COMRES GE2015 POLLINGPRESENTATION TO BPC / MRS INQUIRY

19 JUNE 2015

Tom Mludzinski, Head of Political PollingAndy White, Head of Innovation

COMRES TELEPHONE POLLS OCT. ‘14 TO MAY ‘15

3028

2931

3435

3634

3635 35 35

3031

3230

32

35

3233

32

35

3234

9 9

12

8 8 89

12

87

9 9

1918

1617

13

1012 12

1011

1412

4

75

78

65

45

64 4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Oct/2014 Nov/2014 Dec/2014 Jan/2015 Feb/2015 Mar/2015 Apr/2015

Base: ComRes telephone polls, c.1,000 each wave

COMRES TELEPHONE POLLS OCT. ‘14 TO MAY ’15(3 WAVE MOVING AVERAGE)

4%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Dec/2014 Jan/2015 Feb/2015 Mar/2015 Apr/2015

Base: ComRes telephone polls, c.1,000 each wave

29

31

18

10

5

35

34

12

85

CAMPAIGN “POLL OF POLLS”

4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

29-Apr 30-Apr 01-May 02-May 03-May 04-May 05-May 06-May 07-May

Base: All published polls during campaign period, excluding those by ComRes

FINAL POLL AGAINST THE RESULT

5

ComRes Final Call*

Actual Result (GB)

Difference

Conservative 35% 37.7% +2.7

Labour 34% 31.1% -2.9

Lib Dem 9% 8.0% -1.0

UKIP 12% 12.9% +0.9

Green 4% 3.8% -0.2

Other 6% 6.4% +0.4

AVERAGE: ±1.3

*Interviewing ended 8pm on 6th MayBase: Telephone poll of 1,007 GB adults 5-6 May 2015 for Daily Mail / ITV News

SAMPLING & WEIGHTING

HOW COMRES CONDUCTED GE2015 POLLING

Sample- Telephone- Purchased randomly generated sample- Started with a sample balance of 85% landline, 15% mobile- Completed survey sample was c.20% mobile- Quotas on age, gender, region, social grade

48%

48%

48.7%

52%

52%

51.3%

Final poll

Campaign average

TargetsMen Women

QUOTAS CLOSELY MET

8

9%

10%

11.7%

17%

15%

17.2%

16%

16%

16.70%

18%

19%

17.90%

16%

17%

14.50%

24%

25%

22%

Final poll

Campaign average

Targets18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

29%

29%

27%

30%

30%

28%

20%

18%

22%

21%

23%

24%AB C1 C2 DE

9%

8%

8.70%

5%

4%

4.2%

11%

11%

11.4%

9%

9%

8.6%

9%

9%

9.0%

8%

7%

7.4%

5%

5%

5.0%

9%

10%

9.5%

13%

14%

13.3%

12%

15%

14.1%

9%

9%

8.8%

Scot. N.East N.West Y&H W.Mids E.Mids

Wales East Lon. S.East S.West

Base: Telephone poll of 1,007 GB adults 5-6 May 2015 for Daily Mail / ITV News

34% 34% 9% 12% 5% 5%Initial turnout

weights

35% 34% 9% 12% 4% 5%Final turnout

weights

34% 35% 9% 12% 4% 5%Past voteweights

38% 33% 8% 10% 5% 5%Unweighted

Con Lab LD

THE WEIGHTING ON THE FINAL POLL

9

Final Poll

34% 34% 8% 13% 5% 5%Demog weights

Base: Telephone poll of 1,007 GB adults 5-6 May 2015 for Daily Mail / ITV News

THE COMRES REVIEW

37.7%

35%

37%

31.1%

34%

32%

8.0%

9%

8%

12.9%

12%

12%

3.8%

4%

5%

4.8%

5%

5%

Result (GB)

Final ComRes poll (6th May)

Final ComRes poll - PM squeeze

Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP

“SQUEEZING” BY PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER

“PM Squeeze” – same interviews as final published poll, but reassigning “Don’t knows” to party of respondents’ choice for best Prime Minister, rather than to party they most identify with.

Base: Telephone poll of 1,007 GB adults 5-6 May 2015 for Daily Mail / ITV News

A FORWARD LOOKING DURABLE SOLUTION

TURNOUT VS. 10/10 IN 2015 AND 2010

13

2015 Turnout 2015 Final Poll10/10

2010 Turnout 2010 Final Poll10/10

65%70%

66%

78%

CONSTITUENCY RESULTS – TURNOUT (AGE)

14

R² = 0.1917

50.00%

55.00%

60.00%

65.00%

70.00%

75.00%

80.00%

35 40 45 50 55 60

Turn

out

Average age of constituency population

15

R² = 0.3671

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

40 50 60 70 80

Turn

out

% of C2DE in constituency

C2DE

R² = 0.3671

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

40 50 60 70 80

Turn

out

% of ABC1 in constituency

ABC1

CONSTITUENCY RESULTS – TURNOUT (SEG)

COMRES VOTER TURNOUT MODEL AT GE2015

Base: Telephone poll of 1,007 GB adults 5-6 May 2015 for Daily Mail / ITV News

37.7%

35%

36%

31.1%

34%

31%

8.0%

9%

10%

12.9%

12%

12%

3.8%

4%

5%

6.0%

6%

6%

Result (GB)

Final ComRes poll

Final poll adjusted forCVTM

Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others

“ADJUSTED TREND”

4%

38 3837

3637

36

3129

32

29 2931

910

910 10 1010

910

1214

12

46 6

75 5

Mar/2015 Apr/2015

Base: ComRes telephone polls, c.1,000 each wave, adjusted for the ComRes Likely Voter Model

• Systematic overstatement of Labour, understatement of Conservatives• UKIP, Lib Dems, SNP and Greens largely accurate

• Little evidence of dramatic late swing

• Unlikely to be one size fits all fix across the industry

• General Public sample is not the key issue• Need to improve way of identifying the voting public

• Constantly monitoring methods and available evidence• ComRes has worked hard ever since GE2015 to understand what went wrong and

how to move forward. Have been open about review and potential fixes• Not just about getting 2015 final polls correct, but looking to future• Looking forward to cooperating fully and working towards a speedy resolution

FINAL THOUGHTS

18