Comptroller's FY 2020 Preliminary Budget Presentation€¦ · Preliminary FY 2016 Budget “That...

New York City Comptroller Scott M. Stringer @NYCComptroller

Comptroller’s FY 2020 Preliminary Budget

Presentation

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Economic Uncertainty

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© 2019 The Daily Shot. Used with permission.

SOURCE: The Money Show, “VIX QuantCycle Flashing Warning Sign,” Feb. 25, 2019https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/tebiwkly08-50949/vix-quantcycle-flashing-warning-sign/


Important Initiatives in the FY 2020 Preliminary Budget

3-K Expansion Faster Buses LeadFree NYC

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February 2019 Financial Plan Gaps

$92.0 $92.2

$94.3

$96.8

$98.8

$92.0 $92.2

$97.8

$99.8

$102.1

$90.0

$92.0

$94.0

$96.0

$98.0

$100.0

$102.0

$104.0

FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023

($ in

billi

ons) Revenues

$3.3

Expenditures

$2.9

$3.5

4


February 2019 Financial Plan Gaps

$92.0 $92.2

$94.3

$96.8

$98.8

$93.4

$95.4

$97.8

$99.8

$102.1

$90.0

$92.0

$94.0

$96.0

$98.0

$100.0

$102.0

$104.0

FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023

($ in

billi

ons) Revenues

Expenditures

$1.4$3.2

5

$3.3

$2.9

$3.5

Adjusted for Prepayments


NYC agencies put on ‘watch list’ for escalating spending

Comptroller Criticizes Mayor for 'Out Of Control' Homelessness Spending, Limited Agency Savings

“…we will have to grow our budget cushion and a more vigorous agency savings program will be necessary.”

Comptroller Stringer Presents Analysis of New York City’s Preliminary FY 2018 Budget and January Financial Plan

“...But even in good times, we must always be laser-focused on getting the most out of government.

Stringer to urge more savings from de Blasio

“…we need action today to start closing those gaps to ensure that vital services aren’t cut when the next crisis hits…”

A Consistent Message

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Comptroller Stringer Presents Analysis Of New York City’s Preliminary FY 2016 Budget

“That means spending our limited resources in a way that achieves maximum impact…

Feb 2015 Jun 2015 Feb 2016

Feb 2017 Feb 2017 Feb 2018 Feb 2018

Comptroller Stringer Presents Analysis Of New York City’s Preliminary FY 2017 Budget

Comptroller Stringer Releases Analysis of New York City’s Preliminary FY 2019 Budget


Growing Economic Risks

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“The economic stimulus has dissipated pretty quickly, but the deficits will endure.”

Dec 2018

Tax cut investments 'boom' is already over. Some say it never startedJan 2019

A Weakening Global ExpansionJan 2019

Government shutdown begins to harm US economyJan 2019

Fed Signals Hold on Rate IncreasesJan 2019

Chance of a U.S. Recession Up, Number of Fed Rate Hikes Down: Reuters Poll

Feb 2019

Ten years after financial crisis: Is corporate debt the next bubble?Sep 2018


City And State Personal Income Tax Shortfalls

$232 Million

$2.3 Billion

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

City State

($ in

milli

ons)

December 2018/January 2019

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$2,462

$2,462 $2,006

$3,169 $701

$96

$1,280

$376$832

$1,518

$514

$142 $396

$1,407

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019

$2,838

$4,038

$2,945

$3,646$3,742

$4,180

$3,524

Accumulation of the Year-End Budget Surplus($ in millions)

Addition to Prior-Year Surplus Subtraction from Prior-Year Surplus

$4,576

$1,755

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Outyear Gaps Have Grown

$2,185

$1,468 $1,745

N.A.

$3,516

$2,939 $3,296

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023

($ in

milli

ons)

Last Year This Year

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FY 2019 Surplus Relies Heavily on One-Shots

$864.1$234.4

$394.6

$1,475.0

$681.1

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

($ in

milli

ons)

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Revenue Forecast Changes

Debt Service Savings

Citywide Savings Program

Reduce Budgeted Reserves

One-Shots


One-Shots in the FY 2019 Budget

($ in millions)

H+H Prior-Year Reimbursement $371.5

Reduce Categorical Aid Reserve 106.0

Property Sales 118.4

Bank Settlement 85.2TOTAL $681.1

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$2.4B

2.0%

17.8%

9.5%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Perc

ent o

f Adj

uste

d Ex

pend

iture

sCity’s Reserve Cushion Remains Inadequate

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Agencies Can Do More

2.7%

1.0% 0.9%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

May 2008 - May 2013 May 2015 - Feb. 2019 Proposed PEG Program

Agency Savings as Percentage of Agency City Funds Budgeted Spending

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$750 million


$0.0

$2.0

$4.0

$6.0

$8.0

$10.0

$12.0

$14.0

$16.0

FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023

($$

in b

illion

s)

Current Cushion Goal

Set a Target for the Cushion

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11.2%12.0%

13.0%14.0%

15.0%Pct. of Adj. Expenditures


FY 2020 Agency Watch List

HOMELESSNESS DEPT. OF BUILDINGSDEPT. OF CORRECTION

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Agency Watch List: Homeless Services

* As of 02/13/19

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$1.27 Bn$1.47 Bn

$1.81 Bn

$2.37 Bn

$2.76 Bn$2.88 Bn $2.91 Bn

51,770

56,955 57,504

59,435 59,611 60,366*

$0.00 Bn

$0.50 Bn

$1.00 Bn

$1.50 Bn

$2.00 Bn

$2.50 Bn

$3.00 Bn

FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020

Spen

ding

($ in

billi

ons)

Spending Individuals in Shelter


158%

207%

-50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250%

Population

Cost per Detainee

Rate of Violent Incidents

Agency Watch List: Dept. of Correction

Detainee population has fallen

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Cost per detainee has skyrocketed

Number of violent incidents keeps climbing

-36%

Percent Increase, FY 08 - FY18


Agency Watch List: Dept. of Buildings

61.6% 50.9%78.6%

32.3%

252.2%

166.7%

0%

100%

200%

300%

Budget Total Headcount ConstructionInspectors

Constructioninspectionscompleted

Constructionaccidents

Constructionfatalities

Percent Increase FY14 - FY18

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Resources Construction Inspection


Preliminary Ten-Year Capital Strategy

Education/CUNY$23.6

Dept. of Environmental

Protection$19.7

HPD and NYCHA$13.0

DOT / Transit$15.6

Business Services / EDC$3.7

All Other$28.6

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$104.1($ in billions)


Capital Commitment Rate Improved in FY 2018

$9.3 $8.5

$10.9 $12.0

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

$18

$20

FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018

($ in

billi

ons)

Actual Commitments Authorized Commitments

65%57%

71%$14.2

$14.9

$19.2

$16.9

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The Capital Budget is a Black Box

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$104.1 Billion


Improving Accountability in the Capital Budget

Charter Revision Proposals

One capital project per capital budget line

Regular reporting on condition of capital assets

Report on schedule delays and cost overruns

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New York City Comptroller Scott M. Stringer @NYCComptroller24

Comptroller's FY 2020 Preliminary Budget Presentation€¦ · Preliminary FY 2016 Budget “That...

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