Computer-aided Business Case Assessment in … · Computer-aided Business Case ... • Analysis...

Dr Askin T. IsikverenDirector, MSc Integrated Aerospace Systems DesignDirector, Engineering Design Degree ProgrammeDepts of Aerospace Engineering & Engineering Mathematics email: [email protected] & [email protected]

Computer-aided Business Case Assessment in Engineering Design EducationMarch 2009

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Business Case in Engineering Design EducationGalorath Conference 2009

The Business Case

Ref: VKI Lecture Series A US Perspective on Future Commercial Airplane Design

McMasters, 2005

• In all engineering initiativesthe only acceptable basis forlaunching a [product] development programmeis one in which low risk, high ROI and shortestpossible timeline is secured

• Up to 80% of the life-cycle costof most high valued-added engineeredproducts is incurred during the conceptualdesign phase

• By the time completion of the design and development stage occurs 95% of the product cost is fixed and most of the development cost is spent

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• Are categorised by:– Long investment periods– Outgoings over many years– Income over many years– Large and frequent expenditures– Significant risk factors

• It requires:– Annual Cash flows over many years– An account for the time effect on the value of money– Determination of the value of the investment in terms of today’s

Money – NPV– The return needs to be compared to the fixed return of the other

investment to determine which is most suitable

Complex Investment Decisions

Decrease net cash outflow

Create Positive cash flow earlier

Increase net cash inflow

Decrease net cash outflow

Create Positive cash flow earlier

Increase net cash inflow

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SEER-H Software: Why is it useful?• Used widely in industry – US DoD, Boeing (e.g. the AH-

64A Apache Rotorcraft), Ford, Northrop Grumman• Provides development,

production, operations andsupport estimates for systems and sub-systems(also estimate integration costs)

• Can input detailed part information, such as complexity or finishing details, to improve estimate

Business case can now be coupled into the multi-objective optimisation problem “best and balanced design”

Business case can now be coupled into the multi-objective optimisation problem “best and balanced design”

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• Aerospace Vehicle Design & Systems Integration 3F/4F– Each Group (10-12 members) is required to carry out the design

of a complete aircraft to the given Design Specification– The study is competitive with each Group attempting to produce

the “best, balanced design”

• Support– Each Group has a academic advisor– General support is given by a team of

active and retired externals

• Duration– The project is 16 contact weeks, spanning early-Oct to mid-Feb

Engineering Design Education:AEROSPACE Group Design Project

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The Greener By Design committee have proposed that instead of flying long distance routes non-stop, significant fuel savings could be achieved by flying these routes as two or more shorter flights, stopping en-route to refuel. The purpose of this task is to designa passenger aircraft to compete against mid-sized non-stop, long-range aircraft, but optimised formulti-stop operations, and hence ashorter design range requirement.The aircraft must meet the regulatory,economic and environmental needsof operators for an intendedEntry into Service date of 2020.

UB2009F Project Brief

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UB2009F Project Competitors

B757-300 B767-300 A330-200

B787-8 A350-800

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UB2009F Project Low-risk, Low-cost Option

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UB2009F Student Project Proposals

GRP 1F

GRP 3F GRP 4F

GRP 2F

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GRP 2F Family of Aircraft

Range (nm)

Passen

gers

300‐

250‐

200‐

3200 nm range300/406 passengers148 T MTOW



Range (nm)

Passen

gers

300‐

250‐

200‐




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GRP 2F Final Design Resultsvs. UB2009 (LHR‐SIN)

vs. VX250 (LHR‐SIN)

Noise = ‐51%Noise = ‐51% CO2= ‐13%CO2= ‐13%

NOx= ‐21%NOx= ‐21%

Block Fuel= ‐15%Block Fuel= ‐15%COC = ‐9%COC = ‐9%

CO2= ‐8%CO2= ‐8%

NOx= ‐5%NOx= ‐5%

Block Fuel = ‐5%Block Fuel = ‐5%

Block Time = +18%Block Time = +18%

COC = ‐21%COC = ‐21%

Noise = ‐60%Noise = ‐60%

DOC = ‐2%DOC = ‐2%

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GRP 2F Modelling Input • Equipment Type

• Application

• Platform

• Acquisition Category

• Weight

• Material Composition

• Quantity

• Mean Time Between Failure (electrical components)

Output • Development Cost

• Production Cost

• Equipment Support Cost

• System Level Cost

• Development Labour Hours

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GRP 2F Modelling Results

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GRP 2F Modelling Results

• Viridis aircraft were designed with:– Common wing, empennage, undercarriage and engines– SEER-H software was used to calculate the product development cost if

there was no family commonality and it was found that:• V200 production unit cost of V200 was reduced by 5.4% and V300 by 4.1%

– Breakeven analysis was also carried out using SEER-H software• Analysis shows the return can be boosted USD4B if family commonality exists

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GRP 2F Scope-Schedule Planning

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The Engineering Design Degree Programme

• Future Leaders of Multi-disciplinary [Large-scale] Engineering Projects

• How?– Capture a broad “systems architect” understanding –

engineering, business, social/environmental issues– Foster excellent communication skills– Acquire experience in working in multi-disciplinary teams– Specialist competence in one sub-discipline of Engineering– Gain experience in applied and practical engineering

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Engineering Design: Industrial Partners

• GE Aviation Propellers & Avionics• Galorath as “Software Partner”

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Engineering Design Education:ENGINEERING DESIGN Industrial Group Projects• A genuine ‘back-burner’ issue that needs resolution• Multi-disciplinary team with headcount of 5 students• Compatible with the man-power, computing and workshop

resources of the University• Spend limit of £2,000 from the University plus support

from the Industrial Sponsor• Two-year timescale

– First year emphasis on design candidates for down-select, experiments rigs and/or modelling/simulation tools

– Second year focuses on detailed design, integration, optimisation and business case

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Y0102 Cohort: Completed Y0506 (inaugural)• Motorola: Robotic Security Guard

– Robotic investigator able to navigate autonomously around a mapped environment, log and avoid obstacles, and identify objects of interest

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Y0203 Cohort: Completed Y0607• Arup: Redeveloping Blackfriars Station

– Innovative redevelopment of existing Blackfriars Railway Station into a transport interchange ready for the increased growth demands

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Y0304 Cohort: Completed Y0708• Airbus UK: Multi-modal Freight Hub

– Feasibility and preliminary design of a multi-modal freight hub at the former RAF base at Lyneham

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Group Industrial Projects Completion Y0809• Arup: Elevated Ride / Transport System between

mainland and Lulu Island in Abu Dhabi

• Babcock: Mechanical Handling System for Nuclear Waste Flasks

• GE Aviation: Novel Propeller Pitch Change Mechanism for Open Rotor Aero Engine

• HP Labs: Personal Eco Footprint Reduction System

• Motorola: Hydro Pico Generator for Mobile Phone Base Station

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• Project Objective To reduce the cost of ILW interim storage facilities by simplifying the mechanical handling of waste and considering different methods of storage

• Problems with current method: – Increased final volume of waste – containers are still extremely

radioactive– Storage facilities very expensive

• Solution advantages:– Volume reduction techniques,

such as vitrification– Dispense with complicated mechanical

handling systems – Less expensive storage facilities – Designed for low cost production

BABCOCK: Nuclear Waste Flask

Current ILW Storage Process

Standardised packageexterior

Standardised shielded lid

Variable Steel shot concrete shielding

Waste liner

Proposed Shielded Package

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BABCOCK: Nuclear Waste Flask

Project Cost

Time

Large construction cost of storage facility

Overall cost saving

Reduced initial cost

Through Life Cost of an Interim ILW Storage Project

Current Storage Method Storage Using Shielded Containers

• Business case objectives:– Prove total cost of ILW interim storage is reduced– Show reduced yearly expenditure, resolving funding issues

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GE AVIATION [DOWTY]: Open Rotors• Investigate the feasibility

of adopting open-rotorlayout for 150-200 seat,single-aisle aircraft, EISaround 2018

• A TSFC (fuel burn) dropof 25% must be met or exceeded

• The increase in maintenance costs must not exceed the benefit gained from efficiency improvements

• Simple, reliable mechanism for blade pitch change is required

Then…… Now…….

The Easyjet ‘Ecojet’

Jet?

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GE AVIATION [DOWTY]: Open Rotors

No. per Engine

Weight per unit (kg)

Weight per Engine (kg)

Development Cost ($)

Production Cost per unit ($)

Cost per engine ($)

Nacelle 1 200 200 15,600,000 200,000 200,000Engine Core (based on existing tech)

1 2500 2500 318,000,000 5,800,000 5,800,000

Hydraulic Actuators 18 1.2 21.6 2,000,000 1,500 27,000Hydraulic Pump 2 10 20 1,800,000 11,500 23,000Prop Blades 18 10 180 8,500,000 6,500 117,000Electrical Harness 1 10 10 350,000 4,000 4,000Transformer 2 130 260 23,400,000 116,000 232,000System Integration Costs 122,200,000 745,000

Totals 43 3191.6 491,850,000 7,148,000

No. per Engine

Weight per unit (kg)

Weight per Engine (kg)

Development Cost ($)

Production Cost per unit ($)

Cost per engine ($)

Nacelle 1 200 200 15,600,000 200,000 200,000Engine Core (based on existing tech)

1 2500 2500 318,000,000 5,800,000 5,800,000

Hydraulic Actuators 18 1.2 21.6 2,000,000 1,500 27,000Hydraulic Pump 2 10 20 1,800,000 11,500 23,000Prop Blades 18 10 180 8,500,000 6,500 117,000Electrical Harness 1 10 10 350,000 4,000 4,000Transformer 2 130 260 23,400,000 116,000 232,000System Integration Costs 122,200,000 745,000

Totals 43 3191.6 491,850,000 7,148,000

Development (0.8%)

Production (40.5%)

Operating Site (22.5%)

Total Equipment Support(31.2%)

Total System Level Cost(5.0%)

GE UDF Engine Program: Life Cycle Cost Allocation

Chart showing the breakdown of the life cycle cost of ~$48 bil

• Model based on best case of ~400 aircraft orders a year

• Initial engine production cost estimate of $7.1M similar to CFM56 list price of $7.0M

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MOTOROLA: Pico-Hydropower

• Project Objective Design of a pico-hydropower system (under 1.5 kW) to power a mobile telephone base-station in developing countries

• Currently expensive diesel generators are used –renewable power should be cheaper and more environmentally friendly

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• Many conflicting factors– More civil works more reliable water flow smaller system overall– Complex electronic control higher cost but higher system efficiencies– Simplified turbine runner lower cost but reduced efficiency

• Considerations include:– Site Selection– Dam Materials and

Weir Orientation– Turbine Housing– Turbine Runner– Electrical Generator– Battery System

MOTOROLA: Pico-Hydropower

Cost

Performance

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Y0607 Cohort: Completion Y0910 & Y1011• Wind-powered Vehicle – design, build and test a vehicle

to carry one person that can drive directly into the wind

• Submit entries for Aeolus Competition in the Netherlands

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