMENT

R49 An ethological experiment to improve airport security gate process reliability: Understanding

time perception and personal awareness of older adult passengers

R0128 A Benchmark of Dynamic Reliability Methods for Probabilistic Safety Assessment

R38 Resilience Analytics of Networks with Dependency Groups

R12 DISCOVER PARTIALLY COPIED WEB VIDEOS

R52 Adaptive Artificial Neural Networks for Seismic Fragility Analysis

R07 Power Management on Aircraft: Flight-Phase-Dependent Network Design For Electrical

Networks with Limited Resources

R42 Four-Layer Wrist Worn Device for Sound level and Hazardous Gases Environmental

Monitoring

R45 The energy management and optimization strategy for fuel cell hybrid ships

R37 Analysis of the effect of mass events on car traffic in the city in the daily interval

63

Conference Venue

Politecnico di Milano (Leonardo Campus)

Piazza Leonardo da Vinci, 32 20133 Milano – Italy

How to reach the classroom OSVALDO DE DONATO

Milano - Milano Città Studi - Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32 - Edificio 3 - Floor: Terra

64

How to reach the classroom CASTIGLIANO

Milano - Milano Città Studi - Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32 - Edificio 5 - Floor: Terra

How to reach the classroom BELTRAMI

Milano - Milano Città Studi - Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32 - Edificio 5 - Floor: Terra